The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 4

[Mr. Morden]

Amash has quit the Freedom Caucus:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/10/justin-amash-house-freedom-caucus-1359614

There has also been speculation Amash might challenge Trump in 2020 as a libertarian candidate, something he did not rule out a recent town hall.

“I’ve said many times, I don’t rule things like that out,” Amash said. “If you’re fighting to defend the Constitution, if you find a way to do that that’s different and maybe more effective, then you have to think about that.”

[Mr. Morden]

Schultz making staff cuts; says he’s still recovering from back surgery, and will have an update after Labor Day:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/448256-schultz-tells-campaign-hes-cutting-staff-amid-hiatus-report

Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, who is considering a 2020 presidential run as an independent, announced staff cuts to his campaign on Wednesday, according to a report from HuffPost.

The outlet, citing a source present at the meeting, reported that Schultz told his campaign team on Wednesday that everybody would be let go except those in senior leadership roles. 

An aide to Schultz would not confirm the layoffs but told The Hill that Schultz "is realigning his team as he moves into the next phase of his exploration."  
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"Today, I am feeling much better, and my doctors foresee a full recovery so long as I rest and rehabilitate," Schultz said in a statement. "I have decided to take the summer to do just that."

[Mr. Morden]

Abrams says she plans to make 2020 decision "soon":

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/stacey-abrams-hasn-t-ruled-out-running-for-president-1.4465361

Former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams said Thursday she has not ruled out running for another political office.

Abrams, who spoke at the Women's E3 Summit at the Smithsonian National Museum of African American History and Culture, said she has not yet settled on the next steps for her political career.

"I am not being coy when I say that I have not decided what I'm going to do next," said Abrams, the event's keynote speaker. "I'm not going to make a choice because I feel a sense of urgency from others. I'm going to make a choice because it's the right thing to do."

Abrams said she expects to decide soon.

[Mr. Morden]

A few more details on Schultz's decision to pause his presidential exploration, possibly for good:

https://www.inquisitr.com/5485060/former-starbucks-ceo-howard-schultz-takes-summer-hiatus-suspends-2020-campaign/

Schultz surprised his staff members earlier this week when he arrived unannounced at his campaign headquarters after months of not showing up. According to a source who was present at the meeting, Schultz then told his staff members of his plans to make summer cuts and his decision to let go of everyone except those in senior leadership positions. It appears very likely that Schultz will suspend his presidential campaign for good, but he has promised to delay the final decision until after Labor Day.
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Schultz told his staff members that he was closely watching the presidential campaign of former vice president Joe Biden, whose moderate and centrist views align with his own. The former Starbucks CEO maintained that if Biden didn’t win the Democratic primary, there was every chance that he would re-enter the field after Super Tuesday.

[Mr. Morden]

This is from last month, but I missed it at the time.  Geoffrey Fieger still not ruling out a presidential run:

http://www.deadlinedetroit.com/articles/22282/fieger_for_president_he_doesn_t_rule_it_out

Some of attorney Geoffrey Fieger's TV commercials have included this little tag: "2020 - A Clear Vision for America."

So does that mean Fieger plans to run for president against Donald Trump?

Fieger tells Deadline Detroit that he hasn't ruled out that possibility.

"I don't know after 22 people are in the race," he said Monday, referring to the crowded Democratic field. "I might. I'll have to see."

[Mr. Morden]

Abrams says she still might run for president this year, and “the fall” is her decision deadline:

https://www.metro.us/news/the-big-stories/stacey-abrams-on-the-state-our-nation

Q: Many people thought that you would be running. Is there still a possibility? 

Stacey Abrams: It is. No, it's still something I'm considering. I have always said I want to. I think that certainly, the fall is the deadline for making a decision, and that is what I'm looking at. But you know, I will say that I will run if I believe that there is value that I can add to the debate, and add to the contest, and if I believe I can win. But I am incredibly pleased with the caliber and quality of the candidates we have now, which is why I haven't thrown my name into the ring yet.

Kasich also says he still might run, though it’s not something he’s “thinking hard” about:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/magazine/john-kasich-i-think-members-of-the-republican-party-are-in-a-coma-right-now/2019/07/01/76cb4ae2-8c87-11e9-8f69-a2795fca3343_story.html

Q: What factors are you considering before you make the final decision?

Kasich: Whether there’s a path. I mean, I don’t have anything to add. I didn’t say anything that is any different than what I’ve been saying for the last year. You know, things are very volatile in this business, and you just cannot predict what might change.
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Q: What motivates you to be thinking so hard about running in the first place? What would you do differently from President Trump?

