Hartlepool by-election... in October or November

[Ben.]

Labour will hold it, I'd be very suprised if they lost it... VERY VERY SURPRISED.... as one Labour Polster said "Hartlepool?, not many asians in Hartlepool"  

[Ben.]

Labour will hold it, I'd be very suprised if they lost it... VERY VERY SURPRISED.... as one Labour Polster said "Hartlepool?, not many asians in Hartlepool"  

So why is he called Hangus the Monkey?

[shruggs sholders]

[Ben.]

It's possible that Robert Kilroy-Silk might stand for the UKIP in the by-election despite having no links with the constituancy at all.
That a man who used to be M.P for Ormskirk (in Lancs) and is currently an MEP for the East Midlands (where he presumably is registered to vote... he lives in Spain most of the time) can even be allowed to run makes a mockery of democracy... we need a locality rule NOW! No more chicken-running!

Oh and guess what else... the LibDems have been printing leaflets (one of their near-libel writ inducing piles of putrid propaganda disguised as a local "newspaper") before Mandelson was appointed!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That is cheating and should be illegal (hell a by-election won't be called for months yet) and Lord Rennard should be forced onto a diet.

I heard about this... interestingly in the European Elections Labour won the area by a wide margin while they where soundly beaten nationally and who came second in this area? ... yep UKIP, it will be interesting if Labour retains a similar margin of victory and Ukip effectively beats both the Conservatives and Liberals in the end I would see the Liberals being worst hit by Kilroy as the "protest candidate" and in a place like Hartlepool LibDem support will be pretty shallow IMHO.... taking into account the European results in the area even if Kilroy runs I still don't think Labour will lose I mean how many people who would vote Labour will vote for Kilroy??? I can see the Liberals and Tories doing very badly if he runs but I think that the Labour vote will hold up as in the end UKIP takes far more from the right than the left however strangely this will still hurt the liberals as their strategy will be to just appear in what ever guise they think will "play" best with the voters of that area...


I repeat…


1.) No large ethnic population of any kind.

2.) A Labour Party that has regained control at a local leve.

3.) A very robust performance in the European and local elections for the Labour Party in the area



...my conclusion? Nothing that Labour should be too worried about IMHO, but don’t take it for granted that said I can’t imagine there will even be a dramatic reduction in the Labour Majority.    

[Ben.]

"Natural" support in Monkeyland is something like: Lab 50%, Con 35%, LD 15%.
But I doubt we'll see that in a by-election...

My guess: Lab 35-40%, UKIP 20-30%

I concur ... by November I would imagine Blair and the Government will be stronger anyway, that said if the election where held now I'd still say Labour would win.

[Ben.]

From British Spin (www.britishspin.blogspot.com)

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Go Robocop!

If he gets nominated we'll be fine

Supposing “Robo” and Kilroy run, this is my predication…

44% - Labour (“Robocop”)
30% - UKIP (Kilroy)
11% - LibDems
10% - Conservative
4.1% - Others  

If David Bowe receives the Labour nomination (only if the NEC where stupid and only if there where suddenly no viable candidate avalible – ie. It won’t happen) and Killroy still runs…

38% - UKIP (Kilroy)  
36% - Labour (Bowe)
12% - LibDem
9% - Conservative
4.1% - Other

And if Pat Dimond (Mandelson’s preferred successor and Blair’s adviser on education) where to run…

41% - Labour (Dimond)     
33% - UKIP (Kilroy)
11% - LibDem
10% - Conservative
4.1% - Other

…if Dimond runs and Killroy does not…

42% - Labour (Dimond)
19% - Gus Robinson (Independent, my bet is he runs if Kilroy doesn’t)    
17% - LibDems
15% - Conservative

and finally if “Robo” runs and Kirloy does not (very possible if Silk thinks he would lose )…

60% - Labour (“Robocop”)
27% - LibDem
8% - Conservative
4.1% - Others


...and who ever is the candidate ( and for the love of God not Bowe!) Tom Watson should be put in charge of this one ... Al's right the Kid is gifted from what everyone said about him in Brum he was really on form


By the way Al, you may like this site ... http://www.libdemwatch.co.uk/

[Ben.]

Robo isn't running: http://icteesside.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/0001head/tm_objectid=14469887&method=full&siteid=50080&headline=mallon--i-don-t-want-mandelson-s-seat-name_page.html*

But my guess is that if Labour lose Monkeyland, Robo will stand in the General election (he'd win)

*Or could he be pulling a Schwartenegger Schwartsczenger Arnie?

