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Date of Prediction: 2015-07-04 Version:11
Prediction Map
Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
Hillary vs. Generic Republican shocking Hillary blowout loss map as of Independence Day July 4, 2015. No VP candidate listed. Nothing major has changed except maybe a few minor changed. The Confederate Flag, gay marriage, the "Dukes of Hazzard" brouhaha (yes Southerners do even vote on stuff like that believe it or not), the perception of a bad economy, and also the bad perception of Obama's foreign policy as well, the worst race relations since the 1960s (I now think a "blacks vs. whites" race war and/or Civil War II is likely if not imminent right now I hope and pray I'm wrong) along with guns and other "values" issues are still hurting Hillary big time and in this scenario especially cost us Democrats NC, FL, and probably VA as well. I still think this is very much possible and that Obama can still hurt Hillary big time. If this happened in 2012 instead of today 2016 Obama would have blown out of the water no question about it. The South is most likely gone too for good including NC and FL, and probably VA too, even for Hillary. I hope I'm wrong but I think that Obama will hurt Hillary big time. But then again I live in southern West Virginia where Obama's approval ratings are probably in the teens right now, I might be overhyping the white evangelical effect but according to my observations here in WV where there are a ton of them. I don't think I am sad to say they appear to be more motivated this election than I've ever seen them in my lifetime. I'm actually a white evangelical myself and I attend a white Pentecostal church and I'm probably the only one in my entire church that will vote for the Democratic nominee in 2016, and they appear more motivated this year than ever before to vote than I've ever seen them in my entire lifetime yes even against Hillary believe it or not, and they appear a lot more motivated than the Democratic voters are right now, at least according to my observations, than I've seen before in my entire life. My very own family and the few friends I have are solidly against me too and all plan to vote Republican and against Hillary in 2016 except for me. Obama is just very fortunate that wasn't the case in 2012 it is this year 2016 instead. Hillary could be hurt by President Obama's problems and yes Bernie Sanders could still hurt her too. It now looks like Jeb Bush might actually be the front-runner right now for the Republicans despite his family's former problems. I don't want another Bush but that looks very possible if not likely right now unfortunately. Hillary could have been challenged even more with a "non-Socialist" 20 years younger charismatic version of Sanders with similar viewpoints but it appears she got very lucky this time unlike 2008 when Obama suddenly came out of nowhere. It also doesn't look like Sanders will resonate with non-white voters the same way Obama did black voters especially, at least for now. The Republican nominee whomever that is will be a huge factor as well in 2016 Bush and yes trump too are doing much better in the polls than I ever thought they would. If the election were held today it probably be sad to say a "Clinton vs. Bush" race yet again (sad but true I hate that too but it looks very possible if not likely yet again sad to say). I'm still down myself we have more presidential candidates than ever before and yet every single one of them on both sides of the aisle suck except Hillary, and I'm really not that enthused by her either she's just the "least of all evils" choice. Kasich is probably the best Republican candidate right now but it doesn't look like he's going to resonate with the Republican base either white evangelicals especially. This map is only possible if my prior analysis is correct (which it very well may not be) and white evangelicals Pentecostals especially turn out big like I think they will this time, but that's not 100 percent set in stone either. It's still very, very early and Election Day is still 15 months away and that's an eternity in politics as we all well know by now. Wait and see as always.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 288 I'm officially starting to get worried right now. Donald Trump could actually win this thing believe it or not. :'( IA and OH traditional 50/50 "swing states" could actually be gone for us Dems right now believe it or not. NV and NH are both much closer than they definitely should be. Right now the "272 blue wall" is still holding strong it looks like thank God, because we Dems still might very well need it. On 538.com a ton of states are razor-thin close, and it just shouldn't be that way right now. It's more Hillary's missteps than anything Trump says or does right now. NH, CO, PA, and VA could actually be the states that decide this thing, in the order in the likelihood that Trump will carry each state. If even one of them vote Republican, Donald Trump will be our next president. There are still 4 days to go until Election Day and that is still an "eternity" in politics. Please Lord please don't let Trump win. Wait and see as always. I was mistaken, well kind of. Just noticed that Real Clear Politics actually had NH in Trump's column believe it or not! That's horrible news my friends, because New Hampshire is a part of that "272 blue wall" they've been talking about lately. There is a 90 percent chance that Trump will win this thing if NH goes Republican. It's kind of shades of 2000 all over again, with NH and FL once again the most important states in the nation. If this holds out then once as always it seems Florida Florida Florida could very well be the state that decides it all. Again! Also both ME-2 and NE-2 could actually come into play as well. Wouldn't that be crazy lol?! Wait and see as always! Version: 286 The 272 firewall map, which could actually be the way the election <br /> turns out believe it or not. Could ME-2 and NE-2 both decide this thing? It's possible. Wait and see as always. Version: 264 The debate looks like it really helped Hillary and hurt Trump. It's still far from over though it's still an "eternity" until Election Day. Wait and see as always. Version: 263 Things look much better for Hillary now after the 1st debate. Let's hope and pray it stays that way. Wait and see as always. Version: 260 :'( Version: 256 It's getting really scary now. Trump may actually win this thing, especially if either VA or CO flip they are the last in the "blue wall" right now, possibly PA too. Lord help us all if that's the case. Version: 255 Most depressing election ever in my entire lifetime. :-( Version: 252 I actually may favor Trump right now believe it or not, much to my intense dismay. It's really simple as this: If OH, IA, NC, and FL all swing Republican (actually hold Republican in NC's case), if the rest of the 2012 solid Romney and Obama states stay the same, which they almost certainly will except perhaps NV (why I have no idea why NV is so close as of right now actually in this particular scenario NV actually has no effect unlike either VA or CO or both flip as well) it now looks like, and VA and CO both remain out of play, which I now question for the very first time in quite a while as of now, Trump has to flip just one state out of these to win: MN, WI, MI, or PA as of right now, PA being the most likely but he still has a deficit to overcome in all 4 states. If VA and CO all of a sudden become close again, maybe one of them, which is possible but still a longshot (or so it seems) right now, that would be huge for Trump as well. But just a couple weeks ago we thought Hillary had a stranglehold on this election, which no longer seems to be the case. I now think it's very possible for Hillary to win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote believe it or not. That would be historic because she'd become the 1st Democratic presidential candidate ever to do so all the rest of them before were Republicans. That could still actually happen too believe it or not. However it's still an eternity away until Election Day in politics. I never thought Trump come close to winning the Republican primary, much less the presidency. I actually think Hillary is losing the election right now not Trump winning it. Wait and see as always! Version: 251 Trump's gaining ground and Hillary is losing it. :-( I'm getting very, very nervous right now. Please God please no. Wait and see as always. Version: 244 Trump could actually pull this thing off. It's getting very, very scary and very, very anxious and nervous for us Democrats right now. It's still an eternity until Election Day. Wait and see as always. Version: 242 Trump is actually gaining ground right now on Hillary much to my chagrin. I think it might actually be Hillary's problems hurting her much more than Trump helping himself. Needless to say I'm starting to get very nervous and very anxious about this. This is the most depressed I've ever felt about a presidential election in my entire lifetime, with 2012 the 2nd worst, and 1980 the absolute worst. Again more proof that Election Day 2016 is still an eternity away, and anything and everything can happen in politics, and already has. Wait and see as always. #DumpTrump2016 Version: 241 Trump seems to be gaining a little ground right now. Hillary's problems right now could very well be the reason,and also could come back to haunt her big time. I hope and pray she wins. Yes she's definitely not the ideal candidate but she's still much, much better than Trump 100 percent certain. Wait and see as always. Version: 239 For all the talk of a "realignment" map it looks like 2016's map as of right now looks almost exactly the same as 2008 and 2012: not much if any difference at all. As of right now the 2016 Electoral Map is still as inelastic as you can possibly get. I think really only 3 states plus the Omaha NE district are truly in play right now: AZ, GA, and NC. Perhaps a few others like IA but that's about it. The Republicans currently seem to be stuck in the same exact position in 2016 we Democrats were in 2008. Only difference is that Obama was a much better general election candidate in 2008 than Trump is in 2016, at least that's what it seems so far. Trump will have to dominate Hillary in the debates and dominate big time I think that's his only hope as of right now. But then Election Day is still an "eternity" away and you never know in politics. Wait and see as always! Version: 237 Looks like the Hillary "bounce" may finally be fading somewhat Trump has gained some in the polls during the past week. That should tell us Democrats this election is far from over. We can't let our guard down for one second. AZ and GA sadly but not surprisingly have trended back Republican the last week as well. It's still a long way until Election Day 2016 and you never know in politics anymore. Wait and see as always. Version: 232 Trump's only hope right now is the debates. He needs to not only win them but dominate them too. Wait and see as always. Version: 231 My latest prediction including the possible percentages of 3rd party candidates should they run. I had a rough time with it to say the least. Really no difference except possibly for UT where neither Hillary nor Trump is really liked out there right now. Wait and see as always! Version: 229 Trump's only hope now is most likely the debates. He not only needs to win them but to dominate them. However he could still gain ground even if he loses them believe it or not. At least that's what happened in the Republican primary. There is still a long way to go until Election Day though and that's an eternity in politics. We Dems can't celebrate just yet. Wait and see as always. Version: 228 This might even be overly generous towards Trump right now. He and the Republicans are in big trouble, except if you're in my home state of WV that is. WV will definitely be Trump's best state. Sad but true. :-( Nationwide though he is in huge trouble right now. When even SC and UT are "swing states,' and I most definitely believe they are in 2016, you know you're in trouble. Things can still change though there is still a long way to go until Election Day 2016 and politics changes daily, just like it has recently. Wait and see as always! Version: 222 Things are looking surprisingly a lot better for Hillary now thank God. Let's hope and pray this continues. :-) Version: 220 Looks like Trump has taken a rather surprising tumble in the polls the last few days. Hillary's convention bounce seems it like it's much larger than originally expected. Again you just never know in politics anymore which can and will change daily. That's very unexpected good news for us Democrats. Let's hope and pray that remains the case. Wait and see as always! Version: 218 For the very 1st time I sadly have to give Trump a slight advantage over Hillary, not because he's so popular himself, but because of Hillary's extreme unpopularity right now, which for the very 1st time ever exceeds Trump's in most major polls right now. I hope and pray I'm 100 percent wrong as always. Trump's supporters seem to be a lot more motivated than Hillary voters as well right now, much more so, and that really concerns me a whole lot too. PENNSYLVANIA PENNSYLVANIA PENNSYLVANIA looks like the deciding state as of right now. I think whoever wins PA will be our next president. Yes it has been solidly Democratic over the years, and hasn't gone Republican since 1988, but most polls there don't look good right now. I think my dreaded home state "West Virginia effect" even looks larger than I originally thought in PA, OH, NC (a lot of my fellow West Virginians have moved there over the years to find work), and VA too, and it it was very large even then. That could come back to bite Hillary in all four key "swing states" PA and OH especially. NV is surprisingly looking bad right now for Hillary as well. Probably CO, IA, and NH too. I have MN, WI, and MI all tossups right now but I wouldn't be surprised if Trump took one if not all three of them. There are still a ton of undecided voters too I've noticed, and I sadly think most of them will go to Trump after all is said and done. However as I've always said Election Day 2016 is still an eternity away and you never know what may happen until then, as politics changes daily. Wait and see as always! Version: 217 I'm starting to think that Hillary might actually lose this thing. She could even lose the popular vote but still win the election according to this particular map, which would make her the first and only Democratic presidential candidate ever to do so. Only one state has to flip in this particular scenario in order for her to lose to Trump. It could be PA, NV the two states most likely to flip in this scenario. Much less likely NH, VA, and MI in that order. Much less likely ME-2 and WI in that order. On the other side IA and CO could be iffy as well. Wait and see as always! Version: 214 The most likely Hillary victory map, giving or taking a few states and percentages, especially AZ, CO, IA, OH, PA, VA, and NC. This actually might be underestimating Hillary because I think Trump's choice for VP Pence was a very, very bad one. Whether it will help or hurt Trump at all though remains to be seen. Lately however the American people have usually voted just for the top of the ticket and not because of the VP choice. Wait and see as always. Version: 213 The most logical Trump victory map. I don't think Trump will win but if he did I think this would be the most logical and most likely map, give or take CO and IA, and possibly NH. The percentages could be a little off too. I think Trump has to have PA, which could be tough since no Republican has won it since 1988. Wait and see as always. Version: 212 This might even be too generous towards the GOP. Trump needed to hit the VP pick "out of the park" but it looks like he "struck out" instead lol. Still Election Day 2016 is a long way away and politics changes daily. But as a Democrat I'm much more confident about Hillary's chances now than I was before. Pence is a complete disaster I at least thought Trump was more intelligent than to pick someone like Pence. I guess not though. Also this could breathe new life to the GOP establishment at the Republican convention as well. That could make things interesting there as far as that is concerned too. Wait and see as always. Version: 211 The recent polls currently bad for Hillary, especially the one in PA. It now looks like PA, FL, CO, OH, VA, IA, and NH are the key states in this election. We Dems definitely cannot lose PA unless we are able to hang onto FL. VA is looking good right now but a heavy western and southern VA turnout especially if it's 75-25 for Trump, could make the VA the "nasty surprise" of 2016. We Dems are automatically assuming VA will stay Democratic, and if that's 100 percent true that's a major, major mistake on our part. If we lose both PA and OH, we Dems have to keep VA, FL, CO, IA, and NH on our side, or else we're in huge trouble. They're saying Trump's top three VP picks are Pence, Gingrich, and Christie. That is actually very good news for us Dems believe it or not, since all three of them suck big time and I don't think the American people will like any of those three. Well Trump could have had much better choices for VP but he alienated them all. The "West Virginia effect" could be huge too in OH, PA, VA, and NC. That might actually be the reason we Dems are struggling mightily in the polls in OH and PA right now, and could very well hurt us in VA and NC too. I think the current racial strife and also the email scandal are hurting Hillary most of all, and I think Obama is definitely hurting Hillary as well, especially in the 4 states above, especially the states with the "West Virginia effect." It's still an eternity until Election Day, and things can and will change daily. Wait and see as always! Version: 210 As of now it looks good for Hillary, but as we all know by now things change in politics very quickly. I actually might be too generous to her here. The email scandal could still hurt her a lot as well. Still too many tossup states for us Dems to breathe easily. PA being in play is never a good sign. Still watch the "West Virginia effect" too in key swings OH, PA, VA, and perhaps NC (a lot of West Virginians go to NC to try to find work). It's still a virtual eternity until Election Day. Wait and see as always! Version: 209 Revised Trump best case scenario. While this is very, very unlikely to happen (especially WA, OR, and NM) I think it's now more possible than ever if the Dallas police shootings turn more people against Obama and Hillary and for Trump. Wait and see as always! Version: 208 Hillary best case scenario. Even then my home state of WV will probably be at least 60/40 Republican. Not even OK will be that "blood red" in 2016. (Atlas "blue") It's sad my friends it really is. :-( I've also going to revise my "best case Trump scenario" map based on the tragic shootings recently. It's sadly a lot more favorable to Republicans (which I guess my Republican friends on here will like) than my last "best case Trump scenario map." I think Obama's popularity will take a huge hit because of this deservedly or not, also and because of increased racism and worse race relations whether technically he's to blame or not once again. I do think he's definitely at least somewhat to blame sadly enough that's very unusual for a white liberal like myself to say that, but definitely not 100 percent to blame. Racists from all sides blacks and whites especially have become more open about their racism more so than ever before at least in my lifetime. I think social media shares a lot of the blame too. The Internet has caused a lot of this crap too unfortunately. All I can say is "Wait and see as always." This country is in huge trouble right now. I can't stand Trump at all but I'm not really thrilled about Hillary either. I now definitely wish Bernie had won the Democratic primary but sadly that didn't happen. I still support Hillary but only because she is definitely the "least of all evils." This country really hasn't had what you've called a really, really good president in a long, long time Republican or Democratic. It's sad my friends it really is. Wait and see as always. Version: 207 Trump best case scenario. Hillary best case scenario coming up next map if I can remember to do so. Version: 206 Could this be the very 1st presidential election ever to have the same identical Electoral College map as the prior election? Could very well happen in 2016 believe it or not. NC, CO and AZ could very well determine that, even in a Hillary-Donald matchup. I now think there won't be as many changes to the Electoral College map at all except in a landslide, especially with polls now showing Donald ahead of Hillary in NC. That's how inelastic the Electoral Map is right now, even in a sharply divided 50/50 country which you wouldn't think would be the case at all. I thought NC definitely would shift but the last PPP poll had Trump winning there by a slim margin. It will also be interesting to see if the recent poll showing Hillary ahead of Trump in double digits is legit. I don't think it is. But if it indeed is states like AZ could shift, and definitely NC. Perhaps IN, MO, GA, the Omaha NE district, maybe even a few others. Even then most states still seem to be rock solid right now even at that. Wait and see as always. Version: 201 The "swing states" are CO, IA, OH, VA, NC, FL, PA, and NH. Hillary has at least a slight advantage in the Electoral College right now, but knowing American politics like I do it's still very, very possible that Trump can win unfortunately. However Trump is definitely at a disadvantage now. It could very well boil down to just three states: VA, PA, and NH. For Trump to win he's got to keep all the Romney states, NC the most important one of those, flip CO, IA, OH, and FL every single one of them, and win at least one of VA, PA, and NH. That is a very tall order. And it could even be harder if AZ votes Democratic too, but I don't think that will happen except in a very decisive Hillary victory. Maybe Trump surprisingly carrying a Midwestern state like MI or WI but that's highly unlikely too. It can be done but the odds are definitely against Trump right now since since VA, PA, and NH are all at least slightly Democratic at the present time. PA is probably the most likely right now of three states to flip with NH the least likely, and VA in between. It's not impossible for Trump to win, but he's definitely at a disadvantage in the Electoral College right now, unless there is a "wave" election where he wins all the "swing states" every single one of them. That is still possible especially if Obama tanks in the polls and hurts Hillary in the process, and that is very possible as well. I think the polls might be underestimating Trump a bit as well. Yes I know it's WV which will probably be Trump's number 1 state of them all and Hillary's worst, but Republicans here are very excited about this election right now, and that has me worried. The Republican turnout has actually been much higher in most states even the solidly "blue" ones than Democratic turnout in the primaries as well, and that worries me greatly too. It's kind of weird that in a 50/50 country like we have that so few states are "swing states" right now but that's definitely the case. Obama was able to change the electoral map some, putting NM, NV, CO, and VA firmly in his column, and even NC and IN in 2008, but in doing so he had to give up any and all hope for Dems at present in the future too in states like WV, AR, MO, and KY in the process states which all could have been Hillary's in 2008, except perhaps for KY which still might have been too Republican anyway. The Electoral Map is very, very inelastic right now my friends. That said it would be a catastrophic mistake for Hillary and us Dems to take Trump lightly. The Republican establishment did just that and it cost them big time. I'm afraid we Democrats might very well make the same exact mistake too. And whether that can or will happen remains to be seen. Again it's Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire who will be the key states this time, and that's only if Trump wins all of CO, OH, FL, IA, and NC and Trump has to win all 5 of those states if he loses even one of those he almost certainly cannot and will not win, plus keep all the Romney states NC , which it does look like Trump will still be able to able to do even AZ which would be close but I still think Trump carries it, even with a heavy Hispanic turnout, as AZ is still way too Republican even with a heavy Hispanic vote. NV could be the other interesting state in reverse for us Dems if the Republicans can somehow surprise us there, and that too is very unlikely but still possible. It's still a long way to go until Election Day. Wait and see as always. #DumpTrump2016 Version: 197 If Hillary wins (and that's a huge "if" right now) this will probably be the map. NC and CO are definitely 50/50 and could go either way. Wait and see as always. Version: 196 This is a "generic" Trump victory. It's not as nearly as far-fetched as I originally thought it was. I hope and pray I'm wrong. I say this is very possible right now due to the fact that Republicans have been turning out in much higher numbers in the primaries than we Dems have, and that is scary indeed. Also the enthusiasm for Trump, even with his negative approval ratings, is a lot louder than the enthusiasm for Hillary right now. It's sad it really is. It's kind of like 2008 in reverse, when we Democrats wanted to win so badly to get the Republicans out of there because of Bush Jr., except in 2016 it's the Republicans wanting the Democrats out of office because of Obama, and to a somewhat lesser extent both of the Clintons Hillary especially. We Dems wondered how we could possibly break through the "Republican wall" and Obama did so, while aligning the Electoral map permanently in the process. Or so it seemed. Well this time Republicans are wondering how to break through the "Democratic wall" in 2016, with Trump breaking the "Republican wall," and possibly realigning the Electoral map in the process. And it seems possible more than ever believe it or not. It could actually happen this time in my honest opinion. I definitely hope and pray I'm wrong. It's still a long way until Election Day 2016 though. Wait and see as always. Version: 195 Well it looks like the field is finally set it's "Hillary vs. the Donald." Should be interesting. I just hope and pray my fellow Bernie supporters around Hillary. Yes she might not be perfect but she's still much, much better than Trump 100 percent certain. It looks like a close race but who knows right now? It's still a long way to go until Election Day and anything and everything can still happen in politics. Wait and see as always. Version: 193 The "moderate" 270-268 firewall map. It's beginning to look more and more possible that this scenario may