CO-SEN Megathread: Cory In The House

[S019]

Neguse would be one of the weakest candidates possible and would alienate Denver area(Arapahoe/Adams/Jefferson) moderates, and could actually lose

Johnston and Romanoff both would win by 3-6

If Hickenlooper or Perlmutter change their mind, this becomes Likely D

[Zaybay]

Neguse would be one of the weakest candidates possible and would alienate Denver area(Arapahoe/Adams/Jefferson) moderates, and could actually lose

Johnston and Romanoff both would win by 3-6

If Hickenlooper or Perlmutter change their mind, this becomes Likely D

Just LOL.

Also, its already likely D, so I dont know what you mean by that.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Can anyone with experience/knowledge of CO politics explain why any decent democrats aren't jumping into the field?

Senate races are nearly always the easiest to recruit for, and whilst I know absolute no-name state senators can win, it just seems strange.

Do you have someone in mind who should be jumping in? Besides Hickenlooper (explainable) and Duran (beyond explanation) I'm not sure who else Democrats would be salivating over who should be declaring.

Thoughts on Joseph Neguse?

I expect Neguse will run and unless Hickenlooper jumps into the race (conceivable if there isn't a favorite candidate) he has a pretty decent shot. Actually with Hickenlooper in the race Neguse would still probably have a good shot even if he wasn't odds-on favorite. CO-02 is a revolving door of more left-leaning candidates jumping into higher office (Udall and Polis).

Appreciate the on-the-ground report - I'm very impressed by Neguse's tenure thus far and would love to see him run, hopefully in coordination (i.e. a two-way endorsement announced sometime later in the year) with the Sanders campaign.

That said it's pretty bad optics for someone who has been serving in the House for two months to declare candidacy for higher office. If he declares it won't be until later in the year and we'll hear some rumblings about it before it happens.

I think that's fair and probably explains his reluctance to jump in right away if he indeed intends to run, though admittedly I think these standard political conventions are being rendered less and less relevant with every passing year.

Should clarify here that I don't have any particular insight from living here (I'm busy with work and my work has nothing to do with state politics), but Neguse is like a dream candidate for Democrats. Incredibly young progressive with an inspirational back story and roots in Boulder for all of his adult life. Racial diversity is a really hot issue for Colorado liberals outside of Denver and SoCO (not that there are many liberals left in SoCO at this point) because those areas lack it so clearly - being represented by an Eritrean refugee is would be like a weird form of woke validation to these people. The only other person anywhere near a position of power like that is Duran who inexplicably isn't running. It would be really intriguing to see a Duran-Neguse primary but I don't think the state party wants to see these two wear each other down.

With all that said Neguse's name recognition seems to be pretty low. All of the energy statewide last year went into winning AG, SOS, etc. races and CO-02 was a safe race regardless. Yard signs are a horrible measure but I saw lots more Jenna Griswold signs than I did Neguse signs whenever I went to Boulder/Longmont. If he or the state party was trying to rebuild a statewide profile in 2018 (after losing SOS in 2014) they did a bad job.

[LoneStarDem]

CO: Who's the likely Dem to take down Gardner  ?

[Progressive Pessimist]

McSally, even if AZ votes GOP could lose and Gardner is gone, need 2 more either from KY(Amy Graff) or TX or IA

You don't think that Georgia, Maine, or North Carolina are better targets?

All of them are targets. Democrats must pick up at least four seats to gain a majority since Doug Jones is most likely going to lose (and hopefully appointed attorney general). The path is probably Colorado + Maine + Arizona + North Carolina, while losing Alabama. Georgia is in play too, Texas a longshot.

Yep, that needs to be the plan. Kansas is another possibility I guess, but that's a longshot too. That's why I'm disappointed that Bullock took himself out of contention for the Senate race in Montana. The Democrats need to compete wherever they can, and Bullock might have been able to put Montana in play. I know you love him, I like him too, but he doesn't have much of a path in this presidential primary.

[S019]

Neguse would be one of the weakest candidates possible and would alienate Denver area(Arapahoe/Adams/Jefferson) moderates, and could actually lose

Johnston and Romanoff both would win by 3-6

If Hickenlooper or Perlmutter change their mind, this becomes Likely D

Just LOL.

Also, its already likely D, so I dont know what you mean by that.

