Super wealthy towns that heavily swung against Donald Trump

[NOVA Green]

Oregon- 10 wealthiest places in Oregon based on MHI per statisticalatlas.com

Even the wealthiest communities in Oregon aren't nearly as wealthy as places with significantly higher costs of living (Bay Area California, parts of SoCal, Metro NYC, Metro DC, etc..... but as other posters have noted wealth is relative, and obviously only includes income and not net worth, so someone could have a $ 2 Million Home in Oregon, but still only clear an MHI of $ 120k/Yr, and still be considered wealthy by any reasonable standard within Oregon.

 

1.) Bethany- MHI- $109.9k/Yr---- Uninc Washington County- Pop 21.5k

54.7% White (Non-Latino), 32.9% Asian-American, 6.4% Latino.

Asian-Americans heavily Chinese (11.1% of total Pop), Indian (9.7% of total pop), Korean (4.5% of total Pop)

Precinct boundaries shifted between '12 and '16 in WashCo, and there are a few overlaps with other uninc communities on both precinct maps, but still the most reasonable approximation possible.

2012: (53.4% Dem- 43.5% Rep)     +9.9% D Margins
2016: (60.5% Dem- 28.6% Rep)     +31.9% D Margins   (+22% Dem Swing)

2.) Cedar Mill Oregon- MHI $99.7k/Yr---- Uninc Washington County--- Pop 15.4k

77.4% White, 13.2% Asian-American, 4.0% Latino

2012: (60-37 D)    +23 D
2016: (64-35 D)    +29 D     (+6% Democratic Swing)

3.) Happy Valley- MHI $ 92.8k/Yr- Suburban/Exurban City in Clackamas County--- Pop 14.9k

69% White, 18% Asian, 6% Latino

2012: (46-53 R)    +7 R
2016: (49- 41 D)   +8 D      (+15% Dem Swing)

4.) West Linn- MHI $ 84.5k/Yr---- City--- Inner Suburban---Clackamas County---  Pop 25.5k

87% White, 5% Asian, 4% Latino

2012: (55-44 D)    +11 D
2016: (60-29 D)    +31 D    (+20% Dem Swing)

5.) Lake Oswego- MHI $83.6k/Yr--- City- Inner Suburban--- Clackamas County--- Pop 37.0k

87.1% White, 6.5% Asian, 4.0% Latino

2012: (57-41 D)      +16 D
2016: (62-29 D)      +33 D     (+17% Dem Swing)

6.) Sherwood---- MHI $ 78.4k/Yr--- Exurban City- Yamhill County- Pop 18.4k

86% White, 6% Latino, 5% Asian

2012: (47-50 R)     +3 R
2016: (47-39 D)     +8 D      (+11% Dem Swing)

7.) Oatfield- MHI $67.6k/Yr- Uninc- Clackamas County- Pop 14.2k

90% White, 4.4% Latino

2012: (55- 42 D)     +13 D
2016: (51- 38 D)     +13 D     (+0% Dem Swing)

8.) Hillsboro- MHI $ 65.2k/ Yr--- Large City- Clackamas County- Pop 93.9k

60.4% White, 24.2% Latino, 8.9% Asian

2012: (56- 39 D)     +17 D
2016: (55- 32 D)     +27 D   (+10% Swing).

9.) Troutdale- MHI $62.3k/Yr---- Suburban Portland- East Multnomah County- Pop 16.2k

81.6% White, 6.7% Latino, 6.0% Asian

2012: (51- 46 D)   +5 D
2016: (44- 43 D)    +1 D (-4% Dem Swing)

10.) Aloha- MHI $ 61.5k/yr--- Uninc- Washington County- Pop 51.5k

61% White, 22% Latino, 9% Asian

2012: (60- 36 D)      +24 D
2016: (58- 30 D)      +28 D      (+4% Dem Swing)

I have much more data, including more precinct level data on my Oregon 2016 GE Presidential results thread....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.0

What is most lacking in my thread is breakdown by individual precincts based upon MHI based on US Census tract level data for the City of Portland, but in many of the wealthiest places in Oregon listed above, I did drill a bit more down into precinct level results, as well as some other precincts not part of the communities above, that actually have a higher MHI....

Regardless, the swings towards Clinton in the wealthiest five communities in Oregon, were extremely dramatic and virtually unprecedented....

[NOVA Green]

In the long term, I think wealthy voters will continue to trend D

Yes, he was about the worst possible candidate for them.

True, but I think these places are trending D in the long term anyway.

I know you think that.  I know Eharding thinks that.  I struggle to see why, though.  There will ALWAYS be a high floor in these places for a Republican as long as the GOP is asking for more "pro-rich" policies than the Democrats are; do you honestly see that flipping?  Ever?  Even if you believe that the GOP is going full Trumpist in EVERY geographic area for decades (unlikely in my opinion, especially given that Trumpist GOPers tend to be older and in shrinking areas of the country, but whatever), there is at least as much evidence that the Democratic Party will continue to move to the left economically with millenials becoming more prominent in the party.

Because at some point, the anti-intellectual/professional vibes that are prevalent among the GOP's base and elected officials begin to outweigh the benefits of a lower tax bracket.

^^^

Most polls have shown that the wealthy are becoming more on liberal in economic issues (although a majority still hold conservative views on economic issues)

Also, the wealthy tend to be very socially liberal and are turned off by the anti-immigration, anti-professional/intellectual, anti-globalization, anti-gay marriage, and anti-science rhetoric coming from the GOP.

Many wealthy people don't mind paying an extra 3% in taxes if it means voting for candidates who align with them on social issues.

And many wealthy voters hold liberal economic views and don't support cutting social programs that help the poor, support increasing the minimum wage, etc. Also, some wealthy voters find the GOP's "deficit hawk" additude to be a turn-off. Many of these people support more infrastructure spending and government investment in the economy. For example, most major businesses are huge supporters of more infrastructure spending and government investment in the economy, which the GOP doesn't want. Many wealthy voters don't mind paying a 2%-3% in taxes if it means voting for candidates who align with them on most other issues.

Let's dispel with this fiction that all wealthy voters are economically conservative. A majority are, but there are still plenty on wealthy voters who hold liberal economic views.

But yes, the main reason why these wealthy communities swung so heavily D is because Trump was the nominee.

How did your community vote in '12 and '16 Non Swing Voter, and can you provide us with some election results and swings in '12 and '16 in NoVA?

[NOVA Green]

I must have missed all of the posts in 2012 about how wealthy towns were rapidly going to trend R after how many Romney swung from Obama ... guess people didn't want it to be true as badly.

-What towns? Romney didn't even win DuPage County.

Scroll up, bro.

-Fairfax? Marin? Nassau? Suffolk? Loudoun? Did Romney win any of these rich counties?

I think we are drilling down to even lower than a county level for greater granularity....  even in county level results for the wealthiest counties you are going to see significant distortions in the data, since there are usually a significant amount of working and middle-class areas contained within these counties, that tend to be more heavily concentrated in Metro areas of the US.

[NOVA Green]

This is a really cool thread, and I like all of the crowdsourcing that has gone into pulling these numbers together from various members of the Atlas Community....

So, to summarize the collective findings we have data from the following states/ locations:

Washington:   No MHI data included.

King County----

Medina: +29% D Swing '12 to '16
Yarrow Point: +31% D Swing '12 to '16
Hunts Point: +41% D Swing '12 to '16
Clyde Hill: +29% D Swing '12 to '16
Woodbury: +20% D Swing '12 to '16

Oregon- MHI data included. Five wealthiest places in Oregon

Bethany- +22% D Swing '12 to '16        (Washington County)
Cedar Mill- +6% D Swing '12 to '16        (Washington County)
Happy Valley- +15% D Swing '12 to '16  (Clackamas County)
West Linn- +20% D Swing '12 to '16      (Clackamas County)
Lake Oswego- +17% D Swing '12 to '16  (Clackamas County)

California- MHI data included- 2 towns on the Bay Area Peninsula

Atherton- +42% D swing '12 to '16
Woodsville- +32% D swing '12 to '16

Michigan- No MHI data included and no swing data included

Birmingham (Oakland County)
East Grand Rapids (Kent County)

Illinois   No MHI data included nor total vote percentages

New Trier Township  (Cook County)..... -20% Republican decrease '12 to '16

New York     No MHI data nor total vote percentages

Scarsdale---- (Westchester County)   -20% Republican '12 to '16
New Castle-- (Westchester County)   -16% Republican '12 to '16

New Jersey--   MHI included

Millburn--- (Essex County)   +28% Dem Swing '12 to '16
Mountain Lakes--- (Morris County)    +29% Dem Swing '12 to '16
Montgomery--- (Somerset County)    +21% Dem Swing '12 to '16

Connecticut---- MHI Included

Fairfield County:

Darien- +43% Dem Swing
Greenwhich- +28% Dem Swing
New Canaan- +40% Dem Swing

Rhode Island- MHI included

East Greenwhich--- (Kent County)   +14% Dem Swing


Massachusetts-  MHI included

Weston-  (Essex County)    +37% Dem Swing
Norfolk- (Norfolk County)   +21% Dem Swing


Come on Atlas!!! We're still lacking a significant amount of data for wealthy areas in California, the Midwest, all of the South, and significant chunks of the Eastern seaboard including Metro DC and Philly, limited data on New York state.....

[NOVA Green]

In the long term, I think wealthy voters will continue to trend D

Yes, he was about the worst possible candidate for them.

