Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[Tintrlvr]

Last PQ congress agreed to not hold a referendum in their first term, so I would assume their campaign wouldn't be about that.

Probably a wise move as every time this is brought up it hurts their numbers.  Both PLQ and CAQ are centre-right so better for them to focus on centre-left voters whether they are separatist or federalist.

Almost all of it has come from their strong support amongst millennials.  They are very left wing party so much as you saw Corbyn, Sanders, and Melenchon all do well amongst millennials same thing.  That being said they often poll in double digits in between elections, but on election day their strong numbers for whatever reason rarely seem to materialize.

Assume you meant to respond to MAINEiac. Agree in general, although the QS's polling currently is significantly stronger than pre-2014 (the best they did in any poll 2012-2014 was 11%, but recent polling has them in the mid-teens). That said, I can't see them breaking through province-wide. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve will likely go to the QS (was a surprise last time how close they came), and they have a decent shot at Rosemont as well. Laurier-Dorion is a possibility as well, especially if Sklavounos runs as an independent and splits the PLQ vote.

[Tintrlvr]

How come CAQ only get half as much support with non-Francophones as they do with Francophones?

Is this is largely a result of allophones not wanting to vote for a right wing party, or do they do they poorly with anglos as well?

CAQ is a pure laine party, these days even more so than the PQ, which includes a fair number of Francophone immigrants in Montreal and its suburbs (from places with French colonial histories: Haiti, Vietnam, west Africa, etc.). CAQ has never made any real effort to appeal to voters who are not pure laine, and the Anglophones and Allophones return the favor. Being anti-independence (for now) isn't enough to win over Anglophone and Allophone voters, nor does it help that Francois Legault, Mario Dumont and many other prominent figures in CAQ and its predecessor the ADQ were once pro-independence, so there is some reason to doubt CAQ's long-term sincerity on being opposed to independence. Plus, the PLQ is a broad-tent party that can appeal to wealthy suburbanite Anglophones, low-income urban Allophones and conservative Anglophones in the rural Outaouais reasonably well without CAQ seeming tempting to any of them.

[Tintrlvr]

Mainstreet just out with a poll for Quebec, have one for New Brunswick and Ontario tomorrow.

CAQ - 32%
PLQ - 31%
PQ - 18% (whoa! this is disastrous for them)
QS - 15%

CAQ has a 6 point lead amongst Francophones.  A strong tightening in the Quebec City region, but CAQ surges ahead in the rest of Quebec.  PLQ well out in front in the Montreal region with the CAQ in a distant second.  So it seems the PLQ rebounding a bit, but PQ in a death spiral and CAQ gaining primarily from them.  Could this be the beginning of the end of the PQ?

If PQ ends under 20% and QS over 10%, this will relaunch the merger/alliance talks.

Might be tough as PQ is very much a party with largely aging members while QS is much more youth oriented.  QS support is strongest in the urban core working class areas while PQ is more in the rural periphery of the province such as Gaspésie, Abitibi, Saguenay (they could even lose that with these numbers) and North Shore.  Still both are separatists and left leaning, but probably the best thing would be let the PQ wither away and instead have the CAQ for the right, Liberals for the middle, and QS for the left, otherwise similar to other provinces, just different labels.

The electoral alliance was refused by QS, I imagine for a future alliance or merger to be accepted the new deal would have to be more left wing, closer to them. It might be too far from  the center. It reminds me of the left wing version of the progressive conservative federally. Conservatives divide the right wiing vote and then regroup in a party that is further from the center and less appealing to the general public.

Part of the problem is clearly that the PQ does not view the QS as an equal and tends to offer "alliances" where the QS runs in just a handful of seats while the PQ gets everything else. Given current polling trends, the QS could end up with more seats than the PQ at the next election...

[Tintrlvr]

What I find fascinating is the ethnic issue divide on religion. With QS, the PQ, and CAQ all opposing allowing head coverings for officers, it's clear that their reasoning is not quite the same. QS and to an extent PQ seem more interested in Laicite, like in France. CAQ, because of some of their proposals like the values test, seem a bit more interested in isolating Quebec from immigration.