actually happen believe it or not. I actually have Trump as a slight favorite right now believe it or not. I most definitely hope and pray that changes. The "Hillary winning the Electoral College but not the Popular Vote" scenario could very well happen too. The reason I say that is because I think Trump will do better in the "blue" (Atlas "red") Democratic states than Hillary will in the "red" (Atlas "blue") Republican states. I think this is one of those rare elections that this could possibly happen. She would be the first Democratic nominee to ever pulled that off if that ever occured. Wait and see as always. Version: 192 Based on the latest Quinnipiac poll, which had Hillary up 45-41. And they usually lean slightly Republican too. Don't let that fool you though as I've always said it's an eternity until Election Day 2016. If we Dems take Trump lightly he could still pull this off, just like the Republican establishment took him lightly in their primary and paid for it big time. We Dems can't afford to do that and Hillary needs to run a much better general election campaign in 2016 better than she did the primary elections in 2008 and 2016. Wait and see as always. Version: 191 Electoral map as of today May 31, 2016 no VP candidate listed. Notice this is the map "as of right now." Sadly I don't think it will hold up unfortunately. Right now I have Trump as a 60/40 favorite over Hillary. I hope and pray I'm 100 percent wrong. The VP candidates usually don't matter at all but they could very well this year especially for Trump. Wait and see as always. Hope and pray all of y'all had a nice Memorial Day. :-) Version: 190 I now think for the very 1st time that Trump will actually pull this off believe it or not. I hope and pray I'm 100 percent wrong. I definitely think Bernie would blow the Donald out but I don't think Hillary will even win by a small margin unfortunately. In fact I for the very 1st time think she's a solid underdog to Trump as well as of right now May 28, 2016. I also think that the "bathroom" issue, and probably the "refugees" and religious issues, along with both Hillary and Obama's increasing unpopularity among white middle-class voters, are hurting here a lot more than the media says they do, and even a lot more so than I originally thought they would. The email controversy will probably hurt her somewhat even more. I hope and pray I'm 100 percent wrong as always. I'm saddened most of all about my home state WV and KY a state I really love too being ultra-conservative right wing fascist Dominionist states. And as a Christian myself that really, really hurts me to no end. Never ever did I dream of WV ever being the GOP's number 1 state in any election but that looks very likely as of right now, and KY will at least be a top 5 GOP state. Now that I think of it I'm really shocked that WV was ever a Democratic state to begin with. It was almost exclusively because of the once powerful UMWA coal miners' union and really nothing else it now looks like. And now the UMWA has 0 power at all it now looks like. Most of the "Democrats" who ran the state before were really DINOs instead, except for the powerful labor influence and that's it it now looks like as well. I still think we Democrats can win, but only if we turn out in record numbers, and I highly doubt that black voters will do that with Obama not on the ticket, and even they are starting slowly but surely are becoming less enthused with Hillary and yes even Obama himself as well. I know it's WV but the Trump voters are turning out big time in record numbers while Hillary's turnout has been flat at best. If that happens in November and if it happens in the rest of the country too just like it has here in WV this map might even be not generous enough for Trump. It also looks like the racism will be too much for Hillary to overcome as well sad to say. Of course there is an "eternity" to go until Election Day 2016 and anything and everything can and will happen in politics. Wait and see as always. #DumpTrump2016 Version: 189 Not going to be as easy as I and most of my fellow Democrats originally thought it would be. Election Day 2016 is still an "eternity" away and anything and everything can still happen in politics. Wait and see as always. Version: 188 Hope and pray the "270 firewall" holds. That actually might be the only chance we Dems have in 2016. In fact it's not out of the realm of possibility that Trump could win the popular vote but Hillary the Electoral College. If that happens Hillary would be the 1st Democratic presidential candidate to ever win that way. It's very, very possible too believe it or not. I'm very, very worried about this right now Trump is surging and Hillary is slipping. Hopefully and prayerfully when she officially clinches the nomination the Democratic Party will unite behind her like the Republicans have under Trump. The Democrats rallied behind Obama for the most part in 2008, except for Appalachia and parts of the South. Bernie and Hillary supporters need to do so once again in order to stop Trump. Trump is your enemy my fellow Democrats not Bernie and not Hillary. If not it's a real possibility that Hillary could actually lose this thing believe it or not. So far the Trump voters have turned out big time in the primaries. That really worries me right now, and I don't see them not turning out in the general election either. They are much more excited about "the Donald" than they are Hillary supporters about Hillary right now. It looks like VA and PA are the key states this time. Sadly CO, IA, NC, and worst of all OH and FL could very well slip out of reach for Hillary if things keep going the way they are right now, if they haven't already. If Trump is president he will completely destroy the U.S.A. as we now know it. Election Day 2016 is still an eternity away from us and anything and everything can happen in politics. Wait and see as always. Looks like yet another squeaker of an election folks. We live in a 50/50 nation right now. Even at that there are still very, very few true "swing states." The vast majority of states are still very solid one way or the other right now despite that. Version: 187 My generic Trump victory map, as of today May 22, 2016. The polls are sadly trending rather heavily in his direction, and Hillary is losing ground. :-( Hopefully it's just a temporary thing and that's it but the momentum is sadly definitely in Trump's favor as of now. Maybe after the official nomination of Hillary takes place it will stem the tide, but I am only 50/50 on that as of now. Wait and see as always! Version: 186 Looks like a much closer election than I originally thought it would be. We Dems better not take Trump likely, like the Republican establishment did, or else Donald Trump could actually pull this thing off believe it or not just like he did the Republican primary. Trump's supporters have been turning out in droves so far during primary season. Sadly I just don't see the same thing for Hillary right now. If this continues it's not out of the realm of possibility that Trump could actually win this thing. We need to "dump Trump" at all costs. If not this country as we know it today is doomed. Wait and see until always. #DumpTrump2016 Version: 185 Could Hillary still win the electoral college without winning the popular vote? That could actually be very possible believe it or not. If it is she would be the 1st ever Democratic candidate to ever to do so. All that did so before were Republicans. Version: 184 Could Hillary actually lose this thing? Rasmussen has Trump up over her by 5 points right now, with a ton of undecideds, which is not good either because I think they very well may favor Trump over Hillary too. But Rasmussen still skews very much Republican most of the time. Still it doesn't like the landslide I first thought it would be. Hillary may be in big trouble it now seems. Yes I know it's WV but here right now the Trump voters are turning out big time more so than the Hillary voters. If this happens nationwide as well we Dems could really be in big trouble. Once again this is further proof as I always say that Election Day 2016 is still an eternity away and anything and everything can and will happen in politics. No one myself included thought Trump had a prayer of winning the Republican nomination, much less the presidency, and that Hillary would be struggling so badly against Bernie too right now as well. Right now the key states are VA, PA, and IA it looks like, possibly CO as well. It looks like it now may be far from a sure thing for us Democrats. Wait and see as always. Version: 180 Florida could go either way in this scenario. It depends upon Cuban American turnout and percentage there. This Hispanic vote could help Hillary keep Colorado but it alone, as she probably would lose CO if it weren't for that. Iowa is interesting too but I think it's still Democratic enough to keep in Hillary's column. Ohio is 50/50 too but slightly leaning Republican right now in large part to the part bordering my home state of West Virginia. Virginia looks good but you never know. Watch out for Pennsylvania it could be a wild card too. Wait and see as always. Version: 179 Some very troubling poll numbers for Hillary vs. Trump have led me to this map. I hope and pray I'm 100 percent wrong. As I always say "there is still an eternity until Election Day 2016, and anything can and will happen in politics." I'm very, very disappointed that close to 80 percent of the Republicans in my home state voted for Trump, and I sadly think he'll get a lot of Democratic primary voters both for Sanders or Clinton Sanders especially in the general. I'm also very troubled that Republicans and conservative independents and Democrats are turning out in droves for Trump right now, at least in WV. If that's true in other states as well we're in deep, deep trouble. This is WV though so hopefully and prayerfully it's not nearly as bad in the rest of the country as it is here in my home state. It's sad that WV is a right-wing fascist state right now it really is. :'( This election basically boils down to VA, PA, OH, and perhaps FL. Sadly VA, PA, and OH all three have very, very strong WV connections, which concerns me even more. :-( Wait and see as always. #DumpTrump2016. Version: 177 For all the talk of expanding or contracting the electoral map I think only one state changes NC for us Democrats, and possibly the Omaha district in NE, and that's it, even in 2016. The current electoral map is still very inelastic right now, even in a 50/50 country which the U.S. is right now. Most states are either navy blue or blood red, with very, very few "swing states" right now, and I still don't see that changing in 2016 no matter who's the nominee for both sides. It's kind of weird that most states are still rock solid even in a 50/50 country that we have right now but they still are, and I still don't see that changing, but maybe I'm wrong as always. It's still a long way until Election Day 2016 and anything and everything can still happen in politics. Wait and see as always. Version: 175 It looks very good for us Democrats right now, but don't underestimate Donald Trump. No one myself included thought he had a snowball's chance in hell of winning the Republican nomination. The same could be true for the presidency as well if we Dems take him lightly. The upcoming debates between Hillary and Trump could be some of the most watched debates in presidential election history. Hillary has big time baggage too, which I'm 100 percent certain Trump will try to exploit. It's still a long way until Election Day 2016, and anything can will happen in politics, and already has so far in 2016. On a more personal note those of you who do pray and also those of you who just believe in well wishes and them alone remember a good friend of mine tonight they are hurting and I am hurting too. Thank y'all for all your concern. Wait and see as always. Version: 174 I hope and pray we Dems aren't underestimating Trump right now. If we are it's a huge mistake. Oh here in West Virginia they're absolutely worshiping the guy. Oh they think there is no one like Donald Trump. I usually feel like I'm a "lone wolf" here. Sad but true. Version: 170 #DumpTrump2016 Trump is like a rock star here in West Virginia almost everybody loves him here except for me. :-( Version: 169 Everybody here almost all white evangelicals Pentecostals especially loves Trump and worships the guy too it seems even though he's not a Christian at all. They think he's going to wave a magic wand and the coal mines will automatically rebound and that they'll "get their guns back" too. It's sad my friends it really is. :-( Version: 168 #DumpTrump2016 Version: 166 I hope and pray that Hillary supporters and Bernie supporters will quit attacking each other. We're going to need both Hillary supporters and Bernie supporters too in November in order to stop Trump, Cruz, Kasich, or any other Republican. And in a bold prediction I think that WV will be the Republicans' best state and KY their 2nd best in November, even more so than even WY, ID, and UT (?!?!?!?!?!) believe it or not , especially if Trump's the nominee. Only OK I think can challenge KY and WV, which is sad because I love both states but sadly the people here have sadly been threatened with "burning in hell forever and ever" if they vote Democratic, and also deceived into thinking the coal mines will reopen big time if a Republican is elected president and once Obama is out of office, when in reality coal is on "life support" if not already dead, and will remain so no matter who's president Republican or Democratic. WV and KY are both right-wing fascist Dominionist states right now WV especially. I never ever dreamed that would ever be the case in my entire lifetime, especially with WV and KY's rich Democratic traditions. :'( Version: 156 I've noticed that Trump has a Western problem. AZ could flip, MT could be 50/50, AK its most Democratic since 1964, and CO could be much more solidly Democratic than this, as the only reason for that is Hillary is hated in CO for whatever reason just as much as Trump is. And he could do the worst in the West of any GOP presidential nominee since Goldwater in 1964, although he'll still almost certainly hold on to least UT, ID, and WY despite some crazy polls recently. It's still a very real possibility he might not crack 60 percent in any of those states though. In fact I'm going to go out on a limb and say Hillary will actually do better in IDAHO than she will in WEST VIRGINIA believe it or not! If you had told me that as late as one month ago I would have told you that you were both drunk and stoned at the same time lol. It would be absolutely crazy and unprecedented if that does indeed happen. Wait and see as always. Version: 153 #DumpTrump2016 My home state of West Virginia is now officially a right-wing fascist state. It will be Trump's best state by far in 2016. He might even win 75 to 80 percent of the vote here. I'm receiving major duty blowback right now due to my Democratic politics. I never ever dreamed that would ever happen in my lifetime, especially us being so solidly Democratic over the years, even voting for Carter in 1980 and Dukakis in 1988 when almost all the rest of the nation went Republican. It's sad my friends it really is. Version: 152 #DumpTrump2016 Version: 149 Hillary's comments on coal miners today even though I firmly confident they were taken out of context could very well cost Democrats the key swing states of OH, VA, and possibly even PA as well. I think OH is most likely gone now unfortunately. It won't cost her too many votes there but it still could cost her just enough votes to cost her OH, as you don't need to lose very many votes in number or in percentage either to swing a 50/50 state like OH one way or the other. I'm much more concerned about PA and VA now as well. The polls in VA looked very good for us Dems for us but I'm not so certain now. PA is now a officially a 50/50 dead heat if it wasn't before and believe it or not PA could now be the state that decides it all believe it or not. It all depends on who turns out more: western PA or the Philadelphia suburbs. If western PA turns out more we Dems are in big, big trouble. The same is true for VA: VA west of Lynchburg and other small town and rural areas vs. the Wash DC suburbs and the major urban areas of VA. If westenr VA turns out more it's bad news for us Dems once again. Sad but true. FL now looks like the state that will decide it all. Trump is surprisingly doing very well down there now, despite FL probably not being a good fit for Trump, but he is still doing very well down there against both Hillary and Bernie right now for whatever reason I currently have no clue right now as to why he's doing so darn well down there especially with the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale metro area not being a good fit at all for him for whatever reason. If either Hillary or Bernie (most likely Hillary it looks like right now unfortunately) can still beat Donald and hold onto FL that might still save us Dems if we lose just OH and VA, but it would definitely be counteracted if we Dems lose PA as well. Sad but true. Perhaps AZ could be a possible "wildcard" too because of the anti-Donald vote among Hispanic voters out there but I'm not holding my breath, possibly CO as well. Trump is rather weak out west right now I've noticed which is definitely good news for us Dems, especially considering his weakness among Hispanic voters. However her coal comments could her some too, but mostly in WY which was already gone for us Dems anyway. However Hillary is rather weak out west with white voters which could very well hurt her too, especially in the key swing state of CO, but the good news is that Trump is not a good fit for CO either, especially with Hispanic voters. That coal comment sadly might have very been the major "historic gaffe" Donald Trump and his supporters were waiting for, even though I firmly believe her remarks were definitely taken out of context. However most of the people here are very much uneducated sad to say and can't "read between the lines" like I can, and they are sadly already buying this "hook, line, and sinker." Sad but true. Hillary will now definitely lose 70 percent in WV and 60 percent in KY. WV will almost certainly now be Trump's best state no matter what now, and now KY could even be her 2nd worst state. I never ever dreamed that would ever happen to us Dems before in my entire lifetime. Sad but true. It's still an eternity until Election Day 2016 and anything and everything can happen in politics, and may just have today. I highly doubt that will help Bernie enough to win the nomination though as much as I want it too, and will probably hurt him here too in the general election as well. Wait and see as always. :'( Version: 147 Please Lord please don't let Donald Trump become president. The country already has a lot of racial unrest and turmoil as it is right now. Sadly it also looks like WV will be Trump's best state. I never ever dreamed that WV would ever be the most Republican state in a presidential election in my entire lifetime. :'( #DumpTrump2016 Version: 145 Based on the latest polls here in WV. It now looks like a better than 50/50 chance Trump will not only win WV but now it will be his absolute best state as well. That's very, very depressing for me. However even worse than WV (it was never going to be in play anyway) is that OH and even worse VA and possibly even PA, all three key swing states, could all go Republican because of the Appalachian areas, as it now looks like us Dems will be weaker there than I even thought we would, and it was already going to be a struggle for us in the 1st place. PA I now still have on our side but it's far from a sure thing, depending upon Philadelphia and its suburbs. VA is virtually 50/50 now and could go either way. It all depends upon turnout in the Appalachian areas vs. the rest of the states. WV won't mean anything but OH, PA, and VA will. This also makes CO, IA, and FL (even though it's not looking for us there either right now) much more important for us Dems as well, especially if we lose PA and/or VA, which looks like a very real possibility for us now. Wait and see as always. Version: 144 Clinton vs. Trump as of March 2, 2016. No VP candidate listed as of yet but that could be huge. This is according to the recent CNN polls. Hillary actually does worse than Bernie in general election among Dems and Trump the worst among the Republicans, but as of now they look like the two nominees barring a major gaffe by either side. However I don't know if even that could stop Trump right now though I think many Republicans love Trump so much they'd vote for him no matter what stupid comments he will say unfortunately. Sadly they are our two choices it now looks like as much as I hate it. I'm not the biggest Hillary fan in the world but I'll still gladly take her over Donald 100 percent certain. It would have been interesting to see what have happened if the South weren't included I think Bernie would have had a much better shot and Trump a lot worse. Hillary can thank God for the South this is one of the rare instances where southern blacks and southern whites voted the same exact way, just like they did with Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. That actually worked out very well for both of them Carter in '76 and especially Bill Clinton in '92 and '96. However all the South is much more Republican now than then even with Bill Clinton. I think we Democrats might very well have this one believe it or not. The one thing though that could hurt us the most though is turnout, and this map could be very generous to us Dems as the Republican turnout has been very, very higher than normal so far. The Dems' turnout has been great too but still nothing like the Reps, and that is definitely the main concern for me as of now. I'm also very worried about the debates between them too it seems like Donald can say anything he darn well pleases and gets away with it, while Hillary on the other hand is vilified for the tiniest mistake, at least that's the way I see it as of right now. Hillary currently leads Donald 52 to 44 percent, and that's what this map is currently based on. As expected here in my neck of the woods Trump did very well among the Republicans. However the Dems' result is kind of surprising to me Hillary won most coal counties over Bernie 60 to 40. I thought it would be more overwhelming one way or another that's about a "middle of the road" result for this particular area. And what really alarmed me here is that the Reps outvoted the Dems big time. I don't know though if VA has an open primary or a closed one like WV and KY do. I could understand this more in an open primary than a closed one since Dems here still technically outnumber Reps here in voter registration despite losing big here most of the time recently nationwide. If it indeed is a closed primary instead we Dems are in big, big trouble on the other hand. The final 2016 electoral map result might actually be much closer than this. Turnout is very, very important this time I can't stress that enough, among all demographics. If the Republican turnout is as high in the general election as it is in the primaries Donald could actually pull this off. If that's the case we Dems have to turnout big time as well, and I am not sure whether we'll do that or not, judging from our past history. But I think even a moderately increased turnout among Dems and we should be okay. Independents will be huge too. It seems like most of them don't like either candidate, but I'm very worried there too they might like Donald a little more than Hillary as well. That too is a concern. It's amazing that we live in virtually a 50/50 country yet there are still so few battleground states, and I still don't see that changing this year either, even with the very unpopular Hillary and unpopular Donald on their respective tickets. However the bases of both parties love them both it looks like, which actually is kind of surprising to me especially among Republicans. The electoral map as of right still now seems very inelastic despite Trump and his strange appeal or turnoff to many voters on all sides of the political spectrum. Even though we Dems are leading Trump in most general election polls right now it would be a catastrophic mistake for us to underestimate Donald, especially since he's done and said so many strange things already and still allowed to get away with it and is still going on strong despite that. It could still very well be a nailbiter when all is said and done. This to me is the current map as of right now. Whether that will eventually change or not definitely remains to be seen. Sadly WV I now think as of now is at least Trump's 3rd best state, if not his outright best. Only OK and UT I think are more Republican than WV, and perhaps not even UT due to many Mormon voters being very, very skeptical of him. Sadly I don't even think ID and WY like Trump as much as WV, as it seems that Trump is not nearly as popular in the western states even solidly Republican ones as he is here in Appalachia right now, much to my chagrin. The Republican establishment if they want Trump beaten has to unite behind one candidate and one candidate only and convince all the rest to drop out, but that's very unlikely as of now it now looks like especially knowing American politics like I do. There is still an eternity left until Election Day 2016, and anything and everything can and will happen in politics, and Trump's shockingly apparent victory in the Republican primary is proof positive of that. Still a long way to go folks. Sadly I fear this presidential election will be a lot closer than what this current map indicates. I hope and pray I'm wrong and that American voters will be smarter than this but I am not sure as of right now sad to say. Wait and see as always. Version: 143 It all boils down to VIRGINIA VIRGINIA VIRGINIA as of right now it currently looks like. It all depends upon who turns out more: the heavily Republican Appalachian voters in most of western VA and in all of the rest of rural VA as well, or the heavily Democratic voters in the Washington DC suburbs, major urban areas, and Hampton Roads area. The minority turnout both in number and in percentage absolutely means everything as well. VA is as close as you can possibly get right now: a definite 50/50 tossup. Despite most polls currently having VA in our Democrats' favor, I think that the Appalachian voters who are very heavily Republican and even more so than usual especially in my neck of the woods here in coal country are much more motivated to vote than I've even seen them in my entire lifetime, and the economy here is the worst since the 1980s "coal bust" with yet a similar "coal bust" today, and they all blame Obama for it as you probably expect, and will take out all their frustrations on either Hillary or Bernie (probably Hillary it now looks like) and sadly definitely vote for the GOP nominee (they definitely will vote for Trump in the Republican primary which is actually just next week but will support any Republican no matter whom in the general election). Hillary/Bernie looks surprisingly very interesting here in my part of VA as well believe it or not. I've been told by a good friend of mine that most polls in the Appalachian part of VA actually have Bernie beating Hillary and by a very surprisingly huge margin believe it or not. I found it impossible to believe at first until he told me that they hate Hillary big time because they think she supported Obama and his policies way too much, so much so they'd vote for anybody over her, even a "socialist" candidate like Sanders, which is really saying something since they actually hate "socialist" candidates here big time no matter what skin color they are. Yes they hate Hillary that much simply because they perceive her being a "rubber stamp" for Obama whom all they hate even more than life itself. Let us put it this way: if Obama were the Democrat and satan was his Republican opponent satan would still crush Obama by a landslide, and even the white evangelicals especially the Pentecostals I always talk to you about would vote heavily for the old devil himself that's how much they hate Obama here. But they actually consider Obama as satan himself anyway, and also really consider Hillary the devil as well, simply because they perceive her as a "rubber stamp" for him and all his policies, especially those destroying coal mining. Usually voters in southwestern VA are the least likely to turnout as you might expect both in percentage and in number, but according to all my present observations here where I live I actually think they are far more motivated to vote than I've ever seen them before in a long, long time because they feel their own way of life is under attack and their very survival depends upon this election, which most of them see is by far the "most important presidential election ever in the history of coal country," and the "coal bust" has hurt southern WV, eastern KY, and southwestern VA really badly recently especially here in McDowell County WV where I live, and Tazewell County VA which borders us has also recently been hit big time as well. Obama is hated more than satan here by "Christians" that's how unpopular he is here, and because they perceive Hillary as supported the "war on coal" declared upon us by Obama they all hate her just as much as Obama, which is really saying something because they all once even worshiped the Clintons here both Bill and Hillary they once loved both of them so much. Not anymore though. Sad but true. The only question is will the heavily Democratic areas of VA override heavily Republican southwestern VA and also the rest of rural VA and other heavily Republican areas this time as well especially the Washington DC suburbs, major urban areas Richmond especially, and the Hampton Roads area? Right now I sadly think for the very 1st time we won't, despite all the good polls showing us Dems ahead in VA, but still only by a whisker and only by the very slightest of margins. I'm telling you VA could very well be the 2016 version of "Florida 2000" and no I'm not joking either yes it could be that close believe it or not. It all depends upon which side turns out their base voters the most, and how independents vote as well they could literally go either way right now according to my present observations of my neighbor to the east the "OTHER" VIRGINIA. VIRGINIA VIRGINIA VIRGINIA could very well go either way it looks like as of right now. It also depends heavily upon the exact nominees, especially in a 50/50 state like VA where literally every single vote counts. Wait and see as always. Version: 142 Donald Trump you're no Ronald Reagan not even close. Version: 141 It now looks like Trump is the Republican favorite as of right now. However even in victory he only received 1/3 of the vote so he can still be stopped, but the anti-Trump supporters have to unite behind one single candidate they can't wait even one single day longer. That's the only way it now looks like. That means that all of the remaining Republican candidates will all have to "swallow their pride," drop out of the race immediately (I'm 100 percent serious on this too), and unite behind just one candidate, and nominate an opponent, most likely Rubio. I don't see that happening though right now, knowing politics in America the way I do. But then as I've always said before "anything and everything is possible in politics, and can and will happen." I am really, really disappointed in my fellow Christians right now most of all though Pentecostals especially, supporting a man who isn't even close to being a follower of Jesus and his teachings. Sadly they absolutely love him here in Appalachia where I live too. It's sad it really is. The Republicans should have won in 2012 and should be winning here in 2016 too but they're doing exactly what us Democrats did in 2000 and 2004, self-destructing big time. If Trump wins the general election this country is officially finished I believe. Sad but true. I hope and pray my fellow Americans are smarter than that. Wait and see as always. Version: 140 Looks like the Republicans may very well nominate Trump and once again blow a golden opportunity to win back the White House, just like they did in 2012. When West Virginia is your best state you know something is wrong. I'm definitely disappointed that Trump's best state is indeed WV of all places. I just thank God he's not nearly as popular everywhere else. But WV is actually Sarah Palin's best state too so sadly I shouldn't be surprised unfortunately. And most people here are great people too they are not the narcissistic racists that people outside of WV make them out to be. But people here actually think it's "God's will" that Trump will be elected and that "you'll burn in hell forever and ever" if you don't vote for him. It's sad that my fellow West Virginians are misled so easily politically and worst of all religiously as well by the evangelical and Pentecostal leadership here. It didn't used to be that way even Democrats Carter in 1980 and Dukakis in 1988 still both carried WV even in Democratic blowout losses nationwide. Even a majority of white Pentecostals voted Democratic back then, or least a solid minority of them. People here actually think the coal mines are going to automatically pick up once Trump is elected and that he'll deport all illegal aliens. Sadly it just doesn't work that way but they all think it will. I'm disappointed in my fellow Pentecostals most of all. They all support Trump big time, and there is virtually little to no evidence that Trump is even a Christian at all. I even doubt if he's 100 percent anti-abortion to be perfectly honest with you. They have officially sold their souls unfortunately. It's sad my friends it really is. But if we Democrats have to forsake WV for good than so be it. It's sad but that's "just the way it's gonna have to be" as people always say here it now looks like. Wait and see as always. Version: 139 Sanders(D) vs. Kasich(R) vs. Trump(I) I am not too good at 3-way maps lol. I think Trump would do his best in Appalachia and the Mid-South obviously. Whether that would allow him to actually win any states I don't know but if he did my guess is he'd carry WV and KY of course, along with a few others. The base Republican Party would probably only carry ID, UT, WY, and NE-3 and that's it. Maybe ND, SD, KS, and NE-2. GA, SC, MS, LA, and perhaps even MO and KS could go either way between all three candidates. A very humiliating defeat for Republicans in every single way possible. I have Sanders as the Dem nominee which if that's the case it would really be rough for Republicans. Hillary would probably carry AR and SC too, perhaps even KS, KY, and TN if she were the nominee instead lol. WV (sad but true Trump is considered a god here :-( by my fellow West Virginians) and OK are still solidly Trump unfortunately, probably AL too. I still don't think a 3-way race would happen but hey I have always said before "Anything and everything is possible in politics" lol. And with Trump as nutty as he is I now think it's at least somewhat possible you never know with him lol. This would be crazy lol. The only thing I hate about this is that sadly worst of all my home state of WV would actually be Trump's very best state unfortunately. That would probably be crazy too lol. This is kind of like the Woodrow Wilson-William Howard Taft-Teddy Roosevelt presidential election in 1912 in some ways that's what this particular scenario reminds me of. Wait and see as always! Version: 138 I think Scalia's passing will help the Republicans more than Democrats since the Republican base white evangelicals especially seems to care much more about the Supreme Court than most Democrats do. I hope and pray I'm 100 percent wrong on this. OH, VA, FL, IA, and possibly NC too are all very key swing states with a very large percentage of white evangelical voters too. It might not swing them much but it doesn't take a large amount at all to affect 50/50 states, and that is another major reason I sadly have to give Republicans at least a slight edge in November right now unfortunately. It will however be very interesting to see how this plays out before the election, and how Obama and the Republicans play this politically. It could literally go either way. It could really help them but it could really backfire on them too. I just don't know right now. But as of now I'm leaning pessimistic, since Obama isn't that popular right now and white evangelicals the Republican base will be much more fired up about this than Democrats will. In fact the Supreme Court is one of the biggest reasons many of not most white evangelicals vote Republican in the 1st place. I fully expect the Senate Republicans to try to stall this thing out until after Election Day, and they've sadly already made that perfectly clear today. It might be too long though there is still a ton of time before Election Day. 9 months is a long period of time to stall out any Supreme Court nomination no matter who is president and no matter which party controls Congress. I think this one issue may very well decide the whole presidential election as well. It might affect the primaries too but I don't think it will nearly affect them as much as it will the general election, but then again I might be 100 percent wrong on that too. I just don't know right now. A very interesting election in the 1st place just got even more so today. Unfrickin' unbelievable. This once again proves that Election Day 2016 is still an eternity away and anything and everything can happen in politics. Definitely a case of "wait and see as always" no doubt about it! Version: 137 #DumpTrump2016 Unfortunately my home state of WV will be one of Trump's very best states if not his very best no matter what :-( Version: 136 Trump vs. Sanders as of February 9, 2016 No VP candidate listed. I flipped CO and IA in favor of Sanders since he'd almost certainly do much better there than Hillary would and VA for Trump since Sanders would probably do worse there. The big winners tonight were Sanders, Trump, and very unexpectedly Kasich. However I think Kasich's showing was "fool's gold" for him. The big loser tonight was Rubio who did far worse in NH than I thought he would. SC is critical for Hillary she has to get back on the right track. Even a victory in SC would hurt her if it is a close one. What's shocking me is Hillary's very, very poor performance with younger voters. Right now she's only carrying 20 to 25 percent of the 18-29 year old vote. Ouch! If that continues to be the case she's in deep, deep trouble. This could be another 50/50 split in the Democratic primary just like it was in 2008, which to me is not good news at all for us Democrats. Things will really get bad for Hillary if she loses a significant amount of minority support. SC is critical for Rubio too I think he has to win there or he's in big, big trouble. However SC is a much better fit for Cruz and possibly Trump too than even Rubio, which is even worse. A "Trump vs. Sanders" race would definitely be interesting indeed. There's still however a long way to go until Election Day 2016 and anything and everything can still happen in politics, and already has so far. Wait and see as always! Version: 135 As of right now VIRGINIA VIRGINIA VIRGINIA will decide it all. I'm now thinking that possibly Trump and Cruz might very well split the non-establishment vote possibly letting Rubio sneak by with a very narrow victory in the Republican primary, if he can consolidate the establishment vote. Who knows what will happen in the Democratic one?! I'm still thinking Hillary because of her huge advantage over Bernie in the South and Appalachia, but then again I could be wrong about that too since they're both very Republican right now and Republicans are increasing their voting registration in the area too, and that could probably hurt Hillary some too, but exactly how much remains to be seen. Also watch the black vote too, possibly even the Hispanic one. Still looks like Hillary has the advantage with both demographics as of now but if Bernie can receive more than expected of them that could be huge too. Still looks like a squeaker my friends it all depends upon the actual nominees from both parties. Wait and see as always. Version: 134 My latest map based on the Iowa caucuses. I'm actually not too happy tonight. It was good that apparently Trump lost, and he was indeed the biggest loser of them all tonight, but otherwise I'm not encouraged at all. Cruz and Rubio did very well Rubio is now definitely the establishment pick it now looks like. Cruz over Trump is not good either. And it looks like the Hillary/Bernie race as of now is 50/50. Sadly I think the only thing good for us Democrats tonight is that Trump lost. I'm not encouraged at all by any other thing. Of course I could be 100 percent wrong as always and I hope and pray I definitely am this time. I flipped OH, PA, and VA all to the Republicans due to tonight's results. I made a map now before midnight comes but will definitely update it tomorrow if I'm able to, but as of now I don't like what I'm seeing at all. Trump's bad night could also be bad news for us Democrats and good news for the Republicans in the general election, especially with Cruz and Rubio most likely being much better candidates and with weaker Democratic ones. I thought Trump would still win rather handily but it just didn't happen. Again I hope and pray I'm 100 percent wrong as always. But there is still an eternity to go until Election Day 2016 and anything and everything is possible in politics, and I hope and pray that is the case yet again. Right now I'm not very encouraged though. A definite case of "wait and see as always." I definitely hope and pray I'm wrong about tonight. Please Lord let me be wrong about this please. Also non-politically related I had a tough day in my personal life as well which is making me even sadder right now. :-( Version: 133 Clinton vs. Trump as of January 29, 2016 Looks like a nailbiter but then again who knows, as politics changes daily. Wait and see as always. Version: 132 Trump worst case scenario. "The Donald" is taking a huge gamble by not appearing at the Republicans' first debate. But if anybody can actually get away with this it's Trump he's gotten away with a lot of stuff that any other candidate almost certainly could not get away with. This still might not happen because Hillary might be "damaged goods" right now herself, and I don't know if Sanders can duplicate these numbers, especially south of the Mason-Dixon where he comes nowhere near Hillary's numbers even perhaps losing VA which Hillary probably carries as of right now. Like I said before I'm really fed up with not only Republicans right now but Democrats as well. Wait and see as always. Version: 131 My updated Democratic worst case scenario map. I am now starting to fear that the anti-Obama backlash could be much worse than currently expected and predicted. I hope and pray I'm 100 percent wrong. I know this is definitely an outlier but for the very 1st time I think this might very well be possible. Wait and see as always. Version: 130 Trump vs. Clinton as of January 20, 2016 no VP candidate listed. It still looks like a very, very close election that could go either way. I have absolute no idea either who be either candidate's running mate. While Donald and Hillary will probably win their primaries, even though you still never know in politics which things can easily change just like that, they both still both have serious issues which could hamper them both in the general election. Usually VP choice doesn't affect who wins the presidential election unless it's very, very close like in 2000. However I think it could very well do so this time, especially in a 50/50 country like we have right now. Even though we are are a 50/50 country only a handful of states are in play most are definitely solid one way or another. It's sad it really is. I really don't like any of our choices for president except perhaps for Bernie. I just wish there was a 20 years younger version of him and also a "non-describing Socialist" version of him as well. Sigh. I'm really getting fed up with politicians from both sides of the aisle all they seem to care about is the wealthiest 1 percent, even the Democratic candidates. Congress can easily get stuff done though when it really wants to, and so can the President too, especially if it helps the wealthiest 1 percent. Just look at the Trans Pacific Partnership, which is an expanded version of NAFTA but even worse because it involves China this time. Also they won't lift the cap on Social Security which would almost certainly solve the "Social Security crisis" immediately but they won't do that either, once again because of the wealthiest 1 percent. It's sad my friends it really is. Wait and see as always. Version: 129 Trump vs. Clinton worst case Hillary scenario. Hillary might not even be the nominee though. I think Bernie's recent upswing in the polls is not necessarily an endorsement of him but mostly an anti-Hillary thing in the Democratic Party right now. Could Bernie perhaps win the Democratic nomination? It's more possible than ever before I think, again not necessarily because of his popularity but the unwillingness of many rank and file Democrats to accept Hillary right now. I'm even more shocked that Bernie seems to be doing much better head-to-head in general election scenarios than Hillary right now. This is most likely true in the non-South, but in the South both in the Deep South and in the part of Appalachia south of the Mason-Dixon line Bernie will struggle big time against Hillary in the primaries, and also against Republicans in the general election as well. Bernie may not even do as well as Obama either south of the Mason-Dixon line believe it or not, because people here don't like "black Muslims," and also they don't like "Socialists" of any race. I'm very interested to see how well or poorly Sanders does in WV and KY especially in the primaries, to see if he outperforms Obama or not. I'm thinking right now he'll do almost the same as Obama did, that is if the Democratic primary is still in doubt. It's now looking more and more that Trump is going to be the Republican nominee. I don't really know if I want the Democratic nominee whether it be Hillary or Bernie to face "the Donald" believe it or not. On one hand he seems to do worse than other Republicans in general election polls, but on the other hand I definitely don't want "the Donald" to be president either, and if he wins this country is pretty much doomed I think. I'm really surprised but most of all saddened that most white "Christians" Pentecostals especially are actually supporting Trump big time, at least they are in southern WV and eastern KY. Sad but true once again. But I'm of course most worried about VA, OH, PA, and NC; Four key "swing states" we Dems desperately need to keep the White House in our hands, and all with that "West Virginia effect" could shift the states to the Republicans. However once I thought about that the "West Virginia effect" wasn't very much in play in 2012 and we Dems still carried VA, OH, and PA, and only lost NC by a razor thin margin. I might be overhyping it a tad but I still see an anti-Democratic trend in all 4 of those states and in a 50/50 country like we are right now every single vote counts. And those 4 states are very, very crucial except perhaps for NC which it looks like is getting more and more out of reach for us Dems every passing day it seems. We Dems probably don't need NC but we do need VA, OH, and PA. I was very confident of Hillary's chances against Trump just a week ago but no longer. I thought Cruz might be Trump's VP mate but they seem to be arch rivals at the present moment with Cruz being attacked by "the Donald," which could be a mistake by Trump because he might very well need Cruz as his VP mate and supporter too since Cruz perfectly fits the "outsider" theme that "the Donald" is campaigning on, and Cruz has significant political experience unlike Trump and could help "the Donald" big time in that department as well. But once again Election Day 2016 is still a long, long way from today and as we all know by now anything and everything can and does happen in politics. I thought Trump would lose ground by now but so far he might even be gaining ground instead. And who would have thought Bernie would be in striking distance of Hillary either? I was just thinking could Hillary possibly be Bernie's VP mate if he just happens to win the Democratic nomination? The thought just crossed my mind just now. It could actually happen believe it or not. Wait and see as always especially this election! Man I hope and pray I'm wrong about this and this doesn't happen but I give the Republicans a slight edge as of now. Our local Walmart here in McDowell County WV will most likely be closed in two weeks as well. And McDowell County WV is one of the poorest counties already with the recent situation with coal mining here as well. And other Walmarts both in the U.S.A. and abroad as well are being closed too. That sadly will probably help Trump and hurt us Dems as much as I hate it. :-( Wait and see as always! Version: 128 Still looks like a razor-thin close election that could go either way. We're basically a 50/50 nation right now. Wait and see as always. Version: 126 Looks like a very close election as of right now January 9, 2016. We'll know more after the primary elections begin. Wait and see as always. Version: 123 My 1st ever Bernie Sanders map. Sanders vs. Cruz as of December 27, 2015. Bernie and Cruz both are still behind in the polls but both of them seem to have all the momentum right now in the primaries. Bernie is now just 12 points behind Hillary in the recent CNN/ORC poll. I'm literally shocked at that. I'm even more shocked that he's outperforming Hillary in most of the polls right now in most general election matchups. I think in this particular scenario it's the classic "South vs. everybody else" type of matchup. Sadly I don't think Bernie will do very well at all in the South unfortunately, even perhaps losing VA believe it or not. Sad but true. But I think Bernie will do better outside the South, especially in the important swing states of CO and IA, which we Dems will definitely need if we lose VA like I think we will sad to say if Hillary is not the nominee. Some polls had AR in play but forget it if Hillary is not the nominee it's at 60 percent Republican if that's the case if not even larger. Sad but true. Here in Appalachia Bernie will almost certainly get creamed both in the primary and general elections again sad to say. He may not even outperform Obama here. At least that's what I think. He might not even keep rock solid Democratic county Elliott County KY on his side. Obama still carried Elliott KY both times even in 2012. However Sanders' economic populism could surprisingly play well here in the primary, but he still will most likely lose big time in the general election. If Bernie wants to win the primary he'll almost certainly have to do it outside the South Appalachia included which is already a lost cause sad to say. I think OH is definitely the key state is this particular scenario because there are northern, southern, and Appalachian influences there, along with an average minority vote too. However just like 2012 and we talked about this then he actually could still win the general election without Ohio, if he can still hold on to all the Dems' base states believe it or not! Perhaps PA too but I think Sanders has at least a slight advantage over Cruz as of now there because of the Northeastern culture. The key to PA will be the Philly suburbs which lately have been solidly Democratic, and western PA which has trended strongly Republican recently, and where Bernie will struggle big time (remember the "West Virginia" effect?), and he has to cut his losses there too. Sadly I don't think Bernie could carry FL, but I could be wrong as always especially if Bernie shocks the Republicans in Democratic southeastern FL. VA could be lost too. VA has trended Democratic lately and Bernie still should hang in there in the Democratic Washington DC suburbs and Hampton Roads areas, but just like PA he'll have to cut his losses west of Lynchburg the Appalachian areas especially, and among VA's rural white voters statewide. Bernie however could do much, much better than Hillary in the Western U.S. where he could very well be much, much stronger than Hillary believe it or not, even putting some leaning Republican states in play. I made a mistake in underestimating even ID, WY, and especially UT I know they're all solidly Republican and will remain so but perhaps not by the same percentages that Obama lost by in 2012. Bernie will definitely do better even there than Obama in 2012, and will do much better than Hillary would do there in 2016 if he's the nominee instead. Once again this proves as always that politics changes daily, that Election Day 2016 is still far away, and anything and everything can and will happen in politics. Wait and see as always! Version: 121 My first Hillary vs. Cruz map no VP candidate selected as of not. Cruz is only slightly behind Trump right now in the polls and has most of the momentum right now as Trump's words and actions might finally be catching up with him. Make no mistake about it though Cruz is every bit as dangerous as Trump if not more so they're really just alike except Cruz is much more intelligent and a better speaker, debater, and communicator than Trump, but both of them are really cold-hearted snakes on the inside. I still like Hillary's chances but I think it will probably be at least a little more difficult against Cruz than it will be against Trump, and she also has to watch herself more in debates against Cruz than she would have had to do against Trump as well. Cruz has a lot more political savvy as they say then Trump has as