Election 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-02-28 Version:1

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	1
Romney	23
Paul	0
Santorum	20
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	1
Romney	20
Paul	0
Santorum	15
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0
Tossup	8

Analysis

I wish I had done this sooner because now I can't get any points for the states that are already over. Please give suggestions because I'm not sure how accurate my second version is.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: darthpi (D-PA) 2012-02-28 @ 13:56:55
Most of these predictions seem reasonable; the only glaring problem I see is Alaska. While there haven't been any polls there, Alaska has a history of voting for anti-establishment and very socially conservative candidates. Pat Buchanan and Pat Robertson have both won the presidential primary there, and just two years ago Joe Miller won the Senate primary there. Ron Paul took over 17% of the vote there last time and is likely to do better this year. While Romney could win, the race is almost certain to be much closer than you have it, as both Paul and Santorum have natural bases of support in the state. I can't imagine any candidate getting more than maybe 45% of the vote there, and a win in the mid-30% range is not out of the question.

By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-02-28 @ 14:23:05
Thanks I'll change that to 30% tossup Romney.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	52/56	39/56	91/112	81.3%	16	164	466	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	12/33	41/66	62.1%	3	195	241	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	8/11	18/22	81.8%	2	195	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	39/52	11/52	50/104	48.1%	9	-	71	T	231
Aggregate Predictions	130/152	70/152	200/304	65.8%

User Info

BYUmormon Forum Profile

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