CO-SEN Megathread: Cory In The House

[S019]

We won AZ in 2018, while we lost Senate seats

D+8.6 Environment

Above I did basic math, to adjust for the presidential election not being a Democratic wave

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems can win AZ in a 2012 environment, thats why it shows a tie with Kelly 47, and so can they win KY, and NC.

Dems lost gubernatorialships in OH, FL, and IA in a Democratic +8 environment, with a Democratic wave, Congressional seats aren't the same as voting for prez, voters can split their votes.

[S019]

2012 was a D+4 environment

Dems would lose AZ by 2.25 in a D+4 environment

Dems can win AZ in a 2012 environment, thats why it shows a tie, and so can they win KY, and NC

[Bidenworth2020]

I like Neguse personally, so I hope he runs and wins.

You do realize, Neguse is one of the few people who can actually lose this race, he would make the suburban margins narrower and there is a big difference winning a county by 15 vs. winning that same county by seven. Neguse would probably underperform the Democratic nominee extensively, in 2014 he received fewer votes than Mark "Uterus" Udall, he even underperformed the House Popular Vote in Colorado. In fact, Neguse underperformed all statewide Democrats, except for Treasurer nominee, Betsy Markey, who he outperformed by the unflattering total of 0.04%. Also since these elections favored the GOP, I am only comparing Democratic candidate performances. The 2014 midterm elections show that Neguse would underperform the Democratic baseline

Congress puts it extremely well, but there's also the fact that there is no real indication towards him making the suburbs narrower in CO.

Much too progressive for suburban moderates!

Get real. He would lose 1-2 points compared to Clinton in JeffCo/Arapahoe, but a Democrat still wins with that kind of numbers, especially given he does better in the southwest.

If that is the logic, Id likes to ask about why Polis wasn't crushed by the Republican Stapleton in these counties, leading to the Rs taking the governorship. I mean, Polis is just as Progressive as Neguse, so I don't see the logic at all.

First Partisan Environment

D+8.6: 2018

D+3ish-2020 Projection

5.6 point swing toward Republicans

5 point race right there Stapleton v Walker in 2020

Now consider that Stapleton was a Trump hugging idiot who compared CA with CO. Lst's say Gardner can outperform Stapleton by 2-3

We have a 2-3 point race, and anything can swing that tight of a race, when you factor in Neguse's underperformance it's more like 1.5-2.5 point race, which is a pure Tossup and anything can swing that race towards or against Gardner

Conclusion, Joe Neguse can lose

A couple of factors you seem to be ignoring.

1) Gardner may have a more civil, friendly attitude, but he is also effectively a "Trump-Hugging idiot", which seems to be all Democrats and independents care about these days.

2) The growth in the suburbs is going to continue for the next two years, and Gardners 2014 win was based off keeping the burbs incredibly narrow.

3) The good news for him, however, is that he will probably gain a lot in rural areas from 2014 numbers, which probably won't be enough but keeps him in the running.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CO is gone for GOP, just like Heller was gone in 2016 and WI, even if Walker runs in 2022 is gone for GOP.

[Zaybay]

I must admit, seeing SuburbanNJConservative debate with Olowakandi was hilarious.

Anyway, there are some pretty major flaws with their thinking:

First Partisan Environment

D+8.6: 2018

D+3ish-2020 Projection

5.6 point swing toward Republicans

5 point race right there Stapleton v Walker in 2020

Now consider that Stapleton was a Trump hugging idiot who compared CA with CO. Lst's say Gardner can outperform Stapleton by 2-3

We have a 2-3 point race, and anything can swing that tight of a race, when you factor in Neguse's underperformance it's more like 1.5-2.5 point race, which is a pure Tossup and anything can swing that race towards or against Gardner

Conclusion, Joe Neguse can lose

First off, Ill be nice and assume that the 2020 environment is in fact D+3, just for simplicity.

So, the national environment has swung 5.6 points in favor of the Rs, so now we are at a 5 point race in CO, right? Well, no, simply put. The problem here is that whats applied is a uniform swing, which is unlikely to occur due to demographics, Trump, trends, etc.

Next off, we move to the idea that Gardner is going to outpreform Trump by 2-3 points, which is frankly far fetched. We are talking about one of the most unpopular senators in America, one who has practically thrown every ounce of goodwill with the people of Colorado out the window, according to polling. To say that he would suddenly outpreform Trump by 2-3 points is rather ridiculous. He may outpreform Trump, but not by such a large margin.

