Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[MT Treasurer]

Thoughts on the county map for this race? Will it be similar to 2016, but with Abrams flipping a few counties (like Twigs and Dooly) in the Black Belt? I don’t think Kemp is the right Republican to win Cobb in a year like this.

[MT Treasurer]

Thoughts on the county map for this race? Will it be similar to 2016, but with Abrams flipping a few counties (like Twigs and Dooly) in the Black Belt? I don’t think Kemp is the right Republican to win Cobb in a year like this.

Clinton 2016 + Twiggs, Wilkinson, Peach, Chattahooche, Quitman, Webster, Baker, Mitchell, and Early.

Screven, Wilkes, and Meriwether are tossups.

Well, you’re certainly bullish on Abrams' odds. I assume you simply forgot to mention Dooly, right?

[MT Treasurer]

Kemp will more likely than not still win this, but boy, this result (especially the county map) should send chills down every GA Republican's spine.

[MT Treasurer]

The GA-SoS runoff is incredibly difficult to predict. I think Raffensberger wins 51-49 (perhaps a little closer than that), but it could really go either way.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, if when GA flips, it will be much more similar to VA than NC, though I’m sure all the pundits will treat it as a "true swing/purple/Toss-up" state like VA.

[MT Treasurer]

It would be hilarious if Barrow lost by more than Espy, but that’s probably not going to happen. Let’s not read too much into those numbers.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, I really don’t see Barrow losing by more than, say, 5-6%, especially after how close Espy kept it in MS. Barrow might not get Abrams numbers out of the Atlanta area, but he should make up for an underperformance there by doing better in rural GA. Gun to my head, Raffensperger wins 51-49, but this could definitely go either way.

[MT Treasurer]

Link to the AP results page? NYTimes/other results maps?

[MT Treasurer]

Polls have closed.

[MT Treasurer]

Johnson County: 79/21 GOP
Jeff Davis County: 82/18 GOP

[MT Treasurer]

Chris Carr (R) won GA-Attorney General by 2.6 (51.3-48.7) in November. So far, Raffensperger is outperforming him in pretty much all the rural counties that have reported. Still early, though.

[MT Treasurer]

Looks like Rockdale initial EV is 55-45 Barrow: time to call it.

Never really thought he was going to win, how did Abrams do in comparison?

She won the county 68/32.

[MT Treasurer]

Barrow County:

78% Raffensperger (R)
22% Barrow (D)

[MT Treasurer]

Gwinnett:

54.4% Barrow (D)
45.6% Raffensperger (R)

Obviously not enough for Barrow if it holds.

[MT Treasurer]

I want to make sure there's no unknown incredible turnout in metro Atlanta that I missed, b/c otherwise this one's quite over and it will not be all that close.  Northern Rural Georgia is a real massacre - you'd think Martin's Barrow's name starts with an O A.

[MT Treasurer]

Initial results show Raffensperger winning Cobb and Douglas, so yeah...

[MT Treasurer]

Henry County (Abrams +15): Raffensperger +4 with 10/37 precincts reporting

[MT Treasurer]

Newton County (Abrams +9) is in, and Raffensperger won it by 4. Definitely good news for Rs.