Comments History
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hideVersion: 23
Romney will win by a moderately large margin in my home state, probably winning the whole eastern half while Santorum wins by smaller margins out west. In Maryland, Romney will win by a landslide, and Romney will have an overwhelming margin in DC.
FINAL DC PREDICTION
Romney----------71.8%
Paul------------14.1%
Santorum--------9.0%
Gingrich--------4.4%
Other-----------0.7%
FINAL MARYLAND PREDICTION
Romney----------53.2%
Santorum--------28.5%
Gingrich--------10.4%
Paul------------7.1%
Other-----------0.8%
FINAL WISCONSIN PREDICTION
Romney----------43.0%
Santorum--------35.6%
Paul------------13.2%
Gingrich--------7.5%
Other-----------0.7%
Version: 20
Santorum will win comfortably in Louisiana tomorrow night. The results I think will look like this.
FINAL LOUISIANA PREDICTION
Santorum--------45.2%
Romney----------30.7%
Gingrich--------17.3%
Paul------------6.1%
Other-----------0.7%
Version: 19
Romney will win comfortably in Illinois tomorrow night. Santorum will be an easy second, leaving Gingrich and Paul in the dust.
FINAL ILLINOIS PREDICTION
Romney----------44.7%
Santorum--------33.8%
Gingrich--------11.4%
Paul------------9.2%
Other-----------0.9%
Version: 17
Romney has been noticeably underperforming in Southern primaries, so I expect him to do so again. I predict that Gingrich will narrowly take both MS and AL tomorrow. Romney will win Hawaii by a large margin. I think it will be a blowout.
FINAL ALABAMA PREDICTION
Santorum--------34.5%
Romney----------29.6%
Santorum--------28.2%
Paul------------6.8%
Other-----------0.9%
FINAL HAWAII PREDICTION
Romney----------51.6%
Paul------------19.0%
Santorum--------17.7%
Gingrich--------10.9%
Other-----------0.8%
FINAL MISSISSIPPI PREDICTION
Gingrich--------32.4%
Romney----------31.1%
Santorum--------28.5%
Paul------------7.2%
Other-----------0.8%
Version: 16
Santorum will win Kansas by a very large margin, but I think that he will not be able to make an absolute majority.
FINAL KANSAS PREDICTION
Santorum--------45.7%
Romney----------26.9%
Paul------------18.8%
Gingrich--------7.7%
Other-----------0.9%
Version: 14
Here are my Super Tuesday Predictions.
Alaska
Paul will, like usual, perform very strongly in this caucus, but I think he will lose yet another caucus by a small margin to Romney.
FINAL ALASKA PREDICTION
Romney----------35.3%
Paul------------33.6%
Santorum--------17.8%
Gingrich--------13.3%
Georgia
The time Gingrich spent in Georgia will pay off. I think he will easily defeat both Romney and Santorum in the primary in one of the wider margins of the election night.
FINAL GEORGIA PREDICTION
Gingrich--------47.9%
Romney----------26.7%
Santorum--------17.2%
Paul------------7.4%
Other-----------0.8%
Idaho
I think Romney will have a huge margin in the Idaho caucus. I think Paul, performing strongly in the caucuses, will get second place.
FINAL IDAHO PREDICTION
Romney----------51.2%
Paul------------22.7%
Santorum--------16.4%
Gingrich--------8.1%
Other-----------1.6%
Massachusetts
I think Romney will have an overwhelming margin in his home state and will easily defeat everyone else. In my opinion, this will be one of the two the least competitive race of the night, the least excluding Virginia.
FINAL MASSACHUSETTS PREDICTION
Romney----------63.2%
Santorum--------18.3%
Paul------------10.3%
Gingrich--------7.1%
Other-----------1.1%
North Dakota
If this caucus would've been held even a few days ago, I think Santorum would have had a wide margin. He might still have one, given the proximity of North Dakota to western Minnesota, where he performed strongly. This race though, due to momentum, is likely to be close. I'm putting Santorum ahead due to his strong caucus showing in Western Minnesota.
FINAL NORTH DAKOTA PREDICTION
Santorum--------34.6%
Romney----------31.3%
Paul------------24.8%
Gingrich--------8.8%
Other-----------0.5%
Ohio
Romney has been gaining visible amounts of momentum here lately. I'd say he will defeat Santorum in a race that will be close and comfortable, largely to large margins in Northeast Ohio to offset Santorum in the rural parts.
FINAL OHIO PREDICTION
Romney----------36.5%
Santorum--------32.3%
Gingrich--------18.2%
Paul------------12.5%
Other-----------0.5%
Oklahoma
Gingrich will surge here at the end, and will put up a very strong performance, narrowly defeating Romney. I think Santorum will still win this state by about ten points.
FINAL OKLAHOMA PREDICTION
Santorum--------37.7%
Gingrich--------27.0%
Romney----------26.8%
Paul------------7.9%
Other-----------0.6%
Tennessee
I think this will be the closest race of the night. Gingrich has been surging here, and I think he will get a strong percentage of the vote, but it won't be quite enough for Romney to win... but just barely not enough.
