Beto O’Rourke 2020 campaign megathread

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The two most important states in 2020 will be Florida & Wisconsin. If Beto were to become the nominee I'd like to see him pick the man who came within half a percent of winning the race for governor of Florida, Andrew Gillum. Together, they would comprise a talented (and both youthful and highly energetic) team. Of course, the primary thing lacking on this ticket would be a woman. Amendment 4 (Voting Rights Restoration) having been passed and now implemented in Florida, could create a situation where a narrow loss in '18 becomes a narrow win in '20. Beto would need to constantly campaign in Wisconsin and Gillum would need to double down on Florida. WINNING EITHER STATE SHOULD BE ENOUGH (OVER 270 ELECTORS) TO SEND THEM TO THE WHITE HOUSE. YOUTHFUL AND ENERGETIC DEM TICKETS WIN!

Gillum is taking the lead in Florida...making a huge play to be the Dem VP.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/21/politics/andrew-gillum-florida-voter-registration-group-2020/index.html

Gillum is making a play for either Gov or Senate 2022- probably Governor.  This is a way for him to stay relevant, and also increase his chances of winning in 2022 via more Dem voters.  Pretty smart actually. 

He's not vying for VP- as a Black Male is probably the least likely Demo to be VP in 2020.  It seems almost any Dem Nom will be looking to balance the ticket regarding sex and race.  And the most likely nominees at this point are either a White male or Black female (therefore most likely VP is a minority female, or white male).

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He's hired Jen O'Malley Dillon as his campaign manager.

This is probably a pretty smart hire.  She seems to be a data/ analytics expert, which will be important for a large grassroots style campaign that will need to make sure all of those supporters actually get to the polls.  I imagine she will also put some focus on counting delegate, something ppl thought Beto has failed to put much focus on.

Beto is someone who sees the Big Picture first, Details 2nd (most people do the opposite) - so it should be a good fit to have a campaign manager who is really strong regarding campaign data & details.

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https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1109160722192306178

This crowd at USC though!

Of course the University of Spoiled Children supports Beto.

Its University of South Carolina... not University of Southern Cal  (or were you saying UofSouthCarolina   students are spoiled children)?

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https://www.thedailybeast.com/beto-orourke-was-rare-vote-against-tough-on-russia-bills-after-invasion-of-ukraine

Beto's terrible foreign policy history finally getting some mainstream attention, even if it is a bit of a rag.

Quotes from the article:

"Recently, O’Rourke has gone further than some of his rivals on the issue of Russian election meddling. He has claimed it is “beyond a shadow of a doubt” that President Trump attempted to collude with Russia during the 2016 election. In 2017, he joined several other Democratic lawmakers in pressuring Trump to affirm U.S. commitment to NATO’s foundational principle of mutual defense, as the president questioned the transatlantic defense pact."

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"Ellehuus mentioned a candidate O’Rourke may be trying to emulate now, by way of understanding his early congressional votes. “You saw this with Obama, this idea we could confront the Russians when we had to but cooperate with them on certain areas,” she said."

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(In House Arms Services Committee Hearing)
“I'm out of time,” O’Rourke responded, “but what I'm really interested in knowing for the future is what potential threats are we generating by interventions in these two areas, Syria and Ukraine.”

These questions could easily be interpreted as a skeptical legislator simply doing due diligence about a significant foreign policy issue.

O’Rourke noted some interventions “make a lot of sense at the time,” bringing up the Islamist militants that the U.S. backed to fight the Soviet Union. “We didn’t look at… The second or third order consequences,” he said.

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Either way, a very strong number for someone with relatively low name ID. He's gonna have more than enough money to compete heavily.

Can he use any left over money from his senate campaign?

He donated the remaining $4.5Million from his Senate Campaign to the Texas Dem Party. 

Pretty good sign that either that he probably wasn't Planning on running for President During his Senate Campaign or Immediately after losing to Cruz.... as many have accused.