PQ has mixed feelings about immigration as well; there's a large opinion divide between the PQ in Montreal and the PQ in the rest of Quebec.

And CAQ isn't resistant to the Quebec-should-be-like-France narrative at all. They just don't want to be independent (currently).

[Tintrlvr]

Has there ever been demand for electoral reform in Quebec?

Last year all opposition parties have agreed on the idea of a mixed member proportional sytem based on regions. I don't know if they are all very committed to it of if they would agree on the details of the system.

Recently Legault said he was for a mixed proportional system. I guess the three opposition parties are still for it.

Seems bizarre that the PQ is all for electoral reform when FPTP is basically the party's only chance of ever forming government (although I suppose the spoiler effect the QS is having might change the calculus a bit). Also seems strange that the PLQ is in favor of FPTP when it is clearly the party hurt by far the most by FPTP due to its extremely heavy vote concentration in the west of Montreal.

[Tintrlvr]

Favourite part of the English debate: Lisee making his opening statement about how Quebec needs to be independent and French needing to be its sole language.

I guess if you aren't competing for Anglo votes you might as well own it.

I'm a bit surprised the PQ showed up to the English debate. Have they skipped English debates in the past?

[Tintrlvr]

QS wins Sherbrooke for its second seat outside of Montreal, and Jean-Lesage is looking very likely to be the third. Rouyn-Nouranda still very close. QS's results are really the only interesting thing left now - can they supplant the PQ?

By the way, has anyone noticed the comically huge margin for the PQ in Matane-Matapedia? This was a pretty safe PQ seat but surprising that they seem to have substantially *increased* their already very sizable margin there while tanking province-wide.

[Tintrlvr]

PQ also currently leading in Iles-de-la-Madeleine and Ungava, which would both be gains from the PLQ. Maybe they are destined to be the party of the extreme geographic fringe of Quebec.

[Tintrlvr]

Seats not yet called:

Abitibi-Ouest: CAQ ahead over PQ
Bourget: CAQ ahead over PQ and QS (three-way race)
Duplessis: PQ ahead over CAQ
Gaspe: PLQ ahead over PQ
Iles-de-la-Madeleine: PQ ahead over PLQ
Laval-des-Rapides: PLQ ahead over CAQ
Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue: QS ahead over CAQ
Ungava: PQ ahead over CAQ and PLQ (three-way race)

PQ is in a lot of competitive races still. They could go as high as 13 seats if they sweep their remaining close races. Bourget is their last shot to win anything in Montreal.

[Tintrlvr]

PLQ wins Gaspe by 132 votes over the PQ with all polls reporting. Could potentially be in recount territory (not sure what that would be?) but seems unlikely that a recount would change anything.

[Tintrlvr]

So did that "progressive federalist" boutique party NDPQ crack 0.5% of the vote?

Even where they ran former MPs (like Pauline Ayala in Rosemont), they seem to have gotten joke results. Haven't seen province-wide totals, though; 0.5% is still plausible.

[Tintrlvr]

Is the party who won the province version  of the Conservative Party

No. CAQ is a moderate right-populist Quebec nationalist (but not, at least openly, pro-independence) party. There is no close equivalent to the Conservative Party provincially in Quebec.

[Tintrlvr]

There are two seats left uncalled currently (Bourget and Laval-des-Rapides), but there are only a handful of polls outstanding in them (1 in Bourget, 2 in Laval-des-Rapides), so I'm willing to call them for the CAQ and PLQ, respectively. Which means the final seat totals are:

CAQ: 74
PLQ: 32
QS: 10
PQ: 9

Popular vote totals will move a bit still. QS has been gaining on the PQ all night and are now within 1% of the PQ's popular vote total at a bit over 16% (PQ a bit over 17%, which is worse than the party's popular vote when it was a marginal party way back in 1970 and an unmitigated disaster); does not seem likely that the QS can catch the PQ, but in the end they are at least quite close in addition to pipping the PQ in seats. PLQ is currently a hair below 25%, and it seems likely but not certain to stay that way, which any way you slice it is a really embarrassing popular vote total for them, too (although their votes were somewhat more efficient this time than they have been in the past; they won fewer seats on a lot more votes in 1976, e.g.). CAQ currently rounding down to 37% for the first majority with less than 40% of the vote in Quebec.