Kasich: Wait, wait, wait, wait a minute. You know, I’m not thinking hard about — look, there’s lots of things that I’m doing. I’m an idea guy. And I’m very interested in what’s happening with our country, what’s happening around the world. I mean, I just finished [reading] a chapter last night, a book by Edith Hamilton called “The Greek Way,” about the battle between the Persians and the Greeks. I now have finished [writing] my fifth book, and this book is going to be very surprising to people because it’s not about politics. I don’t spend my time sitting around thinking about this. I have a lot of things I think about — including the state of my golf game.

[Mr. Morden]

Amash has quit the GOP:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/04/politics/justin-amash-leaving-gop/index.html

[Mr. Morden]

Amash apparently saying he'll run for reelection as an Indy....which isn't by itself a denial of plans to run for prez, but would seem to cast doubt on them:

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1146845965841764352

Meanwhile, here's Mark Cuban's latest on his plans:

https://thelibertarianrepublic.com/political-parties-are-so-1800s-mark-cuban-on-parties-tariffs-ubi/

Q: The question that many have been itching to ask him is whether or not he’s planning to run for President.
Well?
Is he?

Cuban: “If I didn’t have kids, I would.”

Q: When pressed harder, he doubled down.

Cuban: “The very definition of bad parenting is running for President in this political environment.”

[Mr. Morden]

Amash not ruling out a presidential run, despite planning to seek reelection "for the moment":

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/amash-doesnt-rule-out-2020-bid-potentially-complicating-trumps-path-to-reelection/2019/07/07/c8be1314-a0c0-11e9-b732-41a79c2551bf_story.html

“I still wouldn’t rule anything like that out,” Amash said in an interview with CNN’s “State of the Union,” when asked whether he would seek the White House as an independent or a third-party candidate. “I have to use my skills, my public influence, where it serves the country best.”

For the moment, Amash said he plans to run for reelection to the House next year as an independent. He said is he “very confident” that he will win his Grand Rapids-area seat again.

A presidential run is “something people talk about all the time,” Amash told CNN’s Jake Tapper, but it’s “not something on my radar right now.” He added that he does not have a timeline for a decision.

[Mr. Morden]

Steyer reportedly told staffers at his organizations (Need to Impeach and NextGenAmerica) that he's going to run for president after all:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/tom-steyer-2020-run/593434/

Billionaire investor Tom Steyer, who in the last decade has been both the top Democratic donor in the country and the prime engine for pushing for the impeachment of President Donald Trump, appears ready to become Democratic candidate number 26. Last week in San Francisco, Steyer told staffers at two progressive organizations he funds, Need to Impeach and NextGen America, that he is launching a 2020 campaign, and that he plans to make the formal announcement this Tuesday.

But don’t take that to the bank yet—Steyer had told people to expect his presidential run in January, and he had even scheduled a trip to Iowa for a kick-off, only to change his mind in the final days before launch. That resulted in what was perhaps a first in presidential politics: A trip to Iowa to announce he was not running. Instead, Steyer hosted a town hall for his Need to Impeach group, which currently has 8 million members and in the space of two years has become the largest progressive-leaning organization in the country.
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Heather Hargreaves, the executive director of NextGen America and a central player in Steyer’s campaign planning, declined comment on his plans and on the meeting in which Steyer made the announcement to staff. “I can’t comment right now,” she told me Sunday night when reached by text.

[Mr. Morden]

WaPo also says that “two Democrats familiar with the discussions” say Steyer plans to enter the race, and that an announcement could be made Tuesday, but it’s not certain:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/billionaire-activist-tom-steyer-tells-friends-he-plans-to-enter-2020-presidential-race/2019/07/08/464fec06-a136-11e9-b8c8-75dae2607e60_story.html?utm_term=.9d9d126a85a8

The former hedge fund manager could make an announcement Tuesday, the people added, but a firm rollout plan is still being deliberated.

“You never know with Tom until he actually pulls the trigger, but he’s telling a lot of people he works with and trusts that he’s going to do it,” one of the Democrats said, when asked about the discussions. “He wants in.”
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Heather Hargreaves, a veteran Democratic field organizer who worked on President Obama’s 2008 campaign, is expected to manage the campaign, the people said. She is a top aide to Steyer and serves as executive director of NextGen America, a Steyer-founded advocacy group. Associates frequently describe Hargreaves as Steyer’s leading political strategist.

