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Race to the Moon

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Prediction Map



* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		19 |	37 |	37 |
Dem	8
Rep	29
Ind	0
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 |	37 |	37 |
Dem	5
Rep	22
Ind	0
Tos	10
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-6	-5	-11	6	2	8	-11
Rep	+6	+5	+11	0	0	0	10	8	18	+11
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats Democratic 8 38 46 Republican 29 23 52 Independent 0 2 2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
48	31	17

Analysis

I predict that in addition to the House where the GOP is likely to pick up over 39 seats the GOP will pick 12 Senate seats. The voter intensity on the GOP side is stronger as compared to the Democrats. Lets take a look at the races.

California
Barbra Boxer vs Carly Fiorina
The liberal tax and spend policies of the California Democratic legislature and Governor Schwarzenegger is being rejected by Californians and Barbra Boxer is very unpopular. With Carlys business experience being a plus for her campaign I predict she wins this one.

Pennsylvania
Pat Toomey vs Joe Sestak
Pat Toomey is leading in the polls. Joe Sesak has some extreme views on social issues important to Pennsylvanians like abortion including support for partial birth abortion. Joe Sestak also supports the Obama agenda on spending and tax increases that hurt the economy. The fact that McCain won the 12th district in western Pennsylvania in 2008 a district that normally goes for Democrats shows that Toomey has a chance with angry Reagan Democrats. I predict Toomey will win this one.

Nevada
Sharron Angle vs Harry Reid vs Scott Ashjian
Even though she is being labled by liberal media outlets as an extremist Sharron Angle can win this one. Harry Reids approval ratings are low in Nevada. The Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian will not win but could hurt Angle. Sharron Angle must let people know that she doesn't support getting rid of Social Security and Medicare. She only supports protecting the funds for those programs from the tax and spend crowd in Washington. If she can do that I predict she will win this one.

Washington
Dino Rossi vs Patty Murray
Dino Rossi is popular in the state of Washington and almost won the Governors race in 2004. I predict Rossi will win this seat

Illinois
Mark Kirk vs Alexi Giannoulias vs LeAlan Jones vs Mike Labno
Both have made mistakes in this campaign but in the end Kirk can win this. Giannoulias has a huge scandal and I think he will lose because of it. The third party candidates Labno and Jones wont win but they could make this race interesting but in the end Kirk will win this seat.

Wisconsin
Ron Johnson vs Russ Feingold
With the healthcare law being unpopular in this state and Ron Johnson having a lot of campaign cash I think Feingold will lose. Ron Johnson also has business experience that being a plus for him. Johnson will win.

Colorado
Ken Buck vs Michael Bennet
Michael Bennet is way to liberal for Colorado. His vote on healthcare and support from Obama will cost him re-election. Ken Buck will win.

North Dakota
John Hoeven vs Tracy Potter
Hoeven is very Popular in North Dakota and won re-election in 2008 a big Democratic year by 74% of the vote. Hoeven will easily win this race.

Arkansas
John Boozman vs Blanche Lincoln
She is way too liberal for Arkansas. Her vote on healthcare and the Stimulus will cost her re-election. Boozman has a huge lead in the polls. Boozman will win.

Indiana
Dan Coats vs Brad Ellsworth
Without Evan Bayh running I predict a loss for the Democrats. Brad Ellsworth is too liberal for the State of Indiana. He voted for all of Obamas big government anti-middle class agenda. Coats is well known in the state of Indiana and is way ahead in the polls. Coats will win this one.

Connecticut
Linda MacMahon vs Richard Blumenthal
Richard Blumenthal has a lead in the polls and is popular but has also made mistakes in lying about his miltary service. Linda has more money than Blumenthal but that dont always lead to a victory examples being Perot in 1992 and Romney in the Republican primary of 2007-2008. At this time this race is a toss up. But I predict a win for Linda MacMahon.

Florida
Marco Rubio vs Charlie Crist vs Kendrick Meek
Charlie Crist has lost a large amount of popularity in florida and Crist is behind in the polls. Kendrick Meek is in third place in the polls and has no chance of winning. This race will go to Rubio.

Ohio
Rob Portman vs Lee Fisher
Under the administration Fisher served in over 400,000 jobs were lost. Portman has a great economic plan for Ohio. Portman is also ahead in the polls. I predict Portman will win.

Kentucky
Rand Paul vs Jack Conway
Even though the media has painted Paul as a right-wing nut-job I think paul will still win this one. In a year like this the majority of Kentuckians will not vote to elect a Democrat. Rand Paul will win.

Delaware(Special)
Christine ODonnell vs Chris Coons
Chris Coons is extremely liberal. Christine ODonnell may have financial problems but I dont think it will hurt her that bad. This race will be close. In the end Coons will unfortunately win.

Arizona
John McCain vs Rodney Glassman
John McCain after enduring an intense primary challange from J.D. Hayworth and Jim Deakin is doing good in the polls and is popular in Arizona. Hayworth would have won as well but with McCain its a definate win for the GOP.

Oregon
Ron Wyden vs Jim Huffman
Ron Wyden is way ahead in the polls and has attempted middle class tax cut legislation. I think this one will remain in democratic hands.

West Virginia(Special)
Joe Manchin vs John Raese
Joe Manchin is very popular in his state but he only has a small lead in the polls. This is a toss-up but since Joe Manchin has run away from Obama its looks like he will win.

