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Date of Prediction: 2015-06-28 Version:5
Prediction Map
Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
Hillary vs. strong generic Republican as of June 28, 2015. No VP candidate listed. This is an update to my version number two due to the Confederate flag and gay marriage issues in the South and the perception rightly or wrongly about the economy and foreign policy, again with strong anti-Obama sentiment hurting Hillary once again especially in the South but this time not only there but also elsewhere too. It is mostly like that map except I have OR and ME-2 going Republican but I was probably generous to the Republicans even in this case OR and ME-2 probably stay Democratic even in this scenario but are still very, very close. I was probably too generous to the Republicans as far as percentages go too. Again I have my home state of WV at 70 percent to prove a point but maybe not as far-fetched as I originally thought and that's only because of Hillary and her alone any other Democrat might not crack 30 percent here in WV believe it or not. People here absolutely love the Confederate flag especially in my neck of the woods the southern part of the state even despite the fact that WV was technically a Union state during the Civil War. The gay marriage issue resonates here very strongly as well again in southern WV especially among white evangelicals Pentecostals especially. And of course the perception rightly or wrongly of the Democrats' coal and gun policies. Of course WV strongly hates Obama as well and WV might even be more Republican in this particular scenario than even ID and WY and yes possibly even GOP strongholds UT and OK believe it or not! Hillary is probably not as unpopular here as Obama that is probably the only reason her strong GOP opponent doesn't reach 70 percent even against her right now. Obama's approval ratings might even be in the teens in WV right now too believe it or not! IN should be strong too instead of just lean too that mistake I did catch. I said "strong" Republican just like before but in this particular scenario any Republican could possibly win by this margin but more than likely even in this case it would probably take a strong Republican to win by this margin. Again I say "strong" Republican candidate but any Republican can even win by this margin but not nearly as likely.
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