PredictionsNewsEndorse2010 Senatorial Predictions - bonncaruso (D-DEU) ResultsForumPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Advertisements

History Posters!
History of the Parties


Election and History Posters from History Shots!

Note: click will open in new window if pop-ups allowed


Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:11

Prediction Map
bonncaruso Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
bonncaruso Map


Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep26
 
Ind0
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem10
 
pie
Rep23
 
Ind0
 
Tos4
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-4-4-88311-8
Rep+4+4+800010818+8
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic113849
Republican262349
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
543420
piepiepie

Analysis

2010 Midterm Elections – FINAL Senate Prediction(Bonncaruso)

I am going to keep this analysis short and very direct.

SENATE: (statistics only) D51 / R49
SENATE: (with gut feeling) D52 / R48

In the first comment on this map are two tables I have created. The first one shows the trend shift between my last map and 10/29 (2 weeks). The second table shows the trend shift over the last 5 days, from 10/29 to today. The commentary to those tables is very enlightening.

Any polls that may come in today are NOT in my calculations. Frankly, any last minute hoping over a +/-0.01 variance is not going to change anything, even in the three closest races.

We knew all along that this would be a republican year, and indeed it will be, and it will be a big year for the GOP. And, in accordance with my promise to be fair and impartial, I am now reporting that the GOP wave will be the biggest I have seen in my lifetime, if the statistics hold.

It has also been a year for some very dishonest and misleading polling - of this I am 100% sure. And after the results are finalized, I will be doing, as I indicated on the thread to my last map, a major statistical analysis comparing the pollsters figures and the actual results, both for 2008 and 2010. First came the R2000 scandal, which dismayed me greatly. Then we have the fact that one pollster, RASMUSSEN, literally covered 1/3 of all polling in this year, which has caused an undeniable "house-effect" skew. Whether a pollster drives the narrative or whether the media frenzy drives this all is, however, unimportant at this time.

Nonetheless, it is going to be a massive republican blowout, and let me tell you why:

1.) Although I am no huge fan of generic ballot statistics, when Gallup, of all pollsters, shows the GOP going into election day with a +15 lead, 55-40, then you know that the wave has become a tsunami of unprecedented proportions for the GOP. If it were only Gallup to show the GOP with a double digit lead over the democrats, that would be one thing. But of the seven most recent generic matchups, the GOP is in double digits in four of them: Gallup (+15), Rasmussen (+12), CNN (+10) and FOX (+13). I think we can say with fairness here that two of these pollsters have been more favorable to the republicans in the past and two of them have been more favorable to the democrats in the past. When these four agree with each other this much, then you know that something is afoot. Even in years where republicans have done very, very well, the parity was usually 0 or maybe 1% for the democrats. With a double digit lead for the GOP looking very, very likely, then the wave is sure to function according to the following principle:

"A rising tide lifts all boats".

2.) OHIO. Ohio is without a doubt the quintessential battleground state and was considered a real DEM pick-up opportunity. I also hitched OHIO onto my predictions the entire time and I stick with this technique. Fisher has given up in OHIO, Portman will be the next Senator from the Buckeye state and the current margin mean is a BLOWOUT +18.30% - 3.30% above the Gallup final generic figure, which is about right. Assuming the nominal 3 point lead for a seat where the current senator is a republican, this figure matches what we are seeing coming out of the generic polling. Also, FLORIDA, which is showing GOP +15.75 (yes, I know, a three man race, but...) makes yet another state in the trifecta that is moving boldly red. Which causes me to think that Toomey will win bigger in PA than the stats say, as PA is the third state in the Trifecta.

3.) RARE JAZZ CONGRESS is now projecting 81 GOP and 7 DEM pick-ups in the house, making for a net shift of 74 seats in the House of Representatives, also indicating an almost mirror image of the current power structure in the house.

Therefore, for the Senate, I have decided to stick 100% with the end statistics and those end statistics show 8 GOP pick-ups, in descending order of probable margin: ND, AR, IN, WI, PA, NV, IL, CO.

The democrats will maintain a razor-thin majority in the senate.

Of the remaining seats in question: we have seen the DEMS pull away in CA - Boxer is holding at a +6.0 mean, outside the battleground zone, and Brown will landslide in the gubernatorial - and this in spite of a massive GOP wave going on in most of the rest of the Union. Both DEM seats in NY and the seats in VT, OR and HI were never in play; the seat in DE and the seat in CT are both safe. Even if the GOP wave were to crest to +20 (generically speaking) today, those seats will still be DEM seats.

WV is moving demonstrably to Manchin. Even Rasmussen has Manchin over 50% now. It will be a lean win, but Manchin will be the next senator from WV.

Remaining is WA (Murray vs. Rossi). It has been close the entire time. However, of the 22 polls since Labor Day, Murray has lead in 15, one was a tie, and Rossi has lead in 6: 4 of them were RAS polls, one was Fabrizio (R) and interestingly enough, by 2 points in the last PPP. But even more fascinating is that the FOX poll shows Murray in the lead by 2 points. Complicating all of this is that fact that 30% of all WA ballots have already been turned in. In King County, it is by 38%. In Pierce County, it is 43%. Since those ballots from overwhelmingly democratic counties have already come in before the polls in WA tightened again, the statistical probability is very high that Murray narrowly retains her seat. And there are certain pollsters who know the region best. Elway knows WA better than any other pollster, just as Selzer knows IA, IL and IN better than the rest. Murray's internals show her up by 8, which would concur with stats showing her sweeping King County 58-42. I would say that enough of the vote is locked in to ensure a lean victory, much as was the case in FLORIDA in the 2008 GE.

Finally: Alaska. Folks, there is just not enough empiric data to make even an informed guess. What we do know about Alaska is that it is usually a very, very strong GOP state where GOP candidates also chip off a good percentage of the democratic vote. I think it would take a miracle for MacAdams (D) to surge through the center and take the election. The probability is much higher that Murkowski or Miller wins.

So, in this election we will see two curses broken: the North Carolina curse and the curse of both houses of congress flipping when the house of representatives is bound to flip.

The stats say that the GOP will pick-up 8 seats. I think the real zone is between 7 and 9. Yes, the GOP could eek out a win in WA, or on the flip side, there is also the statistical probability that it will not be able to flip all three of those narrow, narrow states: NV, CO, IL. But like I said, I have decided to stick 100% with statistics pure on this one and let the chips fall where they fall. Note that Nate Silver says likewise. He predicts a 52-48 senate, but his map shows a 51-49 senate.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-02 @ 07:40:11 prediction Map

On 10/29, I posted a trend-table reflecting the changes in polling averages for key senate seats between 10/14 and 10/29. Since RCP and pollster.com use slightly differing methodologies, I have taken the mean value (average) of those two and compared them.




Here is how things looked on 10/29:
























State RCP 10/14 P.COM 10/14 Mean RCP 10/29 P.COM 10/29 Mean Diff Trend

NV


D +0.5


D +0.2


D +0.35


R +4.0


R +3.0


R +3.50


R +3.85


GOP


IL


D +0.5


R +0.7


R +0.10


R +2.8


R +1.2


R +2.00


R +1.80


GOP


WV

+/- 0.0

D +0.8


D +0.40


D +4.8


D +1.7


D +3.25


D +2.85


DEM


CO


R +3.0


R +3.9


R +3.45


R +1.6


R +1.2


R +1.40


R -2.05


DEM


WA


D +4.0


D +3.2


D +3.6


D +1.6


D +0.9


D +1.25


D -2.35


GOP





























CA


D +3.7


D +4.4


D +4.05


D +6.5


D +4.5


D +5.50


D +1.45


DEM


KY


R +5.3


R +7.1


R +6.20


R +9.8


R +7.0


R +8.40


R +2.20


GOP


PA


R +7.5


R +6.2


R +6.85


R +4.0


R +3.1


R +3.55


R -3.30


DEM


WI


R +7.3


R +7.8


R +7.55


R +6.6


R +8.0


R +7.30


R -0.25

-static-

MO


R +9.4


R +9.2


R +9.3


R +10.4


R +7.6


R +9.00


R -0.30

-static-

CT


--


--


--


D +11.0


D +9.8


D +10.40


--


---


NC


R +15.7


R +13.1


R +14.40


R +11.8


R +13.8


R +12.80


R -1.60


DEM


OH


R +15.2


R +15.1


R +15.15


R +17.8


R +16.0


R +16.90


R +1.75


GOP


FL


R +16.2


R +14.1


R +15.15


R +13.3


R +13.7


R +13.50


R -1.65


IND


DE


D +18.3


D +19.1


D +18.70


D +15.8


D +14.4


D +15.10


D -3.60


GOP









And now, here is how things have changed from 10/29 to 11/02. I have adjusted the table to go in ascending order of mean value for 11/02, meaning from the statistically narrowest race (WA) to the widest blowout of the states analyzed (OH). A trend in BOLD means a shift in trend from one party to the other in the last 5 days. Note: A trend does not guarantee a win for the team that is trending. A trend is always in context of the margin itself. For instance, in DE, the mean is trending +1.10 in the direction of the GOP, but Coons is still stomping O'Donnell by a (perfectly synchronized, I might add) a +14.00 mean.





First, take a look at the numbers.

