True, but I think these places are trending D in the long term anyway.

I know you think that.  I know Eharding thinks that.  I struggle to see why, though.  There will ALWAYS be a high floor in these places for a Republican as long as the GOP is asking for more "pro-rich" policies than the Democrats are; do you honestly see that flipping?  Ever?  Even if you believe that the GOP is going full Trumpist in EVERY geographic area for decades (unlikely in my opinion, especially given that Trumpist GOPers tend to be older and in shrinking areas of the country, but whatever), there is at least as much evidence that the Democratic Party will continue to move to the left economically with millenials becoming more prominent in the party.

Because at some point, the anti-intellectual/professional vibes that are prevalent among the GOP's base and elected officials begin to outweigh the benefits of a lower tax bracket.

^^^

Most polls have shown that the wealthy are becoming more on liberal in economic issues (although a majority still hold conservative views on economic issues)

Also, the wealthy tend to be very socially liberal and are turned off by the anti-immigration, anti-professional/intellectual, anti-globalization, anti-gay marriage, and anti-science rhetoric coming from the GOP.

Many wealthy people don't mind paying an extra 3% in taxes if it means voting for candidates who align with them on social issues.

And many wealthy voters hold liberal economic views and don't support cutting social programs that help the poor, support increasing the minimum wage, etc. Also, some wealthy voters find the GOP's "deficit hawk" additude to be a turn-off. Many of these people support more infrastructure spending and government investment in the economy. For example, most major businesses are huge supporters of more infrastructure spending and government investment in the economy, which the GOP doesn't want. Many wealthy voters don't mind paying a 2%-3% in taxes if it means voting for candidates who align with them on most other issues.

Let's dispel with this fiction that all wealthy voters are economically conservative. A majority are, but there are still plenty on wealthy voters who hold liberal economic views.

But yes, the main reason why these wealthy communities swung so heavily D is because Trump was the nominee.

How did your community vote in '12 and '16 Non Swing Voter, and can you provide us with some election results and swings in '12 and '16 in NoVA?

Check out this link for 2016:  http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/elections/webreports/resu1116.pdf

Go to Hunter Mill district a few pages down.  These are some of the very wealthy areas of Fairfax County. As you can see, many of the precincts were about 2 to 1 for Clinton... pretty consistent or maybe slightly better than Fairfax County as a whole.  Also look at Dranesville.

Check it out in 2012: http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/elections/webreports/resu1112.pdf

Still went for Obama but Obama didn't get the kind of margins Clinton did.

Trump cratered in a lot of the wealthier areas.  Trump even lost some areas that the GOP has been winning for years like Great Falls..  In other words, Democrats pretty much held their margins in the more urban parts of Fairfax while Trump and the GOP in generally did much worse in the wealthy neighborhoods.  If I were Barbara Comstock I'd be sh*tting myself.

A few reasons I think Trump did particularly bad in these areas:

1) All of these areas have been trending Dem. for years.  Clinton was going to do better than Obama based on that fact alone.

2) The wealthy parts of Fairfax are actually getting pretty diverse at a rapid clip... lots of diverse lawyers and the like moving in... the extension of the silver metro line is making it more appealing to city types. 

3) Fairfax is very liberal on social issues like gay marriage and abortion.  The only issue that fits OK for Republicans here is foreign policy but Trump was a wild card on that anyways and Clinton is pretty hawkish, so Trump didn't really even have an advantage there.  His proposed tax cut also wasn't very thrilling for Fairfax County people because it arguably increased taxes for those in the 200-400K range, which is probably the bulk of the population in most of those precincts.

Thanks NonSwingVoter!

So several things that are a bit problematic----

1.) the Hunter Mill District is so large in terms of population, and effectively includes over 10% of the county population, a whopping 125k population and an MHI of $123.3k, which certainly puts it into a relatively upper income part of the country, even in an extremely expensive real estate market like Metro DC.

2.) The links you posted unfortunately appear to include same day voting, so it's a bit more problematic when 20-25% of the population voted absentee to drill it down the precinct level....

Maybe there's another location where this data is available, but otherwise we will need to extrapolate based solely on same-day voting.

So---- I took the liberty of pulling up the five wealthiest places in Fairfax County and then cross-referenced against precinct names based upon the links you provided for '12 and '16.

http://statisticalatlas.com/county/Virginia/Fairfax-County/Household-Income#figure/place

Fairfax County- Wealthiest Towns

A.) Great Falls- MHI $ 225k/Yr- Pop 16.3k

71% White, 16% Asian, 6% Latino

2012: (43.4 D- 55.5 R)    +12.1 R
2016: (49.3 D- 43.4 R)    + 5.9  D        (+18% D Swing)

B.) Floris--- MHI $204k/Yr-- Pop 8.5k

55% White, 30% Asian, 7% Latino, 3% African-American

2012: (55.3 D- 43.4 R)    +11.9 D
2016: (59.8 D- 34.5 R)    +25.3 D     (+13% Dem Swing)

C.) Clifton--- MHI $189k/Yr--- Pop 241

2012: (37.5 D- 61.3 R)   +23.8 R
2016: (39.8 D- 52.5 R)   +12.7 R   (+11% Dem Swing)

D. Crosspointe--- MHI $188k/Yr- Pop 6.0k

I couldn't find a match for this against precinct names listed on the report provided.... is this the same place as Crossroads or is there another precinct name that should be used?

E.) Wolf Trap--- MHI $187k/Yr---  Pop 16.7k

80% White, 12% Asian, 4% Latino

2012: (51.3 D- 47.5 R)   +3.8 D
2016: (56.9 D- 32.6 R)   +24.3 D    (+20% Dem Swing)

Any ideas on what's going on in these particular wealthy communities?

I will let others comment on your observations regarding as to the *why* of the swing, my goal was to more to narrow down and pluck down the numbers for the wealthiest communities in Fairfax.

[NOVA Green]

His proposed tax cut also wasn't very thrilling for Fairfax County people because it arguably increased taxes for those in the 200-400K range, which is probably the bulk of the population in most of those precincts.

This is a key point that should be recognized. There are actually very few wealthy people, most wealthy regions are actually UMC, as long as a progressive dem keeps tax rates reasonable inside the 30s range for those income brackets, social issues will still take precedent and the people there will vote D anyway. They can tax those making 10 mil + at 60% and they won't care because it doesn't concern them.

Exactly.  I (and most people I know) would gladly pay an extra 5K a year in taxes to make sure that Republicans aren't in office.  After itemizing deductions (which most people making over 200K a year do) the net impact of a 3 or 4% tax increase on money over 180K or so is not a big deal.  For Republicans to woo this group of voters they would need to propose deep cuts on taxes for the UMC... like something that will net $20K a year.  At that point I would consider voting for a moderate Republican. 

Of course they won't (and can't) do this because this is where the real tax money comes from (not from millionaires) and they need to pay for absurd military spending + Trump's wall.  I think we should go back to a system where those making $10 million + are taxed over 50%.  These people can clearly afford it.

Both of you have some compelling points----

1.) There aren't actually that many truly "wealthy" people if you solely use MHI as a barometer... Even adjusting for higher incomes in more expensive metro areas, much of that is channeled into ownership of expensive housing, which does not contribute to household income, although in terms of household net worth/assets there is obviously a major difference between those in the Upper Middle-Income bracket versus much of the rest of us..... Even someone selling their small older 3 bedroom ranch home in parts of OC can walk away with $350k in their pockets and buy a nice home out in the Mountains of the Rockies or Oregon and still have some extra cash to supplement their retirement.

2.) Agreed on increasing taxes for those making $10 Million + /Yr to 50%..... shoot this is significantly less than marginal tax rates for the wealthy under Republican President Eisenhower. Honestly, I think part of the reason for resentment of many WWC and small business owners against taxation policy over the past three to four decades is as much about the concept the big business and extremely wealthy individuals gaming the tax code, while many of these voters feel like they are getting the shaft and stuck with the bill.... This attitude transcends partisan affiliation.

I actually got a bigger tax cut under Obama than under George W. at that time just recently entering the ranks of the Middle-Class, and then the Republicans in Congress caused my Payroll taxes to go up significantly when they decided to sabotage the Social Security tax holiday for workers...

Pray tell what does UMC stand for?

[NOVA Green]

Ok---- a few more data points from Cali....

Basically, I ran numbers for places in California with > $150k/Yr MHI (Since basically in the Bay Area and SoCal, much less than that would fall more into a "Middle Class" setting in some of the most expensive housing markets in the US) and then attempted to pull up the top three locations that fell within that category.

Honestly, I thought the exercise would be easier, but unfortunately the difficulties of trying to match individual precincts to "places" combined with the reporting variations between counties provided a bit more difficult than I had imagined....

So NoVA rules only include places in Cali with > $150k MHI and I'm still trying to figure out how to obtain more detailed data for some of the places on the list.... Also, idk about swings for or against Trump---- more an interest in how wealthy people voted in various communities throughout the US, so this is not "the greatest swings towards Clinton list"....

Santa Clara County (Wealthiest three places)

1.) Monte Sereno----  MHI $ 239k/Yr---- Pop 3.4k

(82% White, 12% Asian, 3% Latino, 1% African-American)

2012: (54 D- 44 R)    +10 D
2016: (65 D- 29 R)    +36 D    (+26% Dem Swing)

2.) Loyola---- Uninc---- MHI $238k/Yr

* Can't locate precinct results---- anyone want to help???

