Just updated a few percentages.

I decided to run the race out through the rest of the states, I don't know enough about Puerto Rico to make a prediction there yet. Indiana could switch, but the rest seem pretty likely to go as I have them.

Early prediction for the next set of states. I'll make changes if the polls warrant it, but I have a pretty strong feeling that these will be the results.

Well, that sucked last night...

Switched Ohio back to Clinton. Obama doesn't seem to have quite the momentum needed to achieve the upset there. He still seems to be holding the advantage in Texas. I might update one more time before Tuesday. If Obama can win in Texas, I think the nomination is prettymuch guaranteed to go to him.

I decided to go ahead and predict upset victories for Obama in Texas and Ohio. The union endorsements that he's gotten lately will certainly help him in Ohio, and now that he has the opportunity to campaign fully in these states I think his poll numbers will steadily rise. If Edwards endorses him, that will also be a boost, although it seems like he might stay out until after March 4th.

I'll update again later in the month.

Alright, I did some tweaking of the percentages for tomorrow's primaries, and also added predictions for Wisconsin and Hawaii. I'm not ready to predict the March 4th primaries just yet, but I would imagine that Obama is going to have incredible momentum going into them, and if he's lucky he could pull off another sweep. Considering he has the lead in pledged delegate (I hate superdelegates, they just serve to help the establishment) and in funding right now, I don't see Hillary being able to recover from this many consecutive losses.

Well, I've learned two major things from Super Tuesday.

1. Trust Survey USA polling. Apparently they do know what they are doing.

2. Expect Obama to pull off 60-70% margins in caucus states.

Based on the fact that two of the next three states are caucuses and the other is Louisiana, I would expect him to sweep all three on February 9th by large margins. Maine on the 10th is also a caucus, so he should win easily there too. On the 12th, D. C. is a lock for him, based on the voting of African-Americans in the South. Virginia and Maryland hopefully will continue the momentum, but don't be surprised if these flip.

Edit: I just noticed that Survey USA did get Missouri wrong. Still, I would trust them in most instances.

Final prediction before Super Tuesday. Massachusetts is a bit of a hope right now, and California won't be easy either. I don't trust the Survey USA polls that show Clinton with a 12 point lead, they seem to be the anomalous poll group in all of the states, including Connecticut, where they have Obama ahead. Theoretically Obama could win in New Jersey and Delaware, but I find these too unlikely to make part of the prediction. Now all that's left to do is wait.

Well, things are looking more and more promising for Obama as we head into Super Tuesday. Even if things go like I have them laid out, and Obama and Hillary win the same number of states, it'll be an Obama win in the minds of voters simply because he was never expected to do this well. The fact that the race now seems competitive in New Jersey is one of the most impressive developments, considering its right in Hillary's back yard. I suppose Utah should have a higher confidence level, but oh well. I'll probably be back for one final update tomorrow.

Alright, I updated the prediction for the Super Tuesday (or as I like to call it Über-Tuesday). Some of these are hopes or easily flippable, based on the polling data. If Obama can manage to win California, that will help him out enormously. I hope the Ted Kennedy endorsement helps as much as a lot of people are saying it will, but I have a bad feeling it won't. I might update this one more time before Tuesday if I can get some new polling data.

Edit: I guess Alaska should be a higher percantage than I have it. Oops.

Alright, I'm taking a bit of a risk here and hoping for an Obama upset victory. The throwing out of Hillary's lawsuit against the casino caucuses was definitely justified and should be a big help for Obama. Also, since the caucus is on a weekend, I see it as more likely for young voters to get out and caucus. Iowa happened while college was still generally out, so young voters were able to vote there. In New Hampshire a lot of colleges were probably back in session, hurting Obama's support. If he can pull off an upset in Nevada and then hold his lead in South Carolina, Hillary's going to have a tough run in Florida.

One furter note: since this is a caucus and not a primary, there will probably be caucus locations where Edwards does not reach the 15% threshold, and I would expect his supporters in these locations to go to Obama.

Updated Nevada and South Carolina percentages. Nevada could definitely flip, but Hillary seems to be at an advantage. South Carolina should go to Obama, but then again New Hampshire should have as well... I hope I'm wrong about Florida, but I don't think I will be. The rest of the states will come later.

Well, seeing the latest polling, I'm willing to update all of the states that I had predictions on. I've now seen four or five polls that show Obama with leads near or even greater than 40%, so I'm willing to bet that he'll manage to grab at least some of the remaining undecideds and break the 40% mark. Supposedly Obama will also win the endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union, which apparently holds a lot of influence in Nevada. I'm not really familiar with this, but I'll trust the news organizations and assume that it will hurt Hillary - however, I need some new polling data before I make the prediction official. South Carolina now seems to be moving overwhelmingly toward Obama, and I think that after he wins New Hampshire tomorrow that lead will only increase. It seems likely that he might win Florida after that, but I'm not quite willing to call it yet, something big could still happen.

With the race the way it is right now, I'm hesitating to predict anything beyond South Carolina. Once the New Hampshire results come in I'll be willing to give a prediction on Florida and most of the February 5th states. I think Obama is in a great position to win the nomination, as the front-loaded process gives the candidates with the most momentum a greater chance of winning than ever before. Hillary is in trouble: even though her third-place finish in Iowa was by less than 1 percent, that is still much worse than the average American was expecting. I've refused to put a prediction on Michigan since most of the candidates have refused to campaign there; as it stands, only Clinton is on the ballot. New Hampshire might go for Obama by more than 40%, based on some of the recent polling that I've seen, but I'm going to hold off on that call until I see at least one more poll that shows that as possible (Rasmussen and ARG have him at 39% and 38%, respectively). I think Hillary's debate performance might hurt her a bit, she came off as somewhat angry early on, but those kind of things can be somewhat difficult to predict. If Edwards can come in a close third in NH, I could see him taking second in South Carolina, and that would be a death knell for Clinton's campaign.

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