Recent polling shows Governor Romney has a slight and seemingly durable edge in Florida. His edge is diminishing a bit and that might show a last minute swing against him. At this point I am still placing Florida in the win column for him, yet the chance of his winning the state is just above 50%. If he falls further I will call the state a toss up. If his chance drops below 50% I will consider giving it to President Obama

I adjusted my confidence map for all states. I had not done this before and this adjustment reflects my confidence in these predictions. I expect some changes in North Carolina and Florida and maybe some in Colorado over the weekend.

Update: President Obama is now slightly ahead in Florida. I am moving this state to his column with the same slight level of confidence.

Florida will be a mess with allegations of registration irregularities on both sides although hurting Republicans more. The Governor's effort to purge the registration rolls will add another toxin to the mix. This will intensify other races as neither campaign will feel it can count on those 29 electoral votes in the Sunshine State.

Therefore, the race will be won and lost in Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina. Romney's post debate surge brought all three of these states into the toss up column, but he hasn't surged ahead in any of the three. The likelihood is they will fall back to their pre-debate status which means Obama gets Ohio and Virginia with a very tight race in North Carolina eventually going to Romney. Despite the president's first debate woes, Governor Kaine continues to poll in the lead in Virginia. That could help the president.

Governor Romney's post debate surge owes to the perception he did better than the president in the debate. He was clearly more aggressive and more comfortable with the one on one approach. He did demonstrate his tendency to reverse himself on his positions on issues. As voters begin to digest more of his content and less of his presentation his bounce could begin to wane.