well. I thankfully think Cruz mostly improves on Trump in the red (blue on Atlas) states and not as much in the blue (red on Atlas) states, with Cruz outperforming Trump there especially in the Deep South. It could still definitely be more than enough though to flip states like NC and FL back to the Republicans though, and make VA a little more difficult as well. PA will probably be closer and more difficult for Hillary against Cruz than against Trump as well. Again politics this year has thrown us a "curve ball" if you will. Whoever thought that Ted Cruz of all people would be the favorite to win the Republican nomination this late in 2015? I certainly didn't. Also who knows Bernie might even give Hillary some problems as well I'm still surprised he's in the mid 30s I didn't think he'd even be that close. Again proving that Election Day 2016 is still an eternity away and that anything and everything can and will happen in politics, especially this particular election. Again I always say that politics changes daily, and it seems like it has done so once again believe it or not. Wait and see as always! Version: 120 Hillary vs. Trump as of December 20, 2015. No VP candidate listed as of today. I think Cruz will most likely be Trump's running mate though as I don't think any other Republican will agree to be his running mate right now, except for possibly Carson, and as of now I just don't see Trump choosing him. This is if all the polls are correct right now about Trump being the worst GOP candidate against Hillary, which could be true but then again it might not. I hope and pray the polls are right, as Trump would be an absolute disaster in the White House. Sadly Appalachia my home area is probably Trump's best region of the country right now, sadly because of racism as much as I try to deny it and as much as I really, really hate it. People here claim it is coal instead but Trump is probably the absolute worst candidate for coal miners in my honest opinion, making that charge sadly kind of hollow I think. WV could even come eerily close to OK and UT as being Trump's best state in 2016, and probably will beat out ID and WY it now looks like. That's absolutely chilling my friends I never ever dreamed that would ever, ever be the case here in WV with our strong Democratic tradition over the years. It's sad it really is. As much as I love my fellow West Virginians and Appalachians I sadly can't defend them this time. However the rest of the country outside of Appalachia looks very good right now even in parts of the Deep South believe it or not. It will be somewhat closer this time in the Deep South but as always the only southern states Hillary can probably win are the usual ones: VA, FL, and possibly NC. But she still compete in GA too, and perhaps AR, especially against Trump. Despite the Dems' Appalachian woes we are still in very good shape in VA it now seems, and probably PA, OH, and NC too, very surprisingly I think because there is a very strong Appalachian culture and population in all four states. Forget about KY and WV though. The Appalachian connection is very strong in all of WV and in eastern KY too, and in KY's case the rest of the Bluegrass State outside of Appalachia is very heavily Republican as well, unlike OH, VA, PA, and NC. All of WV is in Appalachia it's actually much worse than KY right now believe it or not. Sad but true unfortunately. My fellow white evangelicals my fellow white Pentecostals sad to say really love Trump, and I'm sadly the only one in my church that I know of that doesn't like him. Sad but true. And I think Trump is a poor fit for Appalachia too especially since he's very fiscally conservative and not as socially conservative as most Appalachians are, so sadly it has to be racism and that's it. It can't be anything else as much as I hate it. Sad but true. Good thing Appalachia doesn't pick presidents all by itself for the entire country as a whole, as Sarah Palin would have been our president in 2008 and Donald Trump would win a landslide in 2016. Yes my friends I'm not joking as much as I hate it. Right now it looks good for Hillary but you just never know in politics. We all both Democrats and Republicans keep expecting Trump to decline sharply one day but it just hasn't happened yet. Whether it eventually will or not remains to be seen, but it doesn't look like it as of now. It's still an eternity until Election Day 2016 but as always you never know in politics any more. Wait and see as always. Version: 118 The Hillary vs. Trump blowout map. I wish this definitely was the case but sadly I fear it won't be unfortunately. I just hope and pray my fellow Americans outside of Appalachia (because my home area is gone for us Dems unfortunately) will be intelligent enough not to vote for this destructive man. WV might actually be the most favorable state for Trump in the country, which makes me even sadder. People here in WV and the rest of Appalachia most alarmingly my fellow white Pentecostals actually love Trump and support him 100 percent, even though he is a definite fiscal conservative and actually not too socially conservative either, which should make it a very poor fit for our area but for some strange reason it just isn't right now, and definitely makes me wonder if it is indeed racism which is the reason Trump's doing so well here. Appalachia might arguably even be worse than the Deep South right now believe it or not. I never ever dreamed I'd ever say that in my entire life. I've strongly defended my home state and Appalachia from charges of racism before but unless something changes drastically I can do so no longer that to me is the only reason why a Donald Trump would play so well here in WV and in rural Appalachia as well. The fact that it's my very own fellow white Pentecostals that probably are the strongest supporting this man hurts me even more. Sad but true. Wait and see as always! Please Hillary (or Bernie) please win we can't afford a Donald Trump in the White House. Stop Donald Trump! Version: 117 A razor-thin victory for Hillary over Trump, one in which she probably loses the popular vote but still wins in the Electoral College, becoming the 1st Democratic presidential candidate to ever do so since all the ones before were Republicans. Wait and see as always. Version: 116 Projected best case Trump victory over Hillary as of Dec. 10, 2015. Needless to say I hope and pray this doesn't happen. Is it possible? We really don't know yet. All I know is for some strange reason here in McDowell County WV where I live most white Pentecostals are strongly supporting Trump right now even though to my knowledge he's never ever proclaimed even once to be a born-again Christian, but maybe he has before. I don't think he ever has though before. Look at what my neighbors in KY did my fellow white evangelicals most of them sadly who are Republicans voted in droves because of the Kim Davis situation there in the Bluegrass State, thus electing a radical right-wing Tea Bagger. While it might not be the case in the rest of the country it certainly is the case here in Appalachia. If the white evangelicals Pentecostals especially do the same in 2016 and if it trends in other parts of country too "watch out" us Dems could really, really be in trouble then, especially in OH, PA, and VA, all three very crucial "swing states" bordering West Virginia in 2016. I don't like what I'm seeing in them right now OH and PA especially. VA right now might actually be more likely to go Dem than even PA in 2016 much to my surprise, that is if things keep going the way they do right now. Watch the "Rust Belt" really closely too. If even one of MN, WI, and MI go Republican we Dems are in trouble once again too, and just like our region I don't like what I'm seeing in MN, WI, and MI right now either sad to say. But I could be grossly overestimating Trump too which I definitely want to be doing. Wait and see as always. Version: 115 Most likely Hillary vs. Trump scenario as of December 8, 2015. OH and IA could go either way. Sadly FL and CO both key swing states are gone, at least for now. Wait and see as always! Version: 114 Hillary vs. Trump. Things can change before Election Day 2016 but as of now both Hillary and Trump are the definite favorites as of today December 6, 2015. I might be overly generous to Hillary here, but I really don't know right now. Most of the polls are saying Trump is the weakest Republican of the field right now and this is what today's map is based on. It still could be much closer than this but it can be more lopsided as well, even though a closer race is more likely since the USA is a sharply divided 50/50 nation as of right now. This is the "middle" solution if you will. I really like Hillary's chances against Trump but then again as always I may sound like a broken record but "you just never know" anymore. I bet if they debate each other they will have the highest TV ratings ever, and that could make or break both candidates Trump especially. Things can and will still happen until Election Day 2016 you just never know in politics. Wait and see as always! Version: 113 Republican best case scenario as of December 4, 2015. This is due to backlash from the California shootings and conservatives pushing back due to efforts to restrict or ban guns, and probably background checks as well. I know that in my home state of WV it doesn't matter if you're Democratic or Republican you just cannot win elections if you support any type of gun control at all. You just can't. Wait and see as always. Version: 112 Back to my "close election Hillary/Trump map" some states could go either way. I now have IA as Dem now by the slightest of margins, as I've had it Republican recently because Hillary is somewhat weak there but I think it's still a 50/50 dead heat as of now. CO a key western "swing state" on the other hand looks lost for us Dems, unless the Hispanic voters turn out in droves because of anti-Trump sentiment that still could happen but it's looking less and less likely as of right now. It is possible for other candidates to be the nominee, especially on the Republican side, but as of right now Hillary and Trump are still definitely the clear favorites Hillary especially. Trump is still doing well in the polls but he definitely has lost some momentum recently. I think this could hurt him more in the general election though in the primary election, at least that's what it looks like as of now. He still has a very solid lead though, and as of now it looks like he is still the clear favorite in the Republican primary. I still think a "brokered" Republican convention is very possible too, because I don't know if the establishment will accept Trump as the nominee or not. And yes I think it's very possible that in the general election Hillary could win the electoral college but not the popular vote as well. . If that were to happen she'd be the first ever Democratic candidate ever to do so, as all the ones before have been Republicans. Yes you heard me right, because I think the Republican states are much more solid than the Dem ones right now, but again I could be wrong as always. The "Rust Belt" still looks key as it has definitely trended somewhat Republican recently. Rather surprisingly WI might actually be more solidly Dem than either MI or MN right now. Watch also Obama's approval rates if they continue to go down by Election Day 2016 that could hurt the Dems too Hillary especially. As always watch my home state "West Virginia effect" too in key "swing states" bordering us. VA, OH, and PA all could be huge and the "WV effect" could really hurt us Dems too in all three states. They all look very close as of now. VA is the most solidly Democratic of the three it now looks like. Politics changes daily you never know what will happen one day from another, especially in this particular election. Anything can and will happen in politics, and already has. Wait and see as always! Version: 111 "The Donald" may be looking a tad weaker against Hillary now thank God. Let's hope and pray that's the case. Wait and see as always! Version: 110 The most likely "Hillary vs. Trump" electoral map as of now November 29, 2015, as they both still have solid leads in their respective parties but it was definitely a bad week for Trump. I had him with a slight advantage over Hillary before but now I give Hillary the slightest of advantages as of now. Still looks like a close election barring some major events. Some states could still go either way. I'm most depressed at all that at least 90 percent of my fellow white Pentecostals according to my observations, are supporting Trump right now, even though he is definitely not a Christian and has never proclaimed himself to be a Christian either. Sad but true. That tells you exactly how my fellow white Pentecostals are politically sad to say. Wait and see as always. Version: 109 Worst case scenario for Trump against Hillary. Could this actually happen? A lot of people are saying that Trump is hurting the Republican Party big time right now. I don't know if I agree with that or not. This is my predicted "worst case scenario" for Trump against Hillary just in case that's true. Whether this will actually happen or not remains to be determined. Wait and see as always! Version: 108 Happy Thanksgiving Day all my friends. The most likely 2016 Democratic victory scenario as of today Thanksgiving Day November 26, 2015. It looks like the "Rust Belt" might very well decide it all this election. Watch the "West Virginia effect" in 2016 I know I sound like a "broken record" but OH, PA, and VA are all very huge states in 2016. Wait and see as always! Version: 107 It looks like this election could very well be decided in the "Rust Belt," as us Democrats are the weakest there in quite some time. If even one of the Upper Midwest states MN/WI/MI goes Republican we're in deep trouble, and OH and PA are not looking good at all for us Dems either right now. VA is a 50/50 dead heat either side could win it right now. Again watch out for that pesky my home state "West Virginia effect" too it could hurt us Dems in all three of our bordering states OH/PA/VA. I fear CO is sadly lost for us Dems right now unless there is a abnormally large Hispanic turnout there. Wait and see as always. Version: 106 Will MN vote Republican for the 1st time since 1972? If they do we Dems will be in huge, huge trouble. Right now according to the polls MN could go either way. Even a razor-thin victory there for us Dems would be bad right now. A huge anti-Obama sentiment is apparent across the country right now, especially with the refugees debate. Whether that will remain the case on Election Day 2016 remains to be seen. Wait and see as always. Version: 105 Not looking good at all for us Democrats right now. It wasn't to begin with and now with the Syrian refugee situation it now looks bleaker for Dems than ever before. What seemed like a sure-fire win for Hillary and the Dems just a short year ago looks like a sure-fire loss now. CO now looks as good as gone, even if Trump is the nominee. I only have NH as lean instead of tossup because of recent polling there but I'm not sure now. The same is true for WA. Even normally rock solid Democratic OR looks rough right now. Even NV and NM could be in trouble if we Dems lose a lot of the Hispanic vote. However it now looks like Trump is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination but NM might very well go Republican too if he isn't, simply because of the Hispanic vote. I hope and pray I'm wrong but it doesn't look at all for the Dems now. The anti-Obama movement is very, very strong now and with the Syrian refugee crisis it looks even stronger. However a razor thin close election can still happen as well I predicted that all along but I might be wrong on that as well. Thank God for CA and NY I guess. Even rock solid Dem IL could be in question. It's still a long way away until Election Day 2016 and anything and everything can and will happen in politics. This current election is definitely proof of that. Wait and see as always. Version: 104 http://www.270towin.com/polling-maps/clinton-carson-electoral-map <br /><br />rn<br /><br />rnI don't know how right/wrong this current Carson vs. Clinton poll matchup is, but if it's true we Dems are in some major, major trouble, and the country as well, especially with usually rock solid blue (red on this site) states like MN, MI, and PA firmly in the Republican camp and crucial swing states like OH, VA, and NC as well. Seeing those numbers I might have actually underestimated my home state "West Virginia effect" while all along I actually thought I might have been grossly overhyping it instead believe it or not. Those are head scratchers to me don't know if they're true or not but if they are it's very bad news for us Dems. The West Coast and Northeast still look good as WA is still solid Dem and so is the Northeast outside of PA. The two states that could go either way in this particular scenario are western states NV and NM, and that all depends upon the Hispanic vote in both states. However it looks like we Democrats could be in major, major trouble in the "Heartland of America," whereas of right now we only carry IL and that's it. It does looks like Trump will be the nominee as of now instead of Carson, but I still think the results will be similar in this particular scenario. It looks like the anti-Obama thing may even be worse than I originally thought and that along the Hillary email situation a lot more right now are hurting Dems a lot more than I originally expected. While it still probably won't be a Ronald Reagan like landslide (largely in fact due to CA, IL, and NY we Dems would be blown out if it weren't for those three states) these poll numbers do indicate a major wave. I've been saying all along this will be a very close election like 2000 but it might not be if these poll numbers are right, but then again they may not be you just never know. I think Trump and Hillary are the primary favorites as of now. As for VP mates Carson would be perfect for Trump, but "the Donald" has said some bad things about Carson recently, and I don't know if they can patch things up. But I do think Carson will be a perfect VP fit for Trump if they do mend fences. Kinda of like the "Obama/Clinton" ticket in 2008, as it now looks like a major mistake that Obama didn't choose Hillary as his running mate instead of Biden then it now looks like. I like Biden but Hillary was much more qualified for the job. The favorite for Hillary's running mate right now is Kaine, simply because VA Kaine's home state is so crucial to both Dems and the GOP in 2016, but it wouldn't matter in this particular scenario, even though it will help Hillary in VA in a close election but how much is not known as of right now. Anyway Election Day 2016 is still a long, long way from now and anything and everything can happen as always in politics. Wait and see as always!<br /> Version: 102 Republican best case scenario. Sadly I had to add MI and MN to the list, and put PA as "lean." WA and OR may not even be safe. Perhaps not even NJ as well. NM could even be in play if 1/3 to 2/5 of Hispanics vote Republican. Now as of right now I still the election will be a very close one possibly even like 2000, but sadly I also feel the Republican best case scenario is a lot more likely than the Democratic best case scenario is right now, judging from my current observations of America right now. I hope and pray I'm wrong. Sad but true. Living in WV my very own white Pentecostal family is strongly against me and my politics right now. I hope and pray I'm wrong. Wait and see as always. Version: 101 Still looks a "squeaker" folks. The 2016 Election might very well go either way I'm expecting a very close election right now. Could even be like 2000 believe it or not! Yes it could be that close. It's very possible that the winner of the popular vote might not win the Electoral College either. Yes that is very possible right now too believe it or not. Wait and see as always! Version: 100 Most likely Democratic victory map as of November 7, 2015. Still looks like a very close election that could go either way. OH, VA, and PA still seem to be the key states. Still have to watch the "West Virginia effect" closely in all three states, especially with our crushing defeat and poor performance in KY the eastern part of the state especially on Election Day 2015. This election could go either way right now. Wait and see as always. Version: 99 Still looks to be a very close election regardless of the particular Democratic and Republican nominees. It still looks like the three key swing states bordering my home state of West Virginia: Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania - may very well decide the whole darn thing, and I don't like what I'm seeing right now, especially with the recent Kentucky gubernatorial election results showing us Dems doing much worse in the eastern part of the state than even I thought we would, and eastern KY is exactly like WV culture wise. This doesn't bode well for us Dems in any of the three key swing states of VA, OH, and worst of all and most troubling of all PA which is usually a solid Democratic state. However the recent PA polls don't look good for us Dems either, and we most likely cannot win without PA. It will be interesting to see how the "WV effect" plays in all three swing states. Right now I'm not very optimistic at all sad to say. Wait and see as always. Version: 98 Hillary Clinton worst case scenario. While I still this election will be close I sadly now believe this is more possible than her best case scenario now sad to say, something I would not have said just a year ago. I've downgraded her worst case scenario too adding MI to the list whereas I didn't think MI would go Republican at all before, and placed PA at lean Republican now instead of just a tossup, which is a major, major downgrade. MN and even WA too might not even be safe. NM won't be safe either if 1/3 of Hispanics vote Republican. Wait and see as always. Version: 97 I'm basing this new map on the Kentucky gubernatorial election results last night. I am very, very disappointed that my good neighbors to the west of West Virginia voted for a Tea Partier last night. I thought KY might be remotely in play (still a long shot but possible) in 2016 but forget that now after last night. The same is even more so for my home state of WV. I know a lot are bullish on AR but you can now probably forget that too most likely. I might have to do the same for NC as well moving it to solid. I moved AZ to solid too because of more Hispanics voting Republican now especially with a minority possibly on top of the GOP ticket. The "West Virginia effect" could be even stronger than I first thought it was and it was very, very strong in eastern KY last night with all those DINOs voting for Bevin. Forget about the South and Appalachia it's all gone sad to say except for VA, FL, and NC, and probably not even them. I moved bordering WV swing states OH, PA, and VA all back to the Republicans sad to say, and AR back solid Republican as well. I moved both WV and KY 60 percent instead of just 50 percent. The Kim Davis situation apparently resonated very strongly in KY, saddest of all among my fellow white evangelicals my fellow Pentecostals especially, and I really feared it would despite many of fellow Democrats' opinions to the contrary. If we Dems want to win now it will have to be outside the South, again except for VA and FL. Forget about GA and AR I know many Dems think we have a realistic shot at them GA especially but I think GA is just "fool's gold" for us Dems instead. Sad but true. However Carson is still leading in the GOP presidential primary polls, and that might be the only thing that saves us Dems in 2016, but then again he's not only doing very well in the primary polls but in the general election polls as well. That's scary my friends. Sad but true. He could even win 10-15 of the African-American vote, which doesn't sound like much but still definitely more than enough to effect the election, especially in bordering OH, VA, and PA all three swing states with significant African-American populations, and perhaps several other swing states as well. He will probably do a least somewhat better than Romney did among Hispanics as well. It's still a year away until Election Day 2016, and anything and everything can and will happen in politics. Wait and see as always. Version: 96 Still looks like a very close election that could go either way. Will my home state "West Virginia effect" in VA, OH, and worst of all PA cost us Dems the entire election? It could very well happen believe it or not. There are really four main reasons WV is so pro-Republican right now: Coal. Guns. Religion. Race. We Dems whether the nominee is Hillary or Sanders could really have a rough time in the Appalachian areas in all three of those crucial "swing states" VA, OH, and PA as well, all of them very crucial to both Dems and the GOP in 2016. Could AR shock some folks as well? Some think it will but definitely not me just yet, even though the margin there could still be closer if Hillary is the nominee. Of course it's still over a year away until Election Day 2016 and as always anything can and will happen in politics before then. Wait and see as always! Version: 95 I've noticed many posters having AR and even WV in play. I just don't see that happening, especially in WV. I live in WV, "Democratic" country nonetheless (even though most Dems here are really DINOs instead) and unless there is a Ronald Reagan-like Democratic landslide no way WV goes Democratic. I wish I didn't have to say that but sadly it's true. I don't know of even one white evangelical especially the Pentecostals who are particularly very socially conservative here planning on voting Democratic in 2016 regardless of whom the Democratic nominee is Hillary included. Not one. It doesn't matter whom the GOP candidate is either. The same is most likely true for AR as well, even though Hillary's prior connections there may help her there some, unlike WV. If the margin is closer in AR then they will probably be even more so in some other southern states like GA and NC for instance, and maybe the border state of MO too. PA is not looking good at all for Hillary right now. Biden did have some PA connections but with him out of the race PA seems to be definitely in play. If PA goes Republican too then "turn out the lights the party is over" for us Dems. Sad but true. Some have OH going Dem but I just can't it going Dem with PA going Republican as well. The same might be true for VA as well it could even be more Dem than either OH or PA this time but again I highly doubt it, and I know VA quite a bit too I know more about it and KY though more than most people do outside my local area VA especially since I have a lot of family connections in VA. Wait and see as always! Version: 93 Clinton/Kaine vs. Carson/Cruz My first Ben Carson map since he's now the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, which I'm still