PredictionsMock2016 Presidential Predictions - GOPLibertarian (R-GA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-06-02 Version:2

Prediction Map
GOPLibertarian MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
GOPLibertarian MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem245
 
Rep293
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem213
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos119
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-6-1-87211245-87
Rep+6+1+87000243206+87
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
87473154
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

This is my second prediction, with my first being a generic hopeful. Let me explain why I made the changes I did.<br /> <br /> Trump's appeal to blue collar and steadfast conservative voters, I believe, will slide some Southern states back into the 60% GOP column a la 2004 while also making some Democratic states closer without flipping them, such as Massachusetts and Rhode Island. This will also make states like Oregon and New Mexico closer, but I doubt that either will flip to the GOP. This is because of hipster liberals for Oregon and Hispanics (and Gary Johnson) in New Mexico. Outside of Minnesota (due to minorities), the Midwest will be in greater play. I believe that Clinton will edge out in Wisconsin and Michigan, but Trump will carry Ohio while winning upsets in Iowa and Pennsylvania. Virginia might be closer if turnout near Appalachia occurs due to Trump's blue collar appeal, but I believe that the state is firmly Dem now due to becoming an extended D.C. My brave prediction is that New Hampshire and ME-02 flip.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 49/56 40/56 89/112 79.5% pie 1 249 434T684
P 2016 President 52/56 35/56 87/112 77.7% pie 2 159 35T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 2 135 164T362
P 2014 Senate 33/36 19/36 52/72 72.2% pie 4 5 177T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 11/36 42/72 58.3% pie 4 2 211T300
Aggregate Predictions 195/218 123/218 318/436 72.9% pie



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