Date of Prediction: 2016-08-24 Version:1
Prediction Map Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
Quick reading of the map... to be honest, I waffled back and forth quite a bit on AZ/GA/NE-2. Put the first two in the R column, but I'll probably flip them if Clinton's still up ~6-7 past Labor Day. Next to flip would be MO and SC, then probably IN (though education #s look good for Trump) or MT (though the only poll has him up 20-something). On the other side, NE-2/IA would be the first to go, then NC, NV, OH and FL. Not too sure about PA/NH, but Clinton seems to have recovered a ~10 point lead in both since the conventions, so probably Lean D for now. Otherwise, CO/VA are looking safer every day for Clinton, so probably time to make the leap. Can't see how Trump would compete there unless educated whites swung towards him in a big way, and given how competitive blue-but-highly-educated areas are looking (GA/SC suburbs, NE-2, plus that KS-3 internal poll with Clinton up by about 6), Trump's chances look pretty slim.
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