Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:61

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	9
Rep	28
Ind	0
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	9
Rep	28
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-5	-5	-10	7	2	9	-10
Rep	+5	+5	+10	0	0	0	10	8	18	+10
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	9	38	47
Republican	28	23	51
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
55	32	23

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 33

Finally! The GOP has gotten back to a majority. Rasumussen Polling is the basis for my map. Every state with a GOP lead, I give it to them. The numbers released include leaners. I think that Nevada can be picked up by Angle if she can convince voters she is mainstream.

Version: 8

Despite what current polls say in Florida, I still think Rubio will be able to win. Rubio is going to be one of the people, along with Sharon Angle, who gets boat loads of money from the GOP.

Version: 2

The race is on. I have used polling data to determine my winners. I formerly had Charlie Crist winning in Florida, but recent Rasmussen polling has put Republican Marco Rubio with an 8 point lead. Ohio is dead even, but Democrat Lee Portman holds a slight lead in the polls (1 point). Harry Reid is catching up in Nevada, but he still looks doomed. Colorado is closer than before, but Michael Bennett is still just too far behind. Illinois is the same way. Despite Bob Bennett being defeated in Utah, any Republican can win in that state. According to Rasmussen, Barbara Boxer has only a 1 point lead over GOP contender Tom Campbell, but there's almost no way a Democrat like her can lose in Cali.

Version: 1

I went along with most other predictions except in two states. At this moment, Ohio is about 1% more Democrat in the polls right now, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. In Florida, former Republican Chalie Crist is commanding more of the vote in polls than his other contenders, Rubio and Meek. Both are tossups, but by November, I'll probably have both those states for the Republicans.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2018 Senate	31/35	24/35	55/70	78.6%	3	0	67	T	483
2018 Governor	31/36	22/36	53/72	73.6%	2	2	164	T	372
2016 President	53/56	37/56	90/112	80.4%	3	1	10	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	22/34	52/68	76.5%	3	1	35	T	362
2016 Governor	11/12	7/12	18/24	75.0%	2	1	3	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	26/36	61/72	84.7%	5	0	13	T	382
2014 Governor	33/36	20/36	53/72	73.6%	3	0	9	T	300
2012 President	52/56	30/56	82/112	73.2%	8	19	654	T	760
2012 Senate	28/33	12/33	40/66	60.6%	3	4	252	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	6/11	15/22	68.2%	1	48	131	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	34/52	9/52	43/104	41.3%	3	-	102	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	1	88	37	T	106
2010 Senate	32/37	23/37	55/74	74.3%	61	0	133	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	25/37	59/74	79.7%	45	0	59	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	417/475	264/475	681/950	71.7%