Iowa
Charles E. Grassley vs Roxanne Conlin
Charles E. Grassley has a large lead in the polls in a very conservative state in an anti Obama year. Charles E. Grassley should easily win.

Idaho
Mike Crapo vs P. Tom Sullivan
Mike Crapo has a large lead in very conservative state. McCain won this state by 61%. Crapo should have no problem keeping his seat.

Louisiana
David Vitter vs Charlie Melancon
Even though he had an affair with a prostitute Vitter will still win. Charlie Melancon voted for Obamacare and will pay the political price in this state where McCain did better than Bush. Vitter will win.

Alabama
Richard C. Shelby vs William Barnes
Shelby has a massive lead in the polls in a very conservative state where McCain won 60 percent of the vote in 2008. Shelby will easily win.

Utah
Mike Lee vs Sam Granato
Utah is one of the most conservative states in the country going 62 percent for McCain in 2008. Mike lee will have no problem winning.

Georgia
Johnny Isakson vs Michael Thurmond vs Chuck Donovan
In a year like this I dont think Georgia will go for a Democrat. Isakson is ahead in the polls and the Libertarian candidate has is way behind in the polls and has no chance of winning. Johnny Isakson will win.

North Carolina
Richard M. Burr vs Elaine F. Marshall
North Carolina made the mistake of voting 50 percent for Obama in 2008. They wont vote for a Democrat this year. Richard Burr will win.

South Carolina
Jim Demint vs Alvin Greene
Alvin Greene has no chance of winning. Demint will easily win.

Missouri
Roy D. Blunt vs Robin Carnahan
This state was very close in 2008 in the primaries and general election. McCain and Obama each got 49% of the vote. McCain barely won. But the health care law is very unpopular in Missouri. Roy D. Blunt will win.

New Hampshire
Kelly Ayotte vs Paul Hodes
The polls are on Kelly Ayottes side. In a year like this its unlikely that Hodes will carry this state. Kelly Ayotte will win.

Maryland
Barbara A. Mikulski vs Eric Wargotz
Mikulski has a big lead in the polls in a Democratic state. Mikulski should win.

Oklahoma
Tom Coburn vs Jim Rogers
Oklahoma is a very Republican state voting for McCain 65%. Tom Coburn is way ahead in the polls. Coburn will definitely win.

Alaska
Joe Miller vs Lisa Murkowski vs Scott McAdams
Alaska is a very conservative state. Miller is ahead in the polls. Joe Miller will win.

New York(Special)
Kirsten Gillibrand vs Joe DioGuardi
Joe Diogardi doesnt have much money to compete with and is behind in the polls. But he seems to be cathing up to Gillibrand. In the end this race will go to Gillibrand.

New York
Charles E. Shumer vs Jay Townsend
Townsend is way behind in the polls. Shumer will easily win by over 60% of the vote.

Hawaii
Daniel K. Inouye vs Joh Roco
Without Linda Lingle the Republican governor of Hawaii running
The GOP doesnt have a shot at winning. Inouye is also way ahead in the polls as well. Inouye will definitely win by at least 60% of the vote.

Vermont
Patrick J. Leahy vs Len Britton
Patrick J. Leahy is way ahead in the polls and in a state where Obama won 67% of the vote. Leahy without Jim Douglas the Republican governor of Vermont running agains him should win easily by at least 60% of the vote.

South Dakota(Just for fun)
John Thune vs Unopposed
Thune is running unopposed. He will definitely win with almost 100% of the vote.

Prediction History

Comments History - show

Version History

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Member Comments

By: d-russ (R-OH) 2010-11-05 @ 19:58:57
Man was I way off. Hopefully the GOP will do better in 2012.

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-06 @ 00:27:01
We did pretty good in the Senate d-russ all things considered. Look at what we faced - we needed to collect 10 seats in a year when most races were occurring in very blue states. Yet we still managed to gain 6, over half way to the majority mark. Our big victories in the House and state governments show just what a massive wave there was on Tuesday. But many senate races were in tough states that we have historically not done well in. The fact that so many were competitive is impressive all on its own, we really had them on defense. 2012 and 2014 are going to be much better senatorial years for us because we will start to move back into more red and purple states that elected Democrats in 2006 and 2008. If the Democrats had to be on defense for their records in their own states just imagine how it could be back on more friendly territory. We've done well and of course 2012 will be all about the presidential race which will effect a lot of other contests as all.

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By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-14 @ 06:07:42
Yes, you were off, but some of the reasons you listed would have held had the wave been larger. Faulty polling, a little too much GOP hubris, 4 terrible candidates and forgetfulness on the part of the electorate about the nature of waves themselves was part of your problem. However, I miss by two, in spite of sticking completely with my stats and I missed 1 when I included gut feeling. 4 horseraces can go pretty much in any direction. Just a one percent shift in PA and IL and the GOP would not have picked up those seats. Just 0.5% shift in CO and Buck would have won after all. Murray was never really in danger. Anyone famliar with the "Soviet of Seattle" knows the real dynamics of WA. BTW, although I now live in Germany, I was born and raised in Ohio. Last Edit: 2010-11-14 @ 06:08:10

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-14 @ 14:25:24
I agree with most of that Bonn. Well put. I actually thought that this election was a lot of fun myself and enjoyed some of the surprises it brought.

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-18 @ 07:59:08
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/11/17/extra_bonus_quote_of_the_day.html

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