Gardner is favored to lose, but not DOA, Dems win the AG race by 4 in a D+8-9 year, so Gardner could squeak it if he ends up with a trash-tier opponent like Neguse, Johnston and Romanoff aren't sure deals either, they'll win after SMP and DSCC spend tons of money. Perlmutter would become an immediate frontrunner and Hickenlooper would make Gardner DOA. Candidate quality is important, as shown in CO downballot elections

[DaWN]

Neguse would be one of the weakest candidates possible and would alienate Denver area(Arapahoe/Adams/Jefferson) moderates, and could actually lose

Johnston and Romanoff both would win by 3-6

If Hickenlooper or Perlmutter change their mind, this becomes Likely D

Just LOL.

Also, its already likely D, so I dont know what you mean by that.

Gardner is favored to lose, but not DOA, Dems win the AG race by 4 in a D+8-9 year, so Gardner could squeak it if he ends up with a trash-tier opponent like Neguse, Johnston and Romanoff aren't sure deals either, they'll win after SMP and DSCC spend tons of money. Perlmutter would become an immediate frontrunner and Hickenlooper would make Gardner DOA. Candidate quality is important, as shown in CO downballot elections

You're confusing trash-tier candidate and underwhelming candidate. A trash-tier candidate is Todd Akin, and yes, if Gardner gets an opponent like that, he could very well win. If Gardner pulls a slightly lower-tier opponent (still far from guaranteed, wasn't Krysten Sinema passing on a senate run at this point last cycle?) he might not lose by a large amount, but I don't see circumstances under which he wins outside of a huge red wave. If you think that's going to happen, fair enough, but be honest about that instead of going "But Gardner will win if he gets a weak candidate opponent because he's a Strong Moderate Incumbent^TM who will create legions of D Presidential Nominee-Gardner voters because reasons."

And yes, candidate quality is important. Do you know what's more important? The fundamentals. Gardner is an unpopular incumbent in a light blue state in a presidential year with a president who turns off Colorado's most important voters.

[Zaybay]

Neguse would be one of the weakest candidates possible and would alienate Denver area(Arapahoe/Adams/Jefferson) moderates, and could actually lose

Johnston and Romanoff both would win by 3-6

If Hickenlooper or Perlmutter change their mind, this becomes Likely D

Just LOL.

Also, its already likely D, so I dont know what you mean by that.

Gardner is favored to lose, but not DOA, Dems win the AG race by 4 in a D+8-9 year, so Gardner could squeak it if he ends up with a trash-tier opponent like Neguse, Johnston and Romanoff aren't sure deals either, they'll win after SMP and DSCC spend tons of money. Perlmutter would become an immediate frontrunner and Hickenlooper would make Gardner DOA. Candidate quality is important, as shown in CO downballot elections

You are making the error that Gardner is just a generic R and not the most unpopular senator in the US currently. Literally anyone but a pedophile could dispatch him with ease, as the candidate quality for the Rs is so bad. Neguse would, like all the other candidates, beat Cory, because he simply doesnt have the approvals or support to win.

[Gass3268]

Neguse would be one of the weakest candidates possible and would alienate Denver area(Arapahoe/Adams/Jefferson) moderates, and could actually lose

Johnston and Romanoff both would win by 3-6

If Hickenlooper or Perlmutter change their mind, this becomes Likely D

Just LOL.

Also, its already likely D, so I dont know what you mean by that.

Gardner is favored to lose, but not DOA, Dems win the AG race by 4 in a D+8-9 year, so Gardner could squeak it if he ends up with a trash-tier opponent like Neguse, Johnston and Romanoff aren't sure deals either, they'll win after SMP and DSCC spend tons of money. Perlmutter would become an immediate frontrunner and Hickenlooper would make Gardner DOA. Candidate quality is important, as shown in CO downballot elections

Democrats won the AG race by almost 6.5 points, not 4.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I'm assuming his assertion that Neguse is a "trash tier candidate" is because he would bomb out in some of the Denver suburbs, but that's not really founded. Polis wasn't the most progressive candidate on Earth but he beat Stapleton pretty soundly in those areas. Worth noting that Stapleton had some Trumpy tendencies but did try painting an image as somewhat more serious and practical than the nationwide party so it's not like Polis beat up on Todd Akin. Besides the suburban base of hte party is moving leftward just like the rest of the party is which means these areas could be more receptive to Neguse than they would have been even in 2018. The only exception I can see to this is if the national Democratic party does something really kooky and out of the ordinary like putting explicitly putting reparations in their platform.