Found the apparent news on a new blog: http://guacamoleville.blogspot.com/

Possible Labour candidates:

Cllr Robbie Payne
Cllr Ian Wright
Cllr Pamela Hargreaves
Moss Boddy (Fmr. Lab. Group leader)
Pat[rick] Diamond (see Ben's post)
Joe Docherty (head of the Tees Valley Regeneration thingy)
David Bowe (ex-Cllr (for Boro not Monkeyland), ex-MEP Hard leftist)

Oh H'Angus has ruled himself out

Bugger ... Dimond or Hargreaves then, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Hargreaves would be the better candidate for the by-election IMHO...

 ...really bad photo but party image makers can change all that

 ...only photo i could find of Dimond but i still say that Hargreaves would be the better candidate.

[Ben.]

Diamond has ruled himself out.
Some very good news though: Tom Watson is up in Hartlepool at the moment

Very good stuff... did you see Routeledge's carp in the NS the other day? that guy just gets worse and worse... Hargreaves would now seem the best candidate to me.  

[Ben.]

Apparently Diamond is still running

Yeah so the Independent says... odd how he takes himself out the running and then apears to still be running, Pam Hargreaves would be the stronger candidate IMHO... she's a woman, local, young (but not too young) and has already been elected by people in the area.  

[Ben.]

I wouldn't be too certain that the UKIP can repeat its showing at non-European elections...although their chances should be better at a by-election than a general election...certainly, if UKIP, LDs and the monkey stand against each other and run well (and maybe Respect too?), the protest vote would be so well and truly split that Labour can run away with it.

I'd be suprised if Respect did well in Monkeyland... hardly any Muslims or Yuppies.
The NSDAP BNP might do well though

Respect have now nominated a candidate http://guacamoleville.blogspot.com/ , however ethnic minorities in Hartlepool account for just 1.2% of the population... I'd be surprised if the Trots even got that... ah well Galloway has an ego to boost... burke!


I repeat I still expect a solid win for any reasonable Labour candidate and I still urge who ever is listening that Pam Hargreaves is the most likely to pull off a solid win, she’s a risk but in a by-election I can’t help thinking that she would be the best candidate… with no Robo


With UKIP runing however i see this as a Labour vs  UKIP fight with LibDems second and Conservatives a bad fourth...  

[Ben.]

Pat Diamond is not seeking the Labour nod

Yeah guacamoleville just said well I'm holding out for Hargreaves however Iain Wright and Steve Wallace seem like they could be good candidates IMHO...  

[Ben.]

Labour shortlist has now been revealed...

Phil Graham, a Labour Party agent and Communication Workers Union official from Bishop Auckland

Kath Rolf, a councillor from Sunderland

Ms Lee Vasey, a councillor from Darlington

Iain Wright, a councillor from Hartlepool

...two women I had not heard of so far... of these however I'd say that Wright has a slight advantage.  

[Ben.]

Wright has been given the nod...

http://guacamoleville.blogspot.com/

...wining 78% on the first ballot of Hartlepool members , youngish father of three and leading member of the Labour Lead council (which was retaken from the LibDems earlier this year), hmm... I think he looks like a strong candidate...

And to the LibDems and UKIP... "BRING IT ON!"  

[Ben.]

He's not running!

But then that gives all the media attention back to the LibDems... not an all togetherly good thing IMHO... Kilroy would really have done for the LibDems IMHO... that said I think he could have taken a far larger chunck of Labour voters than the LibDems will... then again I think Labour will hold this one anyway

[Ben.]

He's not running!

But then that gives all the media attention back to the LibDems... not an all togetherly good thing IMHO... Kilroy would really have done for the LibDems IMHO... that said I think he could have taken a far larger chunck of Labour voters than the LibDems will... then again I think Labour will hold this one anyway

Prior to the Kilroy announcement, oddly enough Wright had been getting most of the media attention (the Mirror likes him apparently. That's a bonus in Monkeyland)... I think that the Tory candidate in 2001 is running as an Indie... Oh and UKIP will be running someone else methinks...

Yeah the Mirror does seem to like the guy (from what i have read on its website) and that can only be a good thing... while Gus Robinson (Tory candidate in 2001) running as an independent could actually means he comes in second (the Conservative Tag actually hurt him IMHO) and UKIP (even without Kilroy) will be running about even with the Tories in a battle for fourth or even third place... so all seems good so far with a very divided field facing a strong Labour candidate with the undivided backing of Labour HQ... and as I said I still think Labour will hold this one with a slightly reduced majority (between 1,000 and 5,000 votes I say ).  

[Ben.]

