Date of Prediction: 2016-06-02 Version:2
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This is my second prediction, with my first being a generic hopeful. Let me explain why I made the changes I did.<br /> <br /> Trump's appeal to blue collar and steadfast conservative voters, I believe, will slide some Southern states back into the 60% GOP column a la 2004 while also making some Democratic states closer without flipping them, such as Massachusetts and Rhode Island. This will also make states like Oregon and New Mexico closer, but I doubt that either will flip to the GOP. This is because of hipster liberals for Oregon and Hispanics (and Gary Johnson) in New Mexico. Outside of Minnesota (due to minorities), the Midwest will be in greater play. I believe that Clinton will edge out in Wisconsin and Michigan, but Trump will carry Ohio while winning upsets in Iowa and Pennsylvania. Virginia might be closer if turnout near Appalachia occurs due to Trump's blue collar appeal, but I believe that the state is firmly Dem now due to becoming an extended D.C. My brave prediction is that New Hampshire and ME-02 flip.
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