Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Date of Prediction: 2012-04-21 Version:3

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	269
Rep	269
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	208
Rep	217
Ind	0
Tos	113

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-7	-1	-90	22	2	269	-90
Rep	+7	+1	+90	0	0	0	22	2	179	+90
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
76	46	23	5	2

Analysis

After Romney's showing in the primary... and the stubborn actions of the tea-party conservatives that WONT get behind a moderate... I'm moving the moderate voting states into the Obama column. PA, OH, NH, and ME are still questionable.

VA, NC, FL and MO votes are going to go to Romney as anti-Obama votes... but the others aren't going to shift to a new moderate unless the news changes.

I think if Obama does ANYTHING to appeal to centrist causes he can win. IF he doesn't reach over the aisle, he will lose.

At this rate, it'll be up to the House.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	49/56	28/56	77/112	68.8%	1	60	369	T	678
2014 Senate	33/36	15/36	48/72	66.7%	2	51	240	T	382
2012 President	51/56	25/56	76/112	67.9%	3	199	702	T	760
Aggregate Predictions	133/148	68/148	201/296	67.9%

Links

	Presidential Predictions - Most Recent
	Presidential Predictions - Most Recent Comments
	Presidential Predictions Home

Back to 2012 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home