Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	281
Rep	257
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	251
Rep	206
Ind	0
Tos	81

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-5	-1	-78	24	2	281	-78
Rep	+5	+1	+78	0	0	0	22	2	179	+78
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

The election is getting pretty close, and it looks like this is where it's heading. Colorado's the closest toss-up.

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 37

It's getting down to it. Not buying that Mitt will be competitive in PA, MI, or MN. I expect Obama to win the PV by about .5%, but take 5/6 swing states.

Version: 36

As the race nears, the focus narrows as it comes down to five swing states. In this map, the popular vote is 49-48 Obama.

The electoral college benefits Obama here, as Ohio, CO/IA/NH, VA/NH are much easier than Romney's paths to victory.

Version: 35

My 2016 New Years Resolution: Make less maps.

Romney needs Virginia, Florida, Ohio and one of Iowa, NH or Colorado. The lean states could very well swing but the election won't hinge on them. We'll see where things stand after the third debate.

Version: 34

The election is getting pretty close, and it looks like this is where it's heading. Colorado's the closest toss-up.

Version: 33

Mitt's blowing it!

Version: 32

The lean states could flip in a decisive victory, but as I see it, there are only four real swing states.

Version: 31

Obama/Biden 52% PV
Romney/Ryan 47% PV

Version: 29

Matches the aggregate because the aggregate is correct

Version: 28

*NM is strong Obama but in the forties due to Gary Johnson's nomination.

A little sad to see my prediction match the aggregate, but Mitt's getting rocked in most recent VA and NH polls.

Version: 27

Not much margin of error for Romney electorally. Will need to win one of Iowa + NH as well as the four big swing states, but I do think he has a shot. PA and NV could theoretically be in play but Obama is polling better in AZ than Romney is in either of those states.

Version: 26

Update. Hard not to give Mitt NH but the polls don't lie.

Version: 25

Going to be close. Switched VA to Mitt as the state seems to be trending R again based on other races there.

Version: 24

Let the general election campaign begin. Not ready to call CO and MI toss-ups yet as Obama is doing well in those states, and I'll wait for another IN poll to make it Lean R but I think Romney will put a Mitt-load of money into PA.

Version: 23

Obama vs. Romney: March edition

Version: 22

Current Obama/Santorum scenario.

Version: 21

Ohio once again decides the election in this scenario. A Romney/????? ticket uses massive super-PAC spending and an ailing economy to eke out a familiar looking win.

Version: 20

Updated Obama vs. Romney map. Popular vote figures to be something like 50-48.

Version: 19

Still Obama vs. Romney.

Version: 18

Obama vs. Romney

Version: 17

Can't believe I left NH as tossup D. Obama/Romney for real.

Version: 16

Obama vs. Romney updated

Version: 15

Obama/Biden vs. Santorum/Demint

Version: 14

Updated Obama - Romney map

Version: 13

Hypothetical Obama-Paul tie scenario.

Version: 12

Obama/Romney with updated swing states and confidence.

Version: 11

Obama vs. Romney

Version: 10

Updated Obama vs. Romney map.

Version: 9

Paul - Obama

Version: 8

(Obama - Newt)

Version: 7

(Obama-Romney)

Version: 6

Obama-Gingrich scenario.

Version: 5

whoa

Version: 4

update update update

Version: 3

Map updated to switch Iowa, validate several swing states, fix a couple percentages, etc. Still assuming Romney/Obama (flip NH if someone else)

Version: 2

No real reason to suggest Obama would win NH other than 04 and 08 - especially against Romney.

Version: 1

Assuming Romney is the candidate*

Your guess is as good as mine (maybe slightly better) at this point in the race. I'll admit that my demographics may be out of date - some of my predictions are influenced by the 04 results.

Version History

38: 2012-11-04 @ 23:53:28 37: 2012-10-31 @ 19:32:28 36: 2012-10-24 @ 21:12:34 35: 2012-10-17 @ 13:55:03 34: 2012-10-10 @ 17:55:27 33: 2012-09-26 @ 12:02:05 32: 2012-09-11 @ 23:34:08 31: 2012-08-14 @ 17:11:08 30: 2012-06-05 @ 20:40:44 29: 2012-05-17 @ 18:47:07 28: 2012-05-06 @ 15:49:11 27: 2012-05-02 @ 22:09:35 26: 2012-04-26 @ 18:23:19 25: 2012-04-19 @ 11:40:35 24: 2012-04-10 @ 11:14:11 23: 2012-03-01 @ 18:42:27 22: 2012-02-10 @ 21:25:12 21: 2012-02-09 @ 21:34:24 20: 2012-01-28 @ 14:40:09 19: 2012-01-12 @ 17:22:30 18: 2012-01-09 @ 13:42:58 17: 2012-01-07 @ 11:45:31 16: 2012-01-06 @ 22:15:41 15: 2012-01-04 @ 01:01:02 14: 2011-12-30 @ 02:47:26 13: 2011-12-29 @ 16:48:54 12: 2011-12-23 @ 00:17:51 11: 2011-12-21 @ 23:54:49 10: 2011-12-20 @ 01:48:51 9: 2011-12-16 @ 19:48:46 8: 2011-12-14 @ 02:06:40 7: 2011-12-09 @ 17:17:59 6: 2011-12-08 @ 10:54:52 5: 2011-11-28 @ 01:27:19 4: 2011-11-23 @ 21:25:44 3: 2011-11-19 @ 11:17:44 2: 2011-10-24 @ 19:02:11 1: 2011-10-17 @ 19:25:49 View Version