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Unique contributions wasn't unique donors. Of course they dump this on a Friday.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1109293384005570560

If discrepancy really was a result of people Donating an Average $47... and then a portion of them also Buying merchandise (which was heavily visible on his website)... Then this is a complete non-issue.

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Unique contributions wasn't unique donors. Of course they dump this on a Friday.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1109293384005570560

Your fear is showing

It's quite obvious who the Bernie people fear right now.

Likely because Beto will be Obama 2.0 and compromise on every single thing? He already backed off Medicare for All, and don't give me the stupid pragmatism argument.

I support Medicare for All and so does Beto, but he's realistic as well. We don't have the votes in Congress. The Medicare for America Act would be a massive improvement over what we have now.  That is something that could potentially become law with a Democratic President. It's not a debate over pragmatism. It's a debate over realism. The failure in the ACA was the inability to get a public option through, but that was because traitor Joe Liberman f-cked us over.

If the Republican Party in Congress had even the slightest interest in any form of compromise, I think this would be a good point. The fact is, though, they'll be ready to unilaterally oppose any President with a (D) next to their name and try to prevent them from getting anything done. If Democrats try to cede a bit and move to the center with the current Republican Party, this inevitably happens:

Omw this is spot on.

Supporting Universal Healthcare via ACA, MAA, Public Option + reinstating Profit cap on Insurance Companies, etc ... This isn't just about what can get through congress- its also about putting the mechanism/ structure in place so that a more progressive form could actually be achieved and implemented in the future. 

Also is not just about compromising with Republicans- its a strategy that by implementing something that is supported by even the overwhelming majority of Republican voters (who can be used to put pressure on republicans in congress) you move the ball forward and achieve a system that people are comfortable with- and makes taking the next step several years in the future, a lot easier to garner support for.

The whole argument of Republican's in congress will not cooperate etc is so completely sort sided.  Not only does it not recognize the strategy involving Rep/Ind voters- it also doesn't acknowledge that if such a middle step is achieved- well then Republicans have in fact not moved our healthcare system further right- as such an achievement (even if a middle step) is in and of itself more progressive than what we have not. (ie- the ball moved further left).

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A bit more evidence that going by "Beto" was not a ploy to make himself more electable 40 years in the future...

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6 months from now- I have little doubt that Beto will have much higher favorability- as the average voter (not Atlas) get exposed to and get to know Beto, his natural likeability will drive this rating up.

Bernie will always likely have pretty high favorability- as many Dems will say they like Bernie because he says what he thinks etc... but they would never vote for him & think he would be very easily branded in a way that makes many voters scared of a Bernie Presidency wrecking the economy, etc (fairly branded or not).  Similarly Biden will also likely continue to have high favorability even though many who hold that view think its time for a younger Nominee. (Bernie also has to content with age as well).

That said- The poll (of all voters, not just Dems) that was widely circulated on news shows a week or two ago had only Joe biden with a Net Positive... with Beto in 2nd with a Neutral (same # of favorable/unfavorable).

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I wish Beto had not joined the bandwagon of boycotting AIPAC.  It would have been better to attend and give a speech saying what he thinks (even if disagreeing on many issues).  Especially with the mantra of go everywhere, talk to everyone, not writing off anyone, etc.  (and it could help to lessen the untrue narrative that Beto is weak on policy details).

I also think it would be helpful for Beto to do more interviews (on set and off) with MSNBC & CNN.  After all this is where many primary voters get their news & it would help him control the narrative they are airing (since much of the narrative is unfairly portraying that Beto is weak on understanding policy etc). Especially Morning Shows, where there is a more conversational setting, where viewers would really get exposed to the candidates personality in addition to policies  Such a setting is why, like it or not, going on Morning Joe (especially in person) can have a lot of influence among primary voters.

CBS/NBC/ABC morning shows can also be important in this regard.

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I wish Beto had not joined the bandwagon of boycotting AIPAC.  It would have been better to attend and give a speech saying what he thinks (even if disagreeing on many issues).  Especially with the mantra of go everywhere, talk to everyone, not writing off anyone, etc.  (and it could help to lessen the untrue narrative that Beto is weak on policy details).

