PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - morgieb (I-AUS) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:7

Prediction Map
morgieb MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
morgieb MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem303
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem290
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos42
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-3-1-56262303-56
Rep+3+1+56000222179+56
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
104504455
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Final prediction.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 6

More "confident" map.


Version: 4

Based on Nate Silver's current projections.

Tossup: 65% or less confidence.
Lean: 65-85% confidence.
Safe: 85%+ confidence.


Version: 3

Map remains the same, but there are some changes to confidence and margins.


Version: 2

Better polling numbers for Romney - slight change to my initial predictions. Update coming in August/September.

My last map was a mistake, ignore that.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 53/56 44/56 97/112 86.6% pie 1 11 103T684
P 2020 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 1 9 66T423
P 2018 Senate 33/35 20/35 53/70 75.7% pie 1 4 132T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 27/36 60/72 83.3% pie 2 3 18T372
P 2016 President 46/56 27/56 73/112 65.2% pie 2 1 496T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 21/34 51/68 75.0% pie 1 3 60T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 1 3 67T279
P 2014 Senate 35/36 24/36 59/72 81.9% pie 6 11 42T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 19/36 50/72 69.4% pie 6 4 39T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 12 17T153
P 2012 President 55/56 49/56 104/112 92.9% pie 7 0 13T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 20/33 51/66 77.3% pie 4 0 94T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 2 0 5T228
Aggregate Predictions 401/438 288/438 689/876 78.7% pie



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