*Official Election 2005 Results Thread*

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, if everything fails, this will have been quite an election. 8 Propositions, which fail, and 0 Candidates. Thanks for wasting $60 million of our money, Arnold.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Interestingly, Democrats got pasted in VA state house races. With the GOP also taking the Lt Gov and AG race (though the latter will feature a recount), Kilgore's loss looks like a failure on his part, not some kind of massive anti-GOP groundswell.

Though the CA initiatives are struggling, the leftist efforts in Ohio were blasted.

Democrats are going to spin these various votes rather vigorously, but there is no "there" there. Heck, in VA the GOP did better in 2005 than in 2001, and in NJ Corzine was never expected to lose and not widely expected to face a close race. The props in CA are doing better than many polls indicated, though losing is losing.

Prop 73 was up in basically every poll, and Props 74 and 75 had been up in most. If only 1 of Arnold's 6 Propositions he supported pass, that'll be pretty bad. 0 would be even worse.

[AuH2O]

But some are more important politically than others.

Also, bad news for Arnold does not equal some wider political meaning. Arnold is just one Governor, and he can't even run for President.

[Alcon]

Can someone quantify how pasted the Dems were in the VA and NJ state legislative races (if they were in NJ)?

[Ebowed]

Mississippi and North Dakota have it right, though it would preferable if the consent of the fetus/embryo about to be killed were also necessary.

Great, why don't you read some about your utopian world where abortion is illegal here:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/10/31/19619/824

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This sounds more like an argument for the morning after pill, though there are also forms of contraception that take effect before sex to prevent a pregnancy in the first place-- I don't understand why they didn't use condoms?

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I thought she had this boyfriend, so she wouldn't be "alone."  Anyway, she could have used contraception or not had sex in the first place.  I'm not sympathetic with this character at all.  I am feeling more pain for the kid that was the production of this irresponsible woman's behavior, who never had a chance to live past his birth.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

But some are more important politically than others.

Also, bad news for Arnold does not equal some wider political meaning. Arnold is just one Governor, and he can't even run for President.

So if the 5th -7th largest economy in the world doesn't matter to you (depends on exchange rate), then why the hell are you posting about California?

[AuH2O]

Can someone quantify how pasted the Dems were in the VA and NJ state legislative races (if they were in NJ)?

I may have spoken too soon. I guess the GOP had so many seats already that, though they won a lot of close races, some of them shouldn't have been close.

Right now it looks like Dems are +1 in VA.

note: an independent defeated a GOP incumbent by 44 votes, though that could change with a recount or absentees.

[Politico]

Kaine's victory backs up the argument that VA is probably the southern state, excluding Florida, that's most likely to go to the Democrats in the '08 presidential election.

Given the right opponent and circumstances, I can see Gore carrying VA and TN in '08. Edwards and Warner would also most likely be competitive in both states.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Kaine's victory backs up the argument that VA is probably the most likely southern state (excluding Florida) to go to the Democrats in the '08 presidential election.

If Warner is the nominee it might be the most winnable.
However, if he isn't, Missouri might be more winnable.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Very weird, for a while Prop 75 was running about 4 points better than 73. Now they're almost equal, 49.4% and 49.6%. They could end up with almost the same vote totals.

[Politico]

Arnold is toast if none of these pass. Tonight may cause him to pull a Ventura and opt not to run for re-election. Democrats certainly do not want to see Arnold make another prime time speech at the Republican National Convention in 2008.

[AuH2O]

OK, NJ has some kind of weird assembly election system, where each party has 2 candidates and there's a runoff with the top 2. We won't know much until the runoff in a month, then.

In VA, basically the House of Delegates was a wash, with Kaine probably responsible for the Dems picking up 1 seat (there are 100 total). A Kilgore win probably meant GOP +1 or 2.

In local NH elections, the GOP apparently did very well, but I have no numbers.

[Jake]

Kaine's victory backs up the argument that VA is probably the southern state, excluding Florida, that's most likely to go to the Democrats in the '08 presidential election.

How so? Warner's victory in 2001 and further successes and high approval ratings still kept Virginia solidly Republican on both the state, national, and presidential levels. Winning one of three elections this time around, combined with zero of two Senate seats, puts you nowhere near winning Virginia, except with the current Governor at the top of the ticket.

[jimrtex]

Any info on Virginia an Jersey legislaures?