State RCP 10/29 P.COM 10/29 Mean RCP 11/02 P.COM 11/02 Mean Diff Trend

WA


D +1.6


D +0.9


D +1.25


D +0.3


D +0.7


D +0.50


-0.75


GOP


CO


R +1.6


R +1.2


R +1.40


R +3.0


R +1.6


R +2.40


+1.00


GOP


IL


R +2.8


R +1.2


R +2.00


R +3.3


R +1.7


R +2.50


+0.50


GOP


NV


R +4.0


R +3.0


R +3.50


R +2.7


R +3.0


R +2.85


-0.65


DEM


WV


D +4.8


D +1.7


D +3.25


D +4.5


D +3.0


D +3.75


+0.50


DEM


PA


R +4.0


R +3.1


R +3.55


R +4.5


R +4.0


R +4.25


+0.70


GOP


--


------


------


---


---


---


---


---


---


CA


D +6.5


D +4.5


D +5.00


D +6.5


D +6.0


D +5.75


+0.75


DEM


CT


D +11.0


D +9.8


D +10.40


D +8.7


D +6.3


D +7.50


-2.90


GOP


WI


R +6.6


R +8.0


R +7.30


R +7.7


R +7.8


R +7.75


+0.45


GOP


KY


R +9.8


R +7.0


R +8.40


R +11.0


R +8.4


R +9.70


+1.30


GOP


MO


R +10.4


R +7.6


R +9.00


R +10.4


R +9.2


R +9.90


+0.90


GOP


NC


R +11.8


R +13.8


R +12.80


R +12.8


R +12.5


R +12.65


-0.15


-static-


DE


D +15.8


D +14.4


D +15.10


D +14.0


D +14.0


D +14.00


-1.10


GOP


FL


R +13.3


R +13.7


R +13.50


R +17.0


R +14.5


R +15.75


+2.25


GOP


OH


R +17.8


R +16.0


R +16.90


R +18.8


R +17.8


R +18.30


+1.40


GOP









On paper, WA no appears to be the closest race out there, and indeed on election night, this could be so. But we may not know for up to 3 weeks. Earlyvoting.net has an outstanding small write-up on this:





I have been communicating with friends and colleagues in Washington about how quickly ballots arrive and are counted in the state.   The figures are fascinating, and if it is true that the Washington race may end up being crucial in determining control of the Senate, then the national media has better be prepared to wait for results.

Past history has been that 10% of WA voters return their vote by mail ballots immediately upon receipt. 30-40% of the ballots are returned by the Friday before the election (as of today, 38% of the ballots have been processed), and by Monday, approximately 50% of ballots will have been cast.
The remaining 50% come in Tuesday through Friday. And because Washington is a big military state, UOCAVA ballots arrive for weeks.
The 8pm returns from Washington will be meaningless.  Firm conclusions about the Washington Senate race will not be possible until Wednesday or Thursday at the earliest.  And it's quite possible that we'll have to wait the full 21 days until Washington certifies its results.“

In reality, however, CO may be the closest race going on. Not only that, CO is expected to have 70% voter turnout in this year, bursting all records from the past for mid-term elections. The GOTV in CO will make all the difference in the world.

What the table does confirm is the GOP wave making a roughly 1.20% expanse on the average across the board going into the finish. Look at OH, KY, MO, CO, for instance.

Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 08:17:34

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-11-02 @ 09:30:33 prediction Map
Our maps basically agree, with the exception of Miller winning Alaska.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-02 @ 10:15:50 prediction Map
I have simply avoided making a distinction between IND and GOP in this case, for if Murkowski is elected, she will be a republican, and if Miller is elected, he will be a republican. So, in this case I said to myself, "ah, bag it....".


:) :) :)

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-11-02 @ 11:15:22 prediction Map
Bonn, you need to make the distinction. Alaska is going to be for bonus points.

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-11-02 @ 11:15:44 prediction Map
I'm not staying up to find out.

 By: colin (R-ON) 2010-11-02 @ 11:23:46 prediction Map
Bonn, as always, I appreciate your impartiality and statistical arguments and facts!

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-02 @ 18:32:53 prediction Map
Hi Bush, this time I am not in it for points. But I must admit that the statistical work has helped me greatly through a very trying time (divorce) in my life.

Colin, good to "see" you here!

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-02 @ 19:00:35 prediction Map
the first wave:

KENTUCKY ELECTION RESULTS.

Watch KY-03, KY-06. If Yarmuth is getting pasted in KY-03, then it is going to be the night of long knives for the DEMS. Chandler in KY-06 was supposed to be safe, is no more.

UPDATE 19:40: right now, both Yarmuth and Chandler are leading in their respective districts.

UPDATE 21:05: KY-03 called for Yarmuth. This is a sign that the GOP will probably not pick up more than 50 seats.

UPDATE 22:08: It looks like KY-06 will stay in democratic hands, that Chandler will eek out a re-election win. So, in a state with a huge win for a tea party candidate, the democratic congressional delegation will stay as it was. Interesting.

INDIANA House of Representatives election results.

Keep your eyes on IN-02, IN-07, IN-08, IN-09.
The GOP must and should pick up IN-08 to get to at least 40 pickups. IN-09 could be dicier than you think. Baron Hill (D) has already won in a number of firefights, but surely the GOP has made a major play for this seat. IN-02 (Donelly) would be a longshot for the GOP. If Donnelly loses, then the night of long knives for the DEMS continues. And IN-07 is being used as a basis CD: Carson (D) should be very safe here and should win by up to 20 points. If he is only winning in single digits, then the GOP will sweep the Hoosier state.

update: the DEMS will hold IN-02, but loses IN-09 (Hill) and IN-08. IN-07 is a DEM hold and Carson wins with a huge landslide and came within Nate Silver's polling estimates.

NOTE: CNN has already called the race for Rand Paul and Dan Coats.

UPDATE 00:25 GMT+1: all three CDs in IN look bad for the democrats. IN-02 looks now like a likely GOP pick up. Nate Silver has this CD in the column indicating that a GOP pick-up here means that the GOP picks up at least 60 seats nationwide.

Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 22:09:07

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-02 @ 19:05:41 prediction Map
The second wave:

VIRGINIA Election results.

Looking at VA-02, VA-05, VA-09, VA-11

UPDATE 19:30 EST: VA-05 is looking bad for Periello.
UPDATE 20:10 EST: All four CDs in question: the GOP is currently leading in all 4. But VA-11 is at only about 6% in.
UPDATE 20:44 EDT: CNN calls VA-09 for the GOP (pick-up)
UPDATE 20:51 EDT: CNN calls VA-05 for the GOP (pick-up)
UPDATE 21:25 EDT: VA-02 is also a GOP pick-up.
Only VA-11 hangs in the balance (Conelly)


OHIO election results.

To watch: OH-01, OH-06, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18

OH-01 and OH-15 are expected to flip. The rest depends on the severity of the wave, but seeing an estimated Portman (R) margin of up to 18%, I expect that the GOP picks up 4 districts in OH.

UPDATE 21:52: in Ohio, the DEMS are losing big in OH-01 (this was expected, Driehaus will be defeated), but also in OH-18 (Zack Space took this CD after the NYE scandal in 2006 - but the counting is lagging in OH-18, it is a rural district and spread out pretty wide). They are also losing in OH-15 and OH-06, but currently by a smaller margin. Boccieri is holding his ownin OH-16, he may just pull it out. So indeed the GOP may pick up 4 seats in OHIO. And will lose one of them after redistricting in 2011.

HOWEVER: in OH-12, the DEM is leading GOP incumbent Tiberi.

CNN immediately called OH-SEN for Portman at 19:30.

Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 21:26:03

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-02 @ 19:59:06 prediction Map
The third wave:

PENNSYLVANIA election results

To look for:

PA-02, PA-07, PA-08, PA-11 / PA-04, PA-12

FLORIDA election results

Too many things to watch in FL, but FL-25 is a potential DEM pick-up.

UPDATE 21:21 EDT: the GOP picks up FL-24.
UPDATE 21:44 EDT: the GOP picks up FL-08 (Grayson loses).

WEST VIRGINIA election results.

UPDATE 21:39 EDT: CNN calls the WV-SEN race for Manchin (D).

DELAWARE election results.

UPDATE 21:18 EST: first DEM CD pick up: DE-AL. (Carney)

MICHIGAN election results

Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 20:45:36

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-02 @ 20:17:22 prediction Map
TEXAS election results.

CONNECTICUT election results.

21:30: CT-SEN called for Blumenthal, as expected.



Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 20:34:40

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-02 @ 21:10:01 prediction Map
NEW HAMPSHIRE update: quite possibly both CD's will be GOP pickups. Yup, the night of long knives has begun.

Rand Paul is on TV and telling me that he has come to take our country back. How charming of him. Where does he plan to take it?

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 21:14:27 prediction Map
He also mentioned that were were 'enslaved' by debt.

...lovely!

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-02 @ 21:18:08 prediction Map
21:17: CNN calls the House of Representatives for the GOP.

Sigh.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-02 @ 21:20:29 prediction Map
21:19: with 45% of ballots counted, Manchin is holding on to a +10% lead in WV. If this continues, then it will be a landslide for him.

UPDATE 22:02: Manchin is still leading by 10%, with 80% of all precincts in. He will definitely exceed the polling in this state. Rasmussen has egg on his face about this one.

I also noticed that CNN exit polling had Bennet ahead in CO.

And Sestak is doing better in PA than I thought. Hmmmm...

And with most of votes in DE already counted, Coons has a +16.2% margin over the witch. So, he is exceeding the end polling results.

Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 22:04:18

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-02 @ 21:48:53 prediction Map
Hmmmmmmmmmmm, continued.

With 44% of ballots counted, Giannoulias is leading by 10%. 65% of Chicago precincts are in. I think that Ciannoulias is outperforming.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-02 @ 22:25:05 prediction Map
PENNSYLVANIA alert: with 73% reporting, Sestak is leading by +3.6 points. However, 92% of Philly has reported in, 98% of Pittsburg. However, Allentown and Berks county, plus Delaware County have a lot of votes to count.

It appears to me very obviously that the polling was off in PA, just as I suspected. This race could very well come down to a recount once all the overseas ballots are in.

House districts:

the GOP takes PA-03 (Dahlkemper, as expected) and will probably take PA-08 (Murphy) and PA-07. However, Critz is still ahead in PA-12 and Altmire is still ahead in PA-04. I believe that the Sestak coattails are keeping the GOP gains in the House seats in PA down.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-02 @ 22:44:16 prediction Map
So, it is going on 4am here in Germany, I must sleep some.

But already the two surprises are the closeness of the race in PA and the landslide that Johnson is winning in WI.

Fascinating.

Will post more when I wake up :) :)

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 22:46:36 prediction Map
Good night Bonn!

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-03 @ 03:13:27 prediction Map
So, I wake up and see with great joy that I was wrong on NV and will most likely be wrong on CO, making it D53-R47. Congrats, Miles! I think you hit it on the head.