FINAL TENNESSEE PREDICTION
Santorum---------31.0%
Romney-----------30.8%
Gingrich---------28.6%
Paul-------------8.8%
Other------------0.8%
Vermont
I think Romney will have a wide win here. Paul will earn second, and with a strong percentage particularly seeing that Vermont is not a caucus.
FINAL VERMONT PREDICTION
Romney-----------45.6%
Paul-------------25.3%
Santorum---------19.8%
Gingrich---------7.9%
Other------------1.4%
Virginia
Without Gingrich or Santorum, chances are Romney will have a huge margin here.
FINAL VIRGINIA PREDICTION
Romney----------69.6%
Paul------------30.4%
Version: 13
Romney will emerge with a narrow victory in Washington State. Santorum's strong showing in caucus states will get him close, but he'll lose by a small margin.
FINAL WASHINTON PREDICTION
Romney-----------38.3%
Santorum---------34.6%
Paul-------------14.8%
Gingrich---------12.3%
Version: 12
Wyoming Prediction: The results in Wyoming will be relatively close, but the precincts near Utah and Idaho will give Romney a large enough margin to win Wyoming.
FINAL WYOMING PREDICTION
Romney------------38.6%
Santorum----------32.3%
Paul--------------22.2%
Gingrich----------6.9%
Version: 11
Romney will win both states tomorrow night. He will win with a large margin in Arizona that will be projected shortly after the polls are closed. Michigan will be a nail-biter, but Romney will win in the end.
FINAL ARIZONA PREDICTION
Romney---------43.4%
Santorum-------28.2%
Gingrich-------16.3%
Paul-----------11.9%
Other----------0.2%
FINAL MICHIGAN PREDICTION
Romney---------38.2%
Santorum-------36.3%
Gingrich-------13.8%
Paul-----------11.6%
Other----------0.1%
Version: 10
Maine Prediction: I think Romney will narrowly pull this one off. It will be a very close race, with Paul racking huge gains in rural areas from his 2008 showing, but Romney will hold enough ground in the Portland area to squeak out a win.
FINAL MAINE PREDICTION
Romney----------37.8%
Paul------------36.4%
Santorum--------13.8%
Gingrich--------12.0%
Version: 9
COLORADO AND MINNESOTA FINAL PREDICTIONS
I'm predicting an easy win for Romney in Colorado tomorrow night and a narrow Santorum win in Minnesota. Santorum will probably win the Missouri Primary in my opinion. Here are my full predictions. I have very low confidence though, in both Minnesota and Missouri.
FINAL COLORADO PREDICTION
Romney----------43.8%
Santorum--------25.1%
Gingrich--------16.0%
Paul------------14.2%
Other-----------0.9%
FINAL MINNESOTA PREDICTION
Santorum--------31.2%
Romney----------26.3%
Paul------------21.8%
Gingrich--------19.6%
Other-----------1.1%
MISSOURI PRIMARY
Santorum--------38.4%
Romney----------27.7%
Paul------------25.3%
Uncommitted (Gingrich)-----7.8%
Other-----------0.8%
Version: 8
Romney will win Nevada in a landslide tomorrow. Here is my prediction.
FINAL NEVADA PREDICTION
Romney-----------52.3%
Gingrich---------24.6%
Paul-------------14.4%
Santorum---------7.3%
Other------------1.4%
Version: 7
Romney will win comfortably tomorrow night, but it won't be a blowout win for him. Still, I expect he'll pick up some momentum after tomorrow, and his margin I expect will be large enough to provide him with some momentum.
FINAL FLORIDA PREDICTION
Romney---------44.4%
Gingrich-------29.3%
Santorum-------15.6%
Paul-----------8.7%
Others---------2.0%
Version: 6
My South Carolina Prediction... Gingrich will pull off a narrow win tomorrow night. Here is my specific percentage prediction.
FINAL SOUTH CAROLINA PREDICTION
Gingrich---------36.2%
Romney-----------33.7%
Santorum---------15.7%
Paul-------------13.9%
Other------------0.5%
Version: 5
Romney will probably win comfortably tomorrow night. He's polling very well in the state. I think that Huntsman will be able to pull out a third place finish over Santorum and Gingrich.
FINAL NEW HAMPSHIRE PREDICTION
Romney-----------39.5%
Paul-------------21.1%
Huntsman---------15.3%
Gingrich---------10.9%
Santorum---------10.6%
Roemer------------1.4%
Perry-------------1.2%
Version: 4
Very close on my prediction here... my head is predicting that Romney will win, but I have a feeling that either Santorum or Paul will pull it off. I'm (reluctantly) predicting Santorum, but this is difficult. Here is my final Iowa forecast (w/percentages):
Santorum 22.8%
Romney 22.6%
Paul 19.5%
Gingrich 14.7%
Perry 10.9%
Bachmann 6.3%
Huntsman 2.1%
Roemer 0.6%
Cain 0.2%
No Preference/Other 0.3%