[Tintrlvr]

trudeau is done. liberals lost everything this year: ontario, new brunswick, quebec...

The PLQ and the federal Liberals are not really connected in a meaningful way (beyond both having bases among Anglophone and Allophone Quebeckers), and many PLQ politicians are federal Conservatives (with a handful being federal NDPers). This result doesn't impact Trudeau at all.

[Tintrlvr]

I was always interested how CBC or other Canadian TV networks make calls on the overall outcome of the election.

On Monday a CAQ govt was projected 15-20 mins after poll close, a majority projected after 35 mins. While it was not close, this still seems pretty quick.

No doubt they have complex models, but in Australia elections are not called unless one party leads (after adjusting for matched booths) in a majority of seats where the vote is reported.

In Canada they seem to project winners with very little of the vote counted. Exit polls also don't seem to be part of the set-up either.

Does anyone have any insight on this?

Australia uses ranked ballots so winning the first round doesn't mean one will win thus why it takes longer whereas Canada uses FTFP. They can call them quickly since as soon as all ridings are reporting a few polls you can see trends. Also based on past results and pre-election polling, they look at key ridings and if the party is winning in the ridings they need to in order to win they can call it.

Also, if it was a close election, it would take much longer to call. But this election was not close. I imagine elections like NSW 2011 were called quickly after polls closed, too.

[Tintrlvr]

Finally (?), the PQ will have 10 seats, as they gained Gaspé in a recount (went from Liberal +132 to PQ +41). Seems like a big shift, but there was various irregularities, like the infamous Box 61, who reported all its votes as Liberal, which was improbable.

Recount in Îles-de-la-Madeleine went from PQ+18 to PQ+15.

PQ asked a recount in Ungava (CAQ+44), the judge didn't rule yet on whether it will happen.

Standings are now:
CAQ 74
PLQ 29 (-3)
PQ 10 (+1)
QS 10
Ind 1 (+1, Guy Ouellette (Chomedey) having been expelled from Liberals for leaking information to PQ and CAQ)
Vacant 1 (+1, Couillard)

Lol re Oullette

That's David Emerson speed for someone to leave their party.

Did the PLQ know he was leaking during the campaign? Is CAQ going to take him in or was this just career suicide? (He seems, as a CAQ MLA, about as likely as David Emerson was to win reelection regardless, though.)

[Tintrlvr]

Finally (?), the PQ will have 10 seats, as they gained Gaspé in a recount (went from Liberal +132 to PQ +41). Seems like a big shift, but there was various irregularities, like the infamous Box 61, who reported all its votes as Liberal, which was improbable.

Recount in Îles-de-la-Madeleine went from PQ+18 to PQ+15.

PQ asked a recount in Ungava (CAQ+44), the judge didn't rule yet on whether it will happen.

Standings are now:
CAQ 74
PLQ 29 (-3)
PQ 10 (+1)
QS 10
Ind 1 (+1, Guy Ouellette (Chomedey) having been expelled from Liberals for leaking information to PQ and CAQ)
Vacant 1 (+1, Couillard)

Lol re Oullette

That's David Emerson speed for someone to leave their party.

Did the PLQ know he was leaking during the campaign? Is CAQ going to take him in or was this just career suicide? (He seems, as a CAQ MLA, about as likely as David Emerson was to win reelection regardless, though.)

The leak happened in November 2016, it was about potential corruption by a wealthy Liberal businessman. The facy he leaked got known during the last week of the campaign.

It was neither, he is a former policeman and I think he decided his mission was to fight corruption, no matter where it was.

Ah. Maybe he'll stick around as a principled independent, then.

[Tintrlvr]

Could a right-of-center party win in Quebec (particularly in something like a runoff) or would a lot of things have to change for that to happen?

Of course! Considering 60% of Quebecers just voted for a right of centre party.

