Election 2016 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2015-11-23 Version:18

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	201
Rep	337
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	185
Rep	250
Ind	0
Tos	103

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-10	0	-131	17	2	201	-131
Rep	+10	0	+131	0	0	0	24	3	206	+131
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 67

THANK YOU MAINE LUMBERJACKS

Version: 64

Wisconsin and Michigan are the states I'm least confident that Trump will carry.

Version: 48

Moved Ohio from lean to strong R.

Version: 43

The Democratic Party has been blighted with the least competent major presidential candidate since George McGovern.

Version: 37

Donald J. Trump will assemble a left-centre-right coalition that will carry him to a landslide victory in November. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

Version: 36

Donald J. Trump will sew up the Republican nomination after California, and go on to win the presidency in November. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

Version: 35

Cruz/Ryan/Kasich vs. Clinton.

Version: 34

An optimistic projection for the GOP in a Ryan (or Cruz) vs. Clinton race.

Version: 32

March has been a terrible month for Trump.

Version: 29

Post Chicago.

Version: 27

Moved Minnesota to lean Democratic.

Version: 26

Trump vs. Clinton post-Iowa.

Version: 25

January 30th 2016: Trump (53.8%) vs. Clinton (44.4%). The result of playing around with FiveThirtyEight's Swing-O-Matic tool.

Version: 23

Trump vs. Clinton, January 2016.

Version: 22

Trump vs. Clinton, Christmas 2015.

Version: 20

Trump vs. Clinton vs. Sanders in light of the recent drama between the DNC and the Sanders campaign.

Version: 16

Trump v. Clinton one year out.

Version: 15

Trump vs. Clinton as of 11-03-15.

Version: 14

Trump vs. Clinton as of mid-October 2015.

Version: 11

This map assumes Trump and Clinton to be the nominees of their respective parties.

Version: 8

This map assumes Trump to be the nominee.

Version: 6

Clinton polls unusually poorly in Ohio. I would bet on a Republican victory here if Kasich or Paul were to win the nomination.

Version: 4

Recent polling indicates Clinton is a poor fit for Ohio.

Version: 2

A narrower margin of victory for the Democratic party's third term. Think 1988.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2020 President	51/56	43/56	94/112	83.9%	11	5	215	T	684
2018 Senate	33/35	22/35	55/70	78.6%	12	0	67	T	483
2016 President	51/56	33/56	84/112	75.0%	83	0	87	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	22/34	53/68	77.9%	7	0	16	T	362
Aggregate Predictions	166/181	120/181	286/362	79.0%