3.) Saratoga--- MHI $ 197k/Yr--- Pop 30.3k

(48% White, 45% Asian, 4% Latino)

* Asian-Americans: (Chinese-Americans constitute 20.6% of the population, Indian-Americans 14.3%, Korean-Americans 5.9%, Japanese-Americans 5.2%)

2012: (59 D- 39 R)    +20 D
2016: (69 D- 26 R)    +33 D         (+13% Dem Swing)


Los Angeles County- (Three Wealthiest Places)

1.) Rolling Hills-  MHI $ 227k/Yr-  Pop 1.6k

(68.0% White, 20.1% Asian, 4.4% Latino, 2.1% African-American)

Election Results: Unknown???

2.) Palo Verdes Estates- MHI $ 203k/Yr- Pop 13.5k

Election Results: Unknown

3.) Manhattan Beach- MHI $ 178k/Yr- Pop 35.3k

(77.4% White, 9.1% Asian, 8.7% Latino)

2012: (50 D- 48 R)    +2 D
2016: (61 D- 32 R)    +29 D     (+27% Dem Swing)----- These are not official results and likely with provisional ballots will have a higher Dem swing

4.) Malibu--- MHI $169k/Yr--- Pop 12.8k

(82% White, 7% Latino, 6% Asian, 1% African-American)

Election Results: Unknown

Alameda County- Only one community meets the > $150k/Yr MHI threshold

1.) Piedmont-   MHI $ 247k/Yr--- Pop 10.9k

(70% White, 19% Asian, 6% Latino)

2012: (75 D- 23 R)    +52 D
2016: (84 D- 11 R)    + 73 D    (+21% Dem Swing)


Marin County----

1.) Kentfield- Uninc Marin--- MHI $ 247k/Yr- Pop 6.5k

(88.4% White, 5.3% Latino, 2.3% Asian)

Election Results: Unknown--- I do have 2012 results, but not 2016 results...

2.) Sleepy Hollow- MHI $ 221k/Yr- Pop 2.7k

(83.3% White, 6.5% Asian, 3.4% Latino)

Election Results: Unknown

3.) Ross- MHI $ 201k/Yr- Pop 2.1k

2012: (57 D- 41 R)    +16 D
2016: (71 D- 20 R)    +51 D    (+35% Dem Swing)

Anyone want to fill in the blanks for Loyola in Santa Clara, the places listed in LA County and Marin County?

I can also add the top MHI communities in Orange and Contra Costa County if anyone has easy access to these numbers, since unfortunately, I could not locate the data on publicly available websites....

There are a few other counties in Cali where I will try to track down the data to meet the NoVA criteria for "wealthy towns" in Cali....

Cue RI or one of resident Cali experts with access to more easily accessible data than myself...

[NOVA Green]

Compiled some SoCal numbers. Unfortunately, too lazy to put in demographics. Out of the 27 six-figure cities in SoCal, Hillary won 18 compared to Obama's 8 in 2012.


Hidden Hills, Los Angeles County - MHI $250k/Yr - Pop 2.3k

2012: Romney  55.1 - 43.2
2016: Clinton  58.1 - 36.8  (+33.1% Dem swing)

Rolling Hills, Los Angeles County - MHI $223k/Yr - Pop 1.7k

2012: Romney  71.7 - 26.6
2016: Trump  58.8 - 35.2  (+21.5% Dem swing)

Palos Verdes Estates, Los Angeles County - MHI $159k/Yr - Pop 13.4k

2012: Romney  61.7 - 36.8
2016: Clinton  49.6 - 44.1  (+30.4% Dem swing)

San Marino, Los Angeles County - MHI $154k/Yr - Pop 13.1k

2012: Romney  58 - 40.4
2016: Clinton  54.9 - 39.4  (+33.1% Dem swing)

Rolling Hills Estates, Los Angeles County - MHI $151k/Yr - Pop 8k

2012: Romney  58.8 - 38.9
2016: Clinton  49.2 - 44.4  (+24.8% Dem swing)

Villa Park, Orange County - MHI $150k/Yr - Pop 5.8k

2012: Romney  73.5 - 24.9
2016: Trump  62.8 - 31.4  (+17.2% Dem swing)

La Cañada Flintridge, Los Angeles County - MHI $148k/Yr - Pop 20.2k

2012: Romney  53.6 - 44.7
2016: Clinton  57 - 37.1  (+28.8% Dem swing)

Malibu, Los Angeles County - MHI $133k/Yr - Pop 12.7k

2012: Obama  57.6 - 39.9
2016: Clinton  64.4 - 30.1  (+16.6% Dem swing)

Manhattan Beach, Los Angeles County - MHI $132k/Yr - Pop 35k

2012: Obama  50.3 - 47.6
2016: Clinton  62.7 - 30.9  (+29.1% Dem swing)

La Habra Heights, Los Angeles County - MHI $127k/Yr - Pop 5.3k

2012: Romney  64.5 - 32.9
2016: Trump  55.7 - 38.9  (+14.7% Dem swing)

Calabasas, Los Angeles County - MHI $118k/Yr - Pop 22.8k

2012: Obama  54.8 - 43.2
2016: Clinton  62.5 - 31.2  (+18.7% Dem swing)

Bradbury, Los Angeles County - MHI $118k/Yr - Pop 932

2012: Romney  53 - 44.8
2016: Trump  47.9 - 47.1  (+16.4% Dem swing)

Rancho Palos Verdes, Los Angeles County - MHI $116k/Yr - Pop 41.5k

2012: Romney  53 - 44.8
2016: Clinton  52.9 - 41.8  (+19.3% Dem swing)

Yorba Linda, Orange County - MHI $115k/Yr - Pop 63.5k

2012: Romney  68.2 - 29.7
2016: Trump  59 - 35  (+14.5% Dem swing)

Eastvale, Riverside County - MHI $115k/Yr - Pop 53.4k

2012: Obama  55.9 - 42.3
2016: Clinton  55.3 - 40.1  (+1.6% Dem swing)

Del Mar, San Diego County - MHI $114k/Yr - Pop 4.1k

2012: Obama  53.2 - 45
2016: Clinton  61.8 - 32.4  (+21.3% Dem swing)

Westlake Village, Los Angeles County - MHI $113k/Yr - Pop 8.2k

2012: Romney 52.1 - 46.1
2016: Clinton  53.6 - 41.3  (+18.2% Dem swing)

Indian Wells, Riverside County - MHI $111k/Yr - Pop 4.9k

2012: Romney 73.2 - 25.8
2016: Trump  65.6 - 31.2  (+13.1% Dem swing)

Newport Beach, Orange County - MHI $109k/Yr - Pop 84.4k

2012: Romney 65.8 - 32.3
2016: Trump  54  - 39.9  (+19.4% Dem swing)

Agoura Hills, Los Angeles County - MHI $108k/Yr - Pop 20.3k

2012: Obama 53.1 - 44.6
2016: Clinton  59.6 - 35.2  (+16% Dem swing)

Rancho Santa Margarita, Orange County - MHI $104k/Yr - Pop 47.7k

2012: Romney  60.9 - 37.1
2016: Trump  52.6 - 40.1  (+11.3% Dem swing)

Moorpark, Ventura County - MHI $103k/Yr - Pop 34.1k

2012: Romney  51.3 - 46.8
2016: Clinton  49.6 - 41.6  (+12.5% Dem swing)

Chino Hills, San Bernardino County - MHI $102k/Yr - Pop 74.7k

2012: Romney  51.9 - 46.3
2016: Clinton  49.8 - 45.4  (+10.1% Dem swing)

Hermosa Beach, Los Angeles County - MHI $102k/Yr - Pop 19.4k

2012: Obama  55.6 - 40.8
2016: Clinton  64.2 - 27.6  (+21.7% Dem swing)

Walnut, Los Angeles County - MHI $101k/Yr - Pop 29.2k

2012: Obama  57.8 - 40.1
2016: Clinton  62 - 33.1  (+11.2% Dem swing)

Thousand Oaks, Ventura County - MHI $100k/Yr - Pop 125.6k

2012: Romney  51.7 - 46.1
2016: Clinton  50.8 - 41.3  (+15.1% Dem swing)

Laguna Niguel, Orange County - MHI $100k/Yr - Pop 62.8k

2012: Romney  57.8 - 40.5
2016: Trump  47.8 - 46.1  (+15.6% Dem swing)

You rock!!!!!

Figured one of our resident California experts would have some of the data at their fingertips....

I'll pull the Demographics here in a bit, since especially in Metro areas it helps potentially provide some additional context/understanding for shifts within different ethnic groups, particularly in the context of the '16 election, where certainly it appears that Asian-Americans in particular swung even heavier towards the Democratic Party than in the past few election cycles, not only in wealthy communities, but also in working and middle class communities as well, quite possibly as a result of some of rhetoric from the Republican Party Presidential candidate.....

So I'll try to update the list, now that we have an extremely large data dump from SoCal....

Still curious about how wealthy communities in Texas, Georgia, and Florida voted/swung, or for that matter anywhere in even the "Old South" as opposed to the "New South".... Still lacking data from the Midwest, my Atlas peeps.

Crowd-sourcing works!!!!

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- so now we are definitely seeing some pretty clear swings among wealthy voters in the three states of the Pacific Coast proper (California, Oregon, & Washington).

