AK-GOV: Walker (I) Drops Out

[Skye]

Guess Begich should have listened to Atlas and drop out.

[new_patomic]

I would say this deserves a return to the tossup catergory until we get new polling.

Lean-R

Those are theoretical though. People will likely act differently now that Dunleavy v. Begich is a real thing rather than a theoretical.

Considering that Walker's name will still be on the ballot I wouldn't presume Begich is favored here. But we'll see, it obviously needs to be repolled.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

It will be interesting to see how much of the vote Walker gets. I’m guessing 3%, maybe a bit less.

Walker should have dropped out way before.

[Adam Griffin]

Well, at least there haven't been too many votes cast so far (less than 1500).

[MAINEiac4434]

Guess Begich should have listened to Atlas and drop out.

wAlKeR iS tHe BeTtEr CaNdIdAtE

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Safe R->Likely R

At least maybe we have a shot at winning this now.

[Oryxslayer]

I would say this deserves a return to the tossup catergory until we get new polling.

Lean-R

Those are theoretical though. People will likely act differently now that Dunleavy v. Begich is a real thing rather than a theoretical.

Considering that Walker's name will still be on the ballot I wouldn't presume Begich is favored here. But we'll see, it obviously needs to be repolled.

My thoughts exactly. I still think the race is Lean R, but all previous polling is either now useless or was polling a hypothetical which was always preseumed to be a hypothetical.

[Zaybay]

Im gonna say lean R for now, but they dynamic has shifted. It will be hilarious if Begich wins after basically screwing the previous governor.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Typical Alaska polling caveats aside, Begich does have a shot. Maybe lean R?

[Xing]

Safe R -> Likely R

Until we get more polling, I'd say this is fair.

[Canis]

I would say this deserves a return to the tossup catergory until we get new polling.

Lean-R or Likely-R

every other poll of this matchup besides the one included in that picture shows begich leading.
Harstad Strategic Research August 13-16th
https://archive.fo/DzCyU
Begich 46%
Dunleavy 44%
Harstad Strategic Research June 21-26  
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/564129f1e4b07ae26518a05c/t/5b43b41d8a922da7a735db24/1531163678634/Harstad+Alaska+Survey+on+Governor%27s+Race.pdf
Begich 50%
Dunleavy 41%
Undecided 9%
Alaska Survey ressarch
http://midnightsunak.com/2018/04/27/begich-leads-dunleavy-alaska-governors-race-poll/
Begich 52%
Dunleavy 42%
Undecided 5%
plus theirs rumors of a october suprise coming for dunleavy
https://www.anchoragepress.com/news/it-s-time-for-walker-to-quit-his-campaign-and/article_7be395c6-d25a-11e8-a56b-73eb9340a63a.html
and ivan moore says if walker dropped out and endorsed and campaigned for begich it would be a coin toss which is what is happening
thats why im moving this one to a tossup
https://www.anchoragepress.com/news/pollster-says-it-could-be-a-race-for-governor-if/article_26b7108a-d3e2-11e8-b97f-27409073b62d.html

[MT Treasurer]

^Yes, when Dunleavy had far less name recognition. Begich could win in a big wave year, but it’s a stretch to say this is a 50/50 race. Alaska isn’t Montana.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1053426570914881536?s=19

[cinyc]

I would say this deserves a return to the tossup catergory until we get new polling.

Lean-R or Likely-R

every other poll of this matchup besides the one included in that picture shows begich leading.
Harstad Strategic Research August 13-16th
https://archive.fo/DzCyU
Begich 46%
Dunleavy 44%
Harstad Strategic Research June 21-26  
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/564129f1e4b07ae26518a05c/t/5b43b41d8a922da7a735db24/1531163678634/Harstad+Alaska+Survey+on+Governor%27s+Race.pdf
Begich 50%
Dunleavy 41%
Undecided 9%
Alaska Survey ressarch
http://midnightsunak.com/2018/04/27/begich-leads-dunleavy-alaska-governors-race-poll/
Begich 52%
Dunleavy 42%
Undecided 5%
plus theirs rumors of a october suprise coming for dunleavy
https://www.anchoragepress.com/news/it-s-time-for-walker-to-quit-his-campaign-and/article_7be395c6-d25a-11e8-a56b-73eb9340a63a.html
and ivan moore says if walker dropped out and endorsed and campaigned for begich it would be a coin toss which is what is happening
thats why im moving this one to a tossup
https://www.anchoragepress.com/news/pollster-says-it-could-be-a-race-for-governor-if/article_26b7108a-d3e2-11e8-b97f-27409073b62d.html

All those old polls are from before the primary, i.e. before Republicans coalesced behind Dunleavy. I'd need to see new polling before concluding Begich is anything but a slight underdog here.

About 1,200 people have already returned absentee ballots. Some of those are presumably wasted votes for Walker.

I've never understood why early voting needs to start this far before election day.

[Adam Griffin]

About 1,200 people have already returned absentee ballots. Some of those are presumably wasted votes for Walker.

I've never understood why early voting needs to start this far before election day.

To be fair, this almost seems strategic; like the perfect time for Walker to drop out and still have some dignity, and screw Begich simultaneously.

I can say that if I were in Walker's position, I would have refused to drop out, too...but when the inevitable defeat set in, I'd be looking for any excuse to get out (his LG debacle was likely the excuse) and rat-f[inks]k the person who rat-f[inks]ed me.

[MT Treasurer]

All those old polls are from before the primary, i.e. before Republicans coalesced behind Dunleavy. I'd need to see new polling before concluding Begich is anything but a slight underdog here.

About 1,200 people have already returned absentee ballots. Some of those are presumably wasted votes for Walker.

I've never understood why early voting needs to start this far before election day.

Even if we pretend that March polls tell us as much about the outcome of a November election as October polls, two of the polls he cited were basically Democratic internals. My guess is Dunleavy wins by 3-5, although I wouldn’t really be surprised by Dunleavy +8-10 or Begich +1-2 either.

[OneJ]

Too bad this probably won't affect much (including the AK-AL House seat) and Alaska is notorious for bad polling.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Safe R -> Likely R

Basically. Good on him but it's probably too little too late.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hopefully Begich still loses.

[Bidenworth2020]

Hopefully Begich still loses.

i would have preferred begich dropped out too, but he is obviously better than dunleavy

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully Begich still loses.

i would have preferred begich dropped out too, but he is obviously better than dunleavy

Yeah, seriously X, you can't condemn Alaskans to live under a Republican just because the Democrat pulled a dick move.

[cinyc]

The number of absentees received by the Division of Elections today, before Walker dropped out, is up to 3,076.

[Former Kentuckian]

This race has been a pain in the butt.

[MAINEiac4434]

The number of absentees received by the Division of Elections today, before Walker dropped out, is up to 3,076.

There are probably another thousand or so still in the mail, too.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Quite sad how we screwed up so badly here, we almost deserve to lose. Still keeping this at lean R like it was before, but obviously I’m now going to change my endorsement to Begich. Not a fan of his, but he is the dem. Walker>Begich>Dunleavy. Now that Walker is gone, Begich obviously has my unenthusiastic support. Still, you’ve been a bad boy Begich.