Finally, we get to the part where we just stick whatever partisan bias/feel like it part of the equation! There is literally no evidence to suggest that Neguse would somehow underpreform in the suburbs is that he is
1. A progressive
2. He lost the Secretary of state election in 2014, which sounds bad until you realize that Senator Udall, the Dem AG nominee and the Dem State Treasurer nominee all lost as well. Neguse had the 2nd best performance of the losers, losing by 3 points.

Unfortunately, we already have the information we need to see where Gardner's fate lies. We have his job approval(Piss-Poor), we have Trump's GB in the state(Piss-Poor), and we have the overall trend of the state as well(Piss-Poor, for Rs that is). For Gardner, his chances at reelection are, well, Piss-Poor, and almost every Dem in the state would be able to unseat him, especially a current Representative.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP say that voters wont split their votes in AZ in a Dem win; however, voters can split their votes in ME for Collins and Dem candidate.

Dems are gonna win AZ and CO and targetting KY, TX and NC should they fail in IA and ME to get top tier recruitment

[S019]

Dems can win AZ in a 2012 environment, thats why it shows a tie with Kelly 47, and so can they win KY, and NC.

Dems lost gubernatorialships in OH, FL, and IA in a Democratic +8 environment, with a Democratic wave, Congressional seats aren't the same as voting for prez, voters can split their votes.

OH and IA are Likely R in 2020 and are on track to become the next Missouri, and West Virginia, respectively.

FL is Tilt-Lean R in 2020

All three states are trending Republican

KY will stay Rep, did people not learn anything from muh-tossup KY with Alison Lundergan Grimes in 2014, in NC, Tillis will survive, because Senate races are polarized and a recruitment failure is materaalizing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is losing in FL and NC as we speak in the polls

[S019]

The GOP say that voters wont split their votes in AZ in a Dem win; however, voters can split their votes in ME for Collins and Dem candidate.

Dems are gonna win AZ and CO and targetting KY, TX and NC should they fail in IA and ME to get top tier recruitment

Collins is a popular incumbent, her and Joe Manchin are the last of the Olympia Snowes, Arlen Specters, John Breauxs, Evan Bayhs, etc. They are the last of the moderate, popular incumbents and their seats will flip whenever they retire as did all of the above people. Collins is entrenched, and Tom Allen lost in 2008, while Collins margins will be narrower, I'd be shocked if won by less than 5, and by downright stunned, if she lost.

In AZ, Kelly is already being labeled as a flip floor, and noted moderate Mitt Romney can tell you how damaging flip-flopped ads can be. They are both similar in that they are both moderates, who shifted their views more in line with their political parties' traditional views, when they ran for office. The flip flipping really made Romney look ingenuity, like when he attached a healthcare bill based on his own bill. Kelly also used to live in Texas, so, there could be carpetbagging issues. Gallego is just a left-wing lunatic, who will get very few Trump votes and of the nominee is someone like Biden, I could actually see moderate Biden voters backing McSally.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I appreciate that SNJC s actually trying to argue his case but truth is he's exercising willful thinking in that a self-identified progressive candidate will tank in suburbs. There are countless examples of this not being true nationwide and as has been pointed out Colorado, four month ago, was one of these examples.

The candidate who could possibly lose to Gardner (which is rare no matter who it is) is a candidate who doesn't get base turnout, not somebody who threatens to raise taxes on people in Aurora.

For god's sakes Jared Polis's most striking and vocal issue was free and expanded kindergarten. This is expansion of a public good which comes at a cost of, yes, increased tax revenue! And he still obliterated Stapleton in the areas that are supposedly full of moderate voters.

One of the most often peddled but poorly informed takes is that progressive causes are unpopular in suburban areas because muh taxes. But the progressive agenda satisfies many issues that suburbanites, even upper middle class ones, care about! E.g., more four-year college access, child care and parental leave, more health care availability (because yes even people in suburbs can not afford high quality care), etc. A highly educated suburban workforce (like the tech, health care and energy sectors in metro Denver) will gobble these things up.

[Sestak]

I must admit, I'm a bit impressed. I haven't seen anyone legitimately try to debate OC before.

[Zaybay]

Just a quick update on the CO field situation:

-No other Major Democrats have indicated that they may run in the CO-Senate race.

-Neguse is now the only House Democrat to not file for reelection in the first quarter, indicating a possible interest in running for the senate.
https://decisiondeskhq.com/interactive-see-which-house-incumbents-have-or-havent-already-filed-for-re-election-in-2020/

-Mike Johnston, the Progressive in the race currently, has raised the most amount of money in the race so far, at a whopping $1.8 million in quarter 1.
https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/democrat-mike-johnston-raises-record-m-in-st-quarter-for/article_04c0df06-550b-11e9-be7c-933649f916d6.html

[HarrisonL]

I can't wait for Cory Gardner to be defeated.

