2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Zaybay]

Huh, thats two now with Ds at that high of a margin. Still an outlier.....but Im starting to have second thoughts.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1057229426277146624

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1057229892427964416?s=19

Still remember when Atlas panicked about this race after Siena showed Delagao down 40-45.

BuT MuH RaP CaREer.

[Zaybay]

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-west-virginia-senate-race-tightens-texas-senate-race-remains-close-republicans-look-hold-three-house-seats-wv

West Virginia US Congress District 1

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=341, +/-5.5%

David McKinley (R-Inc) 57%, Kendra Fershee (D) 32%, 11% undecided

West Virginia US Congress District 2

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=344, +/-5.5%

Alexander Mooney (R-Inc) 47%, Talley Sergent (D) 39%, 10% undecided

West Virginia US Congress District 3

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=328, +/-5.5%

Carol Miller (R) 52%, Richard Ojeda (D) 45%, 3% undecided

Morrisey and Miller primed for the win.

I seriously am surprised you havent been kicked off the Congressional board at this point. At this point, you're just another Limo.

[Zaybay]

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-west-virginia-senate-race-tightens-texas-senate-race-remains-close-republicans-look-hold-three-house-seats-wv

West Virginia US Congress District 1

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=341, +/-5.5%

David McKinley (R-Inc) 57%, Kendra Fershee (D) 32%, 11% undecided

West Virginia US Congress District 2

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=344, +/-5.5%

Alexander Mooney (R-Inc) 47%, Talley Sergent (D) 39%, 10% undecided

West Virginia US Congress District 3

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=328, +/-5.5%

Carol Miller (R) 52%, Richard Ojeda (D) 45%, 3% undecided

Morrisey and Miller primed for the win.

I seriously am surprised you havent been kicked off the Congressional board at this point. At this point, you're just another Limo.

I didn't know that being a disciple of the bluenami cult was a requirement for being permitted on the congressional board.
Half of Bagel's statement is objectively true, Miller is favored to win. The other half is an embellishment, but it's certainly a slim possibility that Morrisey could win. Honestly, Bagel's concern trolling is usually about as tolerable and reasonable if not more so than your hackery.

I dont dispute every single poll that is shown, and I was clearly talking about Morrisey, not Miller.

[Zaybay]

I will say, if what is shown is true, its rather possible that maybe, just maybe, one chamber is taken.

[Zaybay]

Where the F are all my quality GCB polls? CNN? FOX? Pew? ABC/WaPo? Quinnipiac? Where are all of you people?

Did someone say more Texas polls?

We should poll Texas again just to make sure.

Oh, and New York.

New York? We’ve got plenty of those. Now Florida that is a place I’m curious about

Wait, you guys are looking at this all wrong. That CA governor race...maybe Cox can get into a single digit deficit!

[Zaybay]

Its D+8 guys
https://twitter.com/abc/status/1058931957999001600?s=21

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1059194100199682049

Someone asked "Missouri?  Florida?  Texas?"  He responded "Two out of those three, yes."

Probably TX and MO then. They already did FL recently.

[Zaybay]

Well, at least one pollster isnt herding to the 7-9 range.

[Zaybay]

So we have polls showing everything from D+15 to D+3 and even R+1? What the hell?

If we just look at the A-rated pollsters:

ABC/WaPo D+8
IBD/TIPP D+9
NBC/WSJ D+7
CNN/SSRS D+13

Thats a D+9.25 average, pretty good, I will say.

[Zaybay]

So we have polls showing everything from D+15 to D+3 and even R+1? What the hell?

If we just look at the A-rated pollsters:

ABC/WaPo D+8
IBD/TIPP D+9
NBC/WSJ D+7
CNN/SSRS D+13

I wonder if we will get a Fox, Quinnipiac or Monmouth today.

Most likely, it is practically the last day.

If I were to predict, Fox is around D+9(they have been steady), Q is on the higher range, and Monmouth is on the lower range.

[Zaybay]

Interesting that they have IN as a flip. Personally, I find that to be very odd, but hey, they are pundits, I cant give them too much flack.

[Zaybay]

Well!    CNN AND RASMUSSEN  HAVE THROWN DOWN THE GAUNTLET!  They both obviously cannot be right.  At least one of them should be sent to the ash bin of polling history with the Literary Digest Poll of 1936 that predicted Landon would beat FDR. It may develop they should both go there.

I do believe the Literary Digest made a human error.   I believe current errors may be deliberate.

