Election 2016 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-06-26 Version:206

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	332
Rep	206
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	237
Rep	179
Ind	0
Tos	122

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	0	0	0	27	2	332	0
Rep	0	0	0	0	0	0	24	3	206	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Could this be the very 1st presidential election ever to have the same identical Electoral College map as the prior election? Could very well happen in 2016 believe it or not. NC, CO and AZ could very well determine that, even in a Hillary-Donald matchup. I now think there won't be as many changes to the Electoral College map at all except in a landslide, especially with polls now showing Donald ahead of Hillary in NC. That's how inelastic the Electoral Map is right now, even in a sharply divided 50/50 country which you wouldn't think would be the case at all. I thought NC definitely would shift but the last PPP poll had Trump winning there by a slim margin. It will also be interesting to see if the recent poll showing Hillary ahead of Trump in double digits is legit. I don't think it is. But if it indeed is states like AZ could shift, and definitely NC. Perhaps IN, MO, GA, the Omaha NE district, maybe even a few others. Even then most states still seem to be rock solid right now even at that. Wait and see as always.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	33/35	24/35	57/70	81.4%	48	75	124	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	20/36	55/72	76.4%	52	75	173	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	19	7	1	T	118
2020 President	55/56	38/56	93/112	83.0%	193	6	260	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	22/35	55/70	78.6%	52	4	66	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	33	6	147	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	6	3	104	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	24/35	57/70	81.4%	135	0	24	T	483
2018 Governor	34/36	21/36	55/72	76.4%	66	2	122	T	372
2016 President	51/56	23/56	74/112	66.1%	290	1	473	T	678
2014 Senate	35/36	20/36	55/72	76.4%	22	13	122	T	382
2012 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	85	2	401	T	760
2011 Governor	4/4	3/4	7/8	87.5%	5	36	2	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	63	0	63	T	456
2008 President	53/56	43/56	96/112	85.7%	167	1	74	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	17/33	50/66	75.8%	21	7	117	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	16	0	50	T	264
2007 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	4	27	135	T	167
Aggregate Predictions	514/541	337/541	851/1082	78.7%

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