Al. Out of interest do you think that the Liberal Democrats could take the Harbourgh seat from the Conservatives, the reason is I have family in the North of the Constituency (the suburban area), the Tory majority was cut to pieces in 1997 but thanks to the split between the Labour and LibDem candidates the Conservatives held, in 2001 the Labour vote fell down again to a solid third while the LibDems retook ground, the areas is becoming more and more suburban (full of commuters) and the Conservative vote in the villages is increasingly not sufficient to hold back the LibDems while in the European Elections UKIP did very well in area and will probably spend some time on the constituency as I think will the Liberals…

The 2001 results where as follows…

Edward Garnier, Conservative : 20,748 (44.7%)
Jill Hope, Liberal Democrat : 15,496 (33.4%)
Raj Jethwa, Labour : 9,271 (20.0%)
David Knight, UKIP : 912 (2.0%)

….just wondered what you though?

[Ben.]

Any local major local issues?

Urban Growth (lots of new housing estates but most for professionals or families few for first time home owners, there is also an issue with "urban sprawl").

Hospitals (smaller surgeries have been closed in some cases and services reduced else where).

Gypsies (the antipathy many in the South of the constituency, around Harbourgh its self, hold for the large communities around the Northamptonshire/ Leicestershire border, is quite striking).

Post Offices (this could be big issue for those in the villages in particular, but this will probably just reinforce the Tory advantage in their traditional heartland)


... as for Leicester South, I can see some LibDem resources being spent there, but I think they are more likely to prioritise hitting marginal conservative seats especially those held by May, Letwin and Davis and seats where UKIP are expected to do well enough to split the Tory vote and "let the Liberals in"... I think that in Brent (which I expect Labour to retake by a few thousand votes) will be treated as an extension of the operation in Hughes’ Bermondsey fiethdom however I think the Liberal concentration on marginal Tory and suburban Labour seats will mean that both Brent and Leicester will be lower priorities neither Teather nor Gill are that important to the LibDems nationally... well Gill certainly is not, Teather has some symbolic and sentimental value within the Liberal Party as a whole but that is no reason to go to extreme length to defend her to the detriment of the national operation, she’s largely going to be on her own I think…  

[Ben.]

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Ickky. Another bad place for Anti-Gypsy racism is Northern Herefordshire (around Leominster).
That's an issue that'll help the Tories methinks...

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Would you agree that LibDem efforts at retaining Brent and Leicester are going to be slight compared to the attack on marginal Tory seats and suburban Labour marginal... it would make sense for any offensive by the LibDems to take place in that order the LibDems as I have argued stand to make big gains by hitting the conservatives and to a lesser extent Labour in a string of marginal suburban seats… in short the LibDems have to make a choice…

1.)   Do they grow up and attempt to displace the Conservatives as a more Libertarian, Voter Friendly Party of the Right and target these largely suburban marginal… and the noises coming from Liberal Head office seem to suggest this sort of agenda is being pressed on Kennedy by the likes of Oaten and Hughes.

or…

2.)   Do they try and be “all things to all people” and split their resources between holding seats such as Leicester South and Brent East and a launching a weaker offensive against the suburban marginals held by both the Conservatives and Labour, this seems to be what Kennedy would like to do, it seems he is still wedded to the SDP dream of displacing Labour rather than the Conservatives but thankfully he seems to be very much in a minority within the Liberal Leadership.

I think that in the end it would make little sense to adopt the second option and instead I think the Liberals will concentrate on hammering the Conservatives as well as hitting marginal Labour seats, such a strategy offers the greatest potential dividends for the Liberals and by the noises coming from the Liberal Leadership both on the Policy side of things and on the strategy side of things it seems this is what they would like to attempt…        

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I respect Hughes, he has a very high opinion of himself (but then again so do many MPS and Ministers) and is I hear a good constituency MP and I believe would have been a far far better leader than Kennedy and will probably run to replace Kennedy if Charlie decides to retire some time after the 2005/06 contest… certainly that would fit in with this solidification of the Liberals as the “credible party of the right” something that Hughes would be far far more enthusiastic about that, the ex-SDP’er, Kennedy.      

[Ben.]

This is just great …Tom Watson in full flow…

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/backbench
   
“Ignoring the existence of the "cab rank rule", whereby barristers take up the first case they're offered, he's dug out the fact that Ms Dunn once represented a heroin addict charged with theft.

"How many other junkies has she made excuses for in court," he demands to know”


…Now this is great, so unfair yet so effective with your average voter and what’s the best the Liberals can come back with…


“the Lib Dems have hit back, accusing Mr Watson of "smear tactics" and asking why he spends so much time away from his Midlands constituency”


…this kid could go far, just deliver Wright a solid majority and I bet he gets a big boost after the election and during the general will be involved up and down the country I could well see him taking a lot of responsibility for Labour campaigns in Brent, Leicester and Chesterfield as well as seats perhaps made vulnerable as a result of the Iraq war…

[Ben.]