House of Delegates:

R 58 (-3), D 39 (+2), I 3 (+1)

GOP Gains:
6 - SW along WV border west of Radford.  Democrat incombent had very narrow lead in 2003.
99 East, Lower Potomac - Cheasapeake.  About 30% gain in seat where Democrat incumbent did not defend, so assume rural seat with longtime conservative Dem retiring.

Dem Gains:
32 N, NE Loudon.  In 2003, 52% GOP with independent 12%, 47% in 2005.
41 N, SC Fairfax.  In 2003, this was GOP vs 2 independents.  It appears that losing independent in 2003 was GOP candidate in 2005.
67 N, E Loudon, W Fairfax.   GOP uncontested in in 2003.  D 56%, R 41% (not incumbent) in 2005.
87 SE, N Norfolk city.  GOP uncontested in 2003.  2005: D 50, R 38 (non-incumbent), I 12.

Independent Gains:
68 Central.  W Richmond city, N Chesterfield, roughly equal parts in and out of Richmond, with 2400 vote margins cancelling out to produce 44 vote margin out of 27,000 margin.  Republican incumbent was unopposed in 2003.

The other two Independent seats are in rural C Virginia, one between Charlottesville and Lynchburg and areas to the east; the other between Lynchburg and Roanoke (probably includes suburbs of both).  They were not contested in 2005;  In 2003 both candidates drew a Democrat opponent.

[AuH2O]

I thought 87 had a Dem incumbent, Paula Miller? I'm pretty sure that's the case.

Also... Kaine straight up won Virginia Beach. Wow. Bolling and McDonnell, however, won solidly-- which was critical to their statewide wins (especially McDonnell).

[Politico]

Kaine's victory backs up the argument that VA is probably the southern state, excluding Florida, that's most likely to go to the Democrats in the '08 presidential election.

How so? Warner's victory in 2001 and further successes and high approval ratings still kept Virginia solidly Republican on both the state, national, and presidential levels. Winning one of three elections this time around, combined with zero of two Senate seats, puts you nowhere near winning Virginia, except with the current Governor at the top of the ticket.

Let's not forget that Kerry, a Massachusetts liberal, managed to get 46% of the vote in VA last year without spending a dollar or a minute in the state. Unless Allen is the GOP's nominee, it's going to be a battleground state in '08.

Kaine, a Democrat who opposes the death penalty, wasn't supposed to win. Kilgore had a ten point lead on him just a couple of months ago. Kaine managed to pull off a nearly sixteen point swing in two months, and you're trying to tell me that Democrats can't be competitive in the state at the national level? There's no doubt about it: VA is a purple state now, and its Democrats know how to get out the vote.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Arnold is toast if none of these pass. Tonight may cause him to pull a Ventura and opt not to run for re-election. Democrats certainly do not want to see Arnold make another prime time speech at the Republican National Convention in 2008.

Once again, we see what your position is really about.

Arnold tries to save California.  All you can think of is politics.

Very sad.

[AuH2O]

Kaine's victory backs up the argument that VA is probably the southern state, excluding Florida, that's most likely to go to the Democrats in the '08 presidential election.

How so? Warner's victory in 2001 and further successes and high approval ratings still kept Virginia solidly Republican on both the state, national, and presidential levels. Winning one of three elections this time around, combined with zero of two Senate seats, puts you nowhere near winning Virginia, except with the current Governor at the top of the ticket.

Let's not forget that Kerry managed to get 46% of the vote in VA last year without spending a dollar or a minute in the state. Unless Allen is the GOP's nominee, it's going to be a battleground state in '08.

Kaine, a Democrat who opposes the death penalty, wasn't supposed to win. Kilgore had a ten point lead on him just a couple of months ago. Kaine managed to pull off a nearly sixteen point swing in two months, and you're trying to tell me that Democrats can't be competitive in the state at the national level? There's no doubt about it: VA is a purple state now, and its Democrats know how to get out the vote.

A lot less purple than PA, WI, MN, and other states Democrats rely on.

A Democrat will only win VA in 2008 if it's not a real close race... unless Warner is the nominee, in which case its hard to say.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Kaine's victory backs up the argument that VA is probably the southern state, excluding Florida, that's most likely to go to the Democrats in the '08 presidential election.

How so? Warner's victory in 2001 and further successes and high approval ratings still kept Virginia solidly Republican on both the state, national, and presidential levels. Winning one of three elections this time around, combined with zero of two Senate seats, puts you nowhere near winning Virginia, except with the current Governor at the top of the ticket.

Let's not forget that Kerry managed to get 46% of the vote in VA last year without spending a dollar or a minute in the state. Unless Allen is the GOP's nominee, it's going to be a battleground state in '08.

