Australia - 7 September 2013

[Hifly]

Go away, bigot.

If you have any complaints you should address them to the Western Australian Labor Party. You're also a bigot by default.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Your friendly neighbourhood dictator would like it to be known that he does, indeed, read this thread.

[morgieb]

I just can't wait to see the looks on the LGBT rights activists faces if Louise Pratt is defeated while Joe Bullock is elected instead of her. It would be hilarious.

Pratt is #2 on the ticket, Labor would REALLY need to  up if only one of them won.

[Hifly]

I just can't wait to see the looks on the LGBT rights activists faces if Louise Pratt is defeated while Joe Bullock is elected instead of her. It would be hilarious.

Pratt is #2 on the ticket, Labor would REALLY need to  up if only one of them won.

I'm expecting 4 seats for the Right and 2 seats for the Left in the State. On the Right I expect 3 Liberals and 1 National. The Greens already hold a seat and I'm hoping that their vote does not completely collapse so that they can retain theirs, and Pratt loses, although I understand that 2 Labor and no Green seems a bit more likely at this stage.

[RogueBeaver]

Piers Ackerman is also a cowardly jackass, he repeated Sattler's crap on Insiders- "a lot of people in the Canberra gallery have been saying the same thing"- and got chewed out by Cassidy. Meanwhile Milne and Willkie are getting impatient with this leadership stalemate, not that their opinions really matter anymore. Garrett reiterates that he won't serve under Rudd. Finally PVO tells us to look out for 3 things: a Rudd stalking horse, a faceless woman, and dead cat's polling bounce.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Piers has always been a wonderful combination of Conservative parrot and creepy cheerleader

[morgieb]

What does everyone make of Rudd's chances of returning?

I'd say 50/50 at this stage. Gillard's main hope is the support of Cabinet.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I know it's random and obtuse... but watch tomorrow.

[morgieb]

I know it's random and obtuse... but watch tomorrow.

So you think someone is gonna call a spill? Very interesting.

[minionofmidas]

Your friendly neighbourhood dictator would like it to be known that he does, indeed, read this thread.

Clearly the solution to this conundrum is to stop reading it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nielsen poll - still leaking tweets...

TPP
ALP: 43% (-3)
Coalition: 57% (+3)

Primary
ALP: 29% (-3)
Coalition: 47% (+3)

With Rudd as leader

TPP
ALP: 50%
Coalition: 50%

Primary
ALP: 40%
Coalition: 42%

I know people dislike Gillard, but I don't buy Rudd increasing the primary vote by 11%!

[Platypus]

I believe it, people are morons.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I believe it, people are morons.

Yup

I'm seeing a lot of the same denialism we saw from the GOP - the polls are skewed, manipulated by media owners to get the result they want...

I even saw people use the word 'sheeple' - seriously.

As opposed to working out why a Government delivering generally well-received policies (as I keep saying the carbon price is at even-money and more popular than the ALP) are losing to an opposition with no policies and losing a popularity contest to Tony Abbott...

[minionofmidas]

So... why is that?

Just due to the infighting, to the government seeming so very weak? That can't be all of it, surely.

[RogueBeaver]

I can buy a sugar high for Rudd right now. In a campaign once the "transition" happens and the Coalition throws the kitchen sink at him...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's really hard to nail down one single reason ... but the Government was weakening under Rudd by kind if resigning its mandate on climate change, then you had the coup which will have it's 3rd anniversary on Sunday (which was horribly managed externally) and the killer, Gillard seems to have an innate ability to say/do the wrong thing...

When she was Deputy PM she was INCREDIBLY popular and even after she got the job in less than brilliant circumstances she threw away a 10% lead to only win the TPP vote by a hair... Rudd has his role in that campaign but she's never really recovered from the 'real Julia' speech, the result of which left people saying 'then who the hell were you before?!' - then the issue over promising to not bring in a carbon tax, then doing it. I think her reasonings for changing course made sense to me, but it basically allowed this tide of mistrust and unease about her spill over. She had a moment of respite late last year but that's kind of it.

That's a long-winded way of saying, there's a set of systemic problems in the party, but considering the party is pursuing difficult but not unpopular policies (overall) - the issue is the Prime Minister and her political judgement.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the full AFR/Nielsen poll. Real story is a Lab male collapse (24% primary, 37% 2PP, 28% approval) with zero female gains. 35/61 disapproval for Gillard, 44/53 for Abbott. 50-41 PPM. Final tidbit: sub-30 primary vote for the first time in eons, at 29.

[Talleyrand]

The story in May 2014:

Labor out of power everywhere except ACT!

Amazing how quickly things have changed in Australia the last few years; it's hard to believe Labor was in power in every state as recently as 2008 and had a (then) incredibly popular Prime Minister in Kevin Rudd. As much as I prefer them to the Coalition, they will be living with the aftermath of their poor decisions the last few years for another decade at the very least...

[RogueBeaver]

Beattie wants Hawke to mediate, while no one knows what the real numbers are. Finally Gillardites are seeking to postpone a vote which would return the leader's power to appoint Cabinet back to caucus.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Beattie wants Hawke to mediate, while no one knows what the real numbers are. Finally Gillardites are seeking to postpone a vote which would return the leader's power to appoint Cabinet back to caucus.

It's going to be a turbulent two weeks, who knows what will happen?

[RogueBeaver]

Reminders that Rudd isn't really an option either, and of the defecting blue-collar voters.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Something struck me this afternoon - there's one very big reason why IF something were to happen it would happen on the final sitting day - is to prevent the Coalition the opportunity to move a no-confidence motion that the Independents could well support and trigger an election.

[RogueBeaver]

ACTU also has doomsaying polling, but they're still with Gillard.

[RogueBeaver]

Mixed ACTU signals: Oliver won't mention Gillard's name, just saying he's backing the government. But as Kelly noted in his editorial today, Camp Rudd can only win by wielding the sword.

[Knives]

I can't believe that she's going to lose, it's just so sad for Australia.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-US__fTZY0