Election 2016 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-06-28 Version:5

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	323
Rep	215
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	232
Rep	191
Ind	0
Tos	115

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-1	0	-9	26	2	323	-9
Rep	+1	0	+9	0	0	0	24	3	206	+9
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

New map Clinton versus Trump... closer in a number of states but hard to tell where the third party vote comes from in each state with Johnson getting higher number in GOP states and Green party getting higher number in Dem states...higher number of GOP voters to Dem voters for example.<br /> <br /> I think total for third parties will top 10% making new president minority president again.<br /> <br />

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2016-06-28 @ 18:18:58
I honestly think that Colorado and Pennsylvania are the closest states right now followed by Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina. Presently I give NC and CO to Trump with a strong showing in Pennsylvania..here Johnson vote might save Trump...suburban vote which might have gone to Clinton.

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2016-06-30 @ 12:02:21
Glad to see you back I missed you. I have CO going for Hillary right now, but only because Trump is a worse fit for CO than Hillary is, and the Hispanic vote should really help her there, even though I do agree it will be a close one. I think PA is "fool's gold" for the Republicans right now but then again you never know. NC is a virtual tossup that could easily go either way. I think IA and probably OH too look good for Hillary, even though they too are 50/50 states. I think NH is looking good for Hillary too right now. Wait and see as always.

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2016-06-30 @ 13:01:10
I do wonder like you apparently what will happen if there are one or two third party candidates who receive 5 to 10 percent of the vote. This could be surprisingly huge and important, just like it was in 2000. Again wait and see as always. Last Edit: 2016-06-30 @ 13:08:07

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2016-07-01 @ 18:08:21
I think the third party option will draw equally from both parties to total 12 per cent total from green and libertarian...<br /> myself I lean third party as of today but I think if trump had a chance to win MN I would probably swallow hard and vote for Hilary.<br /> <br /> Anyway the next shocks will be the VP's....wait until August to digest that???

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2016-07-02 @ 17:15:38
Good point dnul222 the VP position is definitely something to "wait and see" on. I think they'll be much more important this election than most, especially for Trump. Wait and see as always.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2016-07-19 @ 15:24:04
Hey guys! I lean third party as well, in part because trump will win Indiana anyway. If Trump had a chance in MN then Clinton would be in real trouble!<br /> <br /> A number of states could have a margin less than the third party vote, including the "big three" Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. They could also change outcomes in independent minded New Hampshire and ME-2, or help HRC win Arizona.

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2016-07-19 @ 22:26:33
Glad to see you back wingindy. I think Trump obviously didn't "hit one out of the park" concerning his VP pick I think he "struck out" instead. But lately the VP position hasn't meant that much to American voters fairly recently, or Bush Sr. wouldn't have won in 1988 and McCain wouldn't even have done as well as he eventually did back in 2008. About any third parties I really don't know if there will even be any third party candidates or not. If so I don't think they will mean that much except in a fairly close election. However that's not guaranteed either right now since we are currently a 50/50 nation, and in a very close race just like we had in 2000 it could very well sway the election one way or the other, just like it did that year. But only in a razor-thin close election and that's it. Election Day is still an "eternity" away though and politics changes daily as well. Wait and see as always.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2016-07-25 @ 01:53:47
of course there will be third parties, as Stein and Johnson will head their parties' respective tickets. I don't think the VPs will matter much, as each candidate was well placed in their respective VP's states already. Neither will overcome the divisiveness and unfavorability of the head of each major ticket.

By: thachem (I-DC) 2016-07-25 @ 15:56:04
HRC is stronger in CO than she is in OH, IA or PA<br /> That's Trump strategy, forget about CO, NM and NV and focus on the disgruntled Rust Belt<br /> By hitting on immigration and trade, this is his gamble

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	16/56	66/112	58.9%	8	1	614	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	11/34	43/68	63.2%	8	0	317	T	362
2014 Senate	32/36	16/36	48/72	66.7%	19	13	240	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	16/36	47/72	65.3%	2	162	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	229	1	T	153
2012 President	54/56	30/56	84/112	75.0%	46	2	630	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	7/33	38/66	57.6%	8	3	283	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	78	157	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	26/52	4/52	30/104	28.8%	1	-	154	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	11/37	45/74	60.8%	50	7	306	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	26	6	143	T	312
2008 President	53/56	24/56	77/112	68.8%	83	1	625	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	4	122	281	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	286	212	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	427/490	179/490	606/980	61.8%

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