Trump vs. Clinton<br /> <br /> Popular vote virtually tied.

Any Republican vs. Clinton/Sanders

Republicans outperform their 2012 election showing, making small inroads with nonwhite demographics and very minimally improve their 2012 margin with whites. African American turnout decreases substantially without Obama on the ticket and they return to voting 8-9% Republican in 2016. The popular vote is virtually tied nationwide. Ohio votes for the Republican by 1% and Virginia votes for the Democratic candidate (Clinton) by less than 1%. Republicans could win the national popular vote by a negligible margin, but urbanization and liberalization of northern Virginia in Fairfax County, the legalization of marijuana in Colorado, and the failure to court enough Hispanics overall (especially in Nevada and Virginia) hand crucial states to the Democrats. Republicans make Pennsylvania a close state, voting for the Democrat by only 2%, the closest the state has been since 1988.