One could potentially make a reasonable argument that wealthy voters on the West Coast are heavily concentrated in a handful of extremely Liberal Metro Areas (Seattle, Portland, Bay Area, LA/Orange, and San Diego) so potentially the 15-20% + Democratic swings are more representative of broader trends within the Metro Areas.

Within the West Coast, it appears that these swings transcend race/ethnicity, since this is observed in both wealthier places with large Asian-American Populations, as well as predominately Anglo populations.... haven't drilled down the numbers on Cali that Interlocuter provided yet, but am pretty sure some of these wealthier SoCal communities have a decent Latino population as well.

I took the liberty of pulling some numbers for the five wealthiest places in Metro Houston to see if there was a similar pattern that we have observed in the West Coast, and apparently in certain parts of New England as well (Data is still too limited on the Midwest) and we have absolutely no data from any of the former states of the old confederacy....

Metro Houston (Five Wealthiest--- all located within Harris County and Houston (?)

1.) Bunker Hill Village--- MHI >$250k+ / Yr- Pop 3.7k

(76% White, 13% Asian, 8% Latino)

2012: (17 D- 81 R)        +64 R
2016: (30 D- 63 R)        +33 R       (+31% Dem Swing)

2.) Hunters Creek Village--- MHI $242.7k/Yr--- Pop 4.5k

(83% White, 7% Asian, 5% Latino, 3% African-American)

2012: (19 D- 80 R)       +61 R
2016: (28 D- 65 R)       +37 R         (+24% Dem Swing)

3.) Piney Point Village--- MHI $229.3k/Yr---- Pop 3.2k

(82% White, 10% Asian, 6% Latino)

2012: (17 D- 82 R)      +65 R
2016: (27 D- 66 R)      +39 R       (+24% Dem Swing)

4.) West University Place---- MHI $205.1k/Yr--- Pop 15.0k

(83% White, 9% Asian, 5% Latino)

2012: (34 D- 64 R)     +30 R
2016: (50 D- 42 R)     +8 D        (+38% Dem swing)

5.) Hilshire Village---- MHI $ 181.2k/Yr--- Pop 717

(83% White, 10% Asian, 4% Latino)

2012: (23 D- 73 R)      +50 R
2016: (32 D- 60 R)      +28 R     (+22% Dem Swing)

So far, these numbers are actually relatively comparable to dramatic swings among wealthier voters that have been observed in the West Coast and New England, perhaps even slightly more so....

@ BaldEagle1991 and @ Indy Texas---- Either of y'all have the '12 and '16 numbers easily available at your fingertips for Tejas?

I can keep crunching parts of Metro Houston, and possibly elsewhere in the great Lone Star state, but figured it might save some duplication of labor if this is data either of you have already pulled in one form or another to save the combing through precinct maps, results, census block tract data, etc....

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- pulled some numbers for #6-15 wealthiest places in Metro Houston....

I will skip Fort Bend County for the moment, since there's a bit of extra work involved shifting between county precinct maps, census tract info for "defined" places, and crunching county level election returns by precinct.....

Wealthiest places in Metro-Houston (#6-#15)

#6- Bellaire- (Harris County) - MHI $ 161.3k/Yr- Pop 17.2k

(73% White, 15% Asian, 9% Latino)

2012: (35 D- 62 R)      +27 % R
2016: (50 D- 43 R)      +7 D     (+34% Dem Swing)

#7- Spring Valley Village- (Harris County)- MHI $153.8k/Yr- Pop 3.9k

(85% White, 9% Asian, 4% Latino)

2012: (21 D- 77 R)      +56% R
2016: (29 D- 64 R)      +35% R     (+21% Dem Swing)

#8- Weston Lakes- (Fort Bend County)---- TBD

#9- Southside Place- (Harris County)--- MHI $ 145.8k/Yr-  Pop 1.7k

(73% White, 14% Asian, 10% Latino, 1% African-American)

2012: (37 D- 59 R)     +22% R
2016: (54 D- 40 R)     +14% D     (+36% Dem Swing)

#10- Fulshear- (Fort Bend County)- TBD

#11- Greatwood- (Fort Bend County)- TBD

#12- Cinco Ranch- (Fort Bend County)- TBD

#13- Taylor Lake Village- (Harris County)- MHI $ 137.4k- Pop 3.6k

(87% White, 8% Latino, 3% Asian)

* Here is the first place in Harris County thus far where the census boundaries don't fully overlap with precinct boundaries, but it should still give us a reasonable idea about what's going on in the wealthiest part of SE Harris County (Around the Clear Lake Area)

2012: (26 D- 71 R)     +45% R
2016: (31 D- 62 R)     +31% R    (+14% Dem Swing)

#14- Sienna Plantation- (Fort Bend County)- TBD

#15- Tiki Island- (Galveston County) -TBD

So, at least thus far in the wealthiest parts of Harris County, we are so far seeing swings extremely similar to those that we have seen in the wealthiest parts of the cities of the West Coast...

The swings appear to be slightly lower in the heaviest Anglo communities, with the exception of the area around Rice Village (West University Place)...

It is worthy to note that the largest wealthy communities by population, not only swung hardest towards Clinton, but also actually flipped (Look at West University Place and Bellaire)....

This should obviously be a major concern for Harris County Republicans, and viewed as a major opportunity for Democrats in Harris County, since wealthy voters are not entirely concentrated in a handful of precincts, but quite likely these types of swings reflect patterns throughout the most Republican parts of the City of Houston proper, and possibly to a slightly lesser extent swings in unincorporated areas within the County....

Any of our resident Texas experts want to jump in on these results thus far?

[NOVA Green]

#1, 3, 5, 7. The Villages, as we call them, are a handful of very tiny independent cities surrounded by the City of Houston - Bunker Hill Village, Hilshire Village, Hunters Creek Village, Piney Point Village, Spring Valley Village. They incorporated as separate entities in the mid-20th century to avoid city annexation (I'll let you fill in the blanks as to what political issues of the 1950s and 1960s might have incited them to do that.) They are, along with the Memorial area of Houston, sometimes referred to as the Memorial Villages.

This is the epicenter of Country Club Republicanism in Harris County (analogous to Dallas' Park Cities). The area is mostly in the 7th congressional district, once represented by George H. W. Bush, and currently represented by John Abney Culberson, whose politically established family has a county named after them.

It's not a big shock that these areas swung significantly to Hillary. However, many of the people who live here are relatively socially conservative (lots of Baptists and traditionalist Episcopalians) and either work in the energy industry or inherited money that was made in the energy industry. So that, combined with the general failure of Hillary to do quite as well with upscale whites as she wanted/needed, might explain why this swing wasn't bigger.

#4. West University Place is, as its name suggests, in southwest Houston near Rice University and the Texas Medical Center. While the Villages tend to mostly be older money made in energy and banking, West University Place is increasingly attracting the white collar, well-credentialed "knowledge economy" workers who are increasingly being monopolized by the Democrats. This is the habitat of doctors, surgeons, consultants, software professionals, and professors.

This neighborhood is well-personified by its state representative, Sarah Davis. A pro-choice pro-gay marriage Republican who often votes with the Democrats, Davis is a corporate lawyer in her 30s who has dogs instead of children.

Thanks Indy Texas for explanations as to the swings the "Villages" and also in West University Place/Bellaire.

Basically this covers the wealthiest "places" within Harris County, excepting several parts of the City of Houston, which I will try to see if I can overlap precinct boundaries with census tracts....

#17 Wealthiest in Metro-Houston-The Woodlands (Montgomery County)- MHI $106.3k/Yr- Pop 101.4k

(76% White, 14% Latino, 5% Asian, 2% African-American)

Occupations: 20.3% Management, 15.0% Sales, 10.4% Admin, 8.5% Business, 7.5% Education, 5.2% Health Care, 4.3% Engineering.

Industries: Professional 11.3%, Health Care 10.8%, Manufacturing 10.2%, Education 9.9%, Retail 9.7%, Oil, Gas, & Mining 7%

2012: (22.1% D- 76.2% R)    +54.1% R
2016: (30.4% D- 63.3% R)    +32.9% R    (+21.2% Dem Swing)

This is obviously a pretty big deal, since if you look at the Woodlands precincts in Montgomery County between '12 and '16 it went from a +24.2k Republican total vote margin in '12 to only a +15.5k Republican total vote margin in '16.

Needless to say, if this trend continues in 2020, this would not be a good sign for Republican Party dominance in Texas at the Presidential level, since in theory the managers & engineers working at the new Exxon Campus, and other highly educated and skilled professionals in an Exurban setting have long been a monolithic basis for the Modern Texas Republican Party.

# 24- Oak Ridge North- (Montgomery County)- MHI $96.8k- Pop 3.1k

Right across from the I-45--- this appears to include some "rural" areas not part of the statistical census tract, but still we have an idea of what happened between '12 and '16.

(88% White, 7% Latino)

2012: (20.0 D- 78.2 R)     +58.2 R
2016: (22.6 D- 71.4 R)     +48.8 R    (+9.4% Dem Swing)


#18 Wealthiest in Metro- Sugar Land- MHI $ 104.7k/Yr- Pop 80.8k

(45% White, 35% Asian, 10% Latino, 8 % African-American)
(14% Indian-Americans, 10% Chinese-Americans, 3% Pakistani-Americans, 2% Vietnamese-Americans)

Occupations: 16% Management, 13% Sales, 13% Admin, 8% Business, 7% Education, 6% Health Care, 6% Engineering, 6% Computers & Math)

Relative Occupations: Highest variance with engineering, computers & Math, and Science

2012: (38.3 D- 61.1 R)    +22.8% R
2016: (46.9 D- 46.8 R)    +0.1% D       (+22.9% Dem Swing)

Not a good sign at all for Texas Republicans in 2020.... note that Sugar Land actually had a significantly lower margin for Clinton than Fort Bend County at large.....