[Mr. Morden]

More on Steyer: He'll speak at Netroots Nation on Thursday, but whether that's part of a presidential campaign rollout or not is unclear:

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/billionaire-tom-steyer-may-enter-the-2020-field-as-rep-eric-swalwell-bows-out/

In recent weeks he instructed advisers to conduct polling and other research to gauge his prospects, people briefed on his preparations said. He has designated a longtime aide, Heather Hargreaves, as his campaign manager-in-waiting, and recorded a television ad that could air in the early voting states in the event he becomes a candidate. That launch, associates said, could happen as soon as this week.

Steyer hasn’t announced a political calendar, but Netroots Nation, the annual conference for the party’s left wing, said he would appear at its opening keynote address Thursday in Philadelphia.

[Mr. Morden]

Amash is speaking at Freedom Fest on July 20th, so conceivably we might learn more about whether a presidential run is in the mix for him based on his comments there:

https://freedomfest2019.sched.com/speaker/justin_amash.1zmoiima
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/07/justin-amash-libertarian-presidential-run

For now, Amash is only running to keep his seat—but the election won’t be until 2020, and he faces threats both from Republicans, who are preparing to primary him, and Democrats, who now see an opening to score a seat in Western Michigan. And he might be blazing another path. Next week, Amash is scheduled to make a high-profile appearance at Freedom Fest, where libertarian activists—and more importantly, high-dollar donors—will convene. (His speaker bio does little to quell the rumors: “Will he? Won’t he?…One thing is for certain, we are looking for a presidential candidate that embrace principles of liberty to the MAX. Is Justin Amash the one?”)

[Mr. Morden]

Sanford also did an interview on CNN today, in which he also stated that a presidential run for him is possible, and that his decision timeframe is “the next month”:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/16/politics/mark-sanford-considering-challenging-trump-2020/index.html

He said there is "no discussion of debt, deficit and government spending in Washington these days," when asked why he is considering a run.

"The President said we're not going to touch the very things that drive debt and spending," he said. "So I think that we're walking our way into one heck of a financial storm and there's no discussion."

Sanford said there is "more than enough commentary" about the President's "noxious" and "weird" comments, and his bid would instead focus on debt and spending.

[Mr. Morden]

Bill Kristol says he's hoping Dem. donors will give his organization $ to fund a primary challenger against Trump (though probably not Kristol himself):

https://www.thisamericanlife.org/678/transcript

Bill Kristol
Honestly, if I were a Democrat, I would call me up and say, here's a lot of money for a primary challenge-- and we have talked to a lot of Democrats about this, obviously-- against Donald Trump. I mean, that's actually the single best thing you can do to weaken Trump. You can help Elizabeth Warren, or Kamala Harris, or Cory Booker right now. But we don't know which of those will actually be a good nominee against Trump. The one thing you do know is if Trump has to spend money against the primary challenger, if he loses 32% of the vote in New Hampshire, which is entirely possible, and it's embarrassing, it would be helpful to weaken Trump.

David Kestenbaum
Wait, but is your goal to run somebody who's going to win the nomination and maybe the presidency? Or is your goal just to take down Trump?

Bill Kristol
Both. Obviously, the first would be the best. But I would regard the second as an adequate result, and I think actually an important result, if I can say.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanford has released this new campaign-style video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-9SeHQUVxg

In it, he plugs this website: https://www.marksanford.com

[Mr. Morden]

Sanford was on The View today, and said he'll "give it 30 days" to decide:

https://ijr.com/sanford-plans-to-give-it-30-days-before-officially-challenging-trump/

“I’m neither [in the race, nor out]. What I have said is I’ll give it 30 days and see whether, you know, energy and people and resources come my direction as I explore this over the next 30 days or not. And if they don’t, no. I’ll look for other ways of highlighting what I think is the most critical issue out there that’s not being talked about, which is debt, deficit, and government spendings for its implications in every one of our lives.”

[Mr. Morden]

A correspondent named Charlie Gasparino on Fox Business Network says people close to Howard Schultz are telling him that Schultz is still weighing a run, and that Biden’s drop in the polls since the June debate has made it more likely that Schultz will run (since Schultz probably wouldn’t run if Biden is the nominee):

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/howard-schultz-reportedly-hasnt-ruled-174015122.html

[Mr. Morden]

Amash on Sanford:

https://www.foxcarolina.com/news/politics/trump-critic-justin-amash-welcomes-potential-sanford-presidential-run/article_9acaa314-aa12-5c96-aa09-60d7382dae61.html

"My perspective is that the party is lost for quite a while and that this party system is corrosive, and I don't think it can be redeemed anytime soon," he added. "But it's good to have voices out there. And the more voices you have, the more likely a miracle could happen."

