Election 2016 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2015-06-26 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	18
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	12
Rep	18
Ind	0
Tos	3
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+4	+1	+5	0	0	0	7	3	10	+5
Rep	0	0	0	-5	-1	-6	17	1	18	-6
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	15	34	49
Republican	18	30	48
Independent	0	2	2

Analysis

Democrats will win CA,CT,HI,MD,NY,OR,VT,and WA by a double digit margin. 44D <br /> Democrats will win CO,IL,NV,and WI by a high single digit margin. 48D <br /> Democrats need to win FL and OH or NH or PA to regain control of the U.S. Senate.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2015-06-26 @ 22:36:37
2016 Freshman US Senate Class<br /> 1)Harris(D-CA)<br /> 2)Murphy(D-FL)<br /> 3)Duckworth(D-IL)<br /> 4)Hill(D-IN)<br /> 5)Edwards(D-MD)<br /> 6)Cortez Masto(D-NV)<br /> 7)Strickland(D-OH)<br /> 8)Sestak(D-PA)<br /> 9)Feingold(D-WI)

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2015-07-06 @ 19:09:45
Democratic US Senate Victories in 2016 <br /> 37)HI-Schatz<br /> 38)VT-Leahy<br /> 39)NY-Schumer<br /> 40)MD-Van Hollen<br /> 41)OR-Wyden<br /> 42)CT-Blumenthal<br /> 43)CA-Harris<br /> 44)WA-Murray<br /> 45)CO-Bennet<br /> 46)IL-Duckworth<br /> 47)WI-Feingold<br /> 48)NV-Cortez Masto<br /> 49)FL-Murphy<br /> 50)OH-Strickland<br />

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2015-07-06 @ 21:20:08
Solid Democratic <br /> CT,HI,MD,NY,OR,and VT-42D <br /> Solid Republican <br /> AL,AR,GA,ID,IA,KS,KY,LA,ND,OK,SC,SD and UT-43R<br /> Likely Democratic <br /> CA and WA- 44D<br /> Likely Republican<br /> AK,AZ,IN,MO,and NC-48R<br /> Lean Democratic <br /> CO,IL,and WI- 47D<br /> Lean Republican <br /> NH and PA- 50R <br /> Tossup <br /> FL,NV,and OH-

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2015-07-09 @ 00:26:51
Democrats are favored to win<br /> HI-Schatz-D 37<br /> VT-Leahy-D 38<br /> NY-Schumer-D 39<br /> MD-Van Hollen-D 40<br /> CT-Blumenthal-D 41<br /> OR-Wyden-D 42<br /> CA-Harris-D 43<br /> WA-Murray-D 44<br /> CO-Bennet-D 45.<br /> Republicans are favored to win<br /> AL-Shelby-R 31<br /> AK-Murkowski-R 32<br /> AR-Boozman-R 33<br /> GA-Isakson-R 34<br /> ID-Crapo-R 35<br /> IA-Grassley-R 36<br /> KS-Moran-R 37<br /> KY-Paul-R 38<br /> LA-Fleming-R 39<br /> ND-Hoeven-R 40<br /> OK-Lankford-R 41<br /> SC-Scott-R 42<br /> SD-Thune-R 43<br /> UT-Lee-R 44 <br /> The most vulnerable Republican held US Senate Seats are in<br /> AZ-McCain-R vs Kirkpatrick-D<br /> FL-DeSantis-R vs Murphy-D <br /> IL-Kirk-R vs Duckworth-D <br /> IN-Stutzman-R vs Hill-D <br /> MO-Blunt-R vs Kander-D <br /> OH-Portman-R vs Strickland-D <br /> PA-Toomey-R vs Sestak-D <br /> WI-Johnson-R vs Feingold.<br /> Democrats are going to win<br /> FL-Murphy-D 46<br /> IN-Hill-D 47<br /> IL-Duckworth-D 48<br /> OH-Strickland-D 49 <br /> WI-Feingold-D 50 <br /> Republicans are going to win<br /> AZ-McCain-R 45<br /> MO-Blunt-R 46<br /> NH-Ayotte-R 47<br /> NC-Burr-R 48 <br /> Democrats are also going to win<br /> NV-Cortez Masto-D <br /> PA-Sestak-D <br /> Democrats guide to regaining control of the U.S. Senate is winning. <br /> 46)NV<br /> 47)WI<br /> 48)IL<br /> 49)FL<br /> 50)PA<br /> 51)OH<br /> 52)IN

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2015-07-11 @ 18:12:01
Democrats are going to win HI,VT,NY,MD,CT,OR,CA,WA,and CO. 45seats. <br /> If Democrats win NV, They just need to win at least 4 Republican held seats IL,WI,FL,and OH.<br /> If Democrats lose NV, Democrats will need to win IL,WI,FL,OH,and NH-if Hassan runs,

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2015-07-15 @ 22:02:57
The most vulnerable Democratic US Senate seats are NV and CO. Democrats have a 50-50 chance of losing NV, CO is more likely to remain in the Democratic collumn. <br /> Democrats will need to win 5 Republican held US Senate Seats.<br /> IL and WI are in the lean Democratic Collumn.<br /> FL and OH are in the Tossup Collumn.<br /> Democrats need to win PA.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	20	4	10	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	221	4	164	T	362
2014 Senate	34/36	25/36	59/72	81.9%	97	16	42	T	382
2014 Governor	28/36	16/36	44/72	61.1%	1	325	171	T	300
2012 President	52/56	43/56	95/112	84.8%	111	1	314	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	21/33	52/66	78.8%	27	38	74	T	343
Aggregate Predictions	227/251	161/251	388/502	77.3%