I noted several pages back that Quebec was not the left-wing paradise some believed it to be and was kind of cast aside. I don't think I'm wrong in believing that.

Up until this election, it was tough to really gage where Quebecers stood on the political spectrum.  Generally if a federalist, you voted PLQ no matter where you stood on the political spectrum while if a separatist you voted PQ regardless of where you stood on the spectrum.  True PQ was seen as a centre-left and PLQ as centrist but both were broad coalitions more united on where they stood in terms of Quebec being in Canada or not.  Somewhat akin to Northern Ireland as although DUP and UUP are on the right while Sinn Fein and SD&L are on the left, it seems people vote more along sectarian lines as I am sure Northern Ireland has some right wing Catholics and left wing Protestants.  2018 was probably the first election where voting by ideology as opposed to separatism vs. federalism dominated although it does seem amongst Anglophones, they pretty much went overwhelmingly PLQ regardless of where they stood on the political spectrum, but amongst Francophones you got a clearer picture.

I think it's still a stretch to think of this election as being on "ideological" grounds. (Some rambling follows, not sure this all makes sense but glad to discuss.)

The problem is that the PQ doesn't stand for anything except separatism (especially in the minds of the public), so voting for them is only really an option if you want to vote for independence. Given the waning support for independence, their vote declined, but that doesn't really represent an ideological shift other than on the independence-no independence axis (specifically excluding federalism there since the CAQ is clearly a nationalist party even if not associated with independence). Even though CAQ is clearly to their right, voters switched from the PQ to CAQ not out of an actual shift to the right but because they were done with explicitly pro-independence parties.

Furthermore, while the QS is clearly on the left, the QS is still perceived as too far on the left to break through to being a contender to actually form government just yet, which is probably a fair perception on the part of voters; the QS is much further on the left than the CAQ is on the right and still consists largely of student radicals at the organizational level, though this is changing. So, yes, voters switched from the PQ to the QS in part on ideological grounds, but the failure of the QS to be a serious contender for government doesn't say anything about Quebec ideologically (except that it doesn't consist primarily of student radicals, hardly a surprise to anyone). And I would also say that part of the shift is also tactical unwind as voters who previously tactically voted PQ (but, while not being opposed to independence, didn't consider independence all that important) as the "best" party of the serious choices switched away once the PQ was no longer a serious contender for government.

The movement from the PLQ to the CAQ is actually on nationalist rather than ideological grounds: nearly all Francophone voters are Quebec nationalist to some degree, just a lot of them don't like independence or the disturbances that it is perceived to bring and were always waiting for a nationalist party that wasn't pro-independence to come along and be a serious contender for government, especially in an environment where independence isn't perceived to be a threat. So this was a natural shift for a circumstance where the polarization isn't independence-no independence but is still fundamentally on nationalist grounds (just that there is a natural nationalist majority and unless the nationalist vote splinters along independence or ideological lines, the federalists can't win).

The most ideological shift is probably the small PLQ to QS shift (though quite prominent in a few ridings), where federalist left-wingers voted for a nationalist left-wing party over a federalist centrist/center-right party for fundamentally ideological reasons. But PLQ->QS switchers are maybe 2-3% of the vote, total, province-wide.

[Tintrlvr]

LeDevoir has an interactive Poll-by-poll results:
https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/539627/cartographique-de-la-victoire-caquiste?fbclid=IwAR0RbPLG_JdZo9hUAP9eBf1RvJaUZesVBvULl5zCctcMISHYTjiWuDvNdxk

And election-atlas has their maps updated to:
http://www.election-atlas.ca/qc/

The stark boundary formed by the railroad tracks in Laurier-Dorion continues to be dramatic. Fontecilla got demolished south of the tracks despite a solid victory across the entire riding.

[Tintrlvr]

I doubt they vote, given life there is as stringent than in Saudi Arabia. The few that did have been merged into poll 0.

But life should be relatively similar to such places in the US, and people there do vote. In fact the stringent lifestyle means that the leadership can control the votes causing the political power of the community to increase.

It depends on the leadership. There are some Hasidic subgroups in the US that don't vote or that didn't vote until relatively recently.