Date of Prediction: 2016-06-29 Version:4
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):
Analysis
Republican prospects continue to get worse in AZ and NC, and probably IA and MO as well although they are still favored in those two states. Rubio running for re-election is a boost to their chances in FL, but I still think Trump will drag him down to defeat there.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 6 Trump's continued cratering is negatively effecting GOP senate hopes. CO ceases to be competitive, Dems will likely pick-up NC now, and are very close to picking up MO as well. At this rate, even GA and IA will be in play soon. Version: 4 Republican prospects continue to get worse in AZ and NC, and probably IA and MO as well although they are still favored in those two states. Rubio running for re-election is a boost to their chances in FL, but I still think Trump will drag him down to defeat there. Version: 3 Slight changes in favor of the Democrats. They have the potential to put NC, MO, AZ, and maybe IA into play in addition to the six seats where I see them winning. For Republicans, their pick-up opportunity is basically just NV at this point, with an outside chance in CO. Version: 2 A few shifts, mostly in favor of the Democrats. Version: 1 Very early Senate prediction.
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