As for AK, as I wrote, I could not care whether green or GOP, Murkowski will vote as a republican.

Yep, this stuff is going to prove fascinating in my polling-vs.-actual results study!

I also caught O'Donnell's "concession" speech, where she did not even have enough decency to congratulate Coons nor did she name him. She simply called him "my opponent". Wow, such lack of class. You see, Christine, Delawareans know trash when they see it, which is why they trashed you.

Last Edit: 2010-11-03 @ 03:15:01

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 03:21:35 prediction Map
Thanks Bonn!!!

Buck leads Bennet by 406 votes....but Bennet has been closing the gap. I've heard they're still waiting on some returns from Boulder county which should help Bennet.

Bennet is actually winning independents by 2 points.

This is very interesting.

I think Bennet will be the AL Franken of 2010!

Last Edit: 2010-11-03 @ 03:35:26

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 03:22:11 prediction Map
My favorite concession speech was Angle's...

she bragged that 80% of her money was from out of state!!!!

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 03:23:09 prediction Map
Looks like we're not going to know about Washington for a while.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-03 @ 03:41:54 prediction Map
Inouye won re-election in HI with an almost 55% margin. I think RAS wins the worst poll of the world award for it's bogus shit poll claiming that the GOP was just 11 points behind. What utter nonsense. Wow. Talk about propaganda. It appears that RAS was off in every single state that a DEM won. Fascinating. Don't say I didn't tell you first...

And the chances are that Inouye's percentage may actually rise when all the ballots are in.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-03 @ 04:33:24 prediction Map
And BTW, before I go to work (I have a 14 hour day ahead of me):

CA:

Boxer current winning margin: +7.2
based on what is still out, I think she will go over 8%.

Brown current winning margin: landslide +9.9. Ditto for Brown, I bet he will hit 11% when the party finally closes.

Miles, both Nate Silver and I agree with you: it looks like Bennet will win this one. There are enough votes in the deep democratic bastions left to count in order to offset the republican areas, for the largest GOP bastion, Colorado Springs, is 95% is. The big question mark is, of course, the military ballot, which will likely be offset by the overseas coloradans living in Europe ballot....

Jerry Moran hit 70.3% in Kansas. I bet very few of us put the GOP at 70% in Bob Dole's state...

Inouye is holding a +53.3% margin, 2% out. :) :) Rasmussen is going to have some explaining to do.

NY margins:

Schumer +32.6
Gillibrand +25.8
Cuomo +27.5 (don't forget your bat :) :) )

Nevada:

Reid +5.65
End polling averages: Angle +2.85
Difference: Reid +8.50
Gee, the polls were only about 9 points off in NV. Let's guess which demographic group was inaccurately weighted....

hmmmm....

tick
tock
tick
tock

THE HISPANIC POPULATION. (I am sure the fence ad just really helped alot, Sharron)

Connecticut:

Blumenthal currently at a landslide +10.2, 90% reporting, tendency: rising.

It looks like Grijalva and Giffords in AZ-07, AZ-08 will hang on to their seats, but it was indeed close.

Will write again tonight. What an election night that was, folks.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-03 @ 09:31:05 prediction Map
Quick log in during the break:

Boxer has moved into landslide territory:

Boxer: 52.2%
Fiorina: 42.4%
current margin: Boxer +9.8%

The race, at the end of the day, wasn't even close.

 By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2010-11-03 @ 13:17:10 prediction Map
Bonn - you are an inspiration staying up until 4 - I stayed up until 2am - just long enough for CNN to call the HoR for the GOP...

Why have the polls changed so quickly for the Dems in the CT governors race?

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 18:57:51 prediction Map
Now lets take out the trash!

Lets have a look at the lies of the Republican hack Scott Rasmussen.




Chart Key

-A state highlighted in yellow means that Rasmussen predicted the wrong winner.

-The House Effects highlighted in gray are outside of the 4.5% margin of error.

Senate



Gubernatorial




Last Edit: 2010-11-03 @ 19:58:30

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-03 @ 19:20:53 prediction Map
Impressive table, thanks for posting it.

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-04 @ 00:59:35 prediction Map
Bonn thanks for all the write ups. Good analysis once again and as always I've enjoyed your canard and professionalism.

I was a bit disappointed with our senate victories but the wins in the House and at the state level more than made up for it. Given were we just came from, 53-47 isn't bad at all. I also agree with you, Lisa will caucus with the GOP (she has publicly said so) and thus its a hold in Alaska.

I look forward to your final write up and don't feel too bad, I too stayed up till 4am :D

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-04 @ 05:12:49 prediction Map
Hi Conserv, great to hear from you, as always. It always pleases me greatly to read your input and I am sorry I have not posted much on your thread, but I am simply swamped with work at this time. I just couldn't stay up any longer, I had 2 5-hour shifts on Wednesday and my daughter with with me in the afternoon. Wednesday was a bleary eyed day for me. Thank you, Lord, for coffee.

You will notice that I stuck completely with the stats coming up with 51-49, although I actually predicted 52-48 from the gut (CO, I thought, would narrowly go for Bennet). The Reid win, which I had been plugging for months, indeed did surprise me. But actually, it was not a surprise. It was without a doubt flawed polling data that pollsters made based on the assumption of a depressed hispanic voter turnout, when in reality, the hispanic turnout for Reid in 2010 was better than for Obama in 2008. But I also warned many times here that the hispanic factor was not being correctly calculated. Hmmmmm.....think I should take up the profession as a prophet? Think that people should believe me when I say that hispanic turnout in 2012 will absolutely go through the roof?

I also note that Reid won not by running from Obama, but rather, by running right toward him. He did not apologize for any of the policy achievements of the last 2 years: he trumpeted them, loud and clear. He did not try to sway the lsd-like tea partiers; he went for his base, and hard at that. He played hard-knuckle politics, just the way a guy should in hard times. Not one time did he lie about Angle, but he did effectively use her words against her. And God knows she gave him enough chances to do this. And in doing so, Reid convinced enough GOP politicos in the silver state that regardless of their wish for a majority in the Senate, Angle as a Senator was a truly bad idea. Reid ran without a shadow of a doubt the best campaign of the year. He never let up, he always fought back, his first response team was even faster than Bill Clinton's from the 90s and he simply fought like a dog for every single vote. Angle, on the other hand, stuck her foot in her mouth at every turn, refused to talk to the press, refused to clear up truly controversial statements from the past and I am sure that enough voters saw through this. So, in a state with 14% unemployment and foreclosures without end, the voters stuck with the devil they knew instead of taking the devil they did not know. No religious intentions were made with that statement, btw.

My take: I am sure the GOP regrets the nominations of O'Donnell, Buck, Angle and Miller, four of the five absolute tea party favorites. I am sure it also regrets the nomination of Paladino and Maes in the gubernatorial.

On the DEM side, I am also very sure that one day will we get down to the truth about Alvin Greene in SC. This is bound to become a fascinating story. Please also notice that the green party candidate in SC took 9.4% of the vote, something that has never before happened in SC history. Certainly these are mostly DEMS who just couldn't vote for Greene (I would not have voted for him were I a SC resident, he was never qualified to be a Senator)and voted Green Party instead out of protest.

In the bluegrass state, Jack Conway did a major Hail Mary with the aqua buddha thing and failed, but I respect him for having the balls to do it. I am extremely hacked off at other dems for having shown dismay, for Conway's attacks on Paul pale in comparison to some of the stunts the GOP has pulled in the past, i.e. 2002 Cleland-Chambliss, 1988 Bush 41 "Willy Horton", etc.... but alas, this is not a democratic year and KY would be a state where I would not have expected a democratic win. In appraising the newly forming electoral map for the 21st century, I do not think we can think of KY as a swing state as we once did.

And Rand Paul has already made it very clear that he does not feel beholden to the GOP, although the GOP financed his senate bid. I sense very strongly that Paul may become a thorn in the side of the GOP, but perhaps this could actually help your party in the long run. Paul is not stupid, he just holds views I disagree with, and unlike his saying that Obama is "unamerican", I do not think that Paul is unamerican. But he is a little whacky. I strongly suspect that Paul will have a hard re-election campaign in 2016.

And I do not think we have seen the last of Jack Conway. KY politicians tend to try for a second or third round. I have already said that he is good DEM VP material. Wait and see.

The other two surprises for me were PA and IL. I expected Toomey to win bigger than this, and one election evening his win looks alot like a reverse image of Kerry's win in PA in 2004.

The other surprise was IL: not because Kirk won, and polls were showing a win for him, but because his win is showing a volatility or a flexibility in the midwest that I did not expect. Rather, this is the second time in two cycles where a midwestern state has narrowly flipped: IN for Obama in 2008 and now IL for Kirk. And apparently my belief in the very strong DEM maching in IL did not hold out. (BC now goes to get a towel and wipe some egg off his face). Tja, someday you get the bear, someday he gets you.

I talked with my sister in Ohio yesterday about the election. She is a republican who voted for Obama in 2008, but she voted straight party line GOP this year, not because of Obama, but because of the increase in Ohio state and local taxes, or at least, what she thought were tax increases. That turned her off to Strickland. We laughed as I voted (mostly) straight party line DEM on my Ohio ballot (I will tell you a secret: I voted for a libertarian for the first time in my life for one office, he was even endorsed by the liberal looking Cleveland Plain Dealer) and noted that our ballots therefore cancelled each other out. But then I reminded her that that is exactly the point: that every citizen has the right (and imo, the obligation) to make his/her voice heard at the ballot box. Interestingly enough (and I have researched this), OH taxes only went up very slightly, but local taxes in the Montgomery County area went up...

No doubt the three luckiest guys of the election were Chris Coons, Harry Reed and Michael Bennet. And the luckiest ladies may end up being Patty Murray and Lisa Murkowski.

On FL: Crist failed, Meek stuck to his principles, and apparently a number of DEMS were also willing to give Rubio a try. But now that he will be Senator from FL, the hispanic community will be watching him like a hawk during the upcoming immigration debate. Rubio has the possibility of becoming a national figure within the next eight years, or of crashing and burning.

