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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:9

Prediction Map
WhyteRain Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
WhyteRain Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem269
 
Rep269
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem222
 
Rep259
 
Ind0
 
Tos57
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-6-1-90232269-90
Rep+6+1+90000222179+90
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
91473653
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-11-06 @ 09:56:03 prediction Map
This is just another way to get to a 269-269 tie. I just took the Rasmussen map (giving Romney the tied states of WI and OH) and changed two states, CO and VA, to Obama.

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-11-09 @ 15:54:48 prediction Map
So....how you doing there?

 By: thornestorm (G-CA) 2012-11-10 @ 16:37:30 prediction Map
"I just took the Rasmussen map" - that was where you made your big mistake. Rasmussen polls are like Karl Rove's calculations - math designed to make Republicans feel better.

 By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-11-10 @ 19:57:06 prediction Map
Looks like I underestimated Obama again. And looks like the blow hard tools of the right, yet again, made a jerk of themselves. SirJOW.... WhiteRyan... Many others on here NEVER LEARN THEIR LESSON.

What lese do expect from a bunch of people who don't believe in science and evolution?

And, yet again... NATE SILVER WAS RIGHT

 By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-11-10 @ 20:27:45 prediction Map
Republicans either have to learn to get with reality, or grow more and more bitter and irrelevant.

Most of the are going to choose the latter.

 By: thornestorm (G-CA) 2012-11-14 @ 02:16:48 prediction Map
Fivesenses82:

And in part, underestimated the American people.

Yes, conservatives don't believe in science, evolution, or arithmetic. They live in their own info-tainment bubble, where they are only provided what "facts" the hosts want them to hear. Reminds me of something Rove said years ago to a Democratic strategist: "You Democrats are making a mistake - you are fact-based; we Republicans create our own facts". Now even their own polling information is provided in that bubble, making it complete. Except when reality punctured it on Nov. 6 when as Jon Stewart said, "Bullsh*t Mountain" collapsed. They have avoided reality so far, and they are probably so full of hate and been fed misinformation for so long that it is just easier not to change.

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-11-15 @ 10:51:24 prediction Map
People seem to be mistaking this map for my prediction map. It's not. I don't believe in making "last-minute predictions", so my final prediction is the one you can view here on 10-03-2012. In it, I predicted Romney would win, 285 to 253. In my analysis I noted that Romney was the weakest-possible nominee for the GOP and said that, if forced to choose, I would vote for Obama.

I also said there that I hoped my vote for Gary Johnson would be the one vote that gave Florida, and the election, to Obama. I almost got my wish at least as far as tipping Florida. I see Dave here has Obama winning by only 50.01% in Florida.

The biggest mistake I made, which I freely confess, was to say, over and over, that "the only way Obama will win 330+ EVs is if the Dems win back the House". I never guessed that with such a narrow popular vote victory that Obama would win EVERY SINGLE "toss-up" state. Bush certainly didn't do so in 2004.

On the brighter side, I here predicted that "neither party will win even 10 seats in the House".

As far as evolution and science, it's leftists who don't believe them. They trumpet evolution only far enough to "disprove God's existence" and discard it after that. If you don't believe it, try discussing with a leftist how Darwin saw evolution in explaining the observable conditions -- to wit: the perceived superiority of the white race -- of the races. Amongst all the wailing and gnashing of teeth you will find they are all "Creationists" -- as in Thomas Jefferson's "all men are CREATED equal" (although white supremacist Jefferson never thought of this axiom applying to blacks). Nobel Prize winners in science have lost their jobs for merely speculating on the matter.

And as for "global warming", of course it's occuring. It started in the middle of the last "Little Ice Age" -- about 450 years ago -- and continues today. Leftists are simply trying to use this natural change to take freedom and property from people and give it to themselves. Al Gore was worth $2 million 10 years ago -- today, $100 million.

If the widely-held scientific view was that global-warming requires a drastic reduction in State Power, then all the Leftists would denounce it as a hoax.

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-11-15 @ 11:17:23 prediction Map
One more thing: I did a disservice to Rasmussen by giving all the undecideds, by a margin of 2:1, to Romney. In fact, it was OBAMA who won the undecideds by at least that much. Rasmussen didn't have a prediction of a winner this year, and I'm to blame, not he, for the predictions I made using his polls.

Nice job by the MSM in keeping strict radio silence on Benghazi and the other Obama fiascoes during the last week of the election while blanketing the air waves and news print publication with pictures of Obama wearing his "Air Force One" jacket for Tropical Storm Sandy photo-ops. If I know my former MSM colleagues, there were "Mission Accomplished!" banners -- at least figurative ones -- in most of their offices.

 By: thornestorm (G-CA) 2012-12-24 @ 02:40:13 prediction Map
Yes, Rasmussen just does polling to idly pass the time; sometimes he watches tv, sometimes stares at the wall, and sometimes does state and national polling. Of course his last poll in any state is his prediction for that state. Let's see how he fared against that radical left-wing polling firm PPP in battleground states:


Ras. PPP Actual

Ohio even O+5 O+3
Florida R+2 O+1 O+.9
Colorado R+3 O+6 O+5.4
Virginia R+2 O+4 O+3.9
Wisconsin even O+3 O+6.9
Iowa R+1 O+2 O+5.8
Nevada O+2 O+4 O+6.7
Minnesota O+5 O+8 O+7.7
Michigan O+5 O+6 O+9.5
Pennsylvania O+5 O+6 O+5.4
New Hampshire O+2 O+2 O+5.6
North Carolina R+6 even R+2


Ras. PPP
Avg. error per state 4.5 1.9

Hmm, with an error margin like that, Ras.
isn't going to be able to accurately predict very close states, while PPP should do pretty well.

But what about bias?

Ras. PPP
Average bias per state R+4.5 R+1

Well how about that - Ras. is consistently and heavily biased in favor of Romney, while PPP is also a little biased in favor of Romney! So much for PPP being a "left-leaning" polling firm.

Given how biased and inaccurate Rasmussen's polls are, it's hard to see why they should be taken seriously.




User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 52/56 39/56 91/112 81.3% pie 9 0 466T
Aggregate Predictions 52/56 39/56 91/112 81.3% pie



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