PredictionsMock2016 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions - darthpi (D-PA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-02-11 Version:12

Prediction Map
darthpi MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
darthpi MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Kasich0
 
Bush0
 
Rubio0
 
Cruz1
 
Trump3
 
Carson0
 
Other48
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Kasich0
 
Bush0
 
Rubio0
 
Cruz0
 
Trump1
 
Carson0
 
Other0
 
Tossup51
 

Analysis

Well, Marco Rubio got probably the worst result possible for his campaign in New Hampshire: a fifth-place finish behind Jeb Bush. Whatever momentum he had after Iowa has almost certainly been halted, and if anything his support has probably slightly declined. With Jeb still in the race, it is hard to see anyone other than Donald Trump or Ted Cruz winning South Carolina. If Rubio can hold on to third in South Carolina and force Jeb from the race then he probably still has a chance at a surprise win in Nevada and a difficult path to the nomination beyond that. If, however, Jeb finishes ahead of Rubio in South Carolina, or if Rubio fails to win Nevada, then I doubt Rubio will win a single state. As of now, Donald Trump still seems to be the most likely nominee, with Ted Cruz as the second most likely, but that could reverse if Cruz wins South Carolina. I don't know if Jeb has a viable path or not. If he got a surprise second-place finish in South Carolina then I suppose he might still have a very slim chance, but if he doesn't get that then he is probably done for (though he will probably stay in the race for now if he gets even a close fourth-place finish). I doubt Kasich has a path to the nomination either; he might do alright in Midwestern states like Ohio and Illinois if his campaign can last that long, but he is probably going to get crushed on Super Tuesday and may be out of the race very shortly thereafter.


Prediction History
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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 246
P 2022 Senate 32/35 25/35 57/70 81.4% pie 6 1 124T305
P 2022 Governor 34/36 29/36 63/72 87.5% pie 6 1 11T272
P 2020 President 52/56 39/56 91/112 81.3% pie 18 6 359T684
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 26 1 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 23/36 55/72 76.4% pie 26 3 122T372
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 37 1 87T678
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 11 4 21T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 6 3 73T300
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T312
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T271
Aggregate Predictions 589/649 421/649 1010/1298 77.8% pie



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