Date of Prediction: 2010-10-31 Version:3
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 74)
Analysis
I have fixed PA and AK due to the tightness of the race there. While I could see Murkowski win this, the mechanics of a write-in vote make this difficult. I also feel that AR and WI are no longer tossups.
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Version: 2 This is version 2. As for WI, it seems the momentum is with the GOP. While Feingold is popular, I don't think it will be enough to save him. I also feel WV is getting tight as well. If Manchin loses, this will could solidify WV as a GOP state on the federal level. Version: 1 Overall I'm thinking the Senate will still be in Democratic hands, but with losses along the way. Here's the state by state play:
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