Election 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-05-04 Version:35

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Kasich	1
Bush	0
Rubio	3
Cruz	8
Trump	40
Carson	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Kasich	0
Bush	0
Rubio	1
Cruz	5
Trump	29
Carson	0
Other	0
Tossup	17

Analysis

With last night's decisive win in Indiana, Donald Trump knocked his last two rivals on the right out of the race, and is now the presumptive Republican nominee for President of the United States. I don't really expect to update this map after now, as I think Trump will probably win all of the remaining states by the kind of margins that Mitt Romney had in 2012 after his rivals bowed out that cycle, and as there probably isn't going to be any new information available to assess if there are any significant remaining pockets of resistance among the voters. If I do feel the need to make more updates, they will be on an ad-hoc basis.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: darthpi (D-PA) 2016-05-04 @ 23:17:15
I feel the need to add that I feel genuinely alarmed that the Republican party and Republican voters have made this decision. While I expect Trump to lose the general election in November, and possibly lose in a landslide, it is, ultimately, not a certainty. And that means it is possible that an anti-intellectual, a demagogue, a racist, a sexist, an egomaniac, a conspiracy theorist, and an individual with clear authoritarian tendencies may become the leader of the free world. I do not understand why you are putting our country through this. Last Edit: 2016-05-05 @ 01:24:27

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2022 Senate	32/35	25/35	57/70	81.4%	6	1	124	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	29/36	63/72	87.5%	6	1	11	T	272
2020 President	52/56	39/56	91/112	81.3%	18	6	359	T	684
2018 Senate	32/35	23/35	55/70	78.6%	26	1	67	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	23/36	55/72	76.4%	26	3	122	T	372
2016 President	51/56	33/56	84/112	75.0%	37	1	87	T	678
2014 Senate	34/36	26/36	60/72	83.3%	11	4	21	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	17/36	48/72	66.7%	6	3	73	T	300
2012 President	56/56	45/56	101/112	90.2%	30	1	77	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	7	1	40	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	45/52	19/52	64/104	61.5%	42	-	25	T	231
2010 Senate	35/37	30/37	65/74	87.8%	26	1	5		456
2010 Governor	34/37	27/37	61/74	82.4%	6	1	29	T	312
2008 President	52/56	44/56	96/112	85.7%	19	1	74	T	1,505
2008 Dem Primary	37/52	19/52	56/104	53.8%	15	-	58	T	271
Aggregate Predictions	589/649	421/649	1010/1298	77.8%

User Info

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