2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/ChrisCinciBiz/status/981144308949635073

[Virginiá]

This is a seat predominantly populated by country club Republicans.
Moreover, many of the seats that flipped in 2010 were areas like VA-09 and MS-04 that flipped on presidential level years or even decades ago. I don't think it's really a good comparison since TX-32 is not as far along that process. The area covering TX-32 probably went Democratic on presidential level for the first time since the 60s just two years ago.
Sessions can obviously lose but this is probably 1) among the places the Republican congress is relatively the most popular, tax cuts etc; and 2) a seat that, if it flips by a truly significant margin, it's a sign the bottom has really fell out for the GOP.

That's a good point, but I still don't think it's the same deal today. There are very notable differences between the political environment of the 80s/90s and even 2000s vs the 2010s. The high degree of political polarization and the virtual extinction of split ticket voting means that people are more often choosing a party to support rather than a candidate. I know there are some states that do have more split ticket voting than most, but like I've said before, I think there is enough evidence to at least believe that it is possible for this kind of seat to open up to downballot Democrats much faster than it did for Republicans decades ago. I don't necessarily think Democrats need to win it either to prove that point. Just coming close, like 5% or 6%, maybe be good enough, because it suggests a lot of former Republican-supporting voters switching over.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is a seat predominantly populated by country club Republicans.
Moreover, many of the seats that flipped in 2010 were areas like VA-09 and MS-04 that flipped on presidential level years or even decades ago. I don't think it's really a good comparison since TX-32 is not as far along that process. The area covering TX-32 probably went Democratic on presidential level for the first time since the 60s just two years ago.
Sessions can obviously lose but this is probably 1) among the places the Republican congress is relatively the most popular, tax cuts etc; and 2) a seat that, if it flips by a truly significant margin, it's a sign the bottom has really fell out for the GOP.

That's a good point, but I still don't think it's the same deal today. There are very notable differences between the political environment of the 80s/90s and even 2000s vs the 2010s. The high degree of political polarization and the virtual extinction of split ticket voting means that people are more often choosing a party to support rather than a candidate. I know there are some states that do have more split ticket voting than most, but like I've said before, I think there is enough evidence to at least believe that it is possible for this kind of seat to open up to downballot Democrats much faster than it did for Republicans decades ago. I don't necessarily think Democrats need to win it either to prove that point. Just coming close, like 5% or 6%, maybe be good enough, because it suggests a lot of former Republican-supporting voters switching over.

I willing to believe that one year of shifting back then isn't equivalent to one year today. But the fact that the last Democrat to win this area in this district was LBJ (and even then, he won it by a smaller margin than the state at large), I think that fact really says something. It was R+9 prior to 2016 for a reason.
I don't think we can label all Clinton districts, by default, as inherently Dem favored at this point. If we are to put such sheer much weight on 2016 results alone and not on prior results, demographics, or incumbency, we may as well say that Trump winning MN-08 by 15 points makes it Lean or possibly Likely R by default.

[Gustaf]

This is a seat predominantly populated by country club Republicans.
Moreover, many of the seats that flipped in 2010 were areas like VA-09 and MS-04 that flipped on presidential level years or even decades ago. I don't think it's really a good comparison since TX-32 is not as far along that process. The area covering TX-32 probably went Democratic on presidential level for the first time since the 60s just two years ago.
Sessions can obviously lose but this is probably 1) among the places the Republican congress is relatively the most popular, tax cuts etc; and 2) a seat that, if it flips by a truly significant margin, it's a sign the bottom has really fell out for the GOP.

That's a good point, but I still don't think it's the same deal today. There are very notable differences between the political environment of the 80s/90s and even 2000s vs the 2010s. The high degree of political polarization and the virtual extinction of split ticket voting means that people are more often choosing a party to support rather than a candidate. I know there are some states that do have more split ticket voting than most, but like I've said before, I think there is enough evidence to at least believe that it is possible for this kind of seat to open up to downballot Democrats much faster than it did for Republicans decades ago. I don't necessarily think Democrats need to win it either to prove that point. Just coming close, like 5% or 6%, maybe be good enough, because it suggests a lot of former Republican-supporting voters switching over.

I willing to believe that one year of shifting back then isn't equivalent to one year today. But the fact that the last Democrat to win this area in this district was LBJ (and even then, he won it by a smaller margin than the state at large), I think that fact really says something. It was R+9 prior to 2016 for a reason.
I don't think we can label all Clinton districts, by default, as inherently Dem favored at this point. If we are to put such sheer much weight on 2016 results alone and not on prior results, demographics, or incumbency, we may as well say that Trump winning MN-08 by 15 points makes it Lean or possibly Likely R by default.

That's not equivalent though because we have data from special and local elections suggesting that Trump has lost a lot of the new voters he gained without winning back any of the ones he lost.

[Jeppe]

Lizzie Fletcher reports raising over $500,000 this past quarter.

https://twitter.com/lizzie4congress/status/981269060343226370?s=21

[KingSweden]

Lizzie Fletcher reports raising over $500,000 this past quarter.

https://twitter.com/lizzie4congress/status/981269060343226370?s=21

Yas Queen

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lizzie Fletcher reports raising over $500,000 this past quarter.

https://twitter.com/lizzie4congress/status/981269060343226370?s=21

Yas Queen

The more territory the GOP has to defend the better.
Texas media markets are expensive and even if the GOP is favored here, it will hopefully be a massive money sink.

[BuckeyeNut]

Aftab Pureval (D) in OH-01 raises $660,000 in his race against GOP incumbent Steve Chabot.