not buying as of now. Trump has started falling in the polls it now looks like. Whether that will continue remains to be seen. Unless I'm grossly underestimating Carson, which I may very well be, I see an easy win for us Dems. Christmas might have very well come early for us Democrats this year. However I would not get too cocky now. You never know here in U.S. politics what might happen from day to day. Carson could still win this thing yes I still think it's possible. He'll definitely carry my home state of West Virginia if nowhere else. Anything and everything is definitely possible as they say. Who would have ever dreamed of Ben Carson ever leading the polls at this stage of the election? I certainly wouldn't have. 2016's Republican convention should be very interesting indeed. Don't count Rubio or Trump completely out either. Can Hillary hold on for us Dems? It looks really good for her right now. I still think Bernie can give her a run for her money. She's just very fortunate a younger more charismatic version of Sanders is not her opponent. Wait and see as always! Version: 91 Most likely "Hillary Clinton victory" scenario. I've noticed that some posters have placed AR in the Dem column. There must have been a recent poll showing that to be the case. As much as I would love to see that happen I just can't, but I can still see both her doing better in AR than most "experts" think simply because of her and obviously her former President's connections in that state. If that's true I think she'll come closer to the Republican candidate (probably Trump as of now) in other southern and border states as well, even though she'll just be closer in margin and that's it, with the obvious exceptions of VA, FL, and NC. I adjusted the margins for that too, even though it could be true she'll do almost as badly as Obama did there as well, and this could actually happen since this is the "most logical Hillary victory" map. The Great Lakes states I have as all "lean Dem" right now since she'll obviously do much better there in a victory than in a loss. Right now in this scenario it all really comes down to OH, VA, and it now looks like possibly PA as well. As I said on my last map watch out for that very crucial yet very underrated "West Virginia effect," which could very well hurt her in all three of those very crucial "swing" states since they all border WV and all have significant Appalachian connections. However in a Hillary victory map like this we might be overdoing it just a tad, but only in a Hillary victory map like this one. I think this is going to be a very close election I'm 50/50 as to whether the Dems or the Republicans are going to win yes I do think it's going to be that close right now. Watch the Hispanic vote too if that takes shape she might actually take CO and yes perhaps make AZ very interesting as well. I think that actually might be the only way she wins CO right now. However I've also noticed more giving her CO, but I guess that's because Trump's her opponent, and he is his weakest among Hispanic voters right now for obvious reasons. Right now it's Trump and Carson battling it out for the "outsider" choice if not the only choice for the Republicans right now. I'm kind of surprised right now that the establishment candidates aren't closer to either Trump or Carson, Rubio especially, but that all could change if it rallies behind just one candidate. It will be interesting to see if the Trump and/or Carson supporters unite with each other behind the candidate with the lead at the most crucial part of the election, most likely Trump as of now. If that happens we could have a 50/50 "barnburner" in the GOP primary in 2016 just we Dems did in 2008. The 2016 Republican convention could be by far the most interesting convention we've had in a long, long time if that happens as well. It could get interesting in the Democratic primary too if Bernie can somehow make it closer and Hillary makes one of those "historic gaffes" I always talk about, but that looks very doubtful as of now. "Wait and see as always" is definitely is the case this time in the 2016 presidential election. Version: 90 Looks almost certain that Hillary will be the Democratic nominee now that Biden is officially out of the race. Bernie is good but I highly doubt he'll get the nomination. Just too much skepticism of "Socialists" (even though he really isn't I bet he regrets calling himself that now that definitely will cost him some votes sad to say) even among rank and file Democrats. For the Republicans it is actually very unclear what will happen now. Trump and Carson the outsiders are polling almost a combined 50 percent and so are the establishment front runners with Trump and Carson individually with huge leads over all establishment candidates. It will be interesting to see if the establishment candidates will rally behind and throw their support over a single candidate and now even more so whether the "outsiders" Trump and Carson will unite behind each other, most likely Trump as of right now, as well. The white evangelicals might actually decide this thing and rather surprisingly Trump is still hanging in there very well with them as of right now. They do love Carson too though and probably a lot more than Trump. If both sides do rally behind a single candidate it could very well be the 2016 Republican version of the "2008 Hillary vs. Obama" Democratic primary. Now that would be crazy lol. Wait and see as always. Version: 89 Trump (or probably any other Republican for that matter) best case scenario. Version: 88 Worst case Trump scenario according to many if not most of not fellow Democrats. I personally don't think so though I currently think it will be a very close race no matter whom the Republican nominee is. It looks like it might be be only between Trump and Carson right now, unless the establishment rallies around a single candidate which is very possible too, and probably even the Democratic nominee whether it's Hillary or Bernie as well. I highly doubt there will be a Ronald Reagan or Richard Nixon landslide. It is not very possible right now at least in the near future either just too much polarization right now. Wait and see as always! Version: 87 Trump/Carson generic map. A really decent VP choice for "the Donald." An "outsider" who appeals to the evangelical base and one who could perhaps win 10-15 percent of the black vote and help Trump some among a weak demographic of his the all-important Hispanic vote. Right now Carson is a close 2nd to Trump even beating out Jeb and Rubio. It seems like both Trump and Carson can get away with saying things all the other candidates both Democratic and Republican can't right now. It looks like Hillary is pulling away slowly but surely in the Democratic race as well. Still it is 50/50 right now whether Biden will run or not that is a huge "wild card" as well. Biden much to my surprise does much better right now in a general election than Hillary but I don't think he can beat her in the Democratic primary. Same is true with Rubio as far as the Republicans are concerned Trump and Carson are pulling away from him as well. Whether that will still be the case or not during primary season or not remains to be seen. It's still over a year away until Election Day 2016 and as we all know by now anything and everything can happen in politics before that time. Wait and see as always! Watch closely for my home state "West Virginia effect" in the key swing states of OH, VA, and PA. WV itself won't be in play but it could still very well effect those three crucial swing states since WV borders all three states, and we Democrats are struggling big time in the Appalachian area in all of them. Not good my friends. Not good at all. Version: 86 Hillary/Kaine vs. Trump/Rubio I don't know if Rubio will ever agree to be Trump's running mate in the 1st place but if he did I think he would help Trump out immensely. I don't even know if Trump will select Rubio either since he's an "insider" and that might hurt Trump's "outsider" theme. I really didn't think about that until just now but that's true too. It's very alarming right now that Hillary is losing in PA according to the recent polls. It will be almost impossible for us Democrats to win without PA. I wonder if it's the "West Virginia" effect? It could be in western PA. Those Philly suburbs are vitally important too. Wait and see as always! Version: 85 Trump/Carson vs. Hillary/Kaine as of October 18, 2015. An interesting electoral map indeed. I can actually see Trump taking PA and perhaps even NH believe it or not. He could take one of MI, WI, and MN too. He would actually win if he could take one of them three states. However his Hispanic problem along with Hillary's strong popularity with Hispanics would probably cost him CO and even worse AZ as well, and have absolutely no shot of winning NV either. OH, NC, and FL would be 50/50 dead heats too. VA thank God in least in this scenario probably would look good for Hillary, even though the normally Democratic stronghold of the Washington DC suburbs might not be as pro-Hillary in this scenario, and Appalachian VA on the other hand maybe not nearly as anti-Hillary. VA would probably still be a very important state regardless. I might have to even give Hillary a slight advantage in FL too even though I have Trump winning it right now. Trump would definitely lose if FL went Hillary's way even if he did carry PA, NH, or one (even maybe two) of the Upper Midwestern states of MN, MI, and WI. The crucial state of OH would be 50/50 too I can see Trump doing very well there too, especially if PA goes his way. Actually I think there is a better than 50/50 chance that Carson and Kaine would be the VP candidates in this particular scenario: Carson to help Trump with the evangelical vote and Kaine of course to help Hillary in the all-important swing state of VA. I actually think an establishment VP candidate would help Trump more than Carson but I don't know as of now if they'd agree to be Trump's running mate or not. Rubio would really help Trump in AZ, CO, and FL with the Hispanic vote. But yet again I don't know if he would agree to be Trump's running mate or not. Yes it might not be that much of an impact but even a small increase would be huge in dead heat 50/50 states as it wouldn't take that much at all to swing them one way or the other. Hillary will do better in the South than any other Dem candidate against Trump but even then probably just put VA, NC, and FL in play as always. The rest of the South would be closer in margin but again that's it. NC could be a "wild card" too in this scenario but I think Trump still keeps it as of now, as Hillary is still doing rather poorly in NC in the polls right now. Watch the Omaha NE district too could that little electoral vote possibly mean anything I can easily see Hillary giving Trump a run for his money there believe it or not! Wait and see as always! Version: 84 A very close generic race as of now October 17. 2015 OH, VA, and PA look to be the most important states now. Possibly MN, WI, MI, and IA in the Midwest where the Dems are struggling somewhat now. Funny thing and surprising to me MN looks to be just as close if not closer than WI and MI right now. Hmmm. Perhaps FL and CO too but not as likely sad to say they both look pretty good for Republicans right now. NH the other way for us Dems. The South could be closer if Hillary is the nominee. And that's a huge and questionable "if." Forget about the South Appalachia included if either Sanders or Biden is the nominee though. AZ and CO especially could be interesting if Trump is the nominee perhaps because of his Hispanic problem but that too is questionable right now. The Republican primary as of now seems to be a three-way race between Trump, Rubio, and Carson. The Dems Hillary, Sanders, and perhaps Biden too if he decides to enter the race. Wait and see as always! Version: 83 Worst case Democratic scenario as of October 16, 2015. NM and OR were the toughest states for me in this particular scenario NM could go Republican too if the GOP wins 40 percent of the Hispanic vote. Version: 82 Hillary Clinton best case scenario. I think she might surprise some folks in the southern states, which I would absolutely love if that happened. As for my home state of WV forget about it I don't know of even one my fellow white evangelicals who plans to vote for Hillary, but she still hangs in there very tough against non-evangelicals but they are grossly outnumbered here in WV right now. As of now it's most likely to happen against Trump rather than Rubio or Carson according to the current polls but then again you just never know. Neither Biden nor Sanders can do nearly as well in the South as Hillary can not even close. I also think she'll do very well among Hispanic voters especially if Trump is her opponent, so much so I really like her chances in AZ believe it or not! However she is slumping in the polls big time in the Democratic primary right now. Even though I like both Biden and Sanders they probably won't do as well in the general election as Hillary will especially in the South and other red (blue on Atlas) states. I think she'll survive simply because there isn't a 10 to 20 years younger more charismatic, and non-Socialist (Sanders technically really isn't a "Socialist" it was a mistake for him to say he was that) version of Sanders. If there were I think Hillary would have been toast she got a major break as far as that is concerned. Wait and see as always! Version: 80 Worst case Democratic scenario as of today October 11, 2015 yes I do believe this is very much possible despite what most of my fellow Democrats say. I think President Obama will hurt us Dems much more than help us in 2016, and hurts us a lot more than we might think as well it could even be worse than this. The state of this country on Election Day itself will have everything to do with this as well. This of course is definitely subject to change by Election Day 2016 but I'm not very optimistic at all right now. It all could depend upon the particular candidates of both parties as well, as Hillary's slide in the polls has resumed once again and both the Republicans and Democrats are very divided right now against one another and amongst themselves too right now. Minnesota could even go Republican, and perhaps even Oregon, Washington, and New Mexico too believe it or not! Who knows what will happen this particular election cycle? "Wait and see as always" indeed this time! Version: 79 Hillary/Kaine vs. Rubio/Kasich A very close election VA and PA look to be the key states as of now, but the Midwest is scaring me too. Rubio's "NO" vote on aid to Hurricane Sandy victims in NJ following the recent flood disaster in SC could hurt him big time, and I hope and pray it does. But it probably won't unfortunately sad to say. Wait and see as always! Version: 78 Clinton/Kaine vs. Trump/Carson I can actually see Trump taking PA and NH, but still losing CO and possibly AZ too only because of Trump's Hispanic problem and that alone. VA would also be a very close win for the Dems I think in this scenario as well only because of Kaine and him alone swaying just enough voters to keep VA in the Dem column. I think Trump is the only GOP candidate where this map is possible. PA, NH, IA, CO, and VA even with Kaine all are razor thin close in this scenario, perhaps OH too. FL and OH sadly look out of reach for us Dems because of those being Rubio's and Kasich's home states respectively. Also NV is out of reach now for Republicans because of Trump's Hispanic problem too. Sadly for us Dems NC is becoming out of reach with every new poll showing us getting weaker and weaker down there. Right now I think it's Trump vs. Rubio as far as the GOP primary is concerned, but don't rule Carson or Fiorina completely out either. Carson and Fiorina are still doing extremely well in the polls Carson especially. Carson, Cruz, and Fiorina are Trump's best choices for VP now. I favor Carson as of now because of his good poll numbers and strength among evangelicals but that could easily change as well. Trump might need a more moderate Republican outsider to help him in those key Rust Belt "swing states" Carson might be very weak in those. However Trump's problem is getting an establishment Republican to agree to be his VP pick in the first place, and that could very well hurt him there, especially in OH and IA both which are razor thin close right now. Also right now unless something changes Rubio might very well be the only establishment candidate capable of winning the Republican primary. As far as the Dems are concerned it really looks like a Hillary vs. Biden race if Biden decides to enter it. While I like Bernie Sanders his support has somewhat leveled off in the past week to 10 days, and I just don't think the American people even rank and file Dems are ready for a "socialist" candidate. Notice I placed "socialist" in quotation marks Sanders isn't nearly as liberal it now looks like than even I originally thought he was. My next map will be Clinton/Kaine vs. Rubio/Kasich if I can remember to do so. I still think Hillary is the odds on choice to win the Democratic primary as of now especially since Sanders' support has leveled off recently. It's still yet to be determined if Biden will even run and also what chances he has of winning the Dem primary his chances are actually a lot more than I thought they would be as well he could even end up winning this thing believe or not. I think Hillary needs Kaine to carry VA. But whether Kaine can help her in OH, PA, and IA remains to be seen. Perhaps she needs a Midwesterner too she is actually doing poorly in the Rust Belt right now and if she even loses one of MN, WI, and MI, along with Northeastern Rust Belt state PA she could be in serious trouble too. And Kasich as a VP could actually help the Republicans big time too in those key Midwestern battleground states as well. Biden rather surprisingly to me is a stronger general election candidate than Hillary it now looks like. Again that remains to be determined as well. Whether Rubio can get enough Hispanic support to beat Hillary is yet to be seen she is still every popular among rank and file Hispanic voters. Still the primaries are still several months away and anything and everything can happen in politics as we all know so well right and anything and everything can happen.Wait and see as always! Version: 77 Still looks like a very close election no matter whom the nominees are. I think Obama's unpopularity will hurt us Dems in several key states. Virginia still looks to be the state that decides it all as of now. Keep a close eye on Pennsylvania too. If PA just happens to go Republican we Dems are sunk. It sadly looks like we might be going back to those dreaded Bush maps except for NV and possibly NM. Even Minnesota isn't safe for us Dems this time. I thought Obama's elections would have re-aligned the electoral map a lot more than this but it doesn't look like they did sad to say. Election Day 2016 is still an eternity away though and anything can and will happen in politics and already has. It's still over a year away too. Wait and see as always! Version: 76 Could even Michigan, Minnesota, and Maine-2 go Republican? It's not completely out of the realm of possibility in a pro-Republican scenario like this. Wait and see as always! Version: 75 It still looks like VIRGINIA VIRGINIA VIRGINIA will be the state that will decide it all, unless some "game changer" happens. Wait and see as always! Version: 73 The "270 firewall" map. This might actually be the only way we Dems can win this thing in 2016. VA, OH, and possibly PA too look to be the most important states this time with a few others possible as well. Wait and see as always! Version: 72 Looks like a very close election as of now. VIRGINIA VIRGINIA VIRGINIA looks like the state that could decide it all as of now as well and it's a 50/50 dead heat it now looks like. This is a generic D vs. R map as of September 22, 2015. It still depends upon whom the exact Democratic and Republican nominees are. Hillary has rather surprisingly gained back some ground recently. In the Republicans Trump-Fiorina-Carson the "outsiders" = 50 percent and the establishment candidates = 50 percent as well! You can't get anymore divided than that! I think Rubio as of now is the most likely establishment GOP candidate. It will very interesting to see what will happen after the field narrows down in both parties the Republican one especially. Just like the Democrats in 2008 a 50/50 split could very well happen in the Republican primary this year. The Democrats were the more divided party in the 2000s but in the 2010s it looks like the Republicans are more divided this time. It will also be interesting to see if Hillary has stopped her slide in the polls as well. As we all know so well by now Election Day 2016 is still an "eternity" away and anything and everything can still happen in politics, and already has! And Election Day 2016 is still over a year away believe it or not! Wait and see as always! Version: 71 I hope and pray I'm 100 percent wrong about this. Version: 70 Looks like a very, very close election in 2016, with Republicans having at least a slight advantage as of right now sad to say :-( . VA, OH, PA, and IA look like the key states now. FL might be very well be a lost cause for us Democrats again sad to say, according to recent polling there. CO is looking no better and we Dems are struggling in the Great Lakes states too which is very bad news for us. We Dems are really in trouble if we lose PA, NH, or both, and it's a very real possibility as of now as well. Wait and see as always! Version: 69 Hillary/Kaine vs. Trump/Carson as of Septemeber 14, 2015 Trump's Hispanic problem is very, very real and could easily cost him an election he would actually probably win big otherwise. PA going Republican and FL going Democratic? Only possible if Trump's the nominee. The same is true for AZ being a "swing state" and CO going Democratic probably only happens with Trump the GOP nominee as well. Both would go Republican AZ especially and most likely CO too with any other GOP candidate. Could Carson help Trump with minorities Hispanics especially? Maybe, but only just a tiny bit and that's it. He would help Trump immensely with evangelicals though, perhaps even help Trump a tiny bit with black voters especially very socially conservative ones. Rubio would almost certainly help Trump among Hispanics (not much of a shift but still more than enough in 50/50 states like FL (especially since it's Rubio's home state)) if he were the VP choice and probably even win the election for Trump. However I don't think he would ever agree to be Trump's running mate though. VA is a 50/50 dead heat even with Kaine and could easily go either way. Ditto with OH and perhaps even PA too. I might do a Joe Biden map and possibly do a Bernie Sanders map too I still think Hillary is the favorite as of now to win the Democratic nomination but it's definitely far from a sure thing. I think Trump is the odds-on favorite to win the Republican nomination as of now unless he totally self-destructs and even then he might be the Republican nominee he's already gotten away with a lot more than most other Republican and Democratic candidates too would have been allowed to get away with and I just don't see anyone stopping him as of right now. However it's still an "eternity" until Election Day 2016, and anything and everything can happen until then in politics as we all know so well right now. Wait and see as always! Version: 67 The map with the "Hispanics against Trump" effect. The Republicans still win but not by as large a margin. Version: 66 Could this possibly happen? I hope and pray it doesn't but it sure is possible if things keep going the way they're going right now. :-( Version: 65 I hope and pray I'm 100 percent wrong about this. Version: 64 Hillary/Kaine vs. Trump/Carson as of Sept. 8, 2015. I just flipped CO, VA, and FL from the last map. VA almost exclusively because of Kaine and him alone. As of now I believe the Dems will win CO and FL only because of the Hispanic vote, and possibly not even FL since the Hispanic vote there is different than CO (Cuban Americans are much more willing to vote Republican than Mexican Americans as of right now), And also made AZ a tossup, and TX "lean Republican." FL especially is a dead heat 50/50 state and the smallest swing could flip FL one way or the other. The "Hispanic problem" that Trump has could single handily cost him the election. He might very well have to choose Carson or Cruz as his running mate just because of this. I think Carson and Cruz are the top choices for Trump's VP candidate as of right now. If "the Donald" can just increase the vote among Hispanics just a tiny bit (it won't take much either IMHO) he will probably win this thing believe it or not. But his Hispanic problem is very real as of right now. Whether Cruz will help him any at all remains to be seen probably not much though but I don't know about that either. I think Carson would be a good choice for Trump too Carson just like Trump is a "political outsider," is an African American who might help Trump some among black voters (though still 12 percent IMHO at the very most blacks are still notorious "yellow Dog Democratic voters") socially conservative Hispanics (which would be huge even more so than blacks maybe that will help him too especially in AZ, CO, and FL I'm 50/50 on that right now), and helps Trump alleviate all doubts about his white evangelical support. Cruz might be Trump's first pick though simply because of his Hispanic problem. I think as of now Trump's VP choice will either be Carson or Cruz. I don't think Carson will hurt Trump like Cruz will though among independent and other moderate undecided Democratic and Republican voters. It's a 50/50 election right now it could either way. I would definitely favor Trump except for his Hispanic problem too. He definitely has to try to mend fences with the Hispanic community Mexican Americans especially, and Cuban Americans too FL is a dead heat 50/50 state where even the tiniest of swings means absolutely everything, or both could single handily cost him this election. OH and VA could be very interesting too they too are 50/50 dead heats as of now. Also it's not completely out of the question even PA and NH could flip Republican as well. I could be wrong though. Also it's not completely out of the question that OH and VA flip Republican but FL doesn't, something that will probably only if Trump's the GOP nominee and him alone. But I could be wrong on this also. It's still an "eternity" away from Election Day and anything and everything can and will happen in politics and things can change every single day as well. Wait and see as always! Version: 63 This election as of September 6, 2015 could go either way I guess, but I'm not very optimistic at all right now. Our Democrats' only hope is probably a "Clinton vs. Trump" matchup. Even then I think our chances of winning are below 50 percent. I hope