I would say the poll that has a Positive Trump approval while everyone else disagrees is the wrong one.

[Zaybay]

You're damn right we already have 2020 recruiting news.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1075893126026403841

Wonderful news!

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1085934956289945600?s=21

Looks like Gallego has the establishment’s backing. Probably cakewalk primary if he declares.

Good to hear, hes the best candidate we have for that seat.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1085934956289945600?s=21

Looks like Gallego has the establishment’s backing. Probably cakewalk primary if he declares.

Good to hear, hes the best candidate we have for that seat.

But Atlas told me Gallego was too left-wing for Arizona and that ex-Republican and abuse mocker Grant Woods was the only candidate who could possibly even stand a chance against unbeatable titan Martha McSally!!!

Pretty sure no one said Grant Woods was anything other than the worst candidate we could run, but thanks for playing.

No, trust me. Go check the Atlas threads on AZ senate, like this one:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=309560.0

and:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=309202.0

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1085934956289945600?s=21

Looks like Gallego has the establishment’s backing. Probably cakewalk primary if he declares.

Good to hear, hes the best candidate we have for that seat.

But Atlas told me Gallego was too left-wing for Arizona and that ex-Republican and abuse mocker Grant Woods was the only candidate who could possibly even stand a chance against unbeatable titan Martha McSally!!!

Pretty sure no one said Grant Woods was anything other than the worst candidate we could run, but thanks for playing.

Are you kidding me right now

Who on Atlas said Woods wouldn't be an absolutely awful candidate?

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

Somebody akin to what you call a "garbage moderate" just won us the other AZ Sen seat, so Grant Woods would prob be a safe bet if he won the Dem primary.

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

He was.

Now, he's not.

Moderates have better chances of winning in AZ than die hard liberals.

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

Somebody akin to what you call a "garbage moderate" just won us the other AZ Sen seat, so Grant Woods would prob be a safe bet if he won the Dem primary.

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

He was.

Now, he's not.

Moderates have better chances of winning in AZ than die hard liberals.

Don't tell ON Progressive or Zaybay this lol.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

Democrats have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Theres more

[Zaybay]

Geez... *insert obvious Game of Thrones Joke about Last Name*

[Zaybay]

NY-15: Ruben Diaz Sr. iN

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/ruben-diaz-sr-run-congress-saying-hes-opposite-aoc

I really wanted him to run and would make a great Representative, he just has to get through the primary, could we have a HI-01 redux, where the most conservative candidate wins the primary

Gross

Please explain why, I think he'd be a great Congressman

The article you yourself linked has this as its sub-header:

The city councilman who drew fire for his inflammatory remarks about LGBT people says he will run to replace Rep. Jose Serrano.

[Zaybay]

Rematch underway:

https://twitter.com/Marie4Congress/status/1118129266179366913

Guess who (unsurprisingly) endorsed her:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1118319418453438465

Go Lipinski

Ehh, I guess House Dems have now blacklisted Kirsten Gillibrand  (not that it would help or hurt her in any way)

They would blacklist her.........for Lipinski?

[Zaybay]

Gotta agree with YC on this one, I dont think using Rauner in a district he won in 2018 will be an effective way for Casten to defeat Sanguinetti. Perhaps Healthcare or just plain old Trump will be more effective.

Edit: Wrong name, whoops

[Zaybay]

LOL Katie Hill was harassed by a bunch of old white climate change deniers at her Townhall yesterday. Consider this a boost to her reelection campaign. Not to mention the harassed her for supporting the Equality Act.

Some army the GOP has lol.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/29/blue-wave-democrat-katie-hill-faces-angry-voters-at-california-town-hall.html

Im pretty sure nobody cares.

[Zaybay]

IL-03: Newman (D) receives endorsements from key Democratic groups -

https://twitter.com/LA_Hagen/status/1125420220649299969

----

NY-11: Malliotakis (R) and Grimm (R) trade jabs ahead of possible primary -

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/alexislevinson/trump-2020-congress-grimm-rose

I guess the DCCC has to blacklist Emily’s List now .

[Zaybay]

Thats actually a rather surprising map. The entire district shifted by almost the same amount, 15 points. Des Moins shifted 15 points, and so did the farming areas, by almost the exact same amount. You dont usually see a shift like that.

[Zaybay]

Would Cocaine Mitch retire if the GOP loses the Senate in 2020?

Well, the thing is he would likely not know. He is up for reelection in 2020, and I kinda doubt he just suddenly retires and creates a special election.