2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

[libertpaulian]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

Hah, if Steve King loses, the Dems are on their way to a 75+ seat gain.

[IceSpear]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

[wesmoorenerd]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

I mean, Steve King could lose. Highly unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

[IceSpear]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

I mean, Steve King could lose. Highly unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

In the same way that Jose Serrano and Randy Naugebauer could lose, yeah.

[wesmoorenerd]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

I mean, Steve King could lose. Highly unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

In the same way that Jose Serrano and Randy Naugebauer could lose, yeah.

Are you seriously implying Steve King is as safe as Jose Serrano?

[IceSpear]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

I mean, Steve King could lose. Highly unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

In the same way that Jose Serrano and Randy Naugebauer could lose, yeah.

Are you seriously implying Steve King is as safe as Jose Serrano?

I mean, maybe he's at 99.9% likely to win as opposed to Serrano's 99.9999999%, but we're kind of splitting hairs at that point.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My family hosted a meet and greet and Q&A at our house for Colin Allred and a few other dem nominees for things like state legislature, DA, court. Had about 100 people pack in our house friday night, got to meet and talk with Colin for a bit, really cool guy, awesome slate of candidates, I hope they all win.

[wesmoorenerd]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

I mean, Steve King could lose. Highly unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

In the same way that Jose Serrano and Randy Naugebauer could lose, yeah.

Are you seriously implying Steve King is as safe as Jose Serrano?

I mean, maybe he's at 99.9% likely to win as opposed to Serrano's 99.9999999%, but we're kind of splitting hairs at that point.

You're being a bit too generous to King. I'd peg him at maybe 90% at worst given the uncertainty that still exists at this juncture.

[Doimper]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

I mean, Steve King could lose. Highly unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

In the same way that Jose Serrano and Randy Naugebauer could lose, yeah.

In the same way that Jim Oberstar and Solomon Ortiz could lose, yeah?

[IceSpear]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

I mean, Steve King could lose. Highly unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

In the same way that Jose Serrano and Randy Naugebauer could lose, yeah.

In the same way that Jim Oberstar and Solomon Ortiz could lose, yeah?

The PVI for those districts was D+3 and R+2. Clearly potentially vulnerable in a wave.

King's is R+11, and even that probably understates it considering how hard and fast it is trending to the right. Of course, Dems can win R+11 districts if lightning strikes like in PA-18. The thing is, Dems only barely won that one by the skin of their teeth despite having a great candidate running against a dud candidate in an ancestral D area that still had a Democratic registration advantage. Compare that to this district. Heavily Republican with a Republican registration advantage. Now compare the candidates. I don't know who J.D. Scholten is (which says something in and of itself, considering I'm a US Election Atlas Dot Org poster with tens of thousands of posts), but something tells me that he's not Conor Lamb quality. Conor Lambs don't grow on trees. And King is the exact opposite of lame boring dud Rick Saccone. Racist IA Hicks adore Steve King and they'll come out in droves to support him. These are the people that elected him countless times, often with over 60% of the vote, knowing full well he's a Nazi. He can't lose.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Baldy boy up 47-46 in O'Connor internal.

O'Connor leads 48-47 after messaging. Imho fool's gold. If we had a better candidate we would have won this thing, but not with O'Connor last month and not with him again.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1040716667838521346

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is gonna go the same way as before

[wbrocks67]

I'm a bit surprised people are just writing off OH-12. Balderson barely squeaked it out, and this fall, Dems will have the turnout edge with someone like Brown probably having huge margins in the Senate race. It's definitely plausible for O'Connor to win.

Not to mention, I wouldn't be surprised if the Franklin County margin was even bigger for O'Connor now than it was before after Balderson's remarks sink in. When he said it, it was only like a day before the election.

[Doimper]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

I mean, Steve King could lose. Highly unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

In the same way that Jose Serrano and Randy Naugebauer could lose, yeah.

In the same way that Jim Oberstar and Solomon Ortiz could lose, yeah?

The PVI for those districts was D+3 and R+2. Clearly potentially vulnerable in a wave.

King's is R+11, and even that probably understates it considering how hard and fast it is trending to the right. Of course, Dems can win R+11 districts if lightning strikes like in PA-18. The thing is, Dems only barely won that one by the skin of their teeth despite having a great candidate running against a dud candidate in an ancestral D area that still had a Democratic registration advantage. Compare that to this district. Heavily Republican with a Republican registration advantage. Now compare the candidates. I don't know who J.D. Scholten is (which says something in and of itself, considering I'm a US Election Atlas Dot Org poster with tens of thousands of posts), but something tells me that he's not Conor Lamb quality. Conor Lambs don't grow on trees. And King is the exact opposite of lame boring dud Rick Saccone. Racist IA Hicks adore Steve King and they'll come out in droves to support him. These are the people that elected him countless times, often with over 60% of the vote, knowing full well he's a Nazi. He can't lose.

That's fair, and I should clarify that I do think that King is the overwhelming favorite to win, but Iowa is notoriously swingy and there's always a few underwhelming challengers that sweep out strong incumbents in waves. If Scholten does pull off the stunner, there will be a few retrospective takes that go something like "It should have been obvious that talk of a 'red wave' lulled the Racist IA Hicks into a false sense of complacency."