[NOVA Green]

In Tennessee, I would look for Brentwood and Franklin in Williamson County and Belle Meade in Davidson County.

From eyeballing it, Trump seems to have gotten about 70% of the two-party vote in Brentwood (compared to 75-80% for Romney), about 65% in Franklin, compared to maybe 70% for Romney (but Franklin has some amount of an urban core of its own that was significantly closer, albeit still won by Trump).

Belle Meade had a massive swing, from Romney winning the two-party vote 78-22 to Trump only winning it 62-38.  Granted, third party votes increased from 17 to 113 (all but six of the 113 for Johnson) over that time period.  I can't seem to find the precinct data for the 2015 Nashville mayoral race, but I remember hearing that it voted 90% for David Fox in the technically non-partisan race.

Thanks ExtremeRepublican!

So--- I ran some numbers on Brentwood from '12 to '16 to look at swings, but although "where exactly is Brentwood" appears to be a bit of an issue had to rely on 2016 precinct maps combined with statisticalatlas.com data and then try to match against 2012/2016 polling locations... but still we do have some data points to work with despite that....

Brentwood- TN---- (3rd wealthiest place in Metro Nashville)---  MHI $ 134.4k/Yr--- Pop 38.2k

(87% White, 5% Asian, 3% Black, 2-3% Latino)

Occupations: 22% Management, 15% Sales, 10% Business, 9% Health Care, 8% Admin.

Relative Occupations in order of labor force %: Science, Legal, Mgmt, Business, Entertainment, Health Care, Computers & Math.

2012: (25.2% D- 75.0% R)      +49.8% R
2016: (32.1% D- 60.2% R)      +28.1% R    (+21.7% Dem Swing)

So, interestingly enough the data that we are starting to see from even heavily Republican states appear to indicate a +20% Dem swing....

Do we have any data that any of our Atlasians can suggest pulling up in places like Georgia and Florida, wealthy parts of New England, wealthy suburbs of Ohio, Illinois and Michigan?

I sense a potential Masters Thesis brewing for one of our intrepid Atlasians willing to do additional legwork and research on this topic....

[NOVA Green]

In Tennessee, I would look for Brentwood and Franklin in Williamson County and Belle Meade in Davidson County.

From eyeballing it, Trump seems to have gotten about 70% of the two-party vote in Brentwood (compared to 75-80% for Romney), about 65% in Franklin, compared to maybe 70% for Romney (but Franklin has some amount of an urban core of its own that was significantly closer, albeit still won by Trump).

Belle Meade had a massive swing, from Romney winning the two-party vote 78-22 to Trump only winning it 62-38.  Granted, third party votes increased from 17 to 113 (all but six of the 113 for Johnson) over that time period.  I can't seem to find the precinct data for the 2015 Nashville mayoral race, but I remember hearing that it voted 90% for David Fox in the technically non-partisan race.

I want to thank you for having the privilege of living in the great Volunteer State, where your SoS office actually posts precinct level returns for the entire state on their official website---- totally awesome, and I wish more states would learn from that leadership and ease of availability to this data.

County level precinct maps are a bit more hit and miss, since there is county-to-county variance in detailed maps, but for better or worse, larger concentrations of wealthy Americans are a bit more likely to be clustered in Metro areas and Shelby, Davidson, & Williamson Counties all have maps available on their respective websites....

So I pulled about some additional numbers for Tennessee to see what wealthy voters did in 2012 and 2016....

So to go back to Metro Nashville----

#1 Wealthiest-  Belle Meade (Davidson County- MHI $202.1k/Yr-- Pop 3.0k)

(98.3% White, 0.8% Latino)

2012: (22.0% D- 77.1% R)       +55.1% R
2016: (35.5% D- 58.0% R)       +22.5% R       (+33% Dem Swing)

#2 Wealthiest- Forest Hills (Davidson County- MHI $ 174.5k/Yr-  Pop 4.9k)

(93.6% White, 1.7% Latino, 1.4% Asian-American)

2012: (32.0% D- 67.0% R)     +35.0% R
2016: (43.1% D- 51.2% R)     +8.1% R           (+27% Dem Swing)

#3 Brentwood---- Covered Above in my preceding post

#4 Shackle Island (Sumner County)---- Not able to obtain bcs of precinct maps

#5 Oak Hill--- ( Davidson County---- MHI $110.7k/Yr--- Pop 4.6k)

(96.2% White, 1.7% Asian, 1.5% African-American)

2012: (34.7% D- 64.0% R)        +29.3% R
2016: (43.4% D- 50.7% R)        +7.3%  R       (+22% Dem Swing)

Wow--- so we have two of the five wealthiest places in Metro Nashville where Trump barely cleared 50% of the vote!!!!

So, here's a bonus number I pulled for Metro Memphis:

#1 Wealthiest- Germantown- (Shelby County- MHI $ 109.7k/Yr- Pop 39.1k)

(83.8% White, 6.7% Asian, 5.1% African-American, 3.6% Latino)

2012: (21.5% D- 77.5 % R)          +56.0% R
2016: (29.8% D- 69.2% R)           +39.4 % R      (+17% Dem Swing)

Also, a total aside, but anyone from Tennessee or our resident experts on Southern politics have an explanation as to why wealthy White voters in Nashville appear to be more receptive to Democratic Presidential candidates than those in Memphis?

[NOVA Green]

It would be interesting to look at some individual towns in DuPage and McHenry Counties in Illinois. Two new-money suburban counties. McHenry is extremely red but probably swung hard against Trump. DuPage is more of a swing county but also swung hard left.

I'd especially look at Oak Brook and Barrington. Oak Brook voted 80-85% McCain, and Barrington also voted overwhelmingly for him. Trump probably fared far worse.

Maybe I'll get some time this week and try to pull those numbers together, but no guarantees.

So.... five wealthiest places in DuPage....

1.)  Wayne---       MHI $171.4k/Yr
2.)  Hinsdale--      MHI $161.7k/Yr
3.)  Oak Brook--   MHI $135.9k/Yr
4.)  Burr Ridge--   MHI $115.3k/Yr
5.)  Naperville---  MHI $108.3k/Yr


McHenry:

1.) Trout Valley---       MHI $ 124.1k/Yr
2.) Lakewood----         MHI $ 123.9k/ Yr
3.) Barrington Hls---    MHI $119.6k/Yr
4.) Prairie Grove          MHI $ 113.8k/ Yr
5.) Algonquin---          MHI  $103.4k/Yr

Now it does appear that there are places in Lake and Cook County that would also fall into the "wealthy town/township category" to represent the great state of Illinois....

Looking forward to whatever numbers you might be able to pull....

[NOVA Green]

So, decided to dip my toes into Dallas-Fort Worth wealthy areas in Texas and pull a few precinct level numbers.

Tarrant County--- Texas.

Wealthiest places---

1.) Westlake- MHI- $233.8k/Yr- Pop 1.1k

(91% White, 5% Latino, 3% Asian)

This one's a bit weird bcs the precinct boundaries don't cleanly overlap, and there is also a sliver in Denton County, but should give us an idea....

2012: (8.9% D- 90.4% R)         +81.5% R
2016: (21.7% D- 74.3% R)       +52.6% R     (+29% D Swing)

2.) Westover Hills- MHI $205.8k/Yr- Pop 0.7k

(98.8% White)

2012: (14.1% D- 84.9% R)-       +70.8% R
2016: (17.9% D- 78.6% R)-       +60.7% R    (+10% D Swing)

3.) Southlake--- MHI $173.0k/Yr---- Pop 27.0k

(85% White, 6% Asian, 5% Latino, 2% Black)

2012: (21.7% D- 83.8% R)     +62.1% R
2016: (29.7% D- 65.4% R)     +35.7% R    (+26% D Swing)

4.) Colleyville--- MHI $153.0k/Yr--- Pop 23.5k

(79% White, 11% Asian, 8% Latino, 2% Black)

2012: (19.1% D- 75.3% R)      +56.2% R
2016: (29.2% D- 70.0% R)      +40.8% R     (+15% D Swing)

5.) Trophy Club---- MHI $124.6k/Yr--- Pop 9.0k

Mostly located in Denton County.... Skip

6.) Flower Mound--- MHI $120.9k/Yr--- Pop 66.5 k

Mostly located in Denton County.... Skip

7.) Dalworthington Gardens---- MHI $ 116.0k/Yr---- Pop 2.0k

(91% White, 4% Asian, 2% Latino, 1% Black)

2012: (22.2% D- 74.8% R)         +52.6% R
2016: (26.3% D- 68.9% R)         +42.6% R    (+10% D Swing)

8.) Keller---- MHI $113.6k/Yr---  Pop 40.9k

(85% White, 6% Latino, 4% Asian, 2% Black)

2012: (21.2% D- 76.3% R)----     +55.1 R
2016: (25.0% D- 69.8% R)---      +44.8 R      (+10% Dem Swing)


I'll try to pull some additional numbers for elsewhere in DFW as time permits....

