2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yep, Lamb should win comfortably in November. The voter registration in the district is like 50/39 Democrat, and Lamb is just the more exciting and energetic candidate in this race.

The RNC should probably consider abandoning Keith here.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

More from the PA-17 poll-

Trump Approval stands at -7, 51/44% Disapprove

Very important to cast house vote as show of Trump support/opposition:

Supporters: 59%
Opponents: 73%

[Gass3268]

Latino Decisions Battleground Poll (61 most competitive seats):

Democrats 51%
Republicans 38%

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Junk poll. Minority numbers seem far more Republican in that poll than they could realistically be.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Junk poll. Minority numbers seem far more Republican in that poll than they could realistically be.

The Black and Native American numbers seem really off, especially the latter.

[BudgieForce]

Usually sub-groups in polls are somewhat off. The more important number is the topline.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Junk poll. Minority numbers seem far more Republican in that poll than they could realistically be.

The Black and Native American numbers seem really off, especially the latter.

Don't Natives in the Oklahoma/Texas part of the nation skew GOP?

[Gass3268]

Junk poll. Minority numbers seem far more Republican in that poll than they could realistically be.

The Black and Native American numbers seem really off, especially the latter.

Don't Natives in the Oklahoma/Texas part of the nation skew GOP?

Yes, but they wouldn't be included in this as these are battleground districts.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

What were the 61 Districts used?

[ON Progressive]

Junk poll. Minority numbers seem far more Republican in that poll than they could realistically be.

The Black and Native American numbers seem really off, especially the latter.

Don't Natives in the Oklahoma/Texas part of the nation skew GOP?

A lot of people who claim native heritage in those states are white people basing it off family stories (it's the same thing Elizabeth Warren is pinged for a lot by the right).

[Gass3268]

What were the 61 Districts used?

"2,045 registered voters were interviewed in the 61 congressional districts deemed most competitive by Cook, CNN and Crystal Ball"

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Junk poll. Minority numbers seem far more Republican in that poll than they could realistically be.

The Black and Native American numbers seem really off, especially the latter.

Don't Natives in the Oklahoma/Texas part of the nation skew GOP?

A lot of people who claim native heritage in those states are white people basing it off family stories (it's the same thing Elizabeth Warren is pinged for a lot by the right).

Agreed, I find it hard to believe full-blooded Native American descendants are voting Republican.

[john cage bubblegum]

It's a poll of 2000 people.  The Native American subsample is gonna be like 20 people.  You can't analyze anything from that.  Even the black subsample of like 240 people is gonna have a pretty significant margin of error.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's a poll of 2000 people.  The Native American subsample is gonna be like 20 people.  You can't analyze anything from that.  Even the black subsample of like 240 people is gonna have a pretty significant margin of error.

This is also true.

[john cage bubblegum]

It's a poll of 2000 people.  The Native American subsample is gonna be like 20 people.  You can't analyze anything from that.  Even the black subsample of like 240 people is gonna have a pretty significant margin of error.

This is also true.

I went and looked at the PDF release from this poll, and it appears that they got a 400 person subsample of Native Americans by interviewing them nationwide, as opposed to the other groups in the poll, which are contained within these 61 battleground districts.

So, that is a subsample big enough worth looking at, but it is going to include those more R-friendly Native Americans around the Plains region of the country.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021772134320877568
AHHHHHHHH YES LAMB

T O S S U P
O
S
S
U
P

[Doimper]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021772134320877568
AHHHHHHHH YES LAMB

T O S S U P
O
S
S
U
P

[Zaybay]

Junk poll. Minority numbers seem far more Republican in that poll than they could realistically be.

The Black and Native American numbers seem really off, especially the latter.

Don't Natives in the Oklahoma/Texas part of the nation skew GOP?

A lot of people who claim native heritage in those states are white people basing it off family stories (it's the same thing Elizabeth Warren is pinged for a lot by the right).

Agreed, I find it hard to believe full-blooded Native American descendants are voting Republican.

I find it a bit funny that our problem with a poll that shows Democrats with a lead of 13%....is that the minority numbers are too R-friendly.

[IceSpear]

I knew Lamb was going to be ahead, but I certainly did not think it was going to be a double digit lead in all models. Nobody did.

I wasn't necessarily expecting it, but it doesn't particularly surprise me either. The pundits are jokes for keeping it a toss up as long as they have.

And speaking of that, how come occasionally the pundits will release a laundry list of changes moving safe R districts to likely R, likely R ones to lean R, lean R to toss up...but will never move any toss ups to lean D? Last time I checked races arbitrarily deemed "toss up" are not exempt from political environment changes. Look how long it took them to admit Comstock is an underdog (some still haven't, lol.)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

OUCH!

In the Monmouth poll, 44% of people in PA17 have a favorable view of Conor Lamb, 46% don't know who Rothfus is...

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1021799143776239617

[Progressive Pessimist]

Slambdunk!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am anxiously awaiting for OH-12 to help draw that conclusion. If this is the case, OConnor should win, I am hopeful. Turnout in midterms are lower among Dems, though.

[AtorBoltox]

I am anxiously awaiting for OH-12 to help draw that conclusion. If this is the case, OConnor should win, I am hopeful. Turnout in midterms are lower among Dems, though.

Turnout is lower among the party who the incumbent President belongs to. In 2010 and 2014 this was the Dems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was talking about blacks who sometimes are economically depressed; however, the SCOTUS vacany has opened the door for more Latinos to come out due to the immigration issue