That logic holds up for Douglas County but the other Denver suburbs are much different than they were in 2006 or even 2012. They won't vote for Gardner, especially not when Trump is in on the ballot and these places will eagerly turn out to vote for his opponent.

[S019]

Former U.S. Attorney for Colorado, John Walsh exploring a run

https://coloradosun.com/2019/03/18/john-walsh-cory-gardner-2020-senate-run/

[Young Conservative]

To me, it seems obvious that Gardner will overperform Trump by several points (which I consider significantly). However, Trump will probably lose Colorado by more than 4. I do not see how Gardner can overperform Trump by >4. Seems highly unlikely.

[Cold War Liberal]

I like Neguse personally, so I hope he runs and wins.

[S019]

I like Neguse personally, so I hope he runs and wins.

You do realize, Neguse is one of the few people who can actually lose this race, he would make the suburban margins narrower and there is a big difference winning a county by 15 vs. winning that same county by seven. Neguse would probably underperform the Democratic nominee extensively, in 2014 he received less votes than Mark "Uterus" Udall, he even underperformed the House Popular Vote in Colorado. In fact, Neguse underperformed all statewide Democrats, except for Treasurer nominee, Betsy Markey, who he outperformed by the unflattering total of 0.04%. Also since, these elections favored the GOP, I am only comparing Democratic candidate performances. The 2014 midterm elections show that Neguse would underperform the Democratic baseline

[DaWN]

I'd wager Trump being toxic in the state and Gardner being a weak unpopular incumbent will overcome Neguse being a #weakcandidate but each to their own I suppose.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

I like Neguse personally, so I hope he runs and wins.

You do realize, Neguse is one of the few people who can actually lose this race, he would make the suburban margins narrower and there is a big difference winning a county by 15 vs. winning that same county by seven. Neguse would probably underperform the Democratic nominee extensively, in 2014 he received less votes than Mark "Uterus" Udall, he even underperformed the House Popular Vote in Colorado. In fact, Neguse underperformed all statewide Democrats, except for Treasurer nominee, Betsy Markey, who he outperformed by the unflattering total of 0.04%. Also since, these elections favored the GOP, I am only comparing Democratic candidate performances. The 2014 midterm elections show that Neguse would underperform the Democratic baseline

He outperformed both the AG nominee and Markey, and only lost by 2.5%. Not too bad of a loss when you consider every statewide election in Colorado that year was decided by a plurality except AG, the big total vote drop between the banner races and row offices (the biggest gap being about 90,000), and the anemic turnout of voters that election anyway. Roughly 700,000 more people voted in the 2016 Senate election in Colorado compared to the 2014 Senate election.

In a year with presidential turnout, Neguse will likely have a much easier time with more people in the electorate as Colorado Democrats saw in 2016 and 2018: about 2.74 million voted in the 2016 Senate election, and about 2.52 million voted in the 2018 gubernatorial election, which were both solid wins for the Democrats.

[Zaybay]

I like Neguse personally, so I hope he runs and wins.

You do realize, Neguse is one of the few people who can actually lose this race, he would make the suburban margins narrower and there is a big difference winning a county by 15 vs. winning that same county by seven. Neguse would probably underperform the Democratic nominee extensively, in 2014 he received less votes than Mark "Uterus" Udall, he even underperformed the House Popular Vote in Colorado. In fact, Neguse underperformed all statewide Democrats, except for Treasurer nominee, Betsy Markey, who he outperformed by the unflattering total of 0.04%. Also since, these elections favored the GOP, I am only comparing Democratic candidate performances. The 2014 midterm elections show that Neguse would underperform the Democratic baseline

Kongress puts it extremely well, but theres also the fact that there is no real indication towards him making the suburbs narrower in CO.

[Politician]

I like Neguse personally, so I hope he runs and wins.

You do realize, Neguse is one of the few people who can actually lose this race, he would make the suburban margins narrower and there is a big difference winning a county by 15 vs. winning that same county by seven. Neguse would probably underperform the Democratic nominee extensively, in 2014 he received less votes than Mark "Uterus" Udall, he even underperformed the House Popular Vote in Colorado. In fact, Neguse underperformed all statewide Democrats, except for Treasurer nominee, Betsy Markey, who he outperformed by the unflattering total of 0.04%. Also since, these elections favored the GOP, I am only comparing Democratic candidate performances. The 2014 midterm elections show that Neguse would underperform the Democratic baseline

Kongress puts it extremely well, but theres also the fact that there is no real indication towards him making the suburbs narrower in CO.