[ElectionsGuy]

I can't wait for Cory Gardner to be defeated.

Well, you're going to have to wait another year and a half.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I can't wait for Cory Gardner to be defeated.

Well, you're going to have to wait another year and a half.

Even then it is not guaranteed

[Young Conservative]

I can't wait for Cory Gardner to be defeated.

Well, you're going to have to wait another year and a half.

Even then it is not guaranteed

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

I can't wait for Cory Gardner to be defeated.

Well, you're going to have to wait another year and a half.

Even then it is not guaranteed

Sorry to break your heart, but it pretty much is guaranteed.

[Badger]

This has to be one of the most spectacular political miscalculations in recent American political history in the downballot department. What could possibly have compelled Duran to do this? A Senate run would've led to her crushing the primary field, winning in the general election, and positioning herself as a national player whose status as a Latina who represents a a major Swing-ish State in the Senate could've easily led to her being chosen as a Vice Presidential nominee in two or so presidential cycles.

Instead, she's choosing to run a quixotic imitation Ayanna Pressley campaign that could certainly result in election to the House, for for what? Why would you do this?

Has this conundrum ever been reasonably explained?

[S019]

Gardner raised $2 million for re-election, according to the Denver Post

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/04/11/cory-gardner-2020-mike-johnston/

[SnowLabrador]

Gardner's getting a lot of dark money support, and he hasn't moderated his voting record at all even though it might appear like it would be politically smart to do so.

He's either given up completely or knows something we don't. My guess is he wins by a small amount, not more than a point or two.

[DaWN]

Fun fact: Blanche Lincoln outraised John Boozman in 2010

[LoneStarDem]

Just a quick update on the CO field situation:

-No other Major Democrats have indicated that they may run in the CO-Senate race.

-Neguse is now the only House Democrat to not file for reelection in the first quarter, indicating a possible interest in running for the senate.
https://decisiondeskhq.com/interactive-see-which-house-incumbents-have-or-havent-already-filed-for-re-election-in-2020/

-Mike Johnston, the Progressive in the race currently, has raised the most amount of money in the race so far, at a whopping $1.8 million in quarter 1.
https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/democrat-mike-johnston-raises-record-m-in-st-quarter-for/article_04c0df06-550b-11e9-be7c-933649f916d6.html

Neguse has ZERO chance of winning statewide office considering he just got to the US House of Representatives.... he needs to serve at least 4 terms in the House first before considering seeking higher office.

[Cold War Liberal]

Just a quick update on the CO field situation:

-No other Major Democrats have indicated that they may run in the CO-Senate race.

-Neguse is now the only House Democrat to not file for reelection in the first quarter, indicating a possible interest in running for the senate.
https://decisiondeskhq.com/interactive-see-which-house-incumbents-have-or-havent-already-filed-for-re-election-in-2020/

-Mike Johnston, the Progressive in the race currently, has raised the most amount of money in the race so far, at a whopping $1.8 million in quarter 1.
https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/democrat-mike-johnston-raises-record-m-in-st-quarter-for/article_04c0df06-550b-11e9-be7c-933649f916d6.html

Neguse has ZERO chance of winning statewide office considering he just got to the US House of Representatives.... he needs to serve at least 4 terms in the House first before considering seeking higher office.

Yep! That's why single-term congresswoman Jacky Rosen lost to Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller last year.

[Not Me, Us]

Just a quick update on the CO field situation:

-No other Major Democrats have indicated that they may run in the CO-Senate race.

-Neguse is now the only House Democrat to not file for reelection in the first quarter, indicating a possible interest in running for the senate.
https://decisiondeskhq.com/interactive-see-which-house-incumbents-have-or-havent-already-filed-for-re-election-in-2020/

-Mike Johnston, the Progressive in the race currently, has raised the most amount of money in the race so far, at a whopping $1.8 million in quarter 1.
https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/democrat-mike-johnston-raises-record-m-in-st-quarter-for/article_04c0df06-550b-11e9-be7c-933649f916d6.html

Neguse has ZERO chance of winning statewide office considering he just got to the US House of Representatives.... he needs to serve at least 4 terms in the House first before considering seeking higher office.

Yep! That's why single-term congresswoman Jacky Rosen lost to Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller last year.

It's also why freshman Tom Cotton lost in a landslide to Mark Pryor.