Election 2016 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2015-07-06 Version:13

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	217
Rep	321
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	166
Rep	244
Ind	0
Tos	128

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-9	0	-115	18	2	217	-115
Rep	+9	0	+115	0	0	0	24	3	206	+115
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Hillary vs. generic Republican as of July 6, 2015 "shockingly blowout loss" map. Once again all this depends upon Obama's approval ratings which I do feel are being overly inflated right now, and exactly how much the Confederate flag and gay marriage issues resonate in the red (blue on this site) states the South especially. NC and FL are gone and probably even VA too. Outside the South the Obama approval rating is most important in this particular scenario, and I don't think he's as popular outside the South either as much as most people think, and this will hurt Hillary big time too if I'm right, and I hope and pray I'm wrong this time.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	33/35	24/35	57/70	81.4%	48	75	124	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	20/36	55/72	76.4%	52	75	173	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	19	7	1	T	118
2020 President	55/56	38/56	93/112	83.0%	193	6	260	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	22/35	55/70	78.6%	52	4	66	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	33	6	147	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	6	3	104	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	24/35	57/70	81.4%	135	0	24	T	483
2018 Governor	34/36	21/36	55/72	76.4%	66	2	122	T	372
2016 President	51/56	23/56	74/112	66.1%	290	1	473	T	678
2014 Senate	35/36	20/36	55/72	76.4%	22	13	122	T	382
2012 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	85	2	401	T	760
2011 Governor	4/4	3/4	7/8	87.5%	5	36	2	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	63	0	63	T	456
2008 President	53/56	43/56	96/112	85.7%	167	1	74	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	17/33	50/66	75.8%	21	7	117	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	16	0	50	T	264
2007 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	4	27	135	T	167
Aggregate Predictions	514/541	337/541	851/1082	78.7%

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