Muh too progressive for suburban moderates!

Get real. He would lose 1-2 points compared to Clinton in JeffCo/Araphoe, but a Democrat still wins with those kind of numbers, especially given he does better in the southwest.

[Zaybay]

I like Neguse personally, so I hope he runs and wins.

You do realize, Neguse is one of the few people who can actually lose this race, he would make the suburban margins narrower and there is a big difference winning a county by 15 vs. winning that same county by seven. Neguse would probably underperform the Democratic nominee extensively, in 2014 he received less votes than Mark "Uterus" Udall, he even underperformed the House Popular Vote in Colorado. In fact, Neguse underperformed all statewide Democrats, except for Treasurer nominee, Betsy Markey, who he outperformed by the unflattering total of 0.04%. Also since, these elections favored the GOP, I am only comparing Democratic candidate performances. The 2014 midterm elections show that Neguse would underperform the Democratic baseline

Kongress puts it extremely well, but theres also the fact that there is no real indication towards him making the suburbs narrower in CO.

Muh too progressive for suburban moderates!

Get real. He would lose 1-2 points compared to Clinton in JeffCo/Araphoe, but a Democrat still wins with those kind of numbers, especially given he does better in the southwest.

If that is the logic, Id like to ask about why Polis wasnt crushed by the Republican Stapleton in these counties, leading to the Rs taking the governorship. I mean, Polis is just as Progressive as Neguse, so I dont see the logic at all.

[S019]

I like Neguse personally, so I hope he runs and wins.

You do realize, Neguse is one of the few people who can actually lose this race, he would make the suburban margins narrower and there is a big difference winning a county by 15 vs. winning that same county by seven. Neguse would probably underperform the Democratic nominee extensively, in 2014 he received less votes than Mark "Uterus" Udall, he even underperformed the House Popular Vote in Colorado. In fact, Neguse underperformed all statewide Democrats, except for Treasurer nominee, Betsy Markey, who he outperformed by the unflattering total of 0.04%. Also since, these elections favored the GOP, I am only comparing Democratic candidate performances. The 2014 midterm elections show that Neguse would underperform the Democratic baseline

Kongress puts it extremely well, but theres also the fact that there is no real indication towards him making the suburbs narrower in CO.

Muh too progressive for suburban moderates!

Get real. He would lose 1-2 points compared to Clinton in JeffCo/Araphoe, but a Democrat still wins with those kind of numbers, especially given he does better in the southwest.

If that is the logic, Id like to ask about why Polis wasnt crushed by the Republican Stapleton in these counties, leading to the Rs taking the governorship. I mean, Polis is just as Progressive as Neguse, so I dont see the logic at all.

First Partisan Environment

D+8.6: 2018

D+3ish-2020 Projection

5.6 point swing toward Republicans

5 point race right there Stapleton v Walker in 2020

Now consider that Stapleton was a Trump hugging idiot who compared CA with CO. Lst's say Gardner can outperform Stapleton by 2-3

We have a 2-3 point race, and anything can swing that tight of a race, when you factor in Neguse's underperformancee it's more like 1.5-2.5 point race, which is a pure Tossup and anything can swing that race towards or against Gardner

Conclusion, Joe Neguse can lose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Harris looking at Bennet and HICKENLOOPER for Veeps or even Heinrich.  That will go a long way in locking down AZ and CO Senate. Even, McGrath can win in KY, since, like Kelly, she has military experience.

[S019]

Harris looking at Bennet and HICKENLOOPER for Veeps or even Heinrich.  That will go a long way in locking down AZ and CO Senate. Even, McGrath can win in KY, since, like Kelly, she has military experience.

Lol






Now let's look at Arizona


In a D+8.6 Environment

Dems win by 2.35 with a popular moderate candidate

In a D+4 Environment

Dems lose by 2.25

In a D+3 Environment

Dems lose by 3.25

In a D+2 Environment

Dems lose by 3.25

NPV required to win a Senate Election in AZ: 6.25% margin

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a Neutral year, of course not, AZ and KY won't go Democratic, for Senate, in a 279 race, but polls in NC and FL shows troubling news for Trump and it won't be a neutral 279, it may be a 2012 environment.

Julian and Joaquin Castro wont even get a speaking spot at Harris convention, Dems have to build bridges in KY, IA and NC, outside of TX

[S019]

2012 was a D+4 environment

Dems would lose AZ by 2.25 in a D+4 environment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We won AZ in 2018, while we lost Senate seats