and pray I'm wrong as always. We definitely lose if PA goes Republican, and a guaranteed lock we'll lose if WI goes too, and that could definitely happen. NH is a "battleground" state too it looks like all polls there have a 50/50 complete dead heat right now, and that's not good news for us Dems either right now. A "dark horse" state could be AZ if Trump's the nominee, and I think that's the only way CO stays in our column as well as of the current date, and that's only if Hispanics still strongly dislike Trump the way they do as of right now too. AZ only goes Dem if that happens (even then it's probably the longest of long shots), and probably CO as well. CO looks like it will only go Dem if Trump is the GOP nominee and him alone, and even then only because of the Hispanic vote and it's still a 50/50 state at best for us Dems even at that. IA looks sadly and rather surprisingly very bleak for us Dems too as of right now. I'm interested to see if my home state of WV goes even more Republican than OK, ID, WY, and yes even UT too. I never ever dreamed that would ever happen but it definitely looks possible if not likely as of right now sad to say. Also the Republicans as of now seem to be much more energized than Democrats too and for the very first time in this election I think they will turn out a lot more than us Dems will in 2016 sad to say. The gay marriage issue, the Confederate Flag issue, and now the Kim Davis issue in KY have mobilized the white evangelical vote here in the Bible Belt big time, and while most of the South and Appalachia was lost anyway now I have to give the Republicans sad to say at least a slight advantage in OH and VA, and also have made PA a "swing state" too whereas I didn't think it would be before, and put the other "swing state" NC out of reach for us Dems sad to say. I predicted that would happen earlier but many if not most didn't agree with me at the time but even I was unpleasantly surprised at how much it has resonated among voters white evangelicals especially including the Confederate flag issue which is still hurting us a lot more than even I thought it would and is still hurting us Dems even today a good while after the Charleston SC shooting took place. They have hurt us more in "purple states" a lot more than I thought they would and these controversies are still hurting us Dems big time today believe it or not. All of MO has now turned solidly Republican outside of Kansas City and St. Louis which is not all surprising to me since MO is just like AR, WV, and KY in culture outside of those two major cities. MO and now IN too are both solidly Republican too sad to say and MO is sadly no longer in play in my honest opinion if I were the Democrats I sadly would probably have to just concede MO unfortunately. Also Hillary could actually underperform Obama here in WV which is even more shocking to me. I'm very interested to see if Elliott County KY remains in Democratic hands too Obama still carried it in 2012. I thought that Hillary would definitely hold on to it because of that fact alone but the recent WV poll has sadly changed my mind again unfortunately and I think Elliott KY will now probably go Republican for the first time ever since the Civil War. :-( This election proves as all of them too that anything and everything is possible in politics and things can change any and every single day, and it's still a "long, long, way to go" until Election Day 2016 and anything and everything is very, very possible until then. I originally thought Hillary would win a 2012 Obama victory plus NC but not anymore sad to say. Now she and every other Democratic candidate is an underdog even against "the Donald" which is absolutely shocking unto itself. Wait and see as always. Version: 62 Could my home state of West Virginia be even more Republican than Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming in 2016? Version: 61 We Democrats could very well lose this thing, especially if things keep going the way they are right now :-( . Version: 59 Hillary vs. Trump as of Sept. 1, 2015. No VP candidate selected. The "average" Hillary vs. "the Donald" map. Version: 58 Hillary vs. The Donald as of August 31, 2015. No VP candidate listed. The only way that Hillary or any other Dem candidate wins AZ is if Trump's the head of the ticket, and the same is probably true for CO as well, and maybe IA too. AZ and CO of course because of the Hispanic vote. The same is true for the South and other traditionally Republican states being closer. Wait and see as always! Version: 57 Hillary/Kaine vs. Rubio/Kasich as of August 30, 2015 average scenario. Looks like it could be a squeaker! Hillary might be forced to pick Kaine to keep VA in her column because in this particular scenario she might very well have to have him to win. To me this is the strongest Republican ticket right now besides it being flipped the other way around with a Kasich/Rubio ticket instead. However as of now I think Rubio is more likely to win the nomination than Kasich that's why I have Rubio at the top of the ticket. I still think as of now that "the Donald" is the odds on favorite to win the Republican nomination. All depends upon whether the Republican establishment can unite behind one certain candidate strong enough to take him down. As of now I think Rubio is the most likely one. It could get very interesting. Wait and see as always! Version: 56 Democratic worst case scenario as of August 29, 2015. I'm starting to believe this is now a very real possibility believe it or not. :-( Version: 55 Sadly the politics of the WDBJ7 shooting in Roanoke VA could hurt us Dems big time in arguably the most crucial swing state in the nation in the 2016 presidential election, and probably other key swing states as well. I say that because people here in southern WV are very, very angry right now and racial tensions here are worse than I've ever, ever seen before in my entire lifetime, and I'm 100 percent certain it's the same way if not worse in our neighbors in southwestern VA the the Roanoke, Lynchburg, Danville, and Martinsville areas especially, and most likely on Virginia Tech campus as well. We Dems were already going to get crushed west of Lynchburg there but it's really going to be bad now. We do need to hold our own there plus win the traditionally Democratic parts of VA like the Washington DC suburbs of course and the Richmond and Hampton Roads areas as well. Blacks and other minority turnouts' are keytoo. We'll have to see if this still resonates on Election Day 2016 like it is now. It will almost certainly hurt us Dems in the other key swing state of NC as well and probably take away any chance we have there. It could hurt us in OHIO OHIO OHIO (looking more and more like the 2nd most important swing state now) too there is at least a small VA-OH there especially in southern OH. VIRGINIA VIRGINIA VIRGINIA right now is huge no question about it. Also the "270 firewall" doesn't mean a darn thing if we Dems don't hold on to VA. I'd now say that it's a good bet that Tim Kaine will the be Dem VP pick doesn't matter whom the Democratic nominee is whether it be Hillary, Bernie, or Biden just because of VA and VA alone. Again just more proof that anything and everything can happen daily in politics. Wait and see as always. Version: 54 Hillary vs. Trump as of today August 27, 2015. No VP candidate listed as of right now. Watch the Hispanic vote especially in AZ which could actually flip in this scenario believe it or not. It could very well depend upon whether there is a Hispanic on the Republican ticket Rubio especially but I highly doubt he'll agree to be Trump's running mate though. However if anyone else but Trump is the nominee AZ is still at least "lean R" if not solid. I think CO flips Republican except if Trump's the nominee in which case I think she'll win keep it instead if that's the case only because of the Hispanic vote. TX could be interesting too but it's still way Republican to flip as of now, but in this scenario I can definitely see TX as a "lean" state instead of a solid one and that Hillary could come within single digits, but that's only if Trump is her opponent she or Sanders too will definitely lose TX by double digits unless Trump is her opponent. The South could be interesting too but I still think only VA, NC, and FL are still as always the Dems' only hopes as of now. IA is a 50/50 tossup which could go either way but I think it's slightly Republican this time because of Hillary's unpopularity there and IA is a predominately white state as well but it still could Dem as I'm 50/50 on IA right now, but with Trump it might stay Dem too but only because it's still too Dem of a state to flip Republican but that too is still yet to be determined, and also of course because Trump is her opponent. IA is somewhat more than likely to flip Republican if any other Republican candidate is her opponent. Of course we might still be underestimating Trump but I think as of now that's still yet to be determined. Election Day 2016 is still an "eternity" away and anything and everything can happen in politics up until then. That has definitely been the case so far in this election who would have thought Trump would be the odds on favorite to win the Republican primary just two months ago? He still can lose if the establishment Republicans rally behind one specific candidate and sticks with them, most likely Rubio or Jeb. Wait and see as always! Version: 53 The "270 firewall" map. VIRGINIA VIRGINIA VIRGINIA is definitely the key state here no question about it. This is actually very possible believe it or not especially with a Rubio/Kasich Republican ticket. Version: 51 Best case Hillary vs. Trump scenario as of August 23, 2015. Still no VP candidate listed. Is this overestimating the actual Hillary vs. Trump numbers? Probably. Most of my fellow Democrats don't think so but I have to disagree with them on this one I still think the country is still way too polarized for a major landslide in either direction in either party. I think AZ is truly our Dems best if not only hope for a "surprise win" this time simply because of the Hispanic vote. The Omaha NE congressional district is the other and possibly the Lincoln NE district too. I now think MO, IN, and GA are "fool's gold" even in this scenario I originally thought those three states and possibly AR too were winnable in a best case Hillary vs. Trump scenario but not anymore. Howevert they can still flip too if Dem turnout is abnormally high and GOP turnout is abnormally low. Is this overhyping Hillary and underhyping Trump again in the South? Again probably. Many Dems say she can actually compete with Trump in the South and yes Appalachia but once again I have my doubts. It will still be at least somewhat better for her than it was for Obama but probably still not enough to win any states except for VA, NC, and FL. My last map was Hillary vs. Trump worst case scenario, and this one was my best case. The next one will be the "average" case if you will. Even in both the worst and best case scenarios though there will be no Ronald Reagan or Richard Nixon like landslides in either party. For that to ever happen again something major would really have to happen. Again that's possible but not likely. This map actually might the closest thing to it, and even this one is still not a really, really major landslide. I think the GOP establishment's best if not only chance of beating Trump is uniting behind one candidate and stick with him probably the whole entire way, and I think the sooner the better as well. I do think Trump will be one of the final two Republican candidates. The question now is who will be his challenging? Rubio is probably the favorite as of right now it looks like. Also remember neither Hillary nor Obama is very popular right now and that could help any Republican out Trump or no Trump. You still can't 100 percent completely rule Sanders out either he is doing much, much better in the polls than even I anticipated, just like Trump. Election Day 2016 is still a long way away and anything and everything is possible in politics. The last two months have already borne that out. Wait and see as always! Version: 50 Worst case Hillary Clinton scenario against strong generic Republican candidate, as of today August 22, 2015. Wait and see as always! Version: 49 Hillary vs. Trump as of today August 21, 2015. No VP candidate listed. It looks like it will be a much closer election than I originally thought it would be, unless there is a lot of change both this year and next in the period shortly before Election Day 2016. I now think Hillary will win CO mostly because of Hispanic vote and Trump will probably be weak there among Hispanics as well. Just noticed Obama's approval ratings are somewhat down as well, hurting Hillary even further as of today. Wait and see as always! Version: 48 Hillary vs. Trump as today August 19, 2015. No VP candidate listed. Am I underestimating Trump and will he do much better than this? Probably. It all depends upon the state the country is in the months right before and on Election Day 2016, Obama's approval ratings, and how weak Hillary is at that time and how strong Trump will be at that time as well. Finding a VP candidate could be very difficult for Trump since many establishment GOP candidates might not agree to be his running mate, but I think in Trump's particular case finding the right running mate is huge with a capital "H" and even could make or break his campaign. Even if Trump is the Republican nominee though I still don't see a Democratic landslide at the present time that some of my fellow Democrats say will happen I still think the country is way too polarized and conservatives still too much anti-Hillary for that to happen. I've given up on MO and IN. CO will be better for Hillary against Trump than probably any other Dem simply because of the Hispanic vote. A lot of stuff is yet to be determined but as of now Trump is still ahead in the polls and I now think he's the odds on favorite in the Republican primary for the very 1st time, and Hillary still is too among Dems, even though she's at least somewhat weaker than she was a month and a half ago. Whether Sanders will continue to make inroads in the Democratic primary and whether Hillary will be weaker remain to be seen as well. Election Day 2016 is still an "eternity" away and a lot is still yet to be determined until then. Who would have thunk Trump would be ahead and definitely this much just a month ago? You just never know in politics. Wait and see as always! This map was actually made before the results of new CNN poll just issued this morning and Hillary is actually struggling some right now. Whether she'll continue to drop in the polls or not remains to be seen as well. Version: 47 Same as last map, except OH and VA are flipped, which is very, very possible if not likely as well. It looks like it could very well be a nailbiter this time. Election Day is still an "eternity" away, and anything and everything is still possible in politics. Wait and see as always! Version: 46 Looks like a much closer election than I previous thought no matter whom the Democratic and Republican candidates are. As of now it looks like OHIO OHIO OHIO and VIRGINIA VIRGINIA VIRGINIA will decide it all, and that really concerns me since there is a heavy "West Virginia" connection to both states, and they tend to vote heavily Republican sad to say just like most resident West Virginians. Even MN could now be in play. If MN goes Republican too us Democrats will be in big, big trouble. Ditto for PA and WI. It looks like there could be some other "shockers" as well. NH could be tricky too. I had small hopes for IN and MO but they both look like lost causes now, and MO could now even be lost to us Democrats during my lifetime just like AR, WV, and KY are right now sad to say MO is moving in the same exact direction as those three states it now looks like sad to say. CO and IA don't look good at all for us Democrats either right now. FL is 50/50 but sadly it too looks like it's leaning Republican now too sad to say. If there are any "shocking states" at all it could very well change the whole complexion of the election and decide the whole thing. There might not be any shockers as of now since the electoral map is pretty inelastic right now but then again you never know. As of now though it definitely looks like OHIO and VIRGINIA are the key states that will decide it all even if Hillary is the nominee, and I sadly have to say I don't like I'm seeing in either state right now and I live fairly close to both of them VA especially. I now think this is the case even if Trump is the nominee I think we Democrats are really, really underestimating him right now. I think both Democrats and Republicans are underestimating Bernie Sanders too and I think I might be one of them I didn't think either he or Trump had a prayer of winning but I think I might be wrong about that too. It seems like my fellow Americans on all sides are sick and tired of "business as usual" and that's why both Trump and Sanders are doing so well, at least right now. Whether that will still be the case as the primary and general elections both unfold remains to be seen. It's still an "eternity" until Election Day 2016 though and anything and everything can and will happen in politics. Wait and see as always! Version: 45 Worst case Hillary scenario vs. generic Republican as of August 12, 2015 no VP candidate listed as of yet. Could she possibly lose this thing? I wouldn't have thought so just a month ago but now I'm not so sure, even against Trump, as the polls are showing right now she'd still beat Trump handily. However it also looks like as of right now against a strong Republican nominee Hillary is far from a sure thing and Sanders is almost polling as well as she is right now against generic Republican candidates. If the Republicans win they could very well have both houses of Congress, the Supreme Court, and the presidency as well. I thought that OH would only be winnable if Kasich were on the ticket and ditto for FL if either Bush or Rubio were but if the Republican tide is great enough they might even flip without them. VA is even in question too right now, as is NH. If that happens this country is screwed except for the richest 1 percent whom I'm sure would absolutely love it. Also it also looks as of now MO is not in play either, at least in the latest PPP poll. Definitely "wait and see as always!" Version: 44 Hillary vs. Trump as of August 10, 2015. No VP candidate listed. I still think most if not all Romney states will go for Trump except possibly NC and perhaps the Omaha NE congressional district as well. If Trump just happens to win the nomination his VP choice will be very critical to his campaign. Many top-notch Republicans probably might not agree to be his VP mate, and that could cause him some serious problems. Hillary is having problems herself too right now. Whether that will still be the case the previous weeks before Election Day 2016 remains to be seen. Obama's approval ratings and the state of the country the previous weeks before Election Day 2016 will be critical as well. Wait and see as always! Version: 43 Hillary vs. Trump, as of today August 8, 2015, no VP candidate listed, assuming that Hillary is still strong on Election Day 2016, and Obama's approval ratings are up at least in the upper 40s. I'm beginning to think that perhaps we Democrats are underestimating Trump right now me included. Trump has a lot more support among white evangelicals than I thought he'd ever have. Could he actually pull this off? Sadly it's not nearly as far-fetched as I first thought. The question is can Trump win over moderates and independents? He just might because Hillary is kind of weak with them right now. Wait and see as always. Version: 42 Jeb/Kasich vs. Hillary/Kaine This is actually the most logical matchup right now, unless Trump wins the GOP nomination. I never ever thought before that VA would go Dem before OH but it looks like that could very well happen believe it or not, especially in this matchup. Watch MN, WI and MI too. I don't think they'll go Republican but Hillary is polling very weak in MN right now and Kasich is a Midwesterner who could help Jeb somewhat up there. However I think to actually flip any of those three states Kasich would have to be on the absolute top of the ticket and not as the VP running mate. Wait and see as always. Version: 41 It looks like it will all come down to OH and VA, especially if we Dems lose CO, IA, and FL which sadly is looking more and more likely. If Kasich is the VP candidate, and I think there is a very good chance he very well may be, even OH could go the other way. I do think Kasich has to be on the ticket though for OH to flip. Ditto in FL with either Jeb or Rubio. A Bush/Kasich ticket might very well flip both of them. If that's the case VIRGINIA VIRGINIA VIRGINIA becomes huge with a capital "H." I have it as Republican right now but it is definitely 50/50. That might force Hillary into taking either Kaine or Warner as her running mate I say it will probably be Kaine if I had to guess right now. NC could also be surprisingly huge as well. Hillary is struggling in the polls everywhere while Trump and Sanders are surging right now. Sanders and Trump have continued to shock me so far. Could either one if not both of them possibly be the nominees? I wouldn't have "thunk" so a month ago but as of now it might very well happen believe it or not. Hillary probably wouldn't even win the nomination if a 20 years younger version of Sanders was her opponent, and she still might not win it even over Bernie believe it or not. Even if Hillary is the nominee she could very well be weakened, perhaps big time as well. Also the Great Lakes' states now look very interesting too Hillary only leads now by three points in MN believe it or not. I put MN, WI, and MI all as tossups now. If Hillary loses just one of those states she'll probably lose the whole entire election. I don't think she will as of now but it's still far from a sure thing. So far my saying has come true. It's still an "eternity" until Election Day 2016, and anything and everything can happen in politics, and already has, and probably will continue to do so. Definitely wait and see as always! Version: 40 Hillary vs. Trump worst case Trump scenario as of today August 5, 2015. No VP candidate listed as of yet. Well it looks like Trump is still doing even better in the polls and could actually even beat Bush believe it or not. Looks like a two-man race as of now unless another Republican catches fire and that is still very possible too especially in today's political climate. I might grossly be underestimating Trump though as well, especially in the southern states but even there Hillary leads Trump right now which would be great but I don't expect that to continue, at least not yet. And Hillary still has major problems of her own too right now. I can actually see Trump beating her in a worst case Hillary scenario. I think the right VP candidate is more crucial for Trump than any other Republican candidate if he in fact does win the Republican nomination. That could be tricky for him since the establishment as of now doesn't like him and many of them might actually turn him down believe it or not. It's still an "eternity" until Election Day and anything and everything can still happen until then. Definitely "wait and see as always" in this scenario!