I also think it would be helpful for Beto to do more interviews (on set and off) with MSNBC & CNN.  After all this is where many primary voters get their news & it would help him control the narrative they are airing (since much of the narrative is unfairly portraying that Beto is weak on understanding policy etc). Especially Morning Shows, where there is a more conversational setting, where viewers would really get exposed to the candidates personality in addition to policies  Such a setting is why, like it or not, going on Morning Joe (especially in person) can have a lot of influence among primary voters.

CBS/NBC/ABC morning shows can also be important in this regard.

-1) Unless I’m missing something (always possible), I don’t think O’Rourke seems particularly anti-Israel so much as he is anti-Netanyahu (which is fine by me).  He hasn’t (AFAIK) expressed support for any anti-Semitic hate groups like BDS, for one thing.  

-2) No one is boycotting AIPAC.  AIPAC made the short-sighted and troubling decision not to invite any of the Democratic Presidential candidates to speak even as they invited Pence and Pompeo (although tbf, Pelosi and Schumer were both invited).

I'm not saying Beto is anti-Israel at all.  I'm saying that he joined with other Dems to not speak at AIPAC.  But I think it would be better to speak at AIPAC (I assume all Dems in the Primary have the opportunity to do so if they would like to).  And address anywhere he has disagreements with Netanyahu or whoever (or address whatever reason is behind deciding to not speak at AIPAC).

And if the candidates were not invited to speak... then why all the news stories saying various candidates are deciding to not speak at AIPAC.

But of course I don't think Beto is Anti-semitic at all.  I apologize if I was unclear in the point I was trying to make.

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6 months from now- I have little doubt that Beto will have much higher favorability- as the average voter (not Atlas) get exposed to and get to know Beto, his natural likeability will drive this rating up.

Bernie will always likely have pretty high favorability- as many Dems will say they like Bernie because he says what he thinks etc... but they would never vote for him & think he would be very easily branded in a way that makes many voters scared of a Bernie Presidency wrecking the economy, etc (fairly branded or not).  Similarly Biden will also likely continue to have high favorability even though many who hold that view think its time for a younger Nominee. (Bernie also has to content with age as well).

That said- The poll (of all voters, not just Dems) that was widely circulated on news shows a week or two ago had only Joe biden with a Net Positive... with Beto in 2nd with a Neutral (same # of favorable/unfavorable).

What makes you think that voters would believe that a Bernie presidency would not be good for the economy and are you talking about Democratic voters or voters at-large?

I was talking about all voters- but specifically a lot of Ind & moderate Republicans & moderate Dems... who do think this (granted I know there are some in this category who like Bernie... but many swing voters think Bernie would lead to huge spending, etc... which I agree is funny considering how much Trump's Tax Cut cost).

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Hmm, its odd. We are on week 2 of Beto's announcement(week 3 by Thursday), and Beto still hasnt had a polling bounce. Im starting to think his strategy of announcing later than most of the competition may have diminished his possible gains.

I would wait to see how his 3 rallies in one day go. Then, the customary few days to a week for it to trickle into the polls. But yeah, he hasn’t really gooten a big jump.

I agree- its hard to tell if getting in early would've been a better strategy.  But I think in the end it doesn't matter b/c I think Beto's rise in the poll will be a steady climb as he travels around the country and voters get to know him- similar to his rise in Texas, which took a little time to catch on.

The polls will remain fluid for a while anyway as people go back and forth between candidates.  Support will likely not harden until we start getting into the debates and closer to the actual Primaries.

Also- although he has been in the news a lot- much of the coverage has been negative from people like Joe & Mika going overboard regarding policy details or "apologizing" too much, etc.  Also many news figures who seem to be Kamala supporters or Warren or whoever- have been overly harsh on Beto.  But all this will eventually die down- especially when Biden gets in the race (he will be the new target).  And then people will be able to form their opinion of Beto without the constant double guessing him from the media.  This will especially be true regarding smaller early states like Iowa, NV & NH where he will the chance to meet a lot of voters over the next year.

