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Date of Prediction: 2015-11-26 Version:1
Prediction Map
Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
Analysis
Basically, I took the numbers from the most recent polls and subtracted Biden/any other candidate that is no longer running (minus the ones in "other" because I'm lazy)as well as "undecided" and then used the person with the most persentage, and devided that by what was left. For any state that has not been polled I used the average of 50% Hillary, high confidence (based on recent national polls). Also, confidence is based on the x<=2%, 2%<x<10%, x>=10% (or greater scale), so things with high confidence showed the frontrunner 10% or more above second place.
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