Amash again brushed off questions about his own presidential ambitions, saying he was focused on providing independent representation for his constituents in Congress.

He did rule out the possibility of running in the GOP primary as Sanford's running mate.

"I don't want to get involved in the Republican primary in that way," Amash told CNN.

[Mr. Morden]

Richard Vague did a long interview with Ali Velshi a few days ago, and here's the audio:

https://thephiladelphiacitizen.org/event-a-conversation-with-ali-velshi-and-richard-vague/

At about the 27:20 mark, Velshi asks him about where he is with his deliberations on whether to run for president.  But Vague just talks about his focus group activities and doesn't directly answer the question.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanford says he doesn’t think anyone is going to stop Trump from winning the nomination, but might run anyway:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sanford-mulling-gop-primary-donald-trump

“I always like to be real, and I don’t think anybody’s going to beat Donald Trump. That’s my personal opinion,” the former South Carolina governor and congressman said in an interview Monday with Fox News.

But Sanford, who last week announced he was taking 30 days to decide whether to launch a primary challenge against the president, said that if he runs, it’s not about ousting the president. At least not completely.
“I think it’s about trying to force a larger national debate and a debate within Republican circles,” he said.

Meanwhile, Abrams spoke before the NAACP about voter suppression today, but didn’t give any update on whether she’s going to run for president:

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/detroit-city/2019/07/22/stacey-abrams-detroit-naacp-convention/1799663001/

[Mr. Morden]

Sanford did an event in Charleston, SC on Thursday:

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/at-charleston-event-mark-sanford-says-he-would-be-willing/article_5ecfc6a2-afa0-11e9-8b3a-e7a0ef55e245.html

He said he would be willing to debate President Donald Trump.

He said he has been talking to people in both Iowa and New Hampshire, two key early presidential primary states where any candidate would need to win delegates.

And, in a subtle dig, he promised he would release his own tax returns if he decides to launch a Republican 2020 presidential bid of his own.

What the former South Carolina congressman and governor would not say at The Post and Courier’s Pints and Politics event was whether he is leaning toward running for president, or whether his next steps in politics will include an advocacy group or think tank to push the conversation around debt, deficit and government spending.

That’s what the coming month is for, he said multiple times when pressed about a potential campaign.

[Mr. Morden]

New interview with Amash here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqYsHxGneMw

At about the 19:10 mark, he’s asked about where he is in deciding on a presidential run:

Amash: Well I think what goes into the calculation is deciding and thinking about where I can use my skills and my influence best.

Then he goes on to say that he enjoys representing his community, but he does think about what other roles in government might make him most effective at affecting his agenda.

[Mr. Morden]

On Wednesday, Sanford said he'd decide within two weeks:

https://www.wltx.com/article/news/politics/mark-sanford-to-decide-in-two-weeks-if-hell-challenge-president-trump/101-f4d49b66-67b2-479a-a5bb-586800710576

[Mr. Morden]

Sanford keeps giving slightly different versions of his decision timeline.  Yesterday, he said “a couple weeks” and “end of summer”:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/aug/2/mark-sanford-aims-make-decision-primary-challenge-/

“To state the obvious, it’s a daunting — I mean, gargantuan, huge task that’s difficult to get your arms around,” Mr. Sanford said on MSNBC. “So I’m talking to a lot of folks about the nuts and bolts of how you would do that, and I’ve got a couple weeks still to go.”

As for a timeline on the decision, Mr. Sanford said: “Not end of September, [because] you’re kind of running out of time at that point, but certainly end of summer.”

Also yesterday, Sanford attended a GOP party event in South Carolina:

https://www.wistv.com/2019/08/03/silver-elephant-gala-draws-prominent-republicans-capital-city/

Also among the attendees at the gala was former South Carolina Congressman and Governor Mark Sanford, who is reportedly considering a primary challenge to President Trump. When asked if he was in fact running for President, or had made a decision, he smiled and said “not tonight.”

So far, it seems like Sanford’s presidential exploration is limited to his own state plus national media interviews.  I don’t think he’s gone on the road to New Hampshire, or anything like that.