Kaine, a Democrat who opposes the death penalty, wasn't supposed to win. Kilgore had a ten point lead on him just a couple of months ago. Kaine managed to pull off a nearly sixteen point swing in two months, and you're trying to tell me that Democrats can't be competitive in the state at the national level? There's no doubt about it: VA is a purple state now, and its Democrats know how to get out the vote.

Virginia has had plenty of Democrat Governors before who won by higher margins than what happened tonight.

Public service announcement for our Democratic friends:
YALL HAD THIS SEAT BEFORE.  THIS IS NOT A PICK-UP FOR YOU.  YOU BARELY HELD ON TO A SEAT YOU ALEADY HAD.  END TRANSMISSION.

[Politico]

Public service announcement for our Democratic friends:
YALL HAD THIS SEAT BEFORE.  THIS IS NOT A PICK-UP FOR YOU.  YOU BARELY HELD ON TO A SEAT YOU ALEADY HAD.  END TRANSMISSION.

That's funny you'd say that the Democrats "barely held on to the seat" after all of the talk you Republicans gave the nation about Bush having a mandate after he was re-elected by a much slimmer margin.

Kaine won by nearly 6 points in a race he shouldn't have won.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Arnold is toast if none of these pass. Tonight may cause him to pull a Ventura and opt not to run for re-election. Democrats certainly do not want to see Arnold make another prime time speech at the Republican National Convention in 2008.

Once again, we see what your position is really about.

Arnold tries to save California.  All you can think of is politics.

Very sad.

Arnold's rejected propositions were about giving him and his corporate masters more power, not improving California.

So putting redistricting in the hands of an independent group of judges to prevent political bias is giving power to supposed "corporate masters"?  Puhleeeze....

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Arnold is toast if none of these pass. Tonight may cause him to pull a Ventura and opt not to run for re-election. Democrats certainly do not want to see Arnold make another prime time speech at the Republican National Convention in 2008.

It's looking like there's a good chance that will happen. With 71.1% reporting, Prop 73 has 49.2%, Prop 75 has 49.5%, and the others are doing much worse.

We just need returns yet to come in from Los Angeles county to cancel out returns from more conservative areas. Los Angeles county has 21.4% reporting, and is currently going 47.5% for Prop 73 and 43.6% for Prop 75.

Arnold is toast if none of these pass. Tonight may cause him to pull a Ventura and opt not to run for re-election. Democrats certainly do not want to see Arnold make another prime time speech at the Republican National Convention in 2008.

Once again, we see what your position is really about.

Arnold tries to save California.  All you can think of is politics.

Very sad.

No, Arnold's Props would have been very bad for California, particularly Props 73-76.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

No, Arnold's Props would have been very bad for California, particularly Props 73-76.

Uh.. yeah... as ya'll are doing so well financially now.   You were offered reform  and failed to accept it.  It is your state's fate, and I guess we'll just have to leave you to your own demise.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Counties with a lot of outstanding ballots:

Count / not reporting / Reg. voters / Prop 73 / Prop 75
Alameda 70% of 704k / 32% / 32%
Contra Costa 45% of 492k / 41% / 45%
Los Angeles 73% of 3,842k / 47.5% / 43.6%
Orange 24.6% of 1,491k / 60% / 64%
Riverside 18% of 776k / 60% / 54%
San Bernaardino 36.2% of 753k / 58% / 50%
San Diego 12.8% of 1,383k / 55% / 58%
Santa Clara 14.3% of 762k/ 38% / 42%

Statewide 24.9% of 15,891k / 49.2% / 49.1%


I think we took them all down.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Arnold is toast if none of these pass. Tonight may cause him to pull a Ventura and opt not to run for re-election. Democrats certainly do not want to see Arnold make another prime time speech at the Republican National Convention in 2008.

Once again, we see what your position is really about.

Arnold tries to save California.  All you can think of is politics.

Very sad.

Arnold's rejected propositions were about giving him and his corporate masters more power, not improving California.

So putting redistricting in the hands of an independent group of judges to prevent political bias is giving power to supposed "corporate masters"?  Puhleeeze....

Putting redistricting in the hands of retired judges who were mostly appointed by Republicans would have had the same effect on CA as the recent redistricting in TX. It would have helped Tom "Scandal of the Day" DeLay maintain control of the House in '06. So, yes, it would have helped Arnold's "corporate masters."

You do know that the DeLay thing was done in the state legislature, right?
See - that's the way ya'll redistrict now.  You do it the Delay way.  Arnold offered you reform.