Voting by Income

[Alcon]

So why did Bush win the State?

My statement was hyperbolic.  It is a very poor state.  I should ask - is the $50,000 per year in individual income or 'household income'?

I think it is per person.

Over half the workers in America making over $50,000? I doubt it. I think it is household income. If someone isn't lazy like me, they can easily do an easy quick check at the census website.

You must consider that everyone who works doesn't vote. Turnout was what, like 60%? So, that cuts out 40% of potential voters, most of whom I would assume work. I think it is also safe to say that those who are more educated(and thus are more likely to have a higher income) are more likely to vote than those who are not as educated.

Yeah that tends to be true from what i hear. But, the reality of the matter is that people will almost always vote for whatever is good for them economicaly. Most people dont vote on social issues and adapt to the social issues of whatever party theyre in.

This is not entirely true. The state of West Virginia as a whole is a prime example.

[Gabu]

How exactly are you calculating this?

Take Alabama...


 Kerry Bush
<50K 50 48
>50K 78 22


Would the number on the map be...

26 (48-22)

or

54 (78-22-(50-48))

I basically consider 50% to be 0 (neither candidate has any significant advantage), and any tilt to Bush to be a negative number and any tilt to Kerry to be a positive number (this is purely arbitrary; you could do it either way).  I went purely off of the maps given, so some roundoff error is probably in effect.

For example, let's take Alabama, as it's the state that you considered:

Over $50,000:



In Alabama, these people went 70% Bush, so that's -20.

Under $50,000:



In Alabama, these people went 50% Kerry, so that's 0.

The difference between the second and the first is

d = 0 - (-20) = 20

20 is positive, so that's a 20% difference in favor of Kerry between low income people and higher income people.

I think this methodology makes sense, though I'm not 100% sure.  Tell me if something seems off.

[George W. Bush]

So why did Bush win the State?

Oh my god! That is terrible.

My statement was hyperbolic.  It is a very poor state.  I should ask - is the $50,000 per year in individual income or 'household income'?

I think it is per person.

Over half the workers in America making over $50,000? I doubt it. I think it is household income. If someone isn't lazy like me, they can easily do an easy quick check at the census website.

The median household income in 2003 was $43,318.

[nclib]

How exactly are you calculating this?

Take Alabama...


 Kerry Bush
<50K 50 48
>50K 78 22


Would the number on the map be...

26 (48-22)

or

54 (78-22-(50-48))

I basically consider 50% to be 0 (neither candidate has any significant advantage), and any tilt to Bush to be a negative number and any tilt to Kerry to be a positive number (this is purely arbitrary; you could do it either way).  I went purely off of the maps given, so some roundoff error is probably in effect.

For example, let's take Alabama, as it's the state that you considered:

Over $50,000:

In Alabama, these people went 70% Bush, so that's -20.


Under $50,000:

In Alabama, these people went 50% Kerry, so that's 0.

The difference between the second and the first is

d = 0 - (-20) = 20

20 is positive, so that's a 20% difference in favor of Kerry between low income people and higher income people.

I think this methodology makes sense, though I'm not 100% sure.  Tell me if something seems off.

Your methodology is not completely accurate, though I'm not sure if it would change any of the shadings on your map.

Let's say State X went for Bush with 72% in the over 50K map. But it went Bush with 58K in the under 50K map.

Your map would show it as >20, when the difference actually is 14 (>10).

Nice maps, though. How are you making them?

[nclib]

Here are some other maps that may be of interest.  They compare, state by state, people earning under the two thresholds and people earning over the two thresholds:

Threshold of $50,000:



Threshold of $100,000:



Key:

Percentages are calculated as follows:

(% on map) = (% under threshold) - (% over threshold).

  > 10% Bush
  < 10% (either)
  > 10% Kerry
  > 20% Kerry
  > 30% Kerry

Percentages of 50% for either candidates were considered to be equivalent.

Note: No, the color of Maine in the second map is not an error.  For whatever reason, richer people voted more Democratic than poorer people did in that state with the $100,000 threshold applied.  Nowhere else in any state did that happen.

Gabu, how are you making these maps?