Southlake and Colleyville appear to stand out, not sure to what extent the larger Asian-American population is a factor, or it is more industries/occupational categories.... Some of our resident Texan experts might have some insights on that one....

Needless to say Tarrant with 670k votes is an obvious potential swing county, if the Dems have any hope of winning a Statewide election in Texas....

2012: (41.4% D- 57.1% R)    + 15.7% R
2016: (43.1% D- 51.7% R)    +8.6% R       (+7% Dem Swing)

The reality that Trump was barely able to clear 50% in '16, should be a giant warning sign for all Texas Republicans, and cause a dramatic amount of anxiety and quivering in their boots, when they take their wife out dancing doing the classic Texas Two-Step....

[NOVA Green]

Collins County Texas---  MHI $ 82.8k/Yr--- Pop 811.3k

(62.3% White, 14.6% Latino, 11.6% Asian, 8.6% Black)

2012:  (33.4% D- 64.9% R)     +31.5% R
2016:  (38.9% D- 55.6% R)     +16.7% R    (+14.8% D Swing)

Top Five wealthiest places in Collins County:

1.) Parker---- MHI $125.7k---- Pop 3.9k

(69% White, 13% Asian, 11% Latino, 6% Black)

2012: (21.1% D- 77.8% R)     +56.7% R
2016: (28.0% D- 66.1% R)     +38.1% R       (+18.6% Dem Swing)

2.) Prosper---  MHI $118.3k--- Pop 11.0k

(80.2% White, 9.0% Latino, 6.8% Black, 3.3% Asian)

2012: (20.7% D- 78.2% R)      +57.5% R
2016: (20.5% D- 74.5% R)      +54.0% R    (+3.5% Dem Swing)

* Note Prosper has a Denton/Collins split, and this is only election results for the Collins County part of the statistical place.

Also, it appears that there were some precinct changes between '12 and '16, and not having access to the '12 maps, there is a chance that there are some distortions in the numbers as a result.

Comments: This may be one of the few "wealthiest places" where the Democratic share of the vote decreased between '12 and '16 (Although there still appears to be a marginal Democratic swing).

3.) Lucas---- MHI $ 118.2k---- Pop 6.5k

(92.3% White, 3.9% Latino, 2.9% Asian)

2012: (18.1% D- 80.3% R)      +62.2% R
2016: (21.9% D- 70.9% R)      +49.0% R     (+13.2% Dem Swing)

Comments: The "Whitest" top five wealthy places in Collins, some increase in the Dem vote, but mainly a relative collapse in the Republican vote with 1/10 voters in the County not voting for Trump who supported Romney in 2012.

4.) Murphy---- MHI $ 118.2k/Yr--- Pop 18.4k

(54.9% White, 26.1% Asian, 11.2% Black, 6.0% Latino)

2012: (36.1% D- 62.3% R)    +26.2% R
2016: (42.8% D- 50.9% R)    +8.1% R      (+18.1% Dem Swing)

Notes: It appears that there was a precinct added between '12 and '16. See notes for Prosper above.

Comments: The most ethnically diverse of the five wealthiest places in Collins County, with an extremely high percentage of Asian-Americans (10% of the total population is Vietnamese-Americans, 8% Indian-Americans, and 4% Pakistani-Americans). Again, this reinforces the trend that we have seen elsewhere in areas with large Vietnamese-American populations in particular.

5.) Frisco---- MHI $108.3k/Yr--- Pop 123.7k

(66.6% White- 12.4% Latino, 10.3% Asian, 7.1% Black)

2012: (32.9% D- 65.6% R)       +32.7% R
2016: (41.2% D- 52.7% R)       +11.5% R     (+21.2% Dem Swing)

Notes: There appears to have been a precinct added between '12 and '16. Frisco is split between Denton and Collins County, and these election results only include the Collins County segment.

Comments: One of the fastest growing cities in the United States between 2000 and 2017, if not the fastest growing city in some of those years.

The numbers for Frisco in particular, should be extremely worrying for Texas Republicans, considering that it is the 3rd largest city mostly contained within Collins County, and is Whiter and wealthier than Plano or McKinney....

There has been discussion on multiple other threads regarding the potential future of the Democratic Party at a Presidential level within Texas, shifting demographics etc, and where there might be significant changes, but it's pretty dang clear looking at Murphy and Frisco in Collins County, where 33.3% of the Population is <18 years old, that these types of dramatic electoral shifts could quickly move Collins County into a solid "purple" zone and even quite possibly a lean-Democratic mode by 2024, unless the national Republican Party readjusts their messaging and policy platforms and positions.

Any of y'all from Texas/Tejas, or those with more detailed knowledge of Texas politics and demographics than myself, want to chime in on Collins County? Seen some chatter over the past week on a few other threads about Metro DFW, and Denton/Tarrant/Collins, so here's an additional data-set to throw into the mix....

[NOVA Green]

Denton County---- Texas---- MHI $74.2k/Yr--- Pop 688k

(63.6% White, 18.1% Latino, 8.4% Black, 6.9% Asian)

2012: (33.3% Dem- 64.9% Rep)     +31.6% Rep
2016: (37.1% Dem- 57.1% Rep)     +20.0% Rep   (+11.6% Dem Swing)


Wealthiest places....

1.) Westlake---- Split precinct, data unavailable,.... MHI $233.8k, Pop 1.1k

2.) Southlake--- Mostly located in Tarrant county. small sliver of ~300 voters located in Denton.

Denton portions:

2012: (23.2% Dem-- 76.1% Rep)   +52.9% Rep
2016: (28.7% Dem-- 68.5% Rep)    +39.8% Rep    (+13.1% Dem Swing)

3.) Lantana----  MHI $ 137.3k---- Pop 7.8k

(75.5% White, 13.1% Latino, 3.8% Black, 2.9% Asian)

2012: (20.6% Dem- 78.5% Rep)      +57.9% Rep
2016: (25.2% Dem- 71.3% Rep)      +46.1% Rep     (+11.8% Dem Swing)

4.) Highland Village--- MHI $129.7k---  Pop 15.4k

(87.5% White, 5.5% Latino, 2.9% Asian, 2.0% Black)

2012: (23.6% Dem- 75.2% Rep)     +51.6% Rep
2016: (28.5% Dem- 67.2% Rep)     +38.7% Rep    (+12.9% Dem Swing)

5.) Double Oak--- MHI $125.2k--- Pop 2.9k

(88.4% White, 5.9% Latino, 1.6% Black, 1.2% Asian)

2012: (17.0% Dem- 81.4% Rep)      +64.4% Rep
2016: (21.2% Dem- 74.5% Rep)      +53.3% Rep     (+11.1% Dem Swing)

6.) Trophy Club--- MHI $ 124.6k/Yr----  Pop 9.0k

(86.3% White, 5.6% Latino, 3.1% Asian, 1.6% Black)

2012: (20.5% Dem-  78.3% Rep)     +57.8% Rep
2016: (25.2% Dem-  71.0% Rep)     +45.8% Rep    (+12.0% Dem Swing)

7.) Flower Mound--- MHI $120.9k---- Pop 66.5k

(78.4% White, 8.6% Latino, 7.6% Asian, 3.3% Black)

2012: (26.1% Dem- 72.3% Rep)     +46.2% Rep
2016: (32.9% Dem- 62.0% Rep)     +29.1% Rep     (+17.1% Dem Swing)

So overall, it looks like the wealthiest places in Denton swung even harder than the county writ large... obviously these numbers out of Flower Mound should be on the Republican radar, since it is one of the largest cities based solely within the county, and accounts alone for 10% of the total county votes.

Basically between 2012 and 2016 Republican Pres Margins went from +15k to +9k in Flower Mound alone.

Is this solely a one-off fluke, or will relatively White and Wealthy parts of Denton continue to trend Democratic in 2020 or beyond?

[NOVA Green]

Williamson County- Texas----  MHI $71.8k/Yr-  Pop 441k

(63.1% White, 23.1% Latino, 6.3% Black, 5.1% Asian)

2012: (37.8% D- 59.2% R)       +21.4% R
2016: (41.6% D- 51.3% R)       +9.7% R     (+11.7 Dem Swing)

So now that we've spent some time in a few of the wealthiest places in Metro Houston and DFW, I thought it might be interesting to move down into Central Texas, to see what's going on in a fast growing County North of Austin, with a significant tech sector....

Obviously if the Dems can come close to flipping Williamson, this could well represent major problems for the Republican Party going forward, in an overwhelmingly urban/suburban state, despite the entrenched Republican advantage in most of rural and small town Texas....

Wealthiest Places in Williamson County---

1.) Brushy Creek---  MHI $98.5k/Yr---- Pop 23.9k

(67.0% White, 13.0% Latino, 11.0% Asian, 5.8% Black)

2012: (40.4% D- 56.3% R)        +15.9% R
2016: (46.4% D- 44.1% R)        +2.5% D      (+18.4% Dem Swing)

If we look at the wealthiest precinct, with an MHI of ~$110k/Yr and is 20% Asian-American, we see it shift from 2012: (56-41 R) to (43-47 D) in 2016....

If we go the precinct with the highest percentage of Whites (81%) and an MHI of "only" $98k/Yr it was in 2012: (61-36 R) and went (48-43 R) in '16.

So the swings appear to be similar here, even looking at relative income and ethnicity....

2.) Serenda--- MHI $93.7k/Yr-   Pop 1.2k

(93.0% White, 7.0% Latino)

It's a split precinct, where the majority of voters are in a neighboring precinct. I could pull the numbers for that precinct, but not sure how informative that data might be.

