Update based on internal polling. I think Mitt's internal polling is more accurate than Barrack's, based on voter identity dynamics shown in the polls. If Mitt wins Ohio's actual Election Day votes by the same margin McCain won it by, then he wins the states (the idea that Mitt has already made up the difference in early voting even though he's down). I'm not saying it will happen that way, but history shows that it could.
Nevada has not broke at all in the polls, and Mitt has Mitt losing there. He hasn't spent much time there, either.
Iowa,Wisconsin, and PA appear to be deadlocked by all accurate accounts. Based on trends over the last few years, I have Iowa and Wisconsin going red and PA staying blue.
None of us know what will happen though, so we'll see. We can speculate and speculate; there are educated predictions, as well as uneducated predictions, on both sides. But there it is.
I predict it will be around 51-48 Romney, while getting 295 votes.