<br /> Version: 39 Hillary vs. Jeb as of August 4, 2015 no VP candidate listed. No more Bushes please! I'm not a Hillary fan either but sadly she is still "the lesser of all evils" in this particular case. Sadly that's whom my fellow Americans both Democrats and Republicans want unfortunately the Clintons and the Bushes yet again. Trump could surprise Bush but I highly doubt it. Hillary's very, very fortunate that Bernie Sanders isn't 20 years younger. There are only really six "swing states" right now: OH, VA, FL, IA, CO, and NC. Also perhaps the Omaha NE congressional district. That's despite the fact we're so divided. However almost all states are pretty rock solid one way or the other right now. That could change if Trump is the GOP nominee but almost certainly won't in a Hillary vs. Jeb race which looks the most possible matchup as of today. Wait and see as always! Version: 38 Hillary vs. Trump as of August 3, 2015 no VP candidate listed, the "middle" Hillary vs. Trump victory as of now. I think Jeb Bush will be the Republican nominee instead. Right now it's between Jeb, Trump, and Walker. I think Hillary will win a general election over Trump and Walker. Jeb would at least make it closer than Trump and Walker and probably keep at least the Romney states with the possible exception of NC. There's still a long, long way to go though until Election Day 2016 and anything and everything can happen in politics until then. Wait and see as always! Version: 37 Clinton vs. Bush as of August 1, 2015 no VP candidate listed. Sadly it looks like we're stuck with the "lesser of two evils" once again. I'm not a huge Hillary fan at all but please no more Bushes please. Haven't they already done enough damage to our country already? WV my home state sadly is probably the 5th most pro-Bush state only behind UT, WY, ID, and OK. Most West Virginians sadly still worship all the Bushes unfortunately. Sadly the very fact the Clintons and Bushes are still the favorites today in 2015 tell you just how broken our system is right now. It's sad it really is, but apparently that's still whom the American people want they keep voting them back in office. It's sad my friends it really is. The only real swing states as always are NC, FL, OH, CO, IA, and VA. Only six of them. Despite the fact that American is more divided than ever most states are still very, very rock solid one way or the other right now, which makes this even sadder. I had the most trouble out of CO and IA they don't like Hillary at all but they don't like Bush at all either. NC is basically 50/50 too the other way. I think FL goes for Bush too as much as I hate it I. VA and NC are pretty anti-Bush states I expect them both to go Democratic. OH will probably be the key state this election it goes for Hillary by a whisker at least for now. Can Hillary hold on right now to the Democratic nomination despite falling poll numbers and Sanders and perhaps Biden too gaining huge ground on her? She probably will I just hope and pray she's not weakened by then. She just got very, very lucky and dodged a major bullet in that Sanders wasn't 20 years younger or she probably would have lost the Democratic primary again just like she did in 2008. She dodged a major, major bullet this time. She'll have to be very careful in choosing a VP candidate she can't go too liberal but at the same time she still needs the Sanders' supporters too they'll be clamoring for an ultra-liberal like Sanders is and that could cost her independent voters. She has to be careful with the African-American and white voters too she can't go too much against Obama because she'll lose some of the black vote, not so much in them voting Republican but blacks staying home instead without Obama on the ticket anymore. But she still needs the white working class too. How much better will Hillary do than Obama in the South especially in KY, WV, and AR? She'll definitely do somewhat better than Obama did but sadly not nearly as much it looks like than I originally thought she would. I was hoping she'd do better in all three of those states but sadly it doesn't look like she'll do nearly as well as I had hoped for. Just like 2008 and 2012 it just looks like FL, VA, and NC and that's it. She'll lose FL because of Jeb but I think she will gain NC in return Bush is not very popular in NC or VA either. NC still almost went for Obama a 2nd time and I definitely think Hillary can Bush there it will all determine on African-American turnout and also how many or few white working class voters in NC will break her way. CO, IA, and OH all look like dead 50/50 heats right now. OH will probably stay with Hillary because Obama won there twice and Hillary is even a better fit for OH than Obama was, but again by not nearly as much as I originally hoped for. Sad to say the Clinton and Bush dynasties are still alive and well in 2015 as much as I hate it, simply because they are both still very popular with the base of their parties sad to say, and the bases of the parties almost always decides whomever win the primaries anymore. Sad but true. Can Trump stop Bush? Possible but not likely as of now. Hillary got very, very lucky in that they didn't find a younger like version of Bernie Sanders or else I think she would have been toast once again in 2016 just like she was in 2008. It's still an "eternity" until Election Day 2016 and anything and everything can happen in politics. But as of now it sadly looks like a Clinton or Bush will be president once again unless something really drastic happens between now and until then. Maybe Trump can stop Jeb but I highly doubt it. Hillary looks like she'll only get token opposition from Sanders and perhaps some others but it doesn't look likely at all as of now. I wish that weren't the case but sadly it still is unfortunately. But she's the only Democratic candidate that can win the whole thing right now especially against Jeb, except possibly if Trump is the nominee and probably not even then. I'm very, very depressed about our choices for president right now. More candidates than ever before yet none of them worth a crap except perhaps Hillary and I still really don't like her either sad to say. My fellow Americans my fellow white evangelicals especially please wake up please. I'm going against my whole church this time as well I'm the only Hillary voter in my church unless there is a secret one and I highly doubt it sad to say. And of course the fact that the Clinton and Bush dynasties are likely to continue. Sad but true. Could Hillary and/or Jeb foul things up between now and Election Day? Possible but not likely sad to say. Even if they do they'll probably get a pass on it unlike the rest of the field. Wait and see as always. Version: 36 Hillary vs. Trump worst case Hillary scenario as of July 31, 2015. No VP candidate listed as of now. Could this possibly happen? Only if Trump continues his surprising rise in the polls, Hillary continues her surprising drop in the polls (I figure she might lose some in the polls but it's kind of more than I expected right now), the Confederate flag and gay marriage issues resonate stronger than we think especially in the Southern swing states, race relations continue to be bad, Obama's approval ratings are lower than normal, the economy is mediocre, and the Iran deal is not as good as originally advertised slightly before and on Election Day. It's going to take a lot for Trump to win and Hillary to lose but that scenario I just listed above is now more possible than I previously thought. Hillary can still win if she carries one of OH, VA, FL, or less likely NC. Just one, which is very possible in this scenario. Losing one or both of CO and IA still wouldn't hurt her if she did that. If she carried both CO and IA she'd still win, even though that now seems much less likely than it was just one short week ago. Trump would need a lot to go his way as well. He'd need a strong VP candidate too probably a lot more than Hillary would. That could be an issue too believe it or not if the establishment of the Republican Party tries to stonewall his campaign, discouraging some very decent candidates in the process. That could actually be an underrated issue believe it or not if Trump selects a weak VP candidate, or a strong one instead. Watch out for that too. Wait and see as always! Version: 35 Hillary vs. Trump worst case Trump scenario as of July 30, 2015. Still no VP candidate listed as of today. All 2012 Romney states stay Republican except for NC and the Omaha NE district, but by lesser margins. Can Hillary possibly flip any more of those states? It's still very doubtful as of now. Hillary however may be weakened herself in 2016 her poll numbers do seem to be dropping some right now. Whether that will still be the case on Election Day 2016 remains to be seen, as well as Obama's popularity and the shape of the country that day. The same is true for Trump's candidacy as well, and his strengths and weaknesses. Wait and see as always! Version: 34 Hillary vs. Trump as of today July 28, 2015. No VP candidate listed. I added IA, CO and NC to Trump unfortunately. I said earlier that Trump would struggle big time in the "swing states" but sadly it looks like the Republicans including very surprisingly the white evangelical base are supporting Trump much more than I thought they would. This map might even underestimate Trump. I hope and pray I'm wrong about this. I've said that the only Republicans who could carry FL are Bush and Rubio, and I'm sticking to that as of now but Trump might very well surprise me there as well. In this particular scenario OH, FL, and VA are the most important states, and perhaps CO and IA too I don't think it's Trump's high numbers hurting Hillary there as much as their intense skepticism of Hillary they don't seem to be good fits for Hillary right now CO especially. NC would be nice too for us Dems to pick up but I think Trump carries it by a slim 1 to 3 point margin. Hillary is having some problems of her own right now, and Obama and Sanders may both be bringing her down as well. It's still an "eternity" until Election Day 2016 though. Wait and see as always! Version: 33 Hillary vs. Trump no VP candidate listed as of July 27, 2015 "average" scenario. Could Trump actually pull this off? It now looks like that might very happen much to my surprise believe it or not. I now think there is a pretty decent possibility he might be the Republican nominee believe it or not. Again much to my surprise he's doing very, very well with the white evangelical base, at least he is here in WV according to my current observations, and that is the Republican base right now, and we all know by now the bases of both parties are the ones who decide both the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees. I might actually be short-changing Trump too especially in the South, especially with his very shockingly very good poll numbers among white evangelicals. Most general election polls have him not doing that well in the South and that's what I base this poll on as of now, but after midnight tonight I'll probably change them to his "best case" scenario. Hillary is kind of struggling right now as well to my unpleasant surprise. I think President Obama is currently bringing her down as well. I wonder what the next poll has to say about Obama's approval numbers, as that will be huge in 2016. Race relations are very, very poor right now the worst I've seen them since them in my entire lifetime, and I'm not joking either. That too could bring Hillary down. It's still an "eternity" until Election Day 2016 and anything and everything can still happen in politics. Will Trump continue his lead and his very surprisingly great poll numbers among white evangelicals? Wait and see as always! Version: 32 Hillary vs. generic Republican as of July 26, 2015. No VP candidate listed as of yet. It's all up to OH and VA right now it looks like. Possibly but not as likely FL, CO, IA, and NC too. Of course as always this is subject to change. There's still an "eternity" left until Election Day 2016. Wait and see as always! Version: 31 Generic 3-way race between Hillary-Trump-Generic Republican nominee as of July 25, 2015 no VP candidate listed. I'm not good at all making 3-way maps. Whether this will actually happen believe it or not remains to be seen I still don't think it will but then again you just never know nowadays. Obviously the main problem the Republicans have at least in my opinion is that Trump will cost the Republicans all of the "swing states" not just one but all of them, and probably the Omaha district in NE as well. I still think most Romney states are solid and still will go Republican, except for even if Trump runs and will still go Republican, with the exception of North Carolina which was and still is close enough to flip back Democratic in this scenario, and at least one if not two of the NE congressional districts the Omaha one especially. But I could be wrong about that too. There are some states that probably will be in play that are otherwise "fool's gold" for us Democrats. Whether Trump will cost the GOP those states too remains to be seen. Even if Trump only polls a small amount it will probably cost the Republicans at least the states that are 50/50 otherwise. Of course I could be overhyping or underhyping Trump too but he'll at least cost the GOP the "swing states" and possibly more, depending upon the exact percentage of votes that he actually gets. I think the Republican hate for Hillary and Obama (and almost certainly Sanders too) is enough though to keep all Romney states except NC and one if not both NE districts obviously in their column. The only exceptions could be but probably won't even in this scenario are AZ, MO, IN, and GA and NE-2 (Lincoln district was Omaha in 2008 but they've switched them I think). I still think that even Trump is intelligent enough to drop out if things get really bad for the GOP but then again you just never know. Of course if there is a 3-way race I could be very be wrong in either direction, but I am still fairly certain that Trump will at least cost the Republicans the all-important swing states in this scenario which is damaging enough. The exact Republican nominee whomever that is will probably have everything to do with it as well. Election Day is still an "eternity" away and anything is possible if not probable in politics. Wait and see as always! Version: 30 It might very well come down to OHIO OHIO OHIO, especially if we Democrats lose CO, IA, FL, and especially VA. It's looking like that could very well happen as of July 24, 2015. Wait and see as always! Version: 29 It now looks like the Quinnipiac poll might be overstating Hillary's weaknesses. That said I'm being cautious I'm giving the Republicans IA and CO but us Dems OH and VA again. FL is still 50/50 with the slightest of GOP edges, but Bush and Rubio probably would beat Hillary by 2 to 3 points if the election were held today while she'd probably beat anybody else in FL. They didn't directly poll Hillary vs. Trump but they did poll Trump's unfavorables and they were very, very high, just like Hillary's, but I now think they may have overstated that as well. As for the southern states I now have them all as solid except for VA, FL, NC, and GA which I have as lean I highly doubt Hillary will carry GA except in a Ronald Reagan-like Democratic landslide or perhaps but still not likely if Trump is her Republican opponent. Some other southern states like AR and KY could be closer and just lean instead but I'm staring to doubt it especially with the events that have happened down there recently. NC is especially interesting but I think it's Republican by at least a whisker right now. If Quinnipiac is right then Hillary would have to carry OH to win the election and it wouldn't be likely if that is the case according to their numbers. OH seems to be the key state now especially if Bush or Rubio is the nominee, and possibly VA and possibly but less likely FL. Wait and see as always! Version: 28 Hillary vs. Generic Republican no VP candidate listed yet as of July 22, 2015 based on the last Quinnipiac poll saying she is very weak in crucial swing states CO, IA and VA. Whether this poll is accurate as of now I still don't know as of now but if it is it is very bad news for Hillary and us Democrats. Obama might be hurting her and perhaps Sanders too, or even both. It could all very well depend upon the exact Republican candidate as well. She could struggle against a very strong Republican candidate but then again she could do very well against a weak one. One thing that also should alarm us Dems is that this is the very first poll to my knowledge that actually says Sanders could outperform her in a general election as well. I don't know if that's true or not I actually have very serious doubts about that, but if it is indeed true that could actually hurt us Dems instead of helping us, especially against a very strong GOP candidate. Also could Sanders actually beat a Republican in the general election much less beat Hillary in the primary? I still don't think so but then again you just never know, especially if he actually shocks the world and wins the Democratic nomination over Hillary and then faces a weak Republican candidate, which is still very possible as well. I think Obama could very well be hurting Hillary too especially in VA. Maybe I wasn't wrong about the Rebel Flag and gay marriage issues all along, especially in the southern swing states of VA, NC, and FL and perhaps even OH as well especially in the southernmost parts of the state. I also read though that this same pollster Quinnipiac actually had Romney beating Obama as well at times, making this scenario even more questionable. In this map OHIO OHIO OHIO is definitely the key state no question about it. It's definitely 50/50 here. Perhaps FLORIDA FLORIDA FLORIDA too but not as likely. Definitely definitely definitely wait and see as always! Version: 26 Hillary vs. Trump as of July 20, 2015. No VP candidate listed as of now. Could this actually happen? I still highly doubt it but you never know in politics. Heck the way things are going right now Sanders could even win the Democratic nomination, or Trump could run 3rd party. I hope I'm wrong about Sanders winning the nomination, but right about Trump going 3rd party of course, and I also hope and pray I'm wrong about this possibly underestimating Trump, especially in the 2012 Romney states which many people say that Trump could very well lose some of them. But according to my very own observations I might very well be too generous to Hillary here and definitely underestimating Trump. The reason that I say that is because to my very unpleasant surprise very many white evangelicals including ultra-socially conservative Pentecostals especially believe it or not(southern West Virginia is Pentecostal country) are supporting Trump right now believe it or not, and he is actually doing very, very surprisingly well among them despite having a reputation of being a very social liberal Republican candidate, kind of like Rudy G in 2008. But Trump is doing much, much better among white evangelicals and the Republican base right now than Rudy G ever did. This could actually be a rather much closer election than most people think, but it could be an historic landslide as well. I'm currently going with the "middle" solution which is very possible too a mini-Hillary blowout. But you just never know in politics anymore. If Trump continues his very surprising success among white evangelicals than it could very well be a much, much closer race than what I have listed on this map. But then again Hillary could blow him out of the water as well. I just don't know right now. Again more proof that Election Day is still 15 months away which is an absolute eternity in politics, that and anything and everything can and will happen as well. Wait and see as always! Version: 24 Hillary vs. Generic Republican as of today July 17, 2015. No VP candidate listed, as of yet. This could change some but probably not a lot, since the current electoral map is very inelastic right now. Obviously this could change depending upon her Republican opponent, and depends upon many factors up to Election Day especially Obama's approval ratings then. The closest states are CO, NC, FL, OH, IA, and VA as of now. I am especially unsure about CO, NC, and FL they all are 50/50 dead heats they could go either way. This map also assumes the recent events of the past month will mean little or nothing come Election Day, which I'm 50/50 on right now, and Obama's approval ratings are in the upper 40s and lower 50s leading up to and including Election Day. However if his approval ratings are in the low to mid 40s or even lower a strong Republican candidate can very easily do much better than this. I say "strong" because I don't think most if any current Republican candidates as of July 17, 2015 can still beat Hillary regardless of Obama one way or the other, at least right now, unless Hillary is a weaker candidate than expected which is actually still a possibility too. It looks like she dodged a major bullet this time too because a younger, more charismatic, more dynamic, non-Socialist version of Bernie Sanders would have given her major fits. But unlike 2008 of course when she had a strong Democratic challenger (we all know the story by now) in the primary I don't think Sanders will be as as strong as Obama was in 2008. Hillary is also doing much better non-surprisingly this time with black voters too which are a huge demographic of the Democratic Party as well. I might be wrong though as far as that is concerned too. Election Day 2016 is still 16 months away and as we all know by now that is definitely an "eternity" in politics. Wait and see as always! Version: 20 Hillary vs. generic Republican as of July 13, 2015. No VP candidate listed. This is the "razor thin" close scenario, in which she'll lose all the South because of the Confederate Flag, gay marriage, and of course all other issues but hold on to most of the non-Southern swing states besides OH, and where VA is a tossup but still leaning Republican as well. This could very well happen in this divided environment we have in the country today. However despite the U.S. being a divided nation most of the states are actually pretty solid one way or the other with very, very few "true swing states" right now. It's as inelastic as it's been in quite some time. There won't be many states flipping one way or the other this time either, except in a landslide, and as of now a "true landslide" in the order of a Ronald Reagan-like one especially is very, very unlikely right now unless one candidate really, really catches on fire, and that is very, very unlikely to happen even with Hillary on the top of the ticket. I think she is more likely to do so than any other candidate Democratic or Republican but it's a less than 10 percent chance even with her. Of course CO, IA, and PA are the main states in this scenario. If any of these states goes Republican in this scenario than Hillary still loses. CO is the probably the most likely, with IA next. PA is still very, very unlikely Hillary should be ok there but it's still far from a sure thing. Wait and see as always. Version: 19 Hillary vs. Generic Republican as of July 12, 2015. No VP candidate listed, that is if all current map if all the current polls are true, which I'm highly skeptical of right now, especially the Southern states. I now think VA is going to go Republican but the polls are still showing Hillary and the Democrats ahead right now. I think the South is more solidly Republican right now as well. This is probably more like the polls two weeks ago than they are now except perhaps for NC and FL, as I think the South is much more solid Republican now than two weeks ago because of recent events the last two weeks. I would love for this map (except for FL and NC which would have definitely been 50/50 if not even slightly Democratic two weeks ago but at least slightly leaning Republican right now) to be right and me proven wrong though. Also I think the Omaha NE district is now officially NE-1 instead of NE-2 in the last election cycle I noticed most maps on here still have it as NE-2 but I do think they switched the 1 and 2 districts though for this particular election cycle. Most maps here have it going at least lean Republican I've noticed but Obama still only lost it just slightly in 2012 after actually carrying it in 2008, and the Omaha NE district still voted Democratic in the House election there even with the heavy pro-Republican tide nationwide in 2014. I think we Dems still might have a shot at the Omaha NE district in 2016 as well and if there is a pro-Democratic tide (which I don't think there will be but then again you never know in politics) it could very well shock the nation once again in 2016 as well. The events of the last two weeks definitely prove that you never know what's going to happen in politics from day to day, and there is still an "eternity" until Election Day 2016, and anything and everything can and will happen until then. Wait and see as always. Version: 18 The possible map if the Confederate Flag and gay marriage issues backfire on us Democrats. We still lose the South big but in this particular scenario we do poorly in the rest of the country too. Most if not all the polls are not showing this right now in fact they're completely different from my map but I still think the Republicans will vote in much higher numbers than Democrats and are much motivated in 2016 than they were in either 2008 or 2012. NC, FL, and yes even VA could all be as good as gone now, not just for 2016 but for my entire lifetime as well. I just hope and pray the pollsters are right this time and I'm wrong. I'm either overestimating the the Republican voters, underestimating them, or placing just average I'm torn equally on all three possibilities. Not just that but that they're also currently predicting a Bush vs. Clinton matchup right now, and I just wish that the darn Bushes would get out of politics and leave us the heck alone but sadly the American people must still strongly disagree with me unfortunately, and Hillary Clinton much to my dismay is still as of right now July 11, 2015 the only Democratic candidate capable of winning the presidency in 2016, and if she doesn't we may yet have another Bush in office or just as bad if not even worse Donald Trump believe it or not. I'm still concerned that Sanders may very well hurt Hillary as well by possibly pushing her too far to the left and thereby alienating independent voters. Sadly this could very well be the case unfortunately. It's still an eternity until Election Day and anything and everything can and will happen in politics, just like Trump and Sanders' recent shocking surges in the polls. Wait and see as always. Version: 17 Hillary vs. Generic Republican. No VP candidate listed. The "ultimate division" map as of July 10, 2015. In this particular scenario the whole South is solid except for VA and FL and even they are lean Republican. Yes I do think there is a chance that VA is now lean Republican too in this scenario. though I'm sure most on here will strongly disagree with me on this even now. NC is solid this time. This is is due to the Confederate Flag and gay rights controversies. Outside the South though not so. OH of course is the key swing state here, and in this scenario it is definitely 50/50 that's for sure. However Hillary in this scenario can still win the election even if she still loses OH if she keeps PA, IA, and definitely CO in her column. It's COLORADO COLORADO COLORADO that is the biggest swing state of them all, especially if OHIO OHIO OHIO goes Republican. The same is true for IOWA IOWA IOWA, where there is a chance that Hillary may not do as well in either primary or general elections in IA as Obama did. PENNSYLVANIA PENNSYLVANIA PENNSYLVANIA could be close too but I think this time Hillary keeps it her column. In this particular scenario Hillary could very well lose the popular vote but still win the electoral college, which of course if this were to happen she'd be the first Democratic presidential candidate ever to achieve this. I'm almost certainly overhyping the solid South this time, and perhaps the non-South too - or am I? People here I live in WEST VIRGINIA WEST VIRGINIA WEST VIRGINIA are very angry right now over the Confederate Flag issue, and the gays rights' issue as well. I say the same is true for the rest of the South as well. I know a good bit about VIRGINIA VIRGINIA VIRGINIA too since my home county borders VA and I often visit VA once or twice per month,and since I have a lot of family members who live in VA as well. It's far from a sure thing for us Democrats especially with the way things are right now. In VA it's really Washington DC bordering counties-urban Northern VA-Hampton Roads area-major cities vs. VA west of Lynchburg-rural Northern VA-Southside VA-all of rural VA. Turnout will be vitally important, and unlike 2008 and 2012 I think the voter turnout at least slightly favors the Republicans this time because they're more fired up right now than the Democratic voters African-Americans especially since Obama is not on the ticket this time. Watch out for the very underrated VA Hispanics too they are increasing in number big time especially in the urban areas in VA and this might save Hillary even if other Democratic base voters' turnout is down. NORTH CAROLINA NORTH CAROLINA NORTH CAROLINA is looking less likely in this particular scenario but if this scenario is wrong than NC could very well be a swing state in 2016 just like it was in 2008 and 2012 but I kind of doubt it right now because of what's happening in VA and it's even more Republican than VA, and just like VA this time the Republicans are more fired up again because of those two issues just like in VA, especially since the African-American voter turnout will probably be somewhat lighter just like VA and the rest of the Democratic base voter turnout will probably be lighter for the same reasons as in VA as well. Just like VA though the Hispanic vote is very underrated here and that could help Hillary more than you might think. The Hispanic vote is critical to Hillary's chances in CO and OH Colorado especially, and yes even IA too in a 50/50 state. The same thing is true for FLORIDA FLORIDA FLORIDA. Once again the Republicans are more fired up than the Democrats. The key in FL is the Cuban American vote as always and Democrats have been improving about Cuban American voters who have been at least leaning and sometimes even solidly Republican but it will be interesting to see if