3.) Cedar Park---- MHI $77.4k/Yr---- Pop 54.9k

(68.4% White, 17.0% Latino, 6.8% Asian, 5.0% Black)

2012: (37.3% D- 59.2% R)        +21.9% R
2016: (43.2% D- 47.7% R)        +4.5% R      (+17.4% Dem Swing)

This is obviously a huge deal.... This is the second largest City located solely within Williamson County, and obviously significant swings here if they continue to trend Democratic are not good, when a Republican Pres candidate only bagged 48% of the vote....

So, if we look at the wealthiest precinct in the SW part of City, MHI $ 107k/Yr we see it go from 2012: (34-63 R) to in 2016: (41-50 R), approx 80% White...

We shift over to the next wealthiest precinct with an MHI of $106k/yr go from 2012: (37-61 R) to (47-45 D) that is only 68% White, 11% Asian and 15% Latino    (+26% Dem Swing)!

4.) Leander---- MHI $ 76.1k--- Pop 28.2k

(60.5% White, 30.2% Latino, 4.4% Black, 2.4% Asian)

2012: (34.6% D- 62.0% R)      +27.4% R
2016: (36.0% D- 55.3% R)      +19.3% R          (+8.1% Dem Swing)

This is a little trickier, since the wealthiest precinct, overlaps census tracts with one of the lower-income census tracts in the city, although even the lower income tract within the precinct is Whiter than the city at large....

2012: (33-63 R) and 2016: (35-56 R)....

5.) Pfugerville--- MHI $76.0k/Yr---- Pop 50.1k

Almost all of the City is located within Travis County, so skip the small portion in Williamson.

6.) Random Others---

Took a peak around the county, and one of the wealthiest places (precinct) is in NE Georgetown near a couple country clubs--- MHI $119.8k/Yr--- 84% White. VAP skews heavily older

2012: (23-75 R)--- 2016 (25-69 R)

One of the other wealthiest, is East of Round Rock around the Golf Club at Star Ranch:

MHI $115+k/Yr.... 71% White.

2012: (33 D- 64 R).... 2016: (40 D- 53R)

So make of this what y'all will....

[NOVA Green]

Here are the top 10 wealthiest towns in GA according to some list I found on the internet (which I think isn't entirely accurate based on the gap between #8 and #9, but most look right) based on MHI:

Code:

CITY			        MHI	        2012 R	2012 D	2016 R	2016 D	SWING
Alpharetta, GA		$125K	64.8%	33.7%	50.8%	44.5%	D+24.8
Druid Hills, GA		$123K	30.9%	67.2%	17.8%	78.2%	D+24.1
Berkeley Lake, GA	$121K	55.8%	42.9%	44.4%	51.2%	D+19.7
Sandy Springs, GA	$120K	54.7%	43.9%	41.3%	54.0%	D+23.5
Roswell, GA                 $120K	63.8%	34.5%	51.8%	43.1%	D+20.6
Skidaway Island, GA	$113K	77.7%	21.9%	67.0%	31.0%	D+19.8
Milton, GA		        $112K	70.0%	28.6%	58.2%	37.2%	D+20.4
Johns Creek, GA		$111K	63.7%	34.9%	49.5%	46.3%	D+25.6
Peachtree City, GA	$91K          72.7%	25.7%	65.4%	30.2%	D+11.8
Dunwoody, GA		$80K	        59.3%	39.2%	45.0%	50.4%	D+25.5

Awesome data dump from Professor/President Griff representing the Great State of Georgia....

Love how you include MHI in your data... granted wealth is relative depending upon what State/Metro area, etc from a comparative standpoint...

Hoping we get some more contributors to jump in especially from places like Florida, North Carolina, and sharing data about upper-income parts of the Midwest, where we are lacking some major data points....

[NOVA Green]

In Tennessee, I would look for Brentwood and Franklin in Williamson County and Belle Meade in Davidson County.

From eyeballing it, Trump seems to have gotten about 70% of the two-party vote in Brentwood (compared to 75-80% for Romney), about 65% in Franklin, compared to maybe 70% for Romney (but Franklin has some amount of an urban core of its own that was significantly closer, albeit still won by Trump).

Belle Meade had a massive swing, from Romney winning the two-party vote 78-22 to Trump only winning it 62-38.  Granted, third party votes increased from 17 to 113 (all but six of the 113 for Johnson) over that time period.  I can't seem to find the precinct data for the 2015 Nashville mayoral race, but I remember hearing that it voted 90% for David Fox in the technically non-partisan race.

I want to thank you for having the privilege of living in the great Volunteer State, where your SoS office actually posts precinct level returns for the entire state on their official website---- totally awesome, and I wish more states would learn from that leadership and ease of availability to this data.

County level precinct maps are a bit more hit and miss, since there is county-to-county variance in detailed maps, but for better or worse, larger concentrations of wealthy Americans are a bit more likely to be clustered in Metro areas and Shelby, Davidson, & Williamson Counties all have maps available on their respective websites....

So I pulled about some additional numbers for Tennessee to see what wealthy voters did in 2012 and 2016....

So to go back to Metro Nashville----

#1 Wealthiest-  Belle Meade (Davidson County- MHI $202.1k/Yr-- Pop 3.0k)

(98.3% White, 0.8% Latino)

2012: (22.0% D- 77.1% R)       +55.1% R
2016: (35.5% D- 58.0% R)       +22.5% R       (+33% Dem Swing)

#2 Wealthiest- Forest Hills (Davidson County- MHI $ 174.5k/Yr-  Pop 4.9k)

(93.6% White, 1.7% Latino, 1.4% Asian-American)

2012: (32.0% D- 67.0% R)     +35.0% R
2016: (43.1% D- 51.2% R)     +8.1% R           (+27% Dem Swing)

#3 Brentwood---- Covered Above in my preceding post

#4 Shackle Island (Sumner County)---- Not able to obtain bcs of precinct maps

#5 Oak Hill--- ( Davidson County---- MHI $110.7k/Yr--- Pop 4.6k)

(96.2% White, 1.7% Asian, 1.5% African-American)

2012: (34.7% D- 64.0% R)        +29.3% R
2016: (43.4% D- 50.7% R)        +7.3%  R       (+22% Dem Swing)

Wow--- so we have two of the five wealthiest places in Metro Nashville where Trump barely cleared 50% of the vote!!!!

So, here's a bonus number I pulled for Metro Memphis:

#1 Wealthiest- Germantown- (Shelby County- MHI $ 109.7k/Yr- Pop 39.1k)

(83.8% White, 6.7% Asian, 5.1% African-American, 3.6% Latino)

2012: (21.5% D- 77.5 % R)          +56.0% R
2016: (29.8% D- 69.2% R)           +39.4 % R      (+17% Dem Swing)

Also, a total aside, but anyone from Tennessee or our resident experts on Southern politics have an explanation as to why wealthy White voters in Nashville appear to be more receptive to Democratic Presidential candidates than those in Memphis?

I would also look at Franklin in Williamson County, which is bigger, but still very wealthy as well.  But, my guess on Nashville vs. Memphis is two-fold.  First, the music industry is obviously huge in Nashville, and, in small population places like Belle Meade and Forest Hills (what about Green Hills?), the music industry could have contributed to the large swing in Nashville (but would be less of a factor in rich areas of Williamson County, given the larger population).

Second, West Tennessee and Middle Tennessee are very different (and both are wholly different from East Tennessee).  People who think of Tennessee as an Appalachian state are really only thinking of East Tennessee (which includes Knoxville), which is actually ancestrally Republican and almost uniformly white.  Middle Tennessee is really its own entity, with whites being slightly more Republican than in Kentucky, but less than in Alabama and Mississippi (though it has some in common with South-Central Kentucky and North Alabama).  West Tennessee, on the other hand, is very much part of the Deep South and more resembles Mississippi than East Tennessee, politically, culturally, and geographically.  It is also majority-black or very close to it (Obama actually won West Tennessee in 2012, but I don't think Hillary quite carried it in 2016).  Apart from a few liberal whites (and actually a semi-significant Jewish population) in downtown Memphis, West Tennessee's white voters are much more like Mississippi's.  In fact, if West Tennessee whites voted like East Tennessee whites (East TN is probably 70% Republican, but 90%+ white), West Tennessee would be overwhelmingly Democratic because of Memphis.  In fact, in 2012, simply adding Memphis (the TN-9 section) to Mississippi would have made Mississippi a virtual tie.

Fun Fact: The precinct of the downtown precinct where Nashville's famous Lower Broadway is actually voted overwhelmingly for Trump.

I just found some interesting data that shows a pretty stark divide between Brentwood and Belle Meade, even though they are usually thought of as very politically similar (i.e. ultra-rich and conservative).

2014 Amendment One (which said that abortion is never protected by the TN Constitution "including... when the pregnancy results from rape or incest or when abortion is necessary to save the life of the mother"):

Belle Meade (Davidson County precinct 23-4):
No: 65.4%
Yes: 34.6%

Brentwood (Williamson County precincts 6- 1-3, 7- 1-3):
Yes: 53.5%
No: 46.5%

I would include Franklin too, but its borders are harder to define, but it certainly seems like it went for Yes fairly convincingly, since it includes most of the rest of Williamson County, which went for Yes by more than Brentwood did.  However, the one No precinct in all of Williamson County was in Franklin.