And my parting thought for all of you, but especially for you, CR, is to notice how unbelievably quiet some of the GOP senators who were NOT on the ballot in 2010 were, most notably long time senators Dick Lugar and Orrin Hatch. Their silence speaks volumes.

With more than 60 freshman representatives coming in, the chances for a DEM wave election in 2012 just went up. We may see the fourth wave election in a row, a sure sign of a divided nation.

Last Edit: 2010-11-04 @ 06:09:53

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-04 @ 05:26:30 prediction Map
As the counting in WASHINGTON STATE continues, Patty Murray has increased her lead over Dino Rossi. Currently, as of 04 Nov 2010, 04:30 EDT:

Murray 50.84%
Rossi 49.16%
Margin: Murray +1.68%

This was expected as returns from King county have yet to come in, and she is heavily favored there.

Specifically, 71% of the vote is in, but most of the extremely red counties east of the Cascade mountains have reported more than the largest counties in the state. Here a good sampling:

Small red counties:
Lincoln County (deep red) 83% - 4,200 votes total
Columbia County (deep red) 75% - 2,000 votes total
Pend Oreill County (deep deep red) 92% - roughly 5,000 votes total.
Asotin County (deep red) 76% , 6,500 votes
Kittitas County (red) 85% - 12,500 votes
Kliktikat County (moderate red) 86% - 7,300 votes


larger RED counties:

there are other very small red counties with less then 71% of the votes counted, but they are very small counties. The exception is Benton County, with 40,000 cast. In Benton county, only 63% of the vote has been counted and Rossi is landsliding here with +29%.

Grant county (deep red): 79% - 20,000 votes total

the largest counties in WA:

Pierce County (tossup, red tilt) 93% - the second largest county in WA. Pierce county is where Murray is underperforming vis-a-vis Obama in 2008. Obama won Pierce county with +12. Currently 210,000 votes cast. Rossi is ahead here by 0.5%. But his lead is so narrow and there is only 7% of the county left to count. If this trend will continue to the end, then Rossi only adds 95 votes to his margin in this county. This will barely make a dent in Murray's votes still expected to come out of King county.

Snohomish County (moderate blue) 67% - third largest county. Murray is also underperforming here vis-a-vis Obama in 2008. She is winning with 51.5%, a +3 margin. Obama won here with 58%, a +18% margin. Currently 151,669 votes counted. But if she at least maintains here to the end, then she adds another 2,283 votes to her margin in Snohomish county, which will wipe out Rossi's edge in Clark county.

Clark County (moderate red) 85%, fourth largest county. Currently, 117,000 votes cast, Rossi is winning by +7.0. Obama won here by +6. If the trend continues to the end, then Rossi increases his margin in this county by 1,300 votes, a little more than half of Murray's expected margin gain (votewise) in Snohomish county.

King County (Seattle) 62% - the largest county in WA; more than 25% of the entire state vote will come from this county.

Murray is landsliding here with +25.2%, 62.6% to 37.4%. Till now, 418,937 votes have been counted in King county. 418,937 is 62% of 675,705. If Murray maintains this percentage and margin, then King county would look like this when all the votes are cast:

Murray 422,991
Rossi 252,714
Vote margin: 170,277

current (actual) vote margin in King County:

Murray +105,664

So, if conditions stay absolutely the same in King County, then Murray will add another 64,613 votes to her total. Obviously, Murray is currently also underperforming here. Obama won King county with almost 70%, a +42% margin over McCain. Those 64,000+ votes to pad her margin will more than wipe out any gains that Rossi will still get east of the Cascades.

I could extrapolate every county, but this would be quatsch. Without knowing exactly which precincts are out and their tendencies, it would be a shot in the dark. The big point is that a lot of King county is still out, and that will more than make up for the difference in red counties with votes yet to come in.


She may go as high as +2.5 at the end of the day. Wait and see.

Last Edit: 2010-11-05 @ 05:31:11

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-04 @ 07:47:20 prediction Map
Oh, and btw, looking at this class of roughly 60 new republican freshman, I see a number of names where the "scandal alert" bell in my head goes off.

Like Riviera in FL-25.

The next two years are going to be fascinating.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-04 @ 08:25:05 prediction Map
So, speak to the issue and it appears the very next hour:

Nate Silver: Did the polls underestimate the latino vote?

Quote:

"There is another theory, however, which was proposed to me last night by Matt Barreto of the polling firm Latino Decisions.

“There is one overarching reason why the polls were wrong in Nevada,” Mr. Barreto wrote in an e-mail to FiveThirtyEight. “The Latino vote.”

His firm, which conducts interviews in both English and Spanish, had found that Latino voters — somewhat against the conventional wisdom — were relatively engaged by this election and for the most part were going to vote Democratic. Mr. Barreto also found that Latino voters who prefer to speak Spanish — about 40 percent of Latino voters in California meet this description, he told me — are particularly likely to vote Democratic. Pollsters who don’t conduct bilingual interviewing at all, or who make it cumbersome for the respondent to take the poll in Spanish, may be missing these voters.

Mr. Barreto had noted to me earlier this year that he felt polls might be overestimating support for Republican candidates in California. Indeed, the polls in that state called the right winners — Democrats Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer — but underestimated their eventual margin of victories.

Colorado, the other state where most polls picked the wrong winner, is also a state with a fairly heavy Latino population.

As a back-of-the-envelope test of Mr. Barreto’s theory, I compiled results from the eight states with the largest share of Latinos in their population: these are Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, New York and Texas. There were 15 gubernatorial and Senate races last night between these states."


Silver then puts out a table that is most enlightening.

After the table:

"In 10 of the 15 races, the polling average underestimated the Democrat’s margin by at least 2.5 points. There were 5 other races in which the Republican somewhat beat his polls.

Overall, however, the Democrats outperformed their polls by 2.3 points in these 15 races. There’s enough state-to-state variance in the results that we can’t come to any firm conclusions about whether inadequate sampling of Latino voters was the cause. Still, if you look at the presidential polling in 2008, it also underestimated Democrats’ performance in states like Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, where they won by larger-than-expected margins.

So, we have at least the beginnings of a pattern — and considering how rapidly the Latino population is growing, it’s one that pollsters are going to need to address in states like Nevada, California and Texas if we’re going to be able to take their results at face value."
.

YUP.

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-04 @ 18:45:49 prediction Map
Here are more charts I thought we’d enjoy!


These are the most accurate pollsters for each race.



SENATE





GUBERNATORIAL






Notes:

Rasmussen was the best pollster by default in these races:
Senate: AL, ND
Governor: WY

No pollster even came close to predicting the margins of victory for Inouye or Abercrombie.
No pollster did a particularly good job in the FL governor’s race. The polls that showed the race within 3 or less points had Sink winning, but the pollsters that showed Scott winning had him ahead by at least 4.

These pollsters were the most accurate in BOTH the Senate and Gubernatorial races in these states:

IA: Selzer
NH: University of NH
OR: PPP
SC: Crantford
UT: Dan Jones
VT: Mason-Dixon

In the gubernatorial races, most pollsters overestimated the performance of weak Democrats in red states like ID, NB, SD and WY. However, more importantly, Republicans were often overestimated in more competitive races such as CO, CA and ME.
A similar effect was seen in the Senate races. Democrats were universally overestimated in dark red states like KS, ID, LA and ND. By contrast, most pollsters significantly underestimated Joe Manchin, Barbara Boxer and Lisa Murkowksi.



Last Edit: 2010-11-04 @ 18:47:35

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-05 @ 05:03:34 prediction Map
Great tables, thanks for sparing me the work :) :)

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-05 @ 05:05:41 prediction Map
OH, the GOP just loves Michele Bachmann.

And certain republicans just love Christine O'Donnell, who, now that she will not have a cushy day job in Washington, can start turning tricks in DE.

(Ouch, that was mean of me...)

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-05 @ 05:16:56 prediction Map
Grijalva has won re-election in AZ-07, exactly as predicted. NO amount of utter hatred and bile could remove him. Exactly as I predicted.

It looks like Giffords will also hang on to her seat. Good for her.

Notice that in states where the polling grossly "misunderestimateded" the hispanic vote, the GOP did not pick up as many seats as it hoped. Let that be a warning for 2012.

And speaking of bad polling: Nate Silver gave Scott Rasmussen a very deserved kick in the ass for very bad and biased polling. The article is a gem, and says everything I have been saying for more than 2 years:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-05 @ 05:22:57 prediction Map
and it looks like my stats on WASHINGTON STATE were dead on the mark:

The Seattle Times has called the Senate race for Patty Murray. Three time loser Dino Rossi, aka "the William Jennings Bryan of the wild West", has already conceded and it looks like he is planning to lose a fourth time; he plans to run for governor.

Apparently, there is also money to be made in losing...

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-05 @ 19:02:08 prediction Map
Well, gee, who could have imagined this?

Immigration: Losing Issue For GOP Out West.

I am shocked, utterly shocked.

And what have I been saying ALL ALONG??

BC is laughing all the way to the bank...

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-05 @ 19:06:10 prediction Map
Now, this is my kind of voter!!!!!!!!!!!

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-05 @ 19:25:01 prediction Map
As a sort of advance information, there is now growing evidence that a (relatively) newly formed county in CO is becoming a major bellwether for that state.

