France 2012: the official thread

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more than the presidential, the legislative elections will be f... interesting. Vivement June 2012 !

My constituency is pretty interesting:

Fredo vs. Balkany's brother or something vs. common PS-Green candidate

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So it's starting to look highly possible that Sarkozy could be knocked out in the first round?  (When is that, by the way?)

April 22.

It was actually way more likely around the time of the DSKgate, where Marion was polling up to 24% and he was polling as low as Chirac-2002 levels. His support seems to have stabilized at a pretty low 23-25% but still pretty much above Marion's highs. That being said, nothing can be excluded, though I doubt Sarkozy will be knocked out. He's a formidable campaigner and once he starts campaigning seriously, my opinion is that he'll go back up.

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It seems her only remaining political goal is to become the French equivalent of Sarah Palin/Michele Bachmann.

It will be interesting to see how her race shapes up in La Rochelle and what kind of position she will demand, with her rumoured favourite being President of the NatAss

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Ifop and the CEVIPOF have done a few interesting demographic studies w/ regards to voting intentions.

Union Membership
base poll: H 28%, S 22%, LP 20.5%, B 13.5%, M 8%, J 3%
'Active' labour force: H 27%, LP 24%, S 18%, B 13%, M 8%, J 3%, V 2%
Unionized 'actifs': H 33%, LP 19%, M 14%, B 13%, S 12%, J 4%
Non-unionized: LP 28%, H 24%, S 22%, B 14%, M 4%, J 3%, V 2%

Detail by union:
CGT: H 38%, M 22%, LP 22%, B 9%, S 4%, J 3%
CFDT: H 37%, LP 17%, B 16%, S 13%, M 8%, J 5%
FO: H 31%, LP 25%, B 14%, S 14%, M 12%, NDA 2%
CFTC: S 25%, H 22%, LP 21%, B 19%, J 5%, M 4%, Poutou 3%
SUD: H 40%, M 33%, LP 13%, Poutou 5%, J 3%, B 3%, Arthaud 2%
UNSA: H 29%, B 24%, S 11%, M 11%, LP 10%, J 5%, Morin 5%, V 3%, JPC 2%

Runoff:
base poll: 57-43 H
'Active' labour force: 61-39 H
Unionized 'actifs': 73-27 H
Non-unionized: 52-48 H

Detail by union:
CGT: 87-13 H
CFDT: 68-32 H
FO: 71-29 H
CFTC: 52-48 H
SUD: 98-2 H
UNSA: 67-33 H

LGBT
base poll: Left-G 41%, Right-D 32.5%, EXD 19.5%, MD 6.5%
Hetero: G 40.5%, D 33%, EXD 19.5%, MD 6.5%
Non-Hetero: G 49.5%, D 22.5%, EXD 19%, MD 9%
Bi: G 47%, D 25%, EXD 20%, MD 8%
Homo: G 53%, D 20%, EXD 17%, MD 10%

Hunters
base poll: H 29%, S 22.5%, LP 19.5%, M 6%, Nihous 0.5%
All hunters: LP 25%, H 22%, S 16%, M 11%, N 7%
Regular hunters: LP 22%, H 18%, S 16%, M 14%, N 10%
Occasional hunters: LP 29%, H 29%, S 18%, M 7%, N 1%

Ancestry and Nationality
base poll: H 29%, S 22.5%, LP 19.5%, Centre-C 15.5%
Pieds-noirs: LP 28%, S 26%, H 26%, C 9%
Pied-noir ancestry: H 31%, LP 24%, S 15%, C 14%

Nationality of parents - incomplete data
Spanish: H 36%, LP 24%, S 21%
Italian: H 28%, S 24%, LP 23%
Portuguese: S 28%, H 27%
Polish: S 35%, H 10%
Algerian: H 45%, M 16%, B 13%
Moroccan: H 35%, V 28%
Tunisian: S 19%, V 18%, J 18%, H 9%

Public Sector
base poll: H 29%, S 22.5%, LP 19.5%, Centre-C 15.5%
Teachers: H 41%, M 15%, B 11%, S 10%, J 10%
Uni profs: H 38%, J 21%, S 12%
HS teachers: H 30%, M 20%, B 14%, S 13%
ES teachers: H 49%, M 12%, B 10%, S 8%

State public sector: H 30%, LP 15%, S 15%, J 10%, M 8%, B 8%, Abst 8%
Hospital staff: H 33%, S 18%, LP 18%, Abst 9%, M 8%, B 4%
'FP territoriale': H 38%, LP 13%, S 11%, Abst 10%, J 9%, B 7%, M 5%
State enterprises: H 34%, LP 24%, B 10%, Abst 10%, S 9%, M 6%, J 3%

Public sector employees: H 32%, S 20%, LP 18%, Abst 10%, B 7%, M 6%, J 4%
Public sector 'cadres': H 35%, S 19%, B 11%, J 8%, M 8%, Abst 4%, LP 4%
Teachers: H 36%, S 17%, M 12%, B 10%, J 10%, Abst 6%, LP 3%
Police/military: LP 37%, S 27%, B 11%, Abst 10%, H 8%, J 3%

Religion
Catholics: S 29%, H 24%, LP 22%, B 7%, M 3%, J 3%
Muslim: H 44%, ?
Protestant: H 33%, S 21%

Boutin @ 7% with weekly-mass goers.

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Moroccan: H 35%, V 28%
Tunisian: S 19%, V 18%, J 18%, H 9%

Ahn?!?!?!

V de Villepin?
WTF?

Villepin was born in Rabat, but I suspect a useless tiny sample size. Unless you folks know something about Franco-Tunisians/Moroccans I don't.

The Polish stuff seems weird too.

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People care more about boring polls in the most boring election than about my whole demographic stats?