Compare that to Amendment 3 (which made income tax unconstitutional in Tennessee):

Belle Meade:
Yes: 67.4%
No: 32.6%

Brentwood:
Yes: 76.2%
No: 23.8%


And, to show that this simply doesn't reflect that there are that many more Democrats in Belle Meade:

2016 President (2-party vote):

Belle Meade:
Trump: 62.0%
Clinton: 38.0%
(Johnson votes were 6.5% of Trump+Clinton total)

Brentwood:
Trump: 66.4%
Clinton: 33.6%
(Johnson votes were 4.3% of Trump+Clinton total)

So, while Brentwood is slightly more conservative overall than Belle Meade, it is significantly more socially conservative, with a majority even being willing to pass a constitutional amendment that will potentially ban abortion with no exceptions in Tennessee if Roe is overturned.  This likely also explains why Belle Meade trended far more away from Trump than Brentwood did in 2016, considering that it has somewhat of a socially liberal/moderate streak.

That's quite an interesting take on what so far appears to be a significant swing towards the Democratic Nominee Nationally in '16 among relatively wealthy voters, since thus far we haven't necessarily seen a major difference in swings between *regions* of the country.

I wonder to what extent the pattern that you have observed in wealthier Metro precincts in a "Bible Belt" state like Tennessee might also apply to places all the way from Texas/Oklahoma up to North Carolina???

So are some of the variances in swings among "relatively wealthy voters" (High MHI cities and precincts) in much of the South ("Bible Belt") however we choose to define it, potentially explained as a result of areas where there are higher concentrations of Evangelical Christians vs more the "Country Club" Republican types....

Sounds like a Masters Degree research project to me .... but still more seriously I think you are the first to have identified a potential variance in upper-income Southern swings with a potential correlation with a more Evangelical (Southern Baptist?) bent than among other traditionally overwhelmingly Republican  wealthy demographics in Metro areas of the Southlands in the '16 General Election....

I think we need some more posters from the Southlands on here to examine this in more detail....

I could pull some Texas numbers on various elections for many counties, but unfortunately, they make it damn difficult for the Citizens to actually vote on Statewide Citizens Initiatives, so I don't believe it's possibly to pull numbers from abortion and taxation related initiatives, the same way that I used to be ably to easily do for Oregon....

Thanks Extreme Republican!    Looking forward to you picking up that shovel and digging some more, because it looks like you might be on to something that could well explain variances in '16 swings among this Demographic in parts of the Midwest as well.

[NOVA Green]

In NJ here are some notable anti-Trump swinging towns:

-Allendale
-Alpine
-Bernards
-The Chathams
-Demarest
-Essex Fells
-Glen Ridge
-Haddonfield
-Harding
-Ho-Ho-Kus
-Livingston
-The Mendhams
-Millburn
-Montgomery
-New Providence
-North Caldwell
-Ridgewood
-Rumson and Fair Haven
-Summit
-Upper Saddle River
-West Windsor
-Woodcliff Lake

Thanks!!!

We are lacking a bunch of data from the NorthEast,,,

Do you mind  doing a small favor (Pretty Please.... ) and post the Median Household Income Numbers from this site, shouldn't take you more than five minutes:

http://statisticalatlas.com/United-States/Overview

Also, since apparently you have already run the swing numbers, that would be totally awesome as well....

Just makes it a bit easier to quicker compare and contrasts, and hell, you've already done much of the heavily lifting on your own time representing Joisey....

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County Colorado---- MHI $101.6k/Yr

Wealthiest places:

1.) Castle Pines Village- Pop 4.0k--- MHI $206.3k/Yr

(Precinct 263+ part of 264) but only included pct 263

88.3% White, 4.8% Latino, 5.1% Asian

2012: (77 R- 22 D)       +55 R
2016: (62 R- 30 D)       +32 R    (+23% D Swing)

2.) Castle Pines- Pop 10.5k--- MHI $138.3k/Yr

(Precincts 258,260, 261, & 262)--- Also Part of Pct 259 (Not included)

89.6% White, 6.5% Latino, 0.9% Asian


2012: (67 R- 32 D)       +35 R
2016: (54 R- 36 D)       +18 R    (+17% D Swing)

3.) Perry Park--- Pop 1.5k--- MHI $119.7k/Yr

(Precinct 404, although possibly a small pop not part of the census tract)

92.5% White, 3.1% Latino, 2.4% Black, 1.8% Asian

2012: (69 R- 31 D)       +38 R
2016: (58 R- 33 D)       +25 R   (+13% D Swing)

[NOVA Green]

Decided to see how some upper-income places in Idaho voted, being fellow neighbors from the Pacific Northwest and all that....

1.) Blaine County--- MHI $ 64.0k--- Pop 21.3k

Wealthiest county in the state per MHI....

Unfortunately the '16 numbers for the county lump absentees as one category, rather than assigning votes to precinct (Unlike 2012), so I had to try to split absentee votes uniformly based upon ED vote as %, and use the Absentee Vote by Party % to approximate '16 GE numbers, so it is an imperfect methodology, but still gives us a reasonable idea of '16 GE Pres results by place.

A.) Hailey--- Pop 8.0k--- MHI $75.2k

2012: (67 D- 30 R)        +37 D

2016: (62 D- 29 R)        +33 D    (+4% R Swing)

B.) Sun Valley- Pop 2.3k-- MHI $73.2k

2012: (46 D- 52 R)        + 6 R

2016: (58 D- 32 R)        +26 D    (+32% D Swing)

So even regardless of the imperfect nature of calculating the '16 Pres GE results by place within Blaine County, it still appears that there was a massive swing towards Clinton in Sun Valley, and a marginal improvement or decline in the margins in Hailey, with a significant amount of 3rd Party defection.

Now--- the problem with using MHI as a proxy for wealth, is that it can frequently understate the net relative wealth of retirees in places like Sun Valley where the average cost of a House is $670k, and it is not at all unusual to find homes valued at well over a Million Dollars.


2.) Ada County  (Boise Area)--- MHI $55.2k    --- Pop 401.7k

A.) Hidden Spring--- MHI $103.3k   Pop   2.2k   (Uninc Census Designated Place)

(Precinct 1901)--- Note that the pop increased signficantly in this planned community over the past few years

2012: (45 D- 52 R)        + 7 R

2016: (44 D- 44|* R- 6 McMullin- 5 Johnson)    (+7% D Swing)

B.) Eagle---- MHI $80.8k---- Pop 20.5k      (City)

(Precincts 1402, 1403, 1406, 1407, 1408, 1409, 1410, 1411, 1415, 1416)

2012: (30 D- 68 R)        +38 R
2016: (28 D- 61 R)        +33 R        (+5% D Swing)

I didn't break down the McMullin/Johnson Voters because of the time involved in calculating the data, but McMullin did significantly outperform Johnson in every precinct within the City, so even with some young folks that voted Obama in '12 shifting to Johnson, the major story here is obviously the defection of Romney '12 voters to McMullin.

[NOVA Green]

Montana City--- Jefferson County--- MHI $100.2k/Yr-  Pop 2.9k

Wealthiest town in the wealthiest County in Montana....

2012: (33 D- 65 R)       +32 R
2016: (35 D- 58 R)       +23 R     (+9% D Swing)

Will need to look further at wealthier areas in Montana, since I *should* be able to compare & contrast precinct numbers between '12/'16 and believe that there is a comprehensive data set available to lean on in that research project.....

Meanwhile, want to cross-link to a thread that RINO Tom started elsewhere which has a very close overlap, but with a slightly different focus....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=267040.0

[NOVA Green]

So very frustrated with the quality of Montana when it comes to looking at where various election precincts are located at within a given county....

So I tried to track down one of the wealthiest places in Montana.... the coal mining community of Colstrip in Rosebud County and total blanks....

This is one of the most frustrating things when you have precinct level data, but no means of tying it to any particular location within a county.

Ok--- then tried to take a look at Fox Lake in (relatively nearby) Richland County.... total bust.

Fine, decide to jump over to the 3rd wealthiest county in Montana (MHI) over in Stillwater County.

get so excited that they have a precinct map located on their county website... then I see this monstrosity...

https://www.stillwatercountymt.gov/sites/default/files/files/ClerkRecorder/Elections/county_precincts_reduced.pdf

Maybe I'm going blind at a young age, but not seeing any precinct numbers on the "precinct map"...

So fine.... then I scroll through the county website and see a link to a GiS map.... thinking it's a jackpot, I start to work through only to discover that there are no precinct layers located or accessible within the map!

https://helenamontanamaps.org/Html5Viewer/?viewer=stillwater

The official State/County websites are kind of crap, but still.

So Ok I find an alternate source that may or may not be accurate with precinct level boundaries in various places.... and was able to find an identifier for a community I was looking for (Take 3)

http://www.usboundary.com/Tools/Tile%20Maps/Voting%20District/Montana

So Park City Montana (Stillwater County)---- MHI $58.8k/Yr- Pop 1.0k

2012: (30 D- 69 R)       +39 R
2016: (19 D- 74 R)       +55 R    (+16% R Swing)....

But.... the voting population in the precinct over doubled between 2012 and 2016, even though the population of the community didn't....

So this is one of the fundamental frustrations that those of us that work in precinct level data face on a daily, weekly, monthly, and decade long basis.....

So frustration aside, I'm taking a break from Montana for awhile, and moving on to states that do a better job of providing data to the customers (The Public).

I basically wasted over an hour of my time for crap....