Broomfield County (a suburban county between Boulder and Adams counties), which first recorded votes in the 2004 presidential election, has produced following results:

2004:

Bush 51.7%
Kerry 47.1%
Margin: Bush +4.6%

(Statewide, ist was Bush 51.69%, Kerry 47.02%, Margin: Bush +4.68% - an almost perfect match)

2008:

Obama: 54.89%
McCain: 43.31%
Margin: Obama +11.58%

(Statewide it was Obama 53.66% / McCain 44.71%, Margin: Obama +8.95)

2010 Senatorial:

Bennet: 48.7%
Buck: 45.9%
Margin: Bennet +2.8%


2010 Gubernatorial:

Hickenlooper: 52.4
Tancredo: 37.9
Maes: 8.7
Margin: Hickenlooper +14.5

(Statewide: Hickenlooper 50.7% / Tancredo 36.8% / Maes 11.1% / Margin: Hickenlooper +13.9%)

Not a perfect match, and in the case of 2008 and 2010, between 0.6-1.6% (mean = +1.1%) more in the DEM direction, but I wrote in my analysis of COLORADO:

"Example 4: Broomfield County (est. 2001, pop. Approximately 53,700, county seat: Broomfield), a Democratic pick-up, is a brand-new entity in the state statistics, having first officially recorded presidential votes as a county in 2004, meaning that the comparison from 2008 to 2004 is the first in the county's history. The county was created out of portions of Adams, Boulder, Jefferson and Weld counties and was expected to be a moderate republican county, due to the demographic make-up of the county and it's incorporated city. It has become, however, somewhat the „Silicon Valley“ of Colorado and is now known for high-tech service and industry. In 2004, Broomfield County was an almost perfect bellwether:"

In looking at 2012, this will apparently be a county to watch, along with Grand, Chaffee and Garfield counties.

Last Edit: 2010-11-05 @ 20:20:24

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-05 @ 19:42:04 prediction Map
Declared winner in the WA-Senatorial race, Patty Murray, continues to pad her margin against three time loser Dino Rossi:

05 Nov 2010, 19:30 EDT:

Murray 51.64%
Rossi: 48.36%
Margin: Murray +3.28%

Very conceivably will Murray come up to the 4 point spread I predicted a number of times. +3.8% is probably more likely. Which means this race was a lean win, but not a squeaker.

520,202 ballots have yet to be counted, and 200,000 of them are from King County, where Murray has increased her percentage and margin to 63.86%, +27.22% margin. If her percentage maintains in King County, she will add yet another 55,000 to her margin here. Snohomish is the other big county with a lot of votes still out: 88,000. There the race is very close, so Murray will probably add maybe 500 more votes to her margin overall. Spokane county is the biggest Rossi county with votes still out: 65,000. Based on his current winning margin, he will add 2,000 votes overall, or cut into Murray's lead by around 2,000 votes. I suspect that at the end of it all, Murray will have won with over +80,000 votes.

Snohomish and Spokane will be reporting more votes tonight. King County will be reporting the rest of it's votes on 11/08.

Last Edit: 2010-11-05 @ 19:54:55

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-06 @ 00:52:31 prediction Map
Well Bonn I always enjoy your discussions and statistics. This year was no different. I may not have commented as often (seems we both know the burdens of loaded work schedules and social activities) but I did take the time to read a lot of what you wrote including on this page. As with all our discussions some of it I agree with and some of it I don't. I always take it all into consideration even when I have a different take on the matter.

I look forward to seeing your final write up on all the races in terms of their statistical out comes. Your work from 2008 was quite fascinating and I have no doubt that this year's will be no less outstanding. Overall I was very happy with this year.

Now on to 2012 and the biggest contest of them all...

 By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2010-11-06 @ 06:05:58 prediction Map
...the GOP primaries

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-06 @ 18:36:06 prediction Map
...rofl....

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-06 @ 19:57:47 prediction Map
Well that's true, lol. The GOP primaries will in all honest begin next year. Candidates will be building up for the primary elections in early 2012. I'm very excited to see who rises up and decides to have a good at it.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-07 @ 05:21:14 prediction Map
Oh, the GOP primaries have already begun. The behind the scenes hustling and tussling is already in full bloom.

This is why politico made a point to air GOP laundry, which is usually does not do, in a effort to dampen Palin's bid for the Presidency. I believe she can win the GOP nomination, which has the upper elephants really, really worried.

popcorn, rootbeer.... and tea, but not the kind of tea that the tea partiers drink.

Damn, that kind of pisses me off, you know. For 2 years, I was writing to CR: "Sit back, drink tea and wait" and then the thunderous 7th hill hordes take my tea and turn it into a "movement".

So, I am now going Star Trek:

"Sit back, drink Raktajino, and wait...."

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-07 @ 06:28:04 prediction Map
I continue to post over the Murray-Rossi race, which is now decided, to make some statistical points.

Murray has now fallen below +3% over Rossi, right now it is:

Murray: 1,091,669 (51.47%)
Rossi: 1,029,482 (48.53%)
Subtotal: 2,121,151

(2,164,489 ballots have now been counted, so either some were blank for SEN or invalidated or for some 6th party person, which we will learn about later...)

Margin: Murray +62,187 (+2.93%)

HOWEVER, of the 369,102 ballots left to be counted, the following votes are to come in from counties where Murray won:

Gray's Harbor County, 88% in: 4,000 (currently Murray +3.98%). Extrapolation:

4,000 * 52.99% = 2120 for Murray, 1880 for Rossi. Estimated Margin gain: Murray +40 votes

Whatcom County, 93% in: 12,000 (currently Murray +3.80%). Extrapolation:

12,000 * 51.90% = 6228 votes for Murray, 5772 for Rossi. Estimated Margin gain: Murray +456 votes.

Snohomish County, 90% in, 30,000, currently Murray +3.79%. Extrapolation:

30,000 * 51.89% = 15,567 votes for Murray, 14,443 for Rossi. Estimated Margin gain: Murray +1124 votes

King County 195,000, 84% in, currently Murray +27.74%. Extrapolation:

195,000 * 63.86% = 124,527 votes for Murray, 70,743 votes for Rossi. Estimated Margin gain: Murray + 53,784 votes.


So, on Murray's side, about 55,404 votes will pad her margin, which currently is +62,187.

The largest red county with the most votes still out is Spokane County, 84% in, on par with King County, but 3.8 times smaller in size, 32,000 votes still out, currently Rossi +12.38% (Obama also won this county in 2008, btw...). Extrapolation:

32,000 * 56.19% = 17,981 votes for Rossi, 14,019 votes for Murray. Estimated margin gain: Rossi +3,962. This is the only county where Rossi will make any kind of dent in Murray's continuing PV lead.

Pierce county is a practical dead heat between the two, Rossi is ahead by +0.30% and officially 100% reported, but there are 12,500 ballots to be counted yet (absentee, military): 12,500 * 0.30% = 38 vote gain for Rossi.

So, of the 369,102 votes left to be counted, 241,000 of them are from counties where Murray won and the largest gain Rossi will make in any one county is from Spokane, +3,962 votes. From thereon it goes downhill very fast for Rossi. But there are just so many of those small counties where Rossi has major blowout margins: many little fish make for a respectable middle-sized fish in this case....

So, now, including the Spokane numbers, there are now 96,102 votes from Rossi counties to count. Here we see an enormous divide represented by the Cascade mountains. All of the counties west of the Cascades where Rossi won, excepting Pierce and Lewis counties, were very narrow wins: Clallam Skagit, Mason, Cowlitz (100.0% in), Skamania, Clark: That makes 8,274 votes left to count, where I suggest that Rossi will have a maximum 3 point lead total: 8,274 * 3% = 348 votes.

So, the 3,962 votes from Spokane and the 348 votes from lean western counties makes for a Rossi margin gain of 4,310.

Of the 87,828 votes left to count, they come from counties where Rossi won with between 20%-30%. Let's give him a +30% margin for the rest: 87,828 * 30% = 26,389.

That makes for a grand total of 30,699 toward Rossi's margin in his counties.

Expected Murray margin gain: 55,404
Expected Rossi margin gain: 30,699

Total margin gain: Murray +24,705
Current margin: Murray +62,187
TOTAL: MURRAY +86,892

Currently, 2,121,151 votes cast. Officially, 369, 102 left to count. That makes 2,490,253

A 86,892 vote margin out of 2,490,253 = +3.49%.

This is all based on the current margins remaining stable. IN reality, Murray has continued to increase her margin in King county. Rossi's margin in Spokane county has been reduced the in last days and I am being very "liberal" with his +30% margin in all the remaining counties. But all things being equal, I suspect that Murray lands between +3.5-3.7% when all is said and done.

4 months ago I wrote on an older map that she would probably will by 4 points or so. So, it appears that my prediction was very, very correct.




Last Edit: 2010-11-07 @ 06:31:08

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-07 @ 11:25:18 prediction Map
Haha Bonn, I still love tea of course! If you like we could distinguish between the two by saying TEA for the Tea Party (or just always follow it with party) and tea for the regular beverage. In any case I'll join you in watching the races whether we are having tea or Raktajinos :)

You are also very correct that the primaries have quietly already started. Of course a lot of that is in the media and drumming up speculation but who can blame them? That's big news to see if someone is going to run for president or not.

With that said I'm not so sure that Palin is going to run. I know what she's been up to and yes it could serve as the ground work for a campaign. But in all honesty I don't think she wants it. I heard her speak a couple of weeks ago and she said that she'd run if she thought no one else strong enough would. She also said it would need to be discussed with her family. I take her at her word here and I believe that she'd rather not run and is willing to give some new blood a try. I also think that we are going to see some fresh new faces make a bid, outside the old horses that are dancing around the gate (Romney, Huckabee, and Gingrich - I'm looking at you).

I agree with you that Sarah could make it through the GOP primaries. However, I'd rather see her as a kingmaker that blesses a chosen candidate with her endorsement (hopefully the candidate that I'm supporting, lol). But I honestly think she is willing to let others try and if its as bad as 2008 she'll step in if she feels she has to.

There are three people I kind of like right now for the nomination - Senator John Thune, Governor Bob McDonnell, and Governor Bobby Jindal. But we'll just have to wait till next year to see what happens. Very exciting.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-07 @ 17:05:13 prediction Map
Should be interesting to watch.

 By: jlorenzen (D-OH) 2010-11-08 @ 10:34:23  
Jindal. That's a name I've heard very little in regard to the GOP 2012 primaries. During the 2008 election he seemed to be a darling of the GOP. Has something happened that has lowered his popularity?

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-08 @ 17:17:30 prediction Map
No, he's still pretty popular down here.

