Predictions2012 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions - PoliticalJunkie (I-WI) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-05-14 Version:26

Prediction Map
PoliticalJunkie MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
PoliticalJunkie MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Huntsman0
 
Gingrich4
 
Romney40
 
Paul0
 
Santorum8
 
Cain0
 
Perry0
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Huntsman0
 
Gingrich1
 
Romney34
 
Paul0
 
Santorum3
 
Cain0
 
Perry0
 
Other0
 
Tossup14
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
774829
piepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 23

Romney will win by a moderately large margin in my home state, probably winning the whole eastern half while Santorum wins by smaller margins out west. In Maryland, Romney will win by a landslide, and Romney will have an overwhelming margin in DC.

FINAL DC PREDICTION

Romney----------71.8%
Paul------------14.1%
Santorum--------9.0%
Gingrich--------4.4%
Other-----------0.7%

FINAL MARYLAND PREDICTION

Romney----------53.2%
Santorum--------28.5%
Gingrich--------10.4%
Paul------------7.1%
Other-----------0.8%

FINAL WISCONSIN PREDICTION

Romney----------43.0%
Santorum--------35.6%
Paul------------13.2%
Gingrich--------7.5%
Other-----------0.7%


Version: 20

Santorum will win comfortably in Louisiana tomorrow night. The results I think will look like this.

FINAL LOUISIANA PREDICTION

Santorum--------45.2%
Romney----------30.7%
Gingrich--------17.3%
Paul------------6.1%
Other-----------0.7%


Version: 19

Romney will win comfortably in Illinois tomorrow night. Santorum will be an easy second, leaving Gingrich and Paul in the dust.

FINAL ILLINOIS PREDICTION

Romney----------44.7%
Santorum--------33.8%
Gingrich--------11.4%
Paul------------9.2%
Other-----------0.9%


Version: 17

Romney has been noticeably underperforming in Southern primaries, so I expect him to do so again. I predict that Gingrich will narrowly take both MS and AL tomorrow. Romney will win Hawaii by a large margin. I think it will be a blowout.

FINAL ALABAMA PREDICTION

Santorum--------34.5%
Romney----------29.6%
Santorum--------28.2%
Paul------------6.8%
Other-----------0.9%

FINAL HAWAII PREDICTION

Romney----------51.6%
Paul------------19.0%
Santorum--------17.7%
Gingrich--------10.9%
Other-----------0.8%

FINAL MISSISSIPPI PREDICTION

Gingrich--------32.4%
Romney----------31.1%
Santorum--------28.5%
Paul------------7.2%
Other-----------0.8%




Version: 16

Santorum will win Kansas by a very large margin, but I think that he will not be able to make an absolute majority.

FINAL KANSAS PREDICTION

Santorum--------45.7%
Romney----------26.9%
Paul------------18.8%
Gingrich--------7.7%
Other-----------0.9%


Version: 14

Here are my Super Tuesday Predictions.

Alaska

Paul will, like usual, perform very strongly in this caucus, but I think he will lose yet another caucus by a small margin to Romney.

FINAL ALASKA PREDICTION

Romney----------35.3%
Paul------------33.6%
Santorum--------17.8%
Gingrich--------13.3%

Georgia

The time Gingrich spent in Georgia will pay off. I think he will easily defeat both Romney and Santorum in the primary in one of the wider margins of the election night.

FINAL GEORGIA PREDICTION

Gingrich--------47.9%
Romney----------26.7%
Santorum--------17.2%
Paul------------7.4%
Other-----------0.8%

Idaho

I think Romney will have a huge margin in the Idaho caucus. I think Paul, performing strongly in the caucuses, will get second place.

FINAL IDAHO PREDICTION

Romney----------51.2%
Paul------------22.7%
Santorum--------16.4%
Gingrich--------8.1%
Other-----------1.6%

Massachusetts

I think Romney will have an overwhelming margin in his home state and will easily defeat everyone else. In my opinion, this will be one of the two the least competitive race of the night, the least excluding Virginia.

FINAL MASSACHUSETTS PREDICTION

Romney----------63.2%
Santorum--------18.3%
Paul------------10.3%
Gingrich--------7.1%
Other-----------1.1%

North Dakota

If this caucus would've been held even a few days ago, I think Santorum would have had a wide margin. He might still have one, given the proximity of North Dakota to western Minnesota, where he performed strongly. This race though, due to momentum, is likely to be close. I'm putting Santorum ahead due to his strong caucus showing in Western Minnesota.

FINAL NORTH DAKOTA PREDICTION

Santorum--------34.6%
Romney----------31.3%
Paul------------24.8%
Gingrich--------8.8%
Other-----------0.5%

Ohio

Romney has been gaining visible amounts of momentum here lately. I'd say he will defeat Santorum in a race that will be close and comfortable, largely to large margins in Northeast Ohio to offset Santorum in the rural parts.

FINAL OHIO PREDICTION

Romney----------36.5%
Santorum--------32.3%
Gingrich--------18.2%
Paul------------12.5%
Other-----------0.5%

Oklahoma

Gingrich will surge here at the end, and will put up a very strong performance, narrowly defeating Romney. I think Santorum will still win this state by about ten points.

FINAL OKLAHOMA PREDICTION

Santorum--------37.7%
Gingrich--------27.0%
Romney----------26.8%
Paul------------7.9%
Other-----------0.6%

Tennessee

I think this will be the closest race of the night. Gingrich has been surging here, and I think he will get a strong percentage of the vote, but it won't be quite enough for Romney to win... but just barely not enough.