Hillary can keep that up with Obama now normalizing USA-Cuba relations. This is a very huge election in 2016 for many reasons. As we all know so well right now Election Day 2016 is still 16 months away and that's an eternity in politics. As always anything can and will happen. Wait and see as always! Version: 15 Hillary vs. generic Republican. No VP candidate listed. My "division map" as of July 8, 2015. It's basically the same except Ohio goes Republican this time, but it still could go the other way as well. Hillary should have a much more comfortable lead there than she currently does. CO, IA, and especially PA are the key states this time, and perhaps VA, OH, and FL as well. I do think the Confederate Flag and gay marriage issues will sadly still hurt Hillary in the South, at least costing her some, and possibly if not probably hurt her in some key battleground states. The only question is how much. Version: 14 Hillary vs. generic Republican as of July 7, 2015 if the current polls showing Obama's approval ratings and the latest election polls are correct. No VP candidate listed. I'm probably over-estimating her effect in the Southern states especially with the Confederate flag and gay marriage issues being very important down there. However the current polls are still having her doing very well doing there even after that. She probably still carries VA at best, and possibly NC and FL too but I strongly doubt it especially concerning what has happened the last two weeks. Could be interesting indeed... Version: 13 Hillary vs. generic Republican as of July 6, 2015 "shockingly blowout loss" map. Once again all this depends upon Obama's approval ratings which I do feel are being overly inflated right now, and exactly how much the Confederate flag and gay marriage issues resonate in the red (blue on this site) states the South especially. NC and FL are gone and probably even VA too. Outside the South the Obama approval rating is most important in this particular scenario, and I don't think he's as popular outside the South either as much as most people think, and this will hurt Hillary big time too if I'm right, and I hope and pray I'm wrong this time. Version: 12 Hillary vs. Generic Republican as of July 5, 2015. No VP candidate listed. My latest "division" map between red (blue on here) states especially in the South vs. blue (red on here) states. No change in states except CO this except the percentages are not quite as large this time. Before the Confederate Flag and gay marriage issues I thought that Hillary would win by a decent margin but I think it will be much closer now. Actually I am still not sure as to much that will hurt her just yet, and I'm not sure about the percentages either. If it does resonate with voters in the Republican states more then I think she'll definitely lose NC and probably VA and FL as well. OH and PA though northern states could also be tricky since there are quite a few of these types of voters here especially in OH. If it doesn't though she should be okay except perhaps for NC where even a few of these voters could keep NC in the Republican column in a very inelastic 50/50 purple state. VA would probably still go for her but the margin would still be reduced by a small amount, while in FL it depends upon how much it resonates in the normally Republican northern FL Pensacola-Jacksonville area. It could actually end up helping her somewhat in close but usually currently slightly leaning Democratic states CO and IA as well, again depending upon how people in states like these react to this as well. This also depends upon the exact sentiment too: whether normally Republican states especially in the South take these issues more seriously or whether people in the normally Democratic states will as well. I'm 95 percent certain these will more likely affect the normally Republican states the Deep South especially than they will in the normally Democratic states. If that's true Hillary likely had no chance in the South anyway, except it could her some in the Southern "swing states" like NC, and possibly if not probably VA, and FL as well. OH and PA could be still be tricky though OH especially, and perhaps CO and IA as well in the other direction in favor of Hillary. Wait and see as always! Version: 11 Hillary vs. Generic Republican shocking Hillary blowout loss map as of Independence Day July 4, 2015. No VP candidate listed. Nothing major has changed except maybe a few minor changed. The Confederate Flag, gay marriage, the "Dukes of Hazzard" brouhaha (yes Southerners do even vote on stuff like that believe it or not), the perception of a bad economy, and also the bad perception of Obama's foreign policy as well, the worst race relations since the 1960s (I now think a "blacks vs. whites" race war and/or Civil War II is likely if not imminent right now I hope and pray I'm wrong) along with guns and other "values" issues are still hurting Hillary big time and in this scenario especially cost us Democrats NC, FL, and probably VA as well. I still think this is very much possible and that Obama can still hurt Hillary big time. If this happened in 2012 instead of today 2016 Obama would have blown out of the water no question about it. The South is most likely gone too for good including NC and FL, and probably VA too, even for Hillary. I hope I'm wrong but I think that Obama will hurt Hillary big time. But then again I live in southern West Virginia where Obama's approval ratings are probably in the teens right now, I might be overhyping the white evangelical effect but according to my observations here in WV where there are a ton of them. I don't think I am sad to say they appear to be more motivated this election than I've ever seen them in my lifetime. I'm actually a white evangelical myself and I attend a white Pentecostal church and I'm probably the only one in my entire church that will vote for the Democratic nominee in 2016, and they appear more motivated this year than ever before to vote than I've ever seen them in my entire lifetime yes even against Hillary believe it or not, and they appear a lot more motivated than the Democratic voters are right now, at least according to my observations, than I've seen before in my entire life. My very own family and the few friends I have are solidly against me too and all plan to vote Republican and against Hillary in 2016 except for me. Obama is just very fortunate that wasn't the case in 2012 it is this year 2016 instead. Hillary could be hurt by President Obama's problems and yes Bernie Sanders could still hurt her too. It now looks like Jeb Bush might actually be the front-runner right now for the Republicans despite his family's former problems. I don't want another Bush but that looks very possible if not likely right now unfortunately. Hillary could have been challenged even more with a "non-Socialist" 20 years younger charismatic version of Sanders with similar viewpoints but it appears she got very lucky this time unlike 2008 when Obama suddenly came out of nowhere. It also doesn't look like Sanders will resonate with non-white voters the same way Obama did black voters especially, at least for now. The Republican nominee whomever that is will be a huge factor as well in 2016 Bush and yes trump too are doing much better in the polls than I ever thought they would. If the election were held today it probably be sad to say a "Clinton vs. Bush" race yet again (sad but true I hate that too but it looks very possible if not likely yet again sad to say). I'm still down myself we have more presidential candidates than ever before and yet every single one of them on both sides of the aisle suck except Hillary, and I'm really not that enthused by her either she's just the "least of all evils" choice. Kasich is probably the best Republican candidate right now but it doesn't look like he's going to resonate with the Republican base either white evangelicals especially. This map is only possible if my prior analysis is correct (which it very well may not be) and white evangelicals Pentecostals especially turn out big like I think they will this time, but that's not 100 percent set in stone either. It's still very, very early and Election Day is still 15 months away and that's an eternity in politics as we all well know by now. Wait and see as always. Version: 10 Exact same map as version 8 except CO goes Republican, this time making OHIO OHIO OHIO as the state which decides it all. In this scenario though COLORADO COLORADO COLORADO means everything too. Hillary has been struggling in the polls out there and always had problems in the Rocky Mountain states. But lately she has taken a razor thin lead. Sanders is surging big time right now and that worries me big time too. I think now he could hurt Hillary much more than I first thought he could. This is turning out to be a very interesting election indeed. Hillary should be ahead big time, but she's not, and that really concerns me too. PA could be interesting too I mention OH on my last map but not PA. PA is a state Republicans always think they can win but is "fool's gold" to them most of the time. Hillary should be leading PA much more than she currently is as well, because she is a much better fit for PA than Obama ever was yet he still won PA twice. Western PA except for the city of Pittsburgh as already been trending somewhat Republican. On the other hand the Philadelphia suburbs have been trending strongly Democratic, but could easily swing back Republican if a strong GOP candidate emerges. The key to PA is turnout too and those Philly suburbs swing voters as well. As for CO the key could be the Hispanic vote which is definitely important out there, depending upon turnout and how many Hispanics the Republicans can steal away from us Democrats. Right now it's looking good for us concerning them, but there are some more interesting things about CO as well. Obama was a much better fit for CO than Hillary currently is. Also how many of those "latte liberals" the Dems can keep in our column. Again it all depends on turnout as well. Definitely "Wait And See As Always!" this time. Version: 9 Hillary vs. Generic Republican. No VP candidate listed. This is my "division" map. This country is even more divided than I thought it was earlier this week. Yes I know there is one poll that had President Obama increasing his approval ratings but I think they over-hyped that sad to say. Blacks and whites now hate each other now more than any other time in my lifetime. We might arguably be back in the '60s again. Yes it's that bad right now. The South is pretty much gone now sad to say. I did have high hopes for NC but not anymore. The same is sadly probably true for VA and FL as well. The Confederate Flag and gay marriage issues, along with the burning of black churches, has taken over right now. I have Hillary winning it right now but a strong Republican can still easily beat her, and perhaps just not just a close margin either but by a shocking landslide too which I've pointed out on my other maps despite Obama's approval numbers apparently up (at least on the CNN poll) recently. However Gallup still has Obama struggling right now. Bernie Sanders could too be a wildcard Hillary would definitely be in trouble if a Sanders-like candidate 20 years younger who doesn't self-identify themselves as a Socialist and one with more charisma than Sanders as well. And I sadly think we might be underestimating Donald Trump as well. I don't think it's too far-fetched now to think he might actually be the Republican nominee. He has really nothing to lose he's got the money to spend and he can easily present himself as an outsider. The million dollar question on Trump is just how well or how poorly he will do with the white evangelical Republican base since he's probably at least somewhat liberal on social issues? To my dismay he actually seems to be doing very surprisingly well here in WV even among white evangelicals including those very underrated Pentecostal voters. I wouldn't have said that just a week ago. Jeb Bush is alarmingly doing very well right now and he could even beat Hillary in the general election as well. Again I definitely would not have said that just a week ago. It would be a travesty of a third Bush were to ever be president, and West Virginians have never been anti-Bushes like the rest of the country this actually be might be his best state of them all right now. I thought that KY might actually be just lean Republican with a much closer than expected 55-45 margin but again no more. I think CO and IA will be more solid Democratic than I originally thought and may be not be swing states these issues actually may help Hillary in both those states. It's really up to three states now, and possibly four, and that's it: OH, FL, PA, and VA. I actually think that maybe I'm too generous to Democrats in VA and FL and too generous to Republicans in PA. Yes I think the country is that divided right now, but the weird thing about is that even though we're a divided country most states are actually very rock solid right now one way or the other. It looks like it will all come down to OHIO OHIO OHIO as always. Will the social conservatism win out there, especially with the white evangelicals, or will the "bread and butter" issues win out instead? The key to all this will be turnout. Will the whites turnout more or will the non-whites do so? Will the white evangelicals turn out more or will the non-white evangelicals instead? How much will the labor unions' influence in Ohio matter? What will the economy look on Election Day 2016? How much will Obama and now Sanders too hurt or help Hillary? How will the Trans Pacific Partnership issue play out in a state that could be affected very badly by this? Will the urban vote be higher or will the rural vote be higher instead? Hillary is not exactly polling well in Ohio either right now, much to my unpleasant surprise. Even though they say Obama's approval ratings are up I just don't see it myself, but perhaps it's because I live here in southern WV where Obama's approval ratings are probably in the teens right now believe it or not. Here in the Bible Belt where I live the white evangelicals Pentecostals especially are fired up right now more than I've seen before in my lifetime. I think a "sleeping giant" might very well have been awoken this week the white evangelical Republican base. I think Hillary right now would win Ohio right now but only by a 50.2 to 49.8 whisker at the very most. But this can and probably will change by Election Day. 15 months is an eternity in politics and this past week is a perfect example. I would have picked Hillary to carry NC, VA,and FL too just a week ago but not anymore because of the rising white evangelical tide. Even Bush might win the whole darn thing again as well. I wouldn't have thought that would ever be possible considering the disasters his father and brother were but not anymore another Bush could actually win this darn thing yet again. We're definitely a 50/50 country right now and Ohio is a 50/50 state. Anything and everything can happen in politics in 15 months time. As I always say concerning politics "Wait And See As Always!" Actually I messed up. PA could be the most important state instead. If PENNSYLVANIA PENNSYLVANIA PENNSYLVANIA goes Democratic than we Democrats still can lose Virginia, Florida, and yes even OHIO OHIO OHIO, and still win by that 272-266 margin. But if PA shockingly goes Republican then Ohio will matter but I still think as of now we Democrats have a slight advantage in PA. But Hillary is struggling there right now as well. Politics is crazy right now you just don't know what's going to happen anymore. Version: 8 Hillary vs. Generic Republican shocking Hillary blowout loss map as of July 1, 2015. No VP candidate listed. This might be somewhat more unlikely now because of Obama's increasing approval ratings, but that might be actually over hyped too believe it or not because of the sharp racial divide between blacks and whites. There might one more state or two that goes for Hillary even in this scenario but I highly doubt it. I did place OR and ME-2 as Democratic again but in this situation they're still definitely in play. The South is lost except perhaps for VA and FL and those two states alone, and even there it doesn't look good for Hillary, at least in this map. Wait and see as always! Version: 7 Hillary vs. Generic Republican. No VP candidates mentioned. This is an update to my map version number 3 the "division map" as of June 29, 2015 except that there is actually more division rather than less. The states are still the same but there is somewhat much more of a division in this version than in my prior "division map" once again due to the Confederate flag and gay marriage issues and also because of the perception rightly or wrongly of the economy and/or foreign policy. In this map Obama hurts Hillary big time in the red states (blue on this site) but not nearly as much if any at all in the blue states (red on this site). In this scenario it might even be possible for Hillary to lose the popular vote but yet still win the electoral college. If that happens she would be the first Democratic candidate to ever do that, as every candidate who won the electoral college and still lost the popular vote before were Republicans. That would be absolutely crazy if it ever happened, and I do believe it's possible this time at least in this particular scenario. Wait and see as always! Version: 6 Hillary vs. Generic Republican as of June 29, 2015. No VP candidate mentioned. This is an update to map version number 4. In this particular scenario Obama doesn't hurt Hillary much if any at all, and the gay marriage and Confederate flag issues, along with the economy and foreign policy issues as well, just minimally. However it still could hurt her enough in a very close state to cost her a state especially the southern "swing states" like VA, NC, and FL and perhaps OH too. As of now though I have it not costing her VA and yes even NC. But it still very well may. I also have us Dems doing much better expected in KY and AR, where she's hanging in there right now despite Obama's unpopularity in both states. If that's true I'll probably have to add LA as well. I have my home state of WV at 60 percent but it's a 50/50 possibility that Hillary might keep the Republican percentage here below 60 perception. It's kind of weird that Hillary is actually polling much better in KY than WV because KY was always redder (bluer on this site) than WV until 2012 where WV was actually 3 points more Republican than KY this time. However eastern KY which is just like WV went strongly against Obama as well. However Obama didn't lose all that much in KY west of Lexington. It seems like the anti-Democratic tide in KY is much less Lexington westward than in eastern KY, which is kind of ironic since eastern KY was always much more Democratic than the rest of the state in the past but it's just like WV now. I have Hillary losing by just a lean margin but I sadly might be too bullish on that unfortunately, but primarily because of those eastern Kentucky "DINOS." I still think Hillary will almost defintely crack 40 percent in KY if this holds and my "division" and "Hillary shocking blowout loss" maps aren't correct. If those scenarios are right and this is wrong then it's at least 50/50 Hillary won't crack 40 percent in KY in the "division" map and sadly an almost guaranteed lock Hillary won't crack 40 percent in KY in the "Hillary blowout loss" scenario. If KY is lean then AR is definitely lean as well because Hillary will probably do at least somewhat better in AR than in KY because of her prior connections in AR. NC and FL are both dead heat 50/50 tossups right now. Any combination is possible right now. Rather surprisingly Hillary is actually polling better in NC than FL right now and that probably will stand if either Jeb or Rubio is the nominee. Otherwise FL will probably be at least slightly more Democratic than NC. In this scenario it's 50/50 as whether my home state of WV will go 60 percent Republican or not. The only way Hillary probably doesn't lose 60 percent here is if I'm overhyping the Confederate flag, gay marriage, guns, and especially the coal issues. Coal and guns will still probably be the top two issues here in WV as always but "values" issues resonate very strongly here as well especially in the southern part of the state my neck of the woods. Sad but true. Version: 5 Hillary vs. strong generic Republican as of June 28, 2015. No VP candidate listed. This is an update to my version number two due to the Confederate flag and gay marriage issues in the South and the perception rightly or wrongly about the economy and foreign policy, again with strong anti-Obama sentiment hurting Hillary once again especially in the South but this time not only there but also elsewhere too. It is mostly like that map except I have OR and ME-2 going Republican but I was probably generous to the Republicans even in this case OR and ME-2 probably stay Democratic even in this scenario but are still very, very close. I was probably too generous to the Republicans as far as percentages go too. Again I have my home state of WV at 70 percent to prove a point but maybe not as far-fetched as I originally thought and that's only because of Hillary and her alone any other Democrat might not crack 30 percent here in WV believe it or not. People here absolutely love the Confederate flag especially in my neck of the woods the southern part of the state even despite the fact that WV was technically a Union state during the Civil War. The gay marriage issue resonates here very strongly as well again in southern WV especially among white evangelicals Pentecostals especially. And of course the perception rightly or wrongly of the Democrats' coal and gun policies. Of course WV strongly hates Obama as well and WV might even be more Republican in this particular scenario than even ID and WY and yes possibly even GOP strongholds UT and OK believe it or not! Hillary is probably not as unpopular here as Obama that is probably the only reason her strong GOP opponent doesn't reach 70 percent even against her right now. Obama's approval ratings might even be in the teens in WV right now too believe it or not! IN should be strong too instead of just lean too that mistake I did catch. I said "strong" Republican just like before but in this particular scenario any Republican could possibly win by this margin but more than likely even in this case it would probably take a strong Republican to win by this margin. Again I say "strong" Republican candidate but any Republican can even win by this margin but not nearly as likely. Version: 4 Hillary vs. Generic Republican as of this date June 27, 2015. No VP candidates listed. In this particular scenario the Confederate flag and gay marriage issues only hurt Hillary by at most 1 percentage point. It could hurt Hillary especially in NC and FL but I highly doubt it even there. Also the anti-Obama sentiment is virtually non-existent except once again in the South but it was lost to Hillary anyway except for VA, NC, and FL. I have my home state of WV as 70 percent but only to make a point and that's it. But 60 percent is still possible if not likely even with a fairly non-existent anti-Obama trend elsewhere. Again the percentages could be off some. Also she carries CO by a razor thin margin whereas before she might have well lost it. Version: 3 Hillary vs. Generic Republican. No VP candidates listed as of June 25, 2015. The Confederate flag and gay marriage issues hurt Hillary especially in the South costing her VA, NC, and probably FL too. However not so much outside the South and it could actually help her instead in the western swing state of CO. In this particular scenario OH, PA, and probably IA too decide this election and they all go to Hillary by razor thin margins. OH could be tricky though because those particular issues could very well hurt her in the southern part of the state. The is true in the western part of PA as well. Again my percentages could be off some. Version: 2 This is the Hillary vs. Strong generic Republican candidate of of June 24, 2015 with a huge anti-Obama sentiment in the country especially in the South because of Obama using the N-word, the Confederate flag issue, and the gay marriage issue. This costs Democrats VA, NC, and probably FL as well. Outside the South it's because of the perception (right or wrong) of a weakening economy and also the perception President Obama has been weak on foreign policy and immigration issues. No VP candidate listed as of this time. I probably made some mistakes percentage wise but the states are correct. I said "strong" Republican but in this particular scenario any Republican could possibly win by this margin but more than likely even in this case it would probably take a strong Republican to win by this large of a margin. Version: 1 Hillary Clinton vs. Generic Republican as of June 17, 2015. The Confederate Flag and gay marriage issues still have not taken place yet as of this date. No VP candidates listed as of this date. MY percentages could be off some due to a lack of time but the vast majority of them should be correct. I think the Ohama district in NE (I think it's congressional House district number 1 instead of 2 this time not 100 percent sure I think the Nebraska legislature changed it for whatever reason) could be surprisingly close. President Obama actually carried the Omaha district back in 2008 and it just elected a Democrat to the House of Representatives in 2014 even despite a huge Republican trend that election. It could be surprisingly close once again. It will be interesting to watch that's for sure. Could Hillary possibly lose this time? Unlike most I still say "yes" unfortunately. Look at what happened in 2008, and look at the surprisingly large crowds that Bernie Sanders is getting right now at his rallies. If a Bernie Sanders-like candidate 10 to 20 years younger than him who doesn't self-describe himself or herself as a Socialist and has much more charisma happens to come along Hillary could actually be in serious trouble believe it or not. Very fortunately for Hillary that doesn't like it's going to happen and thank God for us Dems too as I don't think any Democrat besides Hillary can win this thing, at least as of now. I think the Confederate flag and gay marriage issues could still hurt Hillary as well especially in the southern swing states VA, NC, and FL, and possibly even OH because of southern OH which borders KY as well. A Republican like Kasich could give her problems too he is a "dark horse" for the Republicans right now. A "historic gaffe" could come back to haunt Hillary too. And last but definitely not least anti-Obama sentiment because of the perception rightfully or wrongfully of a bad economy and weak foreign policy. Election Day 2016 is still 16 months away and that's an eternity in politics. Anything and everything can happen before then. Wait and see as always!
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