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/981166425212518401

My king is alive.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Big recruting news. Dems finally get a big name to run against Katko I. NY-24 as Juanita Perez Williams is entering the race after declining earlier http://cnycentral.com/news/local/juanita-perez-williams-expected-to-run-for-congress

[Jeppe]

Big recruting news. Dems finally get a big name to run against Katko I. NY-24 as Juanita Perez Williams is entering the race after declining earlier http://cnycentral.com/news/local/juanita-perez-williams-expected-to-run-for-congress

That's good. She's a high profile candidate who will get money flowing into NY-24.

[Bidenworth2020]

Big recruting news. Dems finally get a big name to run against Katko I. NY-24 as Juanita Perez Williams is entering the race after declining earlier http://cnycentral.com/news/local/juanita-perez-williams-expected-to-run-for-congress

That's good. She's a high profile candidate who will get money flowing into NY-24.

yay, moving to tilt r

[smoltchanov]

Big recruting news. Dems finally get a big name to run against Katko I. NY-24 as Juanita Perez Williams is entering the race after declining earlier http://cnycentral.com/news/local/juanita-perez-williams-expected-to-run-for-congress

I don't consider a candidate, who handily lost a mayor election in Democratic-leaning city, to be a "big name"....

[Brittain33]

Big recruting news. Dems finally get a big name to run against Katko I. NY-24 as Juanita Perez Williams is entering the race after declining earlier http://cnycentral.com/news/local/juanita-perez-williams-expected-to-run-for-congress

I don't consider a candidate, who handily lost a mayor election in Democratic-leaning city, to be a "big name"....

We need someone credible to ride the blue wave, and the candidate she lost to was related to (and had the same name as) the biggest Republican name in the district of the last 30 years.

[smoltchanov]

Big recruting news. Dems finally get a big name to run against Katko I. NY-24 as Juanita Perez Williams is entering the race after declining earlier http://cnycentral.com/news/local/juanita-perez-williams-expected-to-run-for-congress

I don't consider a candidate, who handily lost a mayor election in Democratic-leaning city, to be a "big name"....

We need someone credible to ride the blue wave, and the candidate she lost to was related to (and had the same name as) the biggest Republican name in the district of the last 30 years.

I know that. And still can't consider her to be  A-list candidate...

[Brittain33]

Big recruting news. Dems finally get a big name to run against Katko I. NY-24 as Juanita Perez Williams is entering the race after declining earlier http://cnycentral.com/news/local/juanita-perez-williams-expected-to-run-for-congress

I don't consider a candidate, who handily lost a mayor election in Democratic-leaning city, to be a "big name"....

We need someone credible to ride the blue wave, and the candidate she lost to was related to (and had the same name as) the biggest Republican name in the district of the last 30 years.

I know that. And still can't consider her to be  A-list candidate...

Aha. Well, she's not an A-list candidate, and she's not Some Gal.

[Jeppe]

The main benefit is that she’ll get DCCC money flowing into the race, as they tried to persuade her to run in the past. Having just an insurance candidate probably isn’t good enough to take down Katko, Perez Williams is a serious candidate who has political connections and name recognition, which the other candidates don’t have.

[Jeppe]

Jan McDowell, Democratic nominee for TX-24, had an insignificant Q1 haul at $7,800.

She was the 2016 nominee and lost to the incumbent Kenny Marchant by a 56-39 margin, as Donald Trump won the R+9 district 50-44. It could be a competitive race if not for McDowell’s anemic fundraising numbers. But who knows, a rising tide lifts all boats.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/madlinbmek/status/981577670201810945

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jan McDowell, Democratic nominee for TX-24, had an insignificant Q1 haul at $7,800.

She was the 2016 nominee and lost to the incumbent Kenny Marchant by a 56-39 margin, as Donald Trump won the R+9 district 50-44. It could be a competitive race if not for McDowell’s anemic fundraising numbers. But who knows, a rising tide lifts all boats.

Marchant is safe.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The main benefit is that she’ll get DCCC money flowing into the race, as they tried to persuade her to run in the past. Having just an insurance candidate probably isn’t good enough to take down Katko, Perez Williams is a serious candidate who has political connections and name recognition, which the other candidates don’t have.

Nah, she's wave insurance and that's perfectly fine.

[Jeppe]

http://tdn.com/news/local/carolyn-long-campaign-reports-k-in-donations/article_eb02d794-a11e-5d27-bcce-34f28e0121a8.html

Carolyn Long, Jamie Herrera Beutler’s challenger, raised a respectable $275,000 this past quarter.

[Jeppe]

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/04/05/shalala-reports-1-17m-haul-in-3-weeks-351024

Donna Shalala reports fundraising $1.17 million in 3 weeks.

[Gass3268]

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/04/05/shalala-reports-1-17m-haul-in-3-weeks-351024

Donna Shalala reports fundraising $1.17 million in 3 weeks.

I love Donna for reasons no one here will understanding (Badger for life), but isn't this a place where Dems really need to run a young Cuban-American Democrat?

[Cactus Jack]

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/04/05/shalala-reports-1-17m-haul-in-3-weeks-351024

Donna Shalala reports fundraising $1.17 million in 3 weeks.

I love Donna for reasons no one here will understanding (Badger for life), but isn't this a place where Dems really need to run a young Cuban-American Democrat?

I was about to say. I thought the notion of running a 70-year-old Tom O'Halleran for AZ-01 was fairly ridiculous, but a 77-year-old? Shalala is a great candidate, but we desperately need to lower the median age of our national bench.

[KingSweden]

http://tdn.com/news/local/carolyn-long-campaign-reports-k-in-donations/article_eb02d794-a11e-5d27-bcce-34f28e0121a8.html

Carolyn Long, Jamie Herrera Beutler’s challenger, raised a respectable $275,000 this past quarter.

This district deserves more attention