FINAL TENNESSEE PREDICTION

Santorum---------31.0%
Romney-----------30.8%
Gingrich---------28.6%
Paul-------------8.8%
Other------------0.8%

Vermont

I think Romney will have a wide win here. Paul will earn second, and with a strong percentage particularly seeing that Vermont is not a caucus.

FINAL VERMONT PREDICTION

Romney-----------45.6%
Paul-------------25.3%
Santorum---------19.8%
Gingrich---------7.9%
Other------------1.4%

Virginia

Without Gingrich or Santorum, chances are Romney will have a huge margin here.

FINAL VIRGINIA PREDICTION

Romney----------69.6%
Paul------------30.4%




Version: 13

Romney will emerge with a narrow victory in Washington State. Santorum's strong showing in caucus states will get him close, but he'll lose by a small margin.

FINAL WASHINTON PREDICTION

Romney-----------38.3%
Santorum---------34.6%
Paul-------------14.8%
Gingrich---------12.3%


Version: 12

Wyoming Prediction: The results in Wyoming will be relatively close, but the precincts near Utah and Idaho will give Romney a large enough margin to win Wyoming.

FINAL WYOMING PREDICTION
Romney------------38.6%
Santorum----------32.3%
Paul--------------22.2%
Gingrich----------6.9%


Version: 11

Romney will win both states tomorrow night. He will win with a large margin in Arizona that will be projected shortly after the polls are closed. Michigan will be a nail-biter, but Romney will win in the end.

FINAL ARIZONA PREDICTION

Romney---------43.4%
Santorum-------28.2%
Gingrich-------16.3%
Paul-----------11.9%
Other----------0.2%

FINAL MICHIGAN PREDICTION

Romney---------38.2%
Santorum-------36.3%
Gingrich-------13.8%
Paul-----------11.6%
Other----------0.1%


Version: 10

Maine Prediction: I think Romney will narrowly pull this one off. It will be a very close race, with Paul racking huge gains in rural areas from his 2008 showing, but Romney will hold enough ground in the Portland area to squeak out a win.

FINAL MAINE PREDICTION

Romney----------37.8%
Paul------------36.4%
Santorum--------13.8%
Gingrich--------12.0%


Version: 9

COLORADO AND MINNESOTA FINAL PREDICTIONS

I'm predicting an easy win for Romney in Colorado tomorrow night and a narrow Santorum win in Minnesota. Santorum will probably win the Missouri Primary in my opinion. Here are my full predictions. I have very low confidence though, in both Minnesota and Missouri.

FINAL COLORADO PREDICTION

Romney----------43.8%
Santorum--------25.1%
Gingrich--------16.0%
Paul------------14.2%
Other-----------0.9%

FINAL MINNESOTA PREDICTION

Santorum--------31.2%
Romney----------26.3%
Paul------------21.8%
Gingrich--------19.6%
Other-----------1.1%

MISSOURI PRIMARY

Santorum--------38.4%
Romney----------27.7%
Paul------------25.3%
Uncommitted (Gingrich)-----7.8%
Other-----------0.8%


Version: 8

Romney will win Nevada in a landslide tomorrow. Here is my prediction.

FINAL NEVADA PREDICTION

Romney-----------52.3%
Gingrich---------24.6%
Paul-------------14.4%
Santorum---------7.3%
Other------------1.4%


Version: 7

Romney will win comfortably tomorrow night, but it won't be a blowout win for him. Still, I expect he'll pick up some momentum after tomorrow, and his margin I expect will be large enough to provide him with some momentum.

FINAL FLORIDA PREDICTION

Romney---------44.4%
Gingrich-------29.3%
Santorum-------15.6%
Paul-----------8.7%
Others---------2.0%


Version: 6

My South Carolina Prediction... Gingrich will pull off a narrow win tomorrow night. Here is my specific percentage prediction.

FINAL SOUTH CAROLINA PREDICTION

Gingrich---------36.2%
Romney-----------33.7%
Santorum---------15.7%
Paul-------------13.9%
Other------------0.5%


Version: 5

Romney will probably win comfortably tomorrow night. He's polling very well in the state. I think that Huntsman will be able to pull out a third place finish over Santorum and Gingrich.


FINAL NEW HAMPSHIRE PREDICTION

Romney-----------39.5%
Paul-------------21.1%
Huntsman---------15.3%
Gingrich---------10.9%
Santorum---------10.6%
Roemer------------1.4%
Perry-------------1.2%


Version: 4

Very close on my prediction here... my head is predicting that Romney will win, but I have a feeling that either Santorum or Paul will pull it off. I'm (reluctantly) predicting Santorum, but this is difficult. Here is my final Iowa forecast (w/percentages):
Santorum 22.8%
Romney 22.6%
Paul 19.5%
Gingrich 14.7%
Perry 10.9%
Bachmann 6.3%
Huntsman 2.1%
Roemer 0.6%
Cain 0.2%
No Preference/Other 0.3%


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2012 President 55/56 45/56 100/112 89.3% pie 10 1 115T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 22/33 53/66 80.3% pie 4 1 56T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 5/11 15/22 68.2% pie 3 1 131T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 48/52 29/52 77/104 74.0% pie 26 - 1231
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 26 1 63T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 10 1 29T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 7 1 1T103
P 2008 President 53/56 48/56 101/112 90.2% pie 20 1 6T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 14 0 28T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 3 1 50T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 38/52 17/52 55/104 52.9% pie 19 - 61T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 40/49 7/49 47/98 48.0% pie 10 - 64T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 0/3 3/6 50.0% pie 1 105 135T167
Aggregate Predictions 391/432 257/432 648/864 75.0% pie


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