My first change I flip Virginia to leans Romney based on recent polling and reading analysis. New polls from Rasmussen in Nevada Obama +8,, and Marquette in Wisconsin + 9 reinforces my view that Obama is favored in those two states. Would like to see updated polling for Iowa and Pennsylvania. Obama favored in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. Romney in North Carolina and probably Virginia.

My first change I flip Virginia to leans Romney based on recent polling and reading analysis. New polls from Rasmussen in Nevada Obama +8,, and Marquette in Wisconsin + 9 reinforces my view that Obama is favored in those two states. Would like to see updated polling for Iowa and Pennsylvania. Obama favored in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. Romney in North Carolina and probably Virginia.

For the Dems, Indiana is gone. North Carolina will be competitive but tough for Obama to win. Florida is a toss up 50/50. Obama is favored in New Mexio. Nevada and Colorado seem to be leaning towards Obama. Ohio is interesting Obama should be really struggiling here given his trouble with working class white voters, but Romney is less popular with them then Obama, so Obama is slightly favored there. Virginia despite a recent poll that has Romney 2 points ahead I think leans towards Obama. Michigan is going to be tough for the GOP to win as they opposed the auto bailout which is poular here. Wisconsin, I think leans towards Obama.

Pennsylvannia is in play. Obama's numbers here are weaker then either Florida or Ohio, but once again Romney seems to be less popular here. + the Dems have a large advantage in # of registered voters, so I think PA is a slight Dem lean. Iowa is tough to read, no recent public polling, but I think the GOP primary season hurt Obama here, but Romney is not popular here either. This state might be the one true toss up.