PredictionsMock2016 Presidential Predictions - MatteKudasai (D-NJ) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-08-24 Version:1

Prediction Map
MatteKudasai MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
MatteKudasai MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem348
 
Rep190
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem273
 
Rep163
 
Ind0
 
Tos102
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+1+1+16000272332+16
Rep000-1-1-16232190-16
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Quick reading of the map... to be honest, I waffled back and forth quite a bit on AZ/GA/NE-2. Put the first two in the R column, but I'll probably flip them if Clinton's still up ~6-7 past Labor Day. Next to flip would be MO and SC, then probably IN (though education #s look good for Trump) or MT (though the only poll has him up 20-something). On the other side, NE-2/IA would be the first to go, then NC, NV, OH and FL. Not too sure about PA/NH, but Clinton seems to have recovered a ~10 point lead in both since the conventions, so probably Lean D for now. Otherwise, CO/VA are looking safer every day for Clinton, so probably time to make the leap. Can't see how Trump would compete there unless educated whites swung towards him in a big way, and given how competitive blue-but-highly-educated areas are looking (GA/SC suburbs, NE-2, plus that KS-3 internal poll with Clinton up by about 6), Trump's chances look pretty slim.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


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Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2017 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 98 40T149
P 2016 President 48/56 30/56 78/112 69.6% pie 13 1 325T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 20/34 51/68 75.0% pie 3 1 60T362
Aggregate Predictions 81/92 51/92 132/184 71.7% pie



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