Election 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-03-12 Version:35

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	3
Romney	36
Paul	1
Santorum	12
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	2
Romney	24
Paul	0
Santorum	7
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0
Tossup	19

Analysis

From PPP's poll release: From PPP's poll release: "In Mississippi folks who've decided in the last few days go for Gingrich over Santorum 37-29 with Romney at only 15%. But in Alabama the late deciders go 38-29 for Romney over Santorum with Gingrich at 23%." Thus, this map. Santorum really is toast if Romney can win in ALABAMA.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-03-13 @ 22:31:42
Uh-oh. Looks like another rough night for my map. They've already called Alabama for Santorum and he also holds a small lead in Mississippi. Speaking of Santorum, here's an interesting tidbit I found: according to ontheissues.org, Santorum is basically as far to the right as Bernie Sanders is to the left. lol Last Edit: 2012-03-14 @ 12:41:06

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2012-03-13 @ 22:49:10
Tough luck! Me too! A couple of posters will be headed to the top of the rankings. On to Illinois! Go Rick and a contested GOP convention! LOL

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-03-13 @ 23:03:26
Onto Tampa !!! LOL Brokered Convention....oh please !!! LOL.

By: CR (--MO) 2012-03-14 @ 19:44:53
Damn this race keeps screwing with my stats too! We might as well have a brokered convention, what could it hurt? We may even get a better nominee out of it. FDR came from one in 1932 after all.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-03-14 @ 22:46:10
Well the nomination process was vastly different back in the 1930's and 40's, I dont see the validity of a comparison. "Smoke filled rooms". While you could have a point as to the candidates internal strength, I believe public perception of the process also matters and I cant seem to find a positive to a disorderly nomination process. 1964 (Republicans)....the worst. Goldwater vs Rockefeller The convention was horribly divided and chaotic. It finally concluded with the moderate wing being shut out for a Goldwater nomination. Massive Democratic landslide in the fall with most moderates voting for LBJ. 1968 (Democrats) McCarthy vs Humphrey (Bobby Kennedy recently killed) Anti war protestors picket Democratic convention and are physically beaten by the police...Nixon uses it as a law and order campaign theme to win in the fall. "Silent Majority". 1976 (Republicans) Ford vs Reagan Split the moderate and conservative wings of the party. Conservatives remain luke warm to Ford in the fall. Carter narrowly beats Ford. 1980 (Democrats) Kennedy vs Carter Kennedy comes in a close second with the support of liberal wing of the party dissatisfied with Carter. Kennedy gives Carter a luke warm endorsement. Carter not only loses in the fall but is trounced by Reagan in certain democratic constituencies. All of these contests resulted in a loss after tough conventions. Some with or without a clear nominee going in but with a runner up very close in the delegate math. The most notable exception could be 2008. However Clinton endorsed Obama before the convention on a unity tour. Additionally all of that was before the economic collapse. So while I would not say Obama is a slam dunk, I believe all of this works in his favor. He can raise money and steer the conversation while the republicans duke it out in a prolonged fight. A fight that could lead to an uncertain fireworks at the convention .....Onto Tampa ! Last Edit: 2012-03-15 @ 01:04:24

By: CR (--MO) 2012-03-14 @ 23:14:53
Well you may have a point but other factors, such as gas prices for example, could play a role that aids the eventual Republican nominee. For better or worse most of the center-right coalition of the GOP hates Obama and I imagine their will be a fair amount of unity in the GOP heading into the fall. Will it be enough is a different question all together. As you know I'm not really expecting much. However, I think there is a slight possibility that things could turn around under the right conditions. So again, not a slam dunk for the president but he's favored. Give what I've seen in the party so far it really couldn't get that much worse. On to Tampa and maybe a better nominee than this lot has produced.

By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-03-15 @ 20:16:20
As I've said before, I think talk of a brokered convention is just Republicans grasping at the straws. The party's strong candidates - Christie, Rubio, and Jindal - have made it very clear they don't want the nom this year and are waiting till 2016. A brokered convention will likely just result in an already weak Romney being stuck with Santorum as a running mate. But I don't think that's particularly likely, unless Gingrich gets out soon we're probably looking at Romney winning the nomination outright. I think the fact that he was competitive in MS and AL says a lot about his chances. Can he win the GE? Barring a debacle Iran, no. He's managed to do a brilliant job of pissing off both blue collar workers in the rust belt and hispanics in the southwest.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2022 Senate	32/35	27/35	59/70	84.3%	5	7	69	T	305
2022 Governor	32/36	27/36	59/72	81.9%	4	17	88	T	272
2020 President	54/56	52/56	106/112	94.6%	1	212	1	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	27/35	58/70	82.9%	1	210	12	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	1	212	10	T	293
2018 Senate	33/35	24/35	57/70	81.4%	4	24	24	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	18/36	50/72	69.4%	1	306	226	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	1	1	T	149
2016 President	51/56	29/56	80/112	71.4%	14	0	246	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	19/34	50/68	73.5%	7	0	89	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	3	0	67	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	1	123	57	T	112
2014 Senate	32/36	23/36	55/72	76.4%	8	0	122	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	16/36	46/72	63.9%	4	0	123	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	34	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	44/56	99/112	88.4%	42	2	146	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	22/33	52/66	78.8%	7	2	74	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	5/11	15/22	68.2%	2	2	131	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	45/52	23/52	68/104	65.4%	41	-	13	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	2/4	6/8	75.0%	11	1	12	T	106
2010 Senate	35/37	27/37	62/74	83.8%	108	0	21	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	26/37	60/74	81.1%	59	0	45	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	597/655	428/655	1025/1310	78.2%

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