Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-04 Version:38

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	294
Rep	244
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	243
Rep	235
Ind	0
Tos	60

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-1	-65	25	2	294	-65
Rep	+4	+1	+65	0	0	0	22	2	179	+65
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
99	49	41	5	4

Analysis

Final map.

It should be a very close election, but based on polling, it appears that Obama will nearly sweep the swing states but only win the popular vote by something like 49.7-49.1. While I can't say I approve of the job Obama has done, he sure is a lot better than Mitt Romney and has my vote.

See you in 3 years!

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2020 President	53/56	41/56	94/112	83.9%	39	5	215	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	20/35	52/70	74.3%	1	8	194	T	423
2016 President	52/56	31/56	83/112	74.1%	16	2	114	T	678
2012 President	54/56	45/56	99/112	88.4%	38	2	146	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	16/33	47/66	71.2%	1	16	164	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	6/11	15/22	68.2%	1	203	131	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	40/52	6/52	46/104	44.2%	8	-	86	T	231
2008 President	52/56	36/56	88/112	78.6%	36	0	276	T	1,505
2004 President	54/56	33/56	87/112	77.7%	56	1	474	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	377/411	234/411	611/822	74.3%