But I do think it would be help to win some of these news talking heads by going on their shows- like morning joe, etc.  They are also much more positive about candidates after they come on their shows and they get to know them. Also other cable news shows, and network shows like The View, etc. (It also gives viewers to get to know him in a conversational type setting... after all, presidential politics is now the new reality show- so the cable & news shows let viewers get to know the "characters" better).

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I hope the weather is nice in Texas this weekend.  Beto needs to have huge rallies on Saturday (or at least huge rallies would be helpful). After all I think the mark to beat is 20k (I think Kamala had 20k & Bernie had 12k).

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Fault some of the media for the AIPAC boycott narrative. 

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I hope the weather is nice in Texas this weekend.  Beto needs to have huge rallies on Saturday (or at least huge rallies would be helpful). After all I think the mark to beat is 20k (I think Kamala had 20k & Bernie had 12k).

Is this just referring to openings? Because Bernie got 16K in SF.

I was referring to opening... but 12k would be the same as 16k in the point I was making- that so far Kamala has the largest rally, which will therefore be what all subsequent ones are compared against.

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Facebook event RSVPs:

El Paso - 1.8K going + 4.5K interested = 6.3K

Houston - 2K going + 7.4K interested = 9.4K

Austin - 2.9K going + 11K interested = 13.9K

Obviously an imperfect measure, but it does lend some insight. Expect numbers to change as we get closer to Saturday.

If the actual attendance doubles (the combined number) by Saturday... it would definitely be a success.  Hopefully a lot of people who do not rsvp will end up just showing up on Saturday.

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Why have almost all of the primary candidates (other than Beto), contacted or had a meeting with Stacey Abrams?  And if all of the others have, wonder why Beto hasn't followed suit?

Per CNN- apparently most of the Senators have met with Abrams (probably around the same time when she was in Washington recently)... and Hickenlooper, Buttigieg, and maybe someone else have contacted her via a phone call?

Not that I really understand the need for Beto to call Abrams at this point considering he's in the middle of rolling out his campaign.  But I do think (especially given his likeability and seemingly ability to sort of win people over) Beto could benefit a good amount... from contacting a lot of the Dem Personalities , Politicians, etc ... as well as a many of the national media personalities/ players, etc.  This would help cut off much of the nonsense about Beto not yet having a 500 page policy dissertation written out yet.  It would be a lot harder to make these meaningless digs at Beto (or any candidate) after getting to know him via an in person meeting or an on-set interview, etc.  

Pete is really utilizing the valuable publicity that comes from becoming sort of a regular on the various cable news shows.  Hopefully, after Beto's kickoff rallies, he will also become a frequent guest on Cable News shows as well (this would put him in control of the Beto narrative on these show- in addition to gaining supporters from people watching).

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Don't get me wrong- I'm definitely a fan of Abrams, & I think she does have an x-factor. I just wasn't sure why all of the candidate were calling her, meeting with her etc?

(the only time I was less than impressed with Abrams was her concession speech which I thought did a huge disservice to Abrams & the tone didn't represent who she is as a politician/ legislator, etc.  But she got back on track in the SOTU speech which set the much better tone).

But I also think that the "why is Beto getting more attention than Abrams or Gillum---> is so completely Bonkers.  It not because he is a white male as the media is portraying.  Its because he he has announced he is running for President and Abrams & Gillum has not.  (and there was more speculation about him running, because He does have 6 years in congress, where as Abrams & Gillum do not & Beto was in a much more Red State & Raised double the amount of the next closest Senate Candidate & had a record breaking campaign rally of Over 50,000 people.  Not to mention he does have the that Xfactor (notable since most politicians do not).