I just really think that he isn't gonna run in 2012. If he's picked as VP in 2012, he'll probably accept it, but I think he'll wait until at least 2016

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-08 @ 17:29:16 prediction Map
BC is getting his rootbeer and popcorn ready...

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-08 @ 18:52:12 prediction Map
Happy birthday, bonn!!

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-08 @ 19:00:05 prediction Map
Oh yes happy birthday Mark and many happy returns, just not on election night, lol.

I too actually think Jindal would make a better VP than presidential candidate but if Neither Thune nor McDonnell want the job then I'd take him in the top spot.

I'm ready for a spirited primary season!

Last Edit: 2010-11-08 @ 19:00:37

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-08 @ 19:05:37 prediction Map
I'm going to be making a new timeline(like I did with Crist/Lincoln), CR, and I'll be posting it on the forum starting in a few days.

Just thought I'd give you the heads up!

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-08 @ 19:08:22 prediction Map
Oh thanks Miles, I'll enjoy the read I'm sure. Where in the forum will it be located so that I might view it?

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-08 @ 19:13:06 prediction Map
I'll post a link once I start it.

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-08 @ 19:14:47 prediction Map
I'm going to need a few days to plan it. There are some pretty good timelines on the forum...I'm gonna have to put a lot into mine!

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-08 @ 19:17:12 prediction Map
Cool, I look forward to your next story. I'm kind of a sucker for political fiction in addition to the real thing.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-08 @ 19:57:36 prediction Map
Happy Birthday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-09 @ 02:27:08 prediction Map
Hey guys, thanks for the birthday wishes. I have work the entire day. So much for birthday.... but my little daughter and I celebrated yesterday as she was with me...

So, the statistical analysis of WASHINGTON STATE goes on:

Today, November 9, 08:30 GMT+1, there are now just 237,163 votes left to count. Sunday, there were 369,102 votes left to count. Of those votes counted between Sunday and today,70,000 came from King county, and of the votes left to count, 125,000 of those 237,000+ votes left to count are indeed still out of King county, 150,000 total when you add the other three counties where Murray won. In King county, Murray's margin has INCREASED from 27.71% to +28.71. So, Murray is now statewide at +3.72%.

I wrote on Sunday:

"This is all based on the current margins remaining stable. IN reality, Murray has continued to increase her margin in King county. Rossi's margin in Spokane county has been reduced the in last days and I am being very "liberal" with his +30% margin in all the remaining counties. But all things being equal, I suspect that Murray lands between +3.5-3.7% when all is said and done."

It could be I was a little too liberal with Rossi. He has, however, increased his margin in Spokane county from +12.38% to +12.48% and there are still 26,000 votes left to count in Spokane county. There are roughly now 5 times as many votes left in King county to count as in Spokane county.

Perhaps she will hit the +4% mark, after all...

Ah, statistics can be so fun...



Last Edit: 2010-11-09 @ 02:28:49

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-09 @ 18:28:21 prediction Map
BTW, drinking a fine wine is a great way to end a birthday.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-09 @ 18:43:14 prediction Map
the votemaster at electoralvote.com once again did a small, fantastic write up on the new majority. This short piece is worth the reading:

"Who Really Won?

William Saletan of Slate wrote an interesting piece about who won. The conventional wisdom is that politics is about who is in power. He disagrees and says politics is about using power. By that measure the Democrats won--they got one of their top priorities, health-insurance reform--written into law. Congressional majorities come and go (witness the turnaround between 2006 and 2008), but once a major law is passed, even with a lot of opposition--think Social Security and Medicare--it is almost never repealed. It can and will be tweaked around the edges, but even if a Republican is elected President and the Republicans capture Congress in 2012, do they really want to

* Re-open the "donut hole" for seniors' drug benefits?
* Allow insurance companies to cancel policies after people get sick?
* Refuse to insure critically ill children?
* Kick 18-25 years who can't get insurance off their parents' policies?

Probably not. Talking about these things during a campaign is one thing. Actually doing them is something quite different. Remember, while the exit polls showed the public split evenly on repeal, other polls have consistently shown that the public overwhelmingly approves all of the above provisions. Of course, this is inconsistent, but few voters actually know what the law does.

If the Democrats hang onto the White House or one branch of Congress in 2012 (when Democratic turnout will be far higher than it was this year), repeal will be impossible until 2017, at which time the entire law will have kicked in and repeal will be completely impossible (see: George Bush's attempt to phase out Social Security in 2004). "




Last Edit: 2010-11-09 @ 19:07:57

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-09 @ 18:58:55 prediction Map
I want to point to one piece of information that I do not think that anyone else has yet brought up, and this holds ominous information for the GOP in the state of Colorado:

Here is the county electoral map of COLORADO from the GE 2008.

Here is the county electoral map of COLORADO from the 2010 Senate race.

Take a hard look. The maps are almost identical. Only Chaffee County, which was a bare McCain win in 2008, was a bare Bennett win in 2010.

This is important information, for it further supports some claims I made in my analysis of CO, for instance, here in Part III of the analysis:

"How to predict as 2012 nears? Here is a table of the closest county by county races (margin: under +4%), the so-called „tipping point“ counties (winning margin: less than 4%):

Alphabetically:










CountyRegionObama %McCain %MarginO-shiftM-shiftPartisan Shift
USA

--


52.88%


45.61%


+7.27%


+4.62%


-5.12%


+9.73%


Colorado


--


53.66%


44.71%


+8.95%


+6.64%


-6.99%


+13.62%


----


--


------


------


------


-----


-----


 

Grand

C-NW


48.59%


49.69%


+1.10%


+5.97%


-6.30%


-12.27%

Chaffee

C-WC


49.00


49.12%


+0.12%


+6.06%


-6.46%


-12.52%

Garfield

NW


49.20%


49.21%


+0.01%


+4.51%


-4.66%


-9.17%






Of the 3 „tipping-point“ counties, all 3 were barely won by McCain . McCain lost slightly more on percent than Obama gained in all 3 counties . The largest prize of these tipping-point counties is Garfield county, which was analyzed in Part II. Garfield County has moved from a 17% hispanic population in 2000 to a 24% hispanic population in 2007.
The direction of THESE counties in 2012 will give us a very good early indication of who will win the state: Obama or his GOP opponent. All eyes will be on the two huge pick-ups from 2008: Jefferson and Arahapoe counties, but polling in areas like Ouray and also in Garfield county will also give us a strong indication of who will win the state. The other important detail to watch will be the amount of money put into the Colorado Springs media-market. If Obama is in good condition and begins an agressive campaign in El Paso county, then the GOP will be forced to do the same. If it does not, then this means that the GOP already knows that Colorado is lost for them. If however, the hispanic community sours on Obama and the GOP goes on the offensive to reclaim the pick-up counties from 2008, then this means that the GOP has a good chance of re-taking the state."

-----------------------

It is interesting to note that Chaffee county, one of the tipping point counties from 2008, actually flipped to the DEMS in the year of a massive GOP wave. The county map of COLORADO is, as far as I can tell, the most consistent map vis-a-vis 2008 of any state of size. The county configuration of CO that has been leading to a democratic majority in the state can be traced back to it's real beginnings in 1988. Assuming the increased hispanic voter turnout that I am sure will happen in 2012, CO is looking more and more as if it will become a solid BLUE state in 2012 and beyond.

The fact that Bennett able to eek out a narrow win in the face of a massive GOP onslaught, but that the electoral map of CO barely budged, tells me that in 2012, the GOP will have an uphill battle in this state. For all of those young voters who did not show up in 2010 will be there in 2012.

And the hispanic population in Garfield County is expected to go over 30% in 2012. The statistical probability that Obama picks up all three of these tipping point counties and wins the state 56-43, is very, very high.

I will be posting regularly on the potential battleground states for 2012. This is the FIRST posting in such a series of postings.

Last Edit: 2010-11-10 @ 03:48:52

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-10 @ 03:31:33 prediction Map
WASHINGTON STATE UPDATE. Once again, I am doing this for the sake of a continuing statistical analysis. As of 10 November 2010, 09:32 GMT+1:

With 173,878 votes left to count (on Sunday, it was 369,102, on Tuesday there were 237,163 votes left to count), Murray has currently increased her margin over Rossi to +4.28%

Murray: 1,215,467 (52.14%)
Rossi: 1,115,505 (47.86%)
Subtotal: 2,330,972
Margin: Murray +99,962 votes, +4.28%

Of the 173,878 votes left to count, 80,000 of them are still left from King County to count. On Tuesday morning, there were still 125,000 votes in King County to count, so 45,000 of the 63,285 votes tallied up yesterday indeed came out of King county, where Murray has expanded her margin to +29.24%. Very likely she will move to a +30% margin in King County.

Of the "Murray" counties, here are the votes left to tally:

Grays Harbor: 15 (currently Murray 51.78 / Rossi 48.22 - +3.56 margin)

Jefferson: 350 (currently Murray 62.95 / Rossi 37.05 - +25.90 margin)

King: 80,000 (currently Murray 64.62 / Rossi 35.38 - +29.24 margin)

Pacific: 50 (currently Murray 53.15 / Rossi 46.85 - +6.30 margin)

Snohomish: 21,000 (currently Murray 51.83 / Rossi 48.17 - +3.66 margin)

Thurston: 6,000 (currently Murray 56.13 / Rossi 43.87 - +12.66 margin)

Whatcom: 1,900 (currently Murray 52.35 / Rossi 47.65 - +4.70 margin)

Total votes left to count from "Murray" counties: 109,315. The other 64,533 votes are from "Rossi" counties. The "Rossi" county with the most votes left out is:

Spokane: 26,000 (currently Rossi 56.24 / 43.76 - +12.48 margin). Rossi's margin has remained static in Spokane county, it has increased by +0.09%, within the realm of statistical noise.

The ratio of votes from "Murray" counties left to count versus "Rossi" counties left to count is 1.69 to 1. Therefore, the statistical probability is high that Murray's vote margin will definitely go over 100,000 and her percentage margin could climb up to just under +4.5, 0.5% higher than I posted a couple of months ago.

