Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-04 Version:46

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	294
Rep	244
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	201
Rep	191
Ind	0
Tos	146

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-1	-65	25	2	294	-65
Rep	+4	+1	+65	0	0	0	22	2	179	+65
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
84	49	27	5	3

Analysis

Final map for election

Cautionary note: ALthough there seems to be a slight movement toward Obama among independents the following states are almost evenly split and might make for a long night:

Virginia- closes early but third party takes a little over 2% and may cost the state to Romny. Obama +1
Florida - close but slight edge to Romney because of turnout in I4 corridor Romney +2
New Hampshire- tossup and ROmney's visit may help but right now slight tick to Obama +1

Iowa - seems to have settled in an Obama plus stage like the rest of the midwest Obama +2
Ohio-seems a little surer for Obama in my mind- Obama +2
Wisconsin +3 Obama

Nevada- turnout machine helps Obama +4
Colorado- early voting helps Romney +2

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-04 @ 10:20:38
Senate races Massachusetts, Maine, Indiana and Nevada + Dem on the other side Wisconsin, Montana, ND and nebraska + GOP a wash in the end 53-47 which will cost McConnell minoirty leader status House is a three seat gain for Dems, disappointment for them 196-239 loss of 2 governorships Montana and North carolina In MN the two amendmendments may be defeated one for marriage and the other a poorly written voter ID law.....most compelling ad former wounded vet talking about his gay fellow soldier who lost his life but we should not let him down my saying he could not marry. You cna die for your country but not marry who you want to... both amendments could go either way....

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-04 @ 11:21:22
Are you saying that Berkley(NV) is more likely to win than Baldwin(WI)? Republicans win US Senate Races in TX by a 15 point margin, NE by a 10 point margin, ND by a 5 point margin. AZ and MT by 2 to 3 points. NV and WI are a statistical tie but I am predicting Democrats win WI. Democrats narrowly win VA,MA,and CT, MO,IN,OH,PA,and FL by a 5-10 point margin. NM,MI,HI,NJ,and ME by 10-15 point margin. Last Edit: 2012-11-04 @ 11:38:19

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-04 @ 13:41:24
Yes, that is what I am saying based on three facts, Nev early voting is strong for Dems and 2nd the Dem machine in Nevada is strong and very active, third Wisconsin is evenly divided even if the President takes the state by 3-4%...Tammy though I like her is running about even which may not translate into a victory on election day as there is very little early voting in WI.... Anyway those are my thoughts...

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2012-11-05 @ 22:49:29
I'd probably switch CO and VA. This is a very possible scenario though...

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-09 @ 06:23:31
Well looks like we got CO and VA and FLorida. I was very accurate with MN as the DEM wave in MN nmaterialized and both the state senate and state house flipped to DEM. DFLers benefited from support from Indies and some moderate GOP to overturn both amendments to constitution- one which would have narrowly defined marraige and the voter iD bill. It was the wealthy suburbs of the Twin Cites where the biggest turhnaround happened as they threw out every GOP member of the state legislature. MESSAGE- deal with economic problems and stay out of bedrooms! Even Michele Bachmann in the most GOP district had to work so fard and spend 21 million to overcome a 2 million campaign from her able opponent....

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	16/56	66/112	58.9%	8	1	614	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	11/34	43/68	63.2%	8	0	317	T	362
2014 Senate	32/36	16/36	48/72	66.7%	19	13	240	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	16/36	47/72	65.3%	2	162	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	229	1	T	153
2012 President	54/56	30/56	84/112	75.0%	46	2	630	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	7/33	38/66	57.6%	8	3	283	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	78	157	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	26/52	4/52	30/104	28.8%	1	-	154	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	11/37	45/74	60.8%	50	7	306	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	26	6	143	T	312
2008 President	53/56	24/56	77/112	68.8%	83	1	625	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	4	122	281	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	286	212	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	427/490	179/490	606/980	61.8%

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