But the attention advantage is most appreciatively because he decided to enter the Presidential &  Primary & because of the x-factor quality.  And the reality is- Abrams is the other candidate involved in the 2018-2020 election cycle that also has that rare x-factor.  And if she jumped in the Primary, she would get just as much attention as Beto. 

The other odd thing regarding ppl complaining about Beto's media attention... over half of it is pointlessly negative (complains about not enough specifics yet, that he's a white male, etc). Luckily this will soon blow over as Biden inherited the Wrath (That was already a mild glimpse of what is to come on CNN early tonight- via a conversation regarding Biden & Anita Hill & were his comment today sincere, does it matter that he's never really address it before now, etc, etc.

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One other thought- I think Beto, Abrams, Pete all have an it-factor that comes from being younger and having that ability to connect better than most candidates. Granted each has a slightly different version (Beto's is more similar to Obama, Pete more similar to Bill Clinton & his ability to convey complex policy in a simplified manner, and Abrams being in between with a mix of both types). 

But although Gillum is a good politician and had some memorable debate moments- I've never really seen him in the same X-Factor category of Beto & Abrams.

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Calling Beto O'Rourke "Robert O'Rourke" is going to be the new version of calling the Democratic Party "the Democrat Party," isn't it? 

Yes. Rove has been doing it for a while now. Only he always uses the middle name too.

Robert Francis O'Rourke is pretty good as far as insults go.  It actually sounds pretty presidential.
as it will certainly make many think of-
Robert Francis Kennedy

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Facebook event RSVPs:

El Paso - 1.8K going + 4.5K interested = 6.3K

Houston - 2K going + 7.4K interested = 9.4K

Austin - 2.9K going + 11K interested = 13.9K

Obviously an imperfect measure, but it does lend some insight. Expect numbers to change as we get closer to Saturday.

Not much to go by on Twitter. But there was a tweet that people could respond to yesterday. The responses to that tweet are:
El Paso: 900
Houston: 1,500
Austin: 1,500

(hopefully 75% of those who attend are people who do not indicate do so on Twitter/Face Book.  (or that each person responding has 3 family member going with them... like a wife and two kids or something)

Any updates on the number Beto is expecting on Saturday?

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Any final predictions on attendance at Beto's rally in Austin (which I assume will be the largest of the 3)?

I'm optimistically predicting 25,000.

(with 11,000 in El Paso & 14,000 in Houston... This would give a total day of 50,000).

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Having a combined 30,000 for the 3 rallys is definitely a strong showing.  (granted I was optimistic or maybe naively expecting slightly higher numbers at the Austin Rally- but I guess timing is always a small factor- picking a time and date that will max out attendance, which is hard to accurately predict).

Hopefully these rally's will get decent coverage on Sunday shows.  But it seems like some of the cable media is almost forcing Beto to come on their shows in order to get good coverage (by not covering much of the rallies, egging on about lack of specifics, etc etc)....hich maybe what he has to start doing.  The rallys are especially good for early states & small states- but going on the cable show will help reach broader audience (and help gain more small dollar donors across the country).

---Or another strategy could be to continue slowly gaining wider grassroots support via rallies (while most candidates have to rely on Cable News town halls, going of shows, etc to gain supporters)...
Then start doing the media blitz in a couple of months when he has nailed down all of his policy specifics- and really try to break out of the pack at just the right time. 

Not sure which strategy would work the best?

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https://www.texastribune.org/2019/03/30/beto-orourke-signed-this-pledge-oil-money-did-he-break-it/

This article really says nothing other than Beto took normal contributions from individuals who worked in the oil and gas industry (at all levels, whether a rig worker or a president of the company).  Texas as more people who have a job related to oil & gas than any other state in the country.  Should those individuals be barred from contributing in their individual capacity?  And how would you even monitor not accepting money from individuals who work in specific industries? 

This also explains why Cruz & Beto were the top 2 recipients in 2018 elections... Because of the size of Texas and the amount of individual who work in a job that is related to oil and gas.

No candidate should ever bar ppl in their individual capacities from contributing to a campaign just because of what job they happen to have.