Just to be absolutely clear about this point: this race in 2010 in WA for the US Senate is not nearly as close as the races from 2000 (Cantwell vs. Gorton: Cantwell +0.09%) or from 1988 (Gorton vs. Lowry: Gordon +2.17%) or from 1986 (Adams vs. Gorton: Adams +1.98%). But it will be the 4th or 5th closest race in WA for the US Senate since 1962 (19 elections). Please also notice that names tend to appear three times or so in WA elections, for instance Gorton, Lowry, etc.....rematches in WA are a pretty normal instance.

Last Edit: 2010-11-11 @ 07:40:47

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-10 @ 04:35:54 prediction Map
I wanted to let all the uselectionatlas followers and fellow statistics freaks know about a decision I have made:

in light of the very apparent and extremely blatant bias that Scott Rasmussen's polling in 2010 displayed, I will be weighting his polls for 2012 at 50%, which means I will only consider them 1/2 as important as other polls.

Pollsters who were locally right on the money, for instance Selzer in IA, IL, IN or Quinnipiac for the NE (generally) or PPP for the west, will be weighted at 2.0 times the norm.

That means that Rasmussen will be counted once, the "normal" pollsters will be counted twice, and the locally specialized pollsters who were absolutely dead on the mark will be counted four times. In this way we come to a 2:1:1/2 ratio

So, here is how it would look:

Candidate Blorb (X), Connecticut
Candidate Blarb (Y), Connecticut

Rasmussen: Blorb 48 (X) / Blarb 49 (Y)

SUSA: Blorb 52 (X) / Blarb 48 (Y)
SUSA: Blorb 52 (X) / Blarb 48 (Y)

PPP: Blorb 52 (X) / Blarb 48 (Y)
PPP: Blorb 52 (X) / Blarb 48 (Y)

IPSOS/Reuters: Blorb 51.6 (X) / Blarb 47.4 (Y)
IPSOS/Reuters: Blorb 51.6 (X) / Blarb 47.4 (Y)

Quinnipiac Blorb 52.9 (X) / Blarb 47.1 (Y)
Quinnipiac Blorb 52.9 (X) / Blarb 47.1 (Y)
Quinnipiac Blorb 52.9 (X) / Blarb 47.1 (Y)
Quinnipiac Blorb 52.9 (X) / Blarb 47.1 (Y)

Total polls to add and average: 11

Blorb 570.8 (X) / Blarb 524.2 (Y)

DIVIDED by 11:

Blorb 51.89 (X) / Blarb 47.65 (Y)

In this way, Rasmussen will not be able to drive the market in the unethical way he did in 2010. I have also written Rasmussen a scathing letter, criticizing him for his all too obvious house effect during the run-up to the election and the even more obvious bias based on the election results. I also wrote to him that I find it despicable that he not even take the time to answer questions from other pollsters and statisticians who know what they are doing. Don't forget, folks: a pollster who suddenly clams up usually has something to hide. The right went absolutely apeshit over KOS's former pollster, and now I am going to do the same over RAS, and correctly so.

That makes for two pollsters in one year who have utterly disgraced themselves. And since we are all grown-ups here, we should discuss this like grown ups and call spade a spade when it is a spade. And RAS is in this year definitely a spade.

If there was ever a time and a need for national polling standards and a way to check their accuracy in weighting, then the time is now and the need is definite. If we can shoot satellites into orbit that can take images so good that they can literally count the hairs on our heads, if we can used ion drives to propel probes out of our solar system, if we can now teleport a limited number of molecules, then certainly we can learn to do honest math that adds up to 100.00%!!!

Last Edit: 2010-11-10 @ 04:41:36

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-10 @ 13:06:40 prediction Map
I agree 100% with you, bonn.

I was thinking about just excluding Rasmussen altogether from my aggregates or just adding a house effect of R+5. But yur way seems better.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-11 @ 08:01:09 prediction Map
WASHINGTON STATE UPDATE, 11/11/2010. Once again, I am doing this for the sake of a continuing statistical analysis. As of 11 November 2010, 14:00 GMT+1:

With 122,453 votes left to count (on Sunday, it was 369,102, on Tuesday there were 237,163 votes left to count, on Wednesday there were 173,878), Murray's lead has decreased very slightly from +4.28% to +4.22%.

Murray: 1,247,071 (52.14%)
Rossi: 1,146,017 (47.86%)
Subtotal: 2,393,088
Margin: Murray +101,054 votes, +4.22%

Of the 122,453 votes left to count, 65,000 of them are still left from King County to count. On Wednesday morning, there were still 80,000 votes in King County to count, so 15,000 of the 51,425 votes tallied up yesterday indeed came out of King county, where Murray has expanded her margin to +29.40%. Very likely she will move to a +30% margin in King County.

Of the "Murray" counties, here are the votes left to tally:

Grays Harbor: 15 (currently Murray 51.78 / Rossi 48.22 - +3.56 margin)UNCHANGED from Wednesday.

Jefferson: 20 (currently Murray 63.01 / Rossi 36.99 - +26.02 margin)

King: 65,000 (currently Murray 64.70 / Rossi 35.30 - +29.40 margin)- another margin gain for Murray in Seattle.

Pacific: 50 (currently Murray 53.15 / Rossi 46.85 - +6.30 margin)- UNCHANGED from Wednesday.

Snohomish: 21,000 (currently Murray 51.86 / Rossi 48.14 - +3.72 margin)- very slight margin gain, but still 21,000 votes out.

Thurston: 4,500 (currently Murray 56.07 / Rossi 43.93 - +12.14 margin)- a -.52% change for Murray.

Whatcom: 400 (currently Murray 52.41 / Rossi 47.59 - +4.82 margin), +0.12% margin gain for Murray

Total votes left to count from "Murray" counties: 90,985. So, of 122,453 votes left to count overall, the other 31,468 votes are from "Rossi" counties. The "Rossi" county with the most votes left out is:

Spokane: 18,000 (currently Rossi 56.30 /
The ratio of votes from "Murray" counties left to count versus "Rossi" counties left to count was 1.69 to 1 on Wednesday, it is now 2.89 to 1.

On Wednesday, I wrote:


"Therefore, the statistical probability is high that Murray's vote margin will definitely go over 100,000 and her percentage margin could climb up to just under +4.5, 0.5% higher than I posted a couple of months ago."

She is already over +100,000 votes in margin and will surely stay there. +4.5 at the end of this all looks more and more likely.

--------------------------------

Just to be absolutely clear about this point: this race in 2010 in WA for the US Senate is not nearly as close as the races from 2000 (Cantwell vs. Gorton: Cantwell +0.09%) or from 1988 (Gorton vs. Lowry: Gordon +2.17%) or from 1986 (Adams vs. Gorton: Adams +1.98%). But it will be the 4th or 5th closest race in WA for the US Senate since 1962 (19 elections). If Murray climbs over +4.79% in margin, then it will be the 5th leanest election since 1962.

There will be an update on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Last Edit: 2010-11-13 @ 03:23:34

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-11 @ 15:23:02 prediction Map
Washington state has seen some close senatorial elections in the past. I believe the rounded totals will be

Murray 52%
Rossi 48%

Still a tight race for her considering her earlier elections. However it is not as close as Rossi race for governor against Gregoire. This man has not had very good luck when he runs.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-11 @ 17:48:28 prediction Map
Hi liberal, it depends on how you define the past.

In WASHINGTON, since 1914 (32 election cycles), there have only been 6 contests where the margin was less than 5%, 7 contests where the margin was between 5%-10% and 20 contests where the margin was over 10% (landslide margin), and 9 of them were with +25% or more margin.

So, historically, the majority of senatorial elections in WA have actually been landslides.

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-11 @ 17:52:54 prediction Map
Well I was referring to the recent past I suppose.

Im just very glad Senator Murray will be returning to the senate. I admire her and her long distinguished career.

The mom in tennis shoes!

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-11 @ 18:10:30 prediction Map
Yup, the mom in tennis shoes.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-13 @ 03:43:45 prediction Map
WASHINGTON STATE UPDATE, 11/13/2010. Once again, I am doing this for the sake of a continuing statistical analysis. As of 13 November 2010, 09:45 GMT+1:

With 91,878 votes left to count (a week ago it was 369,102, on Tuesday it was 237,163, on Wednesday it was 173,878, on Thursday it was 122,453), Murray's lead has increased from +4.22% to +4.30%.

Murray: 1,262,778 (52.15%)
Rossi: 1,158,708 (47.85%)
Subtotal: 2,421,486
Margin: Murray +104,070 votes, +4.30%

Of the 91,878 votes left to count, 50,000 of them are still left from King County to count. On Wednesday morning, there were still 65,000 votes in King County to count, so 15,000 of the 30,475 votes tallied up yesterday indeed came out of King county, where Murray has expanded her margin to +29.50%. Very likely she will edge up close to a +30% margin in King County.

Of the "Murray" counties, here are the votes left to tally:

Grays Harbor: 15 (currently Murray 51.78 / Rossi 48.22 - +3.56 margin) - UNCHANGED from Thursday.

Jefferson: 20 (currently Murray 63.01 / Rossi 36.99 - +26.02 margin)- - UNCHANGED from Thursday.

King: 50,000 (currently Murray 64.75 / Rossi 35.25 - +29.50 margin)- another margin gain for Murray in Seattle.

Pacific: 50 (currently Murray 53.15 / Rossi 46.85 - +6.30 margin)- UNCHANGED from Thursday.

Snohomish: 14,000 (currently Murray 51.88 / Rossi 48.12 - +3.76 margin)- very slight margin gain for Murray.

Thurston: 4,500 (currently Murray 56.07 / Rossi 43.93 - +12.14 margin)- UNCHANGED from Thursday.

Whatcom: 150 (currently Murray 52.47 / Rossi 47.53 - +5.06 margin), +0.22% margin gain for Murray over Thursday.

Total votes left to count from "Murray" counties: 68,735. So, of 91,878 votes left to count overall, the other 23,143 votes are from "Rossi" counties. The "Rossi" county with the most votes left out is:

Spokane: 18,000 (currently Rossi 56.30 / Murray 43.70 - +12.60 margin). 8,000 votes were counted here since Thursday, but the percentages and margin have remained UNCHANGED.

