Date of Prediction: 2016-02-11 Version:12
Prediction Map Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
Analysis
Well, Marco Rubio got probably the worst result possible for his campaign in New Hampshire: a fifth-place finish behind Jeb Bush. Whatever momentum he had after Iowa has almost certainly been halted, and if anything his support has probably slightly declined. With Jeb still in the race, it is hard to see anyone other than Donald Trump or Ted Cruz winning South Carolina. If Rubio can hold on to third in South Carolina and force Jeb from the race then he probably still has a chance at a surprise win in Nevada and a difficult path to the nomination beyond that. If, however, Jeb finishes ahead of Rubio in South Carolina, or if Rubio fails to win Nevada, then I doubt Rubio will win a single state. As of now, Donald Trump still seems to be the most likely nominee, with Ted Cruz as the second most likely, but that could reverse if Cruz wins South Carolina. I don't know if Jeb has a viable path or not. If he got a surprise second-place finish in South Carolina then I suppose he might still have a very slim chance, but if he doesn't get that then he is probably done for (though he will probably stay in the race for now if he gets even a close fourth-place finish). I doubt Kasich has a path to the nomination either; he might do alright in Midwestern states like Ohio and Illinois if his campaign can last that long, but he is probably going to get crushed on Super Tuesday and may be out of the race very shortly thereafter.
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