“the Lib Dems have hit back, accusing Mr Watson of "smear tactics" and asking why he spends so much time away from his Midlands constituency”

The irony. Don't they usually send all 50 odd LD M.P's to every by-election?

Exactly

Then again the poor Tories have to send all their MPs to by-elections becuase most Tory activist can't walk any more.. LOL.

[Ben.]

It appears that the local (labour lead) authorities have decided to lean on the other organs of local government in Hartlepool and the “University Hospitals of North Tees and Hartlepool” will not close.

The issue of the Hospital closure had been shaping up as an important campaign issue in the by-election with every candidate from UKIP to Respect to the LibDems using it as a “stick to hit Labour with”, with varying degrees of success. This is now pretty much a none issue, no doubt the Liberals and the others will try and make some headway on the issue but to be fair it seems rather like its been kicked into the long grass… rather like the Liberal Council in Leicester taking away pensioners bus passes and when it became and election issue reintroducing them and then actually trumpeting the reintroduction in their literature (LOL)… well this is overall good for Labour as the issue is out of the way early and their candidate still seems to have the edge, Gus Robinson has been very quite though.          

[Ben.]

Iain Wright is the best candidate for Labour and has the local credentials, which still way heavily in the North-East.

I'm from Durham and I've been helping out in Hartlepool. I think Labour will hold the seat with a reduced majority on a substantially low turnout.

Come the General Election, the closest fight in the region will be between Labour and the Lib Dems in the City of Durham (a seat my party has held since 1935; though, it was marginal during the 1980s). Labour came out on top - just - in the recent European Elections by about 500 votes and the Lib Dems gained control of the City Council in 2003.

Dave

Welcome LucysBeau, I'm a yank with family in the UK and will be studying there from September onwards I helped out in Leicester South and have a great many friends involved with the Labour Party... that said I think I may have trouble in keeping up with this site from now to Christmas, but I'll try and stay tuned

I may pop up to Hartlepool if I get a chance to help out, but I agree, turnout at say 35% with a Labour win of between 800 and 1,500 votes with the LibDems in second and UKIP, Gus Robinson and the…what was their name again?...er…yeah that’s it… the “Conservative and Unionist Party” fighting it out for third place and then way back in the distance “Respect” grappling with the realisation that militant-leftists and angry Muslims are in short supply in the north east which has had a tradition of backing moderate Labour politicians… by the way how goes the “sign war” ?  

[Ben.]

If i where a young Labour MP I'd try something along the lines of Edwards and other populists in the US when it comes to the old coal and steel communities, particularly steel, calling for a clamp down on companies that outsource jobs and raising tariffs on foreign steel as well as seeing if the pits could be made profitable again... such a brand of leftwing populism could have the potential to really appeal to many working class Labour voters... that said in Hartlepool I think a little positive campaigning on the economy, health, education and crime wouldn't be a bad idea for Labour  

[Ben.]

 

If i where a young Labour MP I'd try something along the lines of Edwards and other populists in the US when it comes to the old coal and steel communities, particularly steel, calling for a clamp down on companies that outsource jobs and raising tariffs on foreign steel as well as seeing if the pits could be made profitable again... such a brand of leftwing populism could have the potential to really appeal to many working class Labour voters... that said in Hartlepool I think a little positive campaigning on the economy, health, education and crime wouldn't be a bad idea for Labour  

There are no Deep Pits in County Durham anymore
IIRC there are a couple of open pits along the coast though... and there are still a few Deep Pits along the Wansbeck (in Northumberland)... an election winner would be demanding that new ones were sunk, along with community regeneration and so on.
Won't happen until there's an energy crisis (as there will be at some point) though...

Sad thing is that now there are new cleaner ways of buring coal and yet things still are not done to reopen some of these pits, but as you say some time in the middle of this century the power industry is going to need to look to coal again and then a string of these pits may well open again... that said i think some protectionism when it comes to steel would be a great idea it could bring some "proper jobs" back to cities like Sheffield and the Welsh valleys... the likes of Rhodri Morgan would be most impressed by such an idea, however the authority to push such a plan forward is somewhat outside of Mr Morgan's power    

[Ben.]

Guacamolevill has finally offer their considered analysis of the race thus far...

http://guacamoleville.blogspot.com/2004/08/still-alliance-party.html

[Ben.]

Labour seems to be doing ok, or so the guardian reports..

 http://politics.guardian.co.uk/byelections

...good news, i thought that this would be the benfit of selecting Wright