The ratio of votes from "Murray" counties left to count versus "Rossi" counties left to count was 1.89 to 1 on Thursday, it is now 2.97 to 1.

On Wednesday, I wrote:


"Therefore, the statistical probability is high that Murray's vote margin will definitely go over 100,000 and her percentage margin could climb up to just under +4.5, 0.5% higher than I posted a couple of months ago."

On Thursday I wrote:

"She is already over +100,000 votes in margin and will surely stay there. +4.5 at the end of this all looks more and more likely."

She is now at +4.3. +4.5 is all but guaranteed now.

--------------------------------

Just to be absolutely clear about this point: this race in 2010 in WA for the US Senate is not nearly as close as the races from 2000 (Cantwell vs. Gorton: Cantwell +0.09%) or from 1988 (Gorton vs. Lowry: Gordon +2.17%) or from 1986 (Adams vs. Gorton: Adams +1.98%). But it will be the 4th or 5th closest race in WA for the US Senate since 1962 (19 elections). If Murray climbs over +4.79% in margin, then it will be the 5th leanest election since 1962.

NEXT UPDATE ON 11/24

Last Edit: 2010-11-23 @ 03:25:50

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-13 @ 08:09:48 prediction Map
BREAKING NEWS:

The CIA found Obama's KGB passport hidden under his real (I swear, over a stack of 1962 baseball cards) kenyan birth certificate, his Illuminati and NAFTA Superhighway lapel pins and "how to enslave all white women" - all hidden within a holed-out copy of Karl Marx's "Communist Manifesto", stowed away in a VHS tape case to "The Manchurian Candidate".

This is a story that is just sure to explode.

Rand Paul used a forked stick to find the things, buried in the cellar of a small white house in Wyoming, after having a Bong vision.

Michele Bachmann plans to personally lead the impeachment hearings.

Meanwhile, in other news, Mitt Romney has converted to southern baptist
.

Oh, wait, sorry, that was a text for my first GOP wet-dream map for 2012.

Sorry, pick up the party favors.

Chuckle, chuckle, chuckle...grinz grinz grinz....
(just wanted to see if you all are still alive out there).

Last Edit: 2010-11-15 @ 11:27:04

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-14 @ 09:00:28 prediction Map
LOL>>>>>>

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-14 @ 14:28:20 prediction Map
Funny

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-14 @ 17:55:38 prediction Map
Tja, someone has to keep us all laughing.

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-14 @ 19:07:48 prediction Map
WOW...I was clutching my heart when I first read that!

Don't do that bonn!!!

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-15 @ 10:17:19 prediction Map
ROFL...

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-15 @ 20:35:00 prediction Map
I appoint Bonncaruso of Germany official Altas Master of Humor :)

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-17 @ 09:58:59 prediction Map
äääh, that would be "Secretary of humoristic analyis§, if you don't mind.

For those with memories, I will let Liberalrocks take care of the "undersecretaries".

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-18 @ 07:59:43 prediction Map
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/11/17/extra_bonus_quote_of_the_day.html

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-18 @ 23:33:04 prediction Map
LOL Bonn. Mr. Secretary it is!

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-11-19 @ 02:50:49 prediction Map
And with that humor I exit the stage for at least until late Fall of 2011. I wish to thank all the regular contributors for humor, insight, reason passioned discourse for the most part and finally the interest in the American future...thanks

and to Bonn may your voice last another 20 years or more...

peace to all

and my last word-
CUT

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-19 @ 19:01:56 prediction Map
Goodbye, dnul!

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-19 @ 20:06:49 prediction Map
Take care dnul, Bonn, and KS. See you in late 2011.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-21 @ 16:13:59 prediction Map
Goodbye, see you all in late 2010 for the grand 2012 Electionapaloozathonthingy.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-23 @ 04:18:01 prediction Map
WASHINGTON STATE FINAL UPDATE, 11/23/2010. Once again, I am doing this for the sake of a continuing statistical analysis. As of 23 November 2010, 10:15 GMT+1:

With only 1,548 votes left to count (two weeks ago it was 369,102, on the Tuesday following it was 237,163, on Wednesday it was 173,878, on Thursday it was 122,453, on 11/13, it was 91,878 ), Murray's lead has increased from +4.30% to +4.75%, exactly as predicted.

Murray: 1,314,023 (52.37%)
Rossi: 1,194,926 (47.63%)
Subtotal: 2,508,949
Margin: Murray +119,097 votes, +4.75% (119,097 / 2,508,949)

Of the 1,548 votes left to count, which will make 2,510,497 total for WA for 2010, those 1,548 votes make up 6 100ths of a percent (0.06%), so, even assuming a Rossi 70-30 win over the remaining votes, the percentages should stay the same and the margin will be either +4.74% or +4.75%, depending on end-total rounding.

On 11/13, I wrote about King County:

"Murray has expanded her margin to +29.50%. Very likely she will edge up close to a +30% margin in King County."

Indeed, Murray has landed at +29.84% in King County (Seattle).

Of the "Murray" counties, here are the votes left to tally:

Grays Harbor: all votes COUNTED: Murray 51.73 / Rossi 48.27 - +3.46 margin) - -0.10 for Murray since 11/13

Jefferson: 20 (currently Murray 63.01 / Rossi 36.99 - +26.02 margin)- - UNCHANGED from 11/13.

King: ALL VOTES COUNTED: Murray 64.92 / Rossi 35.08 - +29.85 margin- +0.35% margin gain for Murray over 11/13.

Pacific: 50 (currently Murray 53.15 / Rossi 46.85 - +6.30 margin)- UNCHANGED from 11/13.

Snohomish: all votes COUNTED: Murray 51.86 / Rossi 48.14 - +3.72 margin)- -0.04 margin loss for Murray since 11/13.

Thurston: 165 (currently Murray 56.14 / Rossi 43.86 - +12.28 margin)- +0.14% margin increase for Murray from 11/13.

Whatcom: all votes COUNTED:Murray 52.49 / Rossi 47.51 - +5.09 margin, +0.04% margin gain for Murray over 11/13.

Total votes left to count from "Murray" counties: 335. So, of 1,548 votes left to count overall, the other 1,213 votes are from "Rossi" counties. The "Rossi" counties with the most votes left out are Stevens and Walla Walla counties, with 780 votes total left to count, and those are both counties with +30% margins for Rossi.

In Spokane county: all votes COUNTED: Rossi 56.27 / Murray 43.75 - +12.52 margin, a -0.08% margin drop for Rossi since 11/13.

The ratio of votes from "Murray" counties left to count versus "Rossi" counties left to count was 2.97 to 1 on 11/13, it is now 1 to 3.62. This is the first time in the counting where more "Rossi" votes are out than Murray votes, but since all remaining votes only account for 0.06% of the total vote, it now makes no difference.

Two weeks ago, I wrote:


"Therefore, the statistical probability is high that Murray's vote margin will definitely go over 100,000 and her percentage margin could climb up to just under +4.5, 0.5% higher than I posted a couple of months ago."

Thursday two weeks ago I wrote:

"She is already over +100,000 votes in margin and will surely stay there. +4.5 at the end of this all looks more and more likely."

On 11/13, I wrote:

"She is now at +4.3. +4.5 is all but guaranteed now."

She now stands at +4.75%. The race was not even close at the end of the day. Just to compare and to put this into perspective, Murray won her re-election with a higher margin than George W. Bush won with in Ohio, Colorado and Nevada in both 2000 and 2004. She won better than either presidential candidate in Pennsylvania, Iowa, or Wisconsin in either 2000 or 2004. Her win in WA in 2010 was more solid than Obama's win in Florida or Ohio in 2008. It was larger than McCain's win in Montana in 2008. It comes very close to McCain's winning margin in Georgia in 2008, a state that became competitive but was never really in doubt.

--------------------------------

Just to be absolutely clear about this point: this race in 2010 in WA for the US Senate is not nearly as close as the races from 2000 (Cantwell vs. Gorton: Cantwell +0.09%) or from 1988 (Gorton vs. Lowry: Gordon +2.17%) or from 1986 (Adams vs. Gorton: Adams +1.98%). But it will be the 4th or 5th closest race in WA for the US Senate since 1962 (19 elections). If Murray climbs over +4.79% in margin, then it will be the 5th leanest election since 1962. It looks certain that it will be the 4th leanest senatorial election in WA since 1962.


So, for those who follow my statistics for 2012, remember this analysis. I have been spot on the mark most of the time, excluding MO in 2008 and the senatorials in NV and CO in 2010.

Last Edit: 2010-11-23 @ 04:26:13

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-25 @ 05:42:40 prediction Map
And the WA final results are in, all votes tallied:

Murray has landed at +4.72% over Rossi.

Murray: 1,314,930 (52.36%)
Rossi: 1,196,964 (47.64%)
Subtotal: 2,511,894
Margin: Murray +117,966 votes, +4.72%

Apparently, there were more than 1,548 votes left out, for Murray picked up 800 votes and Rossi picked up around 2,000 votes, just enough to shift the statistic by 0.03%.

So, Murray's win is the 4 leanest in WA since 1962.


 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-26 @ 16:36:22 prediction Map
So, this is the last post for 2010 here.

If you wish to visit my blog, it is here.

And friends can email me here.

Till 2011!!

Last Edit: 2010-11-26 @ 16:36:53


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2012 President 55/56 45/56 100/112 89.3% pie 7 0 115T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 20/37 54/74 73.0% pie 11 0 151T
P 2008 President 54/56 46/56 100/112 89.3% pie 75 0 13T
P 2008 Senate 27/33 16/33 43/66 65.2% pie 3 326 303T
P 2008 Dem Primary 45/52 16/52 61/104 58.7% pie 14 - 38T
P 2008 Rep Primary 36/49 11/49 47/98 48.0% pie 10 - 64T
Aggregate Predictions 251/283 154/283 405/566 71.6% pie



Back to 2010 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home

© David Leip 2003 All Rights Reserved