[OSR stands with Israel]

Here is the CNN Map: https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/key-races/senate/map

[junior chįmp]

Good news....Thanks to Trump insistence of a #RedWave...many GOP midterm voters are checking out of voting this year according to GOP pollsters:

https://mobile.twitter.com/katherinemiller/status/1040995167220711424

[GeorgiaModerate]

Something to keep in mind with House polls:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1040962624928792577

[Antonio the Sixth]

Good news....Thanks to Trump insistence of a #RedWave...many GOP midterm voters are checking out of voting this year according to GOP pollsters:

https://mobile.twitter.com/katherinemiller/status/1040995167220711424

That's hilarious.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good news....Thanks to Trump insistence of a #RedWave...many GOP midterm voters are checking out of voting this year according to GOP pollsters:

https://mobile.twitter.com/katherinemiller/status/1040995167220711424

That's hilarious.

ISTR Bill Mitchell telling his followers earlier this year that he GUARANTEED Republicans would keep the House and Senate. 

[IceSpear]

This is an interesting graphic. I knew the pundits way underestimated the wave throughout the summer of 2010, but I didn't remember that it went into September as well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Republicans ended up winning the House PV by 6.8 in 2010, so according to this metric we could see a double-digit Democratic win. Of course, that's all speculation.

[Florida Man for Crime]

This is an interesting graphic. I knew the pundits way underestimated the wave throughout the summer of 2010, but I didn't remember that it went into September as well.

Things not included in that graphic that favor 2010 Republicans in comparison to the situation currently faced by 2018 Democrats:


1) Low hanging fruit - There was much more "low hanging fruit" for 2010 Republicans to pick. By this, I mean that there were lots of R+ PVI seats with Dem incumbents which they could win merely by getting the Congressional vote to reflect the Presidential vote

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2010/House/house.html.

Just compare this to the list of Dems who lost to see how many R+5, R+10, R+15, and even R+20 seats were easy pickings for the GOP. By contrast, there are currently very few D+ PVI, and the ones that do exist tend to be more like D+5 at the most (e.g. Valadao, Katko, Curbelo, FL-27, and I think there are literally 0 more significantly D+ districts to win besides those!)


Republican gerrymandering - Probably more than cancels out the fact that Dems are currently doing a few points better on the generic congressional ballot than Reps in 2010 were.


Republican voter suppression laws, control of Secretaries of State/Election Administrations and willingness to use them for partisan vote suppression purposes - So some of the Dems giving the leads on the GCB will end up in some instances not able to vote at all.


Senate map - This is also related to the gerrymandering of the Senate, but Republicans had a much better Senate map to work with in 2010 than the Dems in 2018. Even so, they whiffed on a lot of pickup opportunities in 2010.


In short, the elections are systematically rigged in favor of Republicans.


If all that mattered were the will of the people as expressed by their votes, there would be much less of a problem - Dems would be in great shape. Of course, if that were the case, then Hillary Clinton would also be President right now as well. And Al Gore would have been President in 2000. And Dems would have won back the house in 2012 after having lost it in 2010 (Dems won the 2012 House popular vote - winning the popular vote by a margin of 1.2% translated into losing the # of seats by a margin of 7.6%).

It is extremely likely that Dems will win the House popular vote, and most likely by quite a large margin. But people's votes are only one of a number of factors determining the results of US elections.

[Zaybay]

To counter:

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You are correct in this case, that there were many seats that the Ds occupied that had an R PVI. But what you missed is the fact that the Rs currently have many seats in barely R territory, around R+0-R+5, more than the Ds did in 2010. This means a wave can easily sweep these seats up. It also should be noted just how good Ds are at winning hostile seats, and we are seeing this same phenomenon this year, with seats like MT-AL, many FL seats, and so on, where Ds have it as a tossup or greater in heavily R territory.

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Gerrymandering is like a sea wall. It can blunt small waves, such as D+5 or something along the lines. But against a large wave, such as the one we are seeing, and suddenly, it all falls apart. The VA, NC, and NJ gerrymanders are already falling apart, and a larger D wave may be able to peirce OH, MI, WI, among others.

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This amount is rather negligible, and hasnt swung elections as of recent memory. One that has had serious effect would be FL laws on voting, and it seems that it will be struck down this year. There are other factors, such as the decline of unions, that have had a larger effect on D voting numbers.

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It did look good in 2016, when it was assumed that an R wave would sweep the US. But its clear that the map isnt as bad as it looks. There really are only a couple races that are actually competitive(for Ds, ND, IN, MO, FL and for Rs, TN, NV, AZ, TX). And some of these races are trending D already.

There is also one factor you have not mentioned that gives the D wave a larger omf.

Gubernatorial Races - Unlike in 2010, where the Rs were able to gain 12 governors but lost 6(one to an indie), the Ds look like they are only going to gain seats, unless RI goes horribly wrong. And the seats they can gain are incredibly important, as they all have major seats when redistricting comes around, such as WI,MI,MN,PA,FL,IL, among others.

Anyway, its unclear how large this wave is gonna be. It could be a rather modest wave of only 30 seats, but, if things go right, it could be larger than the 2010 wave, depends on the GCB. Which brings me to the largest advantage the Ds have...

Numbers - while the Rs were able to create an R+7 wave thanks to an apathetic base, and the indies siding with them, this year, the opposite is true. The problem is the overall size of the Democratic base is much, much larger than the R+I base. Usually, Rs win thanks to low turnout among the Democrats and Indies siding with them, but now, the Rs are alone, the Is siding with the Democrats, and they themselves ready to vote. This means the GCB wave for Ds will be much larger. Its evident in the numbers, with the R ballot only being 4.8, compared to the 8.4 currently experienced by the Democrats.

We have 1 1/2 months left, and a lot can change in this time-span, but it looks like the Ds will win this midterm, and win big.

[Devout Centrist]

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This may be correct, but remember that Republicans had sixteen fewer seats than Democrats have this year.