2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1040343240027910145

[GeorgiaModerate]

Something to keep in mind with House polls:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1040962624928792577

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good news....Thanks to Trump insistence of a #RedWave...many GOP midterm voters are checking out of voting this year according to GOP pollsters:

https://mobile.twitter.com/katherinemiller/status/1040995167220711424

That's hilarious.

ISTR Bill Mitchell telling his followers earlier this year that he GUARANTEED Republicans would keep the House and Senate. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Internal RNC Poll: Complacent Trump Voters May Cost GOP Control of Congress

Really good article.  Some highlights:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

A poll with a n of 300 is not worth a whole hell of a lot.

The sample size for CA-39 is 402 though..?

The RV sample is 402 and has Kim+4.  The LV subset is 300 and has Kim+10.  So it has a larger MoE in addition to whatever effects are introduced by their LV filter.

Having said that, I do think Kim is likely ahead by a few points and is one of the few bright spots for the GOP this year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1042790579900440577?s=19

That's interesting in light of the NYT Live poll currently showing Lance up by 4 (with only 299 responses so far, though).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oof, the Trump approval in the Monmouth NJ-7 poll:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1042790579900440577?s=19

So do we know if Malinowski himself responded to this poll or the NYT/Siena one?
That could at least explain 0.2% of the difference.

Nate Cohn responded to Malinowski's tweet saying that it was not the NYT one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Both NJ-7 polls have small samples, so both polls would be within each others margin of error, right? Or am I making that up?

You're correct.  Monmouth (standard model) has it 47-39 Malinowski with a MoE of about 5.  So Malinowski is within 42-52 and Lance 34-44, 19 times out of 20.  NYT has Lance 48-44 with a MoE of 6, which would mean Lance 42-54 and Malinowski 38-50.   

Lance: 42-54 and 34-44 (overlap 42-44).
Malinowski: 38-50 and 42-54 (overlap 42-50).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Both NJ-7 polls have small samples, so both polls would be within each others margin of error, right? Or am I making that up?

You're correct.  Monmouth (standard model) has it 47-39 Malinowski with a MoE of about 5.  So Malinowski is within 42-52 and Lance 34-44, 19 times out of 20.  NYT has Lance 48-44 with a MoE of 6, which would mean Lance 42-54 and Malinowski 38-50.  

Lance: 42-54 and 34-44 (overlap 42-44).
Malinowski: 38-50 and 42-54 (overlap 42-50).

Thank you. I think alot of poll watchers dont really get the concept of MoE(I certainly dont). So neither the Sienna and Monmouth polls are out of left field.

I think that's true.  Most people want answers to simple binary questions like "who's going to win?" or at least "who's ahead right now?"  Political polls don't answer those questions; they measure how many people say they'll vote for a particular candidate, which is not the same thing, for several reasons:

1. What people say may not match who they actually vote for.
2. Margin of error as a result of sampling.
3. Outliers (even with a carefully designed poll, you'll get an outlier outside MoE 5% of the time).

So at best, polls provide somewhat fuzzy estimates of support.  But what we really want to know is who's going to win.  It used to irritate me when people would say pollster X got a race "wrong" when they had candidate A ahead by 2 (with a MoE of say 4), but A lost by 1. Meanwhile, they'd say a poll that had B ahead by 15 was "right", because they're only looking at the binary outcome.

Pollsters are continually trying to refine and improve their methodology, but no matter how good they get, they will never be able to generate precise measurements of the outcome.  This is inherent in the nature of sampling and statistics.  The cliche that "the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day" is actually true -- or at least it's the only poll that's truly accurate.  A poll getting very close to a final result includes an element of luck, no matter how good the pollster is.

It's understandable that people just want a simple answer of who's going to win.  That's human nature, and I'm not immune to it.  All we can really do is try and remember what they can tell us, and what they can't.

[GeorgiaModerate]

To be noted, Cohn is not using Sienna for all of these polls. I think there are 4 or 5 other call centers scattered around the country.

In addition, he's said that they're using Upshot's own weighting choices, not Siena's.

[GeorgiaModerate]

To be noted, Cohn is not using Sienna for all of these polls. I think there are 4 or 5 other call centers scattered around the country.

Call center is not the same as pollster. Pollsters can contract out a call center to conduct the actual calls, but still they set up the poll, questions, analyze the data, etc.

I believe Siena is only fulfilling the call center function (as are some other call centers), and the question design, etc., is coming from NYT/Upshot.  See the tweet below.  If this is the case, all the arguments about Siena's supposed incumbent bias are not relevant to these polls.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1041806028822720512

[GeorgiaModerate]

If I were Phillips, I would start plans to cancel some of my TV ad reservations to start building up my warchest for my re-election bid. Makes things easier to start the next cycle with a nice pile of cash on hand.

Barring some highly unforseen circumstance, he aint losing in 2020 of he is the incumbent. Btw, I’m moving this race from Tilt D—-> Strong Lean D.

If it leaned any farther, it would fall over.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michigan Generic Ballot-

Democrats: 53%
Republicans: 40%

Source: Mitchell Research & Communications

That's a very strange poll.  The GCB looks really good for Democrats, but Trump's approval looks way too high to be consistent with the GCB number:  Approve 46 (strongly 38!), Disapprove 52 (strongly 47).

[GeorgiaModerate]

PA GCB (Muhlenberg College): D 50, R 39

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-morning-call-muhlenberg-poll-pennsylvania-catholic-church-20180921-htmlstory.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

New NBC/WSJ poll out this morning.  Don't have a link to it yet, but there's this:

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1043847711919943686

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's the NBC/WSJ poll: http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/18955%20NBCWSJ%20September%20Poll.pdf

Sep. 16-19, 900 registered voters.  It doesn't give the size of the likely voter subsample.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News GCB: D+6 RV (46-40), D+7 LV (49-42)

Aw, poor Fox News thinks it'll be closer than D +9.

If the actual margin is around D+9, which I think is pretty close, it's perfectly normal to see some polls at both Fox's D+6 and the D+12 reported this morning by NBC/WSJ.  Fox News is a biased organization, but they use good pollsters that don't inject that bias into their results.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1043918265356046336

I posted that upthread early this morning.  This is their first likely voter number of the cycle.  Among registered voters, it was 52/40 (up from 50/42 last month).

[GeorgiaModerate]

These likely voter screens are gonna give me heart burn.

Dems up 8 points gives you heartburn?

Dems dropping 4 points due to a likely voter screen give me heartburn.

It just makes me think it's a poor screen for this year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1043962968306851840

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044342279333441538

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044619414933565440

[GeorgiaModerate]

KY-6 Pulse Opinion Research: Barr (R-inc) 47, McGrath (D) 47

https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/KentuckyTermLimitsPollResults2018.pdf

Isn't POR a partisan pollster?

They're the ones who do the actual polling for Rasmussen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

USC/LA Times, Aug 22-Sep 24, 4161 registered voters including 2151 likely voters

Story at http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20180926-story.html#, toplines will be posted later this morning.

Among likely voters: D 55, R 41

Many details in the story, including:

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