Election 2016 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-06-29 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	17
Ind	0
Non	16

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	11
Rep	16
Ind	0
Tos	7
Non	16

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+6	+1	+7	0	0	0	7	3	10	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-6	-1	-7	16	1	17	-7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	17	34	51
Republican	17	30	47
Independent	0	2	2

Analysis

Republican prospects continue to get worse in AZ and NC, and probably IA and MO as well although they are still favored in those two states. Rubio running for re-election is a boost to their chances in FL, but I still think Trump will drag him down to defeat there.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	35/35	31/35	66/70	94.3%	2	2	1	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	24/36	58/72	80.6%	2	2	104	T	272
2020 President	51/56	36/56	87/112	77.7%	6	6	502	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	19/35	49/70	70.0%	5	4	309	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	3	6	51	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	3	4	35	T	192
2018 Senate	32/35	25/35	57/70	81.4%	6	0	24	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	26/36	58/72	80.6%	6	3	56	T	372
2016 President	47/56	29/56	76/112	67.9%	6	1	409	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	20/34	50/68	73.5%	8	1	89	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	3	0	67	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	4	0	8	T	112
2014 Senate	32/36	25/36	57/72	79.2%	4	1	82	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	16/36	45/72	62.5%	4	1	145	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	2	14	17	T	153
2012 President	56/56	47/56	103/112	92.0%	8	1	26	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	24/33	55/66	83.3%	5	1	20	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	2	1	89	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	44/52	23/52	67/104	64.4%	30	-	16	T	231
2010 Senate	35/37	25/37	60/74	81.1%	1	2	54	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	23/37	58/74	78.4%	1	2	74	T	312
2008 President	53/56	46/56	99/112	88.4%	3	0	26	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	17/33	49/66	74.2%	2	0	144	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	1	3	86	T	264
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	23/33	56/66	84.8%	6	7	31	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	22/36	57/72	79.2%	8	7	50	T	312
2004 President	51/56	34/56	85/112	75.9%	1	162	706	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	804/877	564/877	1368/1754	78.0%

Links

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