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Sarkozy is basically running really far on the right, having failed to understand that FN voters in 2007 didn't vote for him because he could say xenophobic stuff, but rather because they liked his record in government. If you look at 2007 polls, you'll see that his big shazaam about an Immigration Ministry actually turned off FN voters, while concrete stuff like thre Gare du Nord riots turned them on.

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Just to illustrate my point:



At any rate, there is 0 chance that I'll vote for Sarkozy in the runoff. I might have voted for him, but he was nice enough to remind me that his cabinet includes Petainistes, that he's always a faux populist and now he's proven to me that he hates freedom and is a moralfag. I'll probably write in Rick Perry.

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I never read the news, but this headline was hilarious:

Le candidat Sarkozy défendra le gouvernement « du peuple, par le peuple et pour le peuple »

I see he's gonna full-blast populist on us.

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In real news, Hervé Morin will probably announce that he gives up tomorrow.

The only candidate I could support non-ironically? If Nihous doesn't run, I guess I'll be forced to vote Melenchon.

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If for whatever reason Le Pen doesn't get the necessary signatures to qualify, would Mélenchon take away most of her support since they're both fighting for the same working class section of the electorate?

Mélenchon's electorate is hardly heavily working-class. Besides, the type of working-class attracted to Mélenchon has, in general, little in common politically with those attracted to Le Pen (and vice versa).

Also,



Giscard's 1981 slogan vs.

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Ugh, they probably found my image too tasteless. Here it is.

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I'm not the poll guy, but Ifop's tracker today shows the narrowest first-round gap:

Hollande 29% (-0.5)
Sarko 27% (+1)
Marion 17.5% (+0.5)
Bayrou 11% (-1)
Melenchon 9% (+0.5)
Joly 2.5% (nc)
Villepin 2% (-0.5)

The runoff gap remains 56-44. It has barely moved up or down since they started this tracker.

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You clearly need to read-up on French political history if you think the platform of the left is a guide to what the left in power does. Guy Mollet, for sure, ended the Algerian war!

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Nominating Montebourg? Please stop saying words.

BTW, you're right, Antonio. Melenchon crused Marion. I'm going to vote for him.

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Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

Why does Hollande think he needs to poach FN voters? Can't the FN doing very well in the first round only benefit him?

Because of gaucho-lepenisme.

That's how Jean-Marie Le Pen made it to the runoff a decade ago- by poaching PS voters. Immigration/cultural policy is one half, the bipartisan economic consensus on soft neoliberalism another. (Resident French, please correct me if I missed something here)

... but the phenomenon of gaucho-lepenisme is nowhere near as widespread or determinant as people want to make us think it is. For starters, the bulk of the FN's working-class vote is mostly from the 3 in 10 who voted for the right in the 1970s, not the 7 in 10 who voted for the left. JMLP's 2002 performance, compared to his result in 1995 (less than +1% or so), was nothing spectacular. He only gained a few points, and in a fair number of areas - ironically some PCF or traditionally left-wing working-class areas - he lost votes in 2002 compared to 1995.

2002 was more some freakish aberration than any significant realignment of the FN vote or a spectacular FN surge. It really is unfortunate that everybody assumes they know a sh**tload about the FN, when in reality they only know the anecdotal 'evidence' and theories sprouted by a few in the media who clearly don't know sh**t about the FN or its history or its voters.

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Ifop now has the runoff gap down to 55-45.

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I will literally shoot the next person who continues to buy into the PCF>FN transfer lies.

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The Sarkobump (i.e. him pulling ahead in the first round) has so far only been reported by Ifop's Paris Match tracker (which also has him losing only 46-54 in the runoff). I'm no longer a Sarkozyst, but Ifop seems closer to reality, at least in the runoff.

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Down to 53.5-46.5 in the runoff according to Ifop, which, with CSA (?), seems to be the only pollster picking up such a Sarkobump.

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CSA is usually a terrible poster, though they seem to have been getting better these days.

BVA's poll also has Melenchon in third, placing ahead of Marion. Which is... doubtful.

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CSA is usually a terrible poster, though they seem to have been getting better these days.

BVA's poll also has Melenchon in third, placing ahead of Marion. Which is... doubtful.

I don't know. Today's IFOP 3-day rolling poll has him tied with Bayrou at 12...

He can be tied with Bayrou at this point, yes, but probably not Le Pen.

BTW, IFOP's crosstabs are showing a major Sarkozy recovery with 'ouvriers' from his old lows. Even his first round performance is getting healthier, clearly at the expense of Marion. It would be sweetly ironic if Sarkozy won on an electoral coalition which would have elected a leftie in the 1970s and if Hollande won (narrowly) on an electoral coalition which would have elected a rightie in the 1970s.

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What's with Sarkozy/Hollande voters?  Just statistical noise?

There's always been in most runoffs 0-2% of voters who claim to have voted for a candidate qualified for the runoff only in the first round and then voted for his rival in the runoff. I don't know who these people are, if they actually exist and why their voting habits are so weird. I would guess some really fickle people who have a Josh-Winston like change of ideology, or undecided voters who have a genuine change of mind, people who like to fool around, people who like Sarkozy but don't want him to win (or people who like Hollande but don't want him to win) or people who take this field of joke candidates as they are: jokes.

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If you look over precinct-by-precinct results, you realize that some such people do exist.

There are certainly a bunch of FN voters who don't vote for the FN candidate(s) qualified in the runoff either because they're lucid enough to realize that it's useless to vote FN in all but a few areas because they can't win; or because their first round vote was a protest vote and they vote seriously in the runoff for a guy who can win/least worst option.

But afaik, for the mainstream parties, in the few modern cases where they poll lower in the runoff than in the first round, it is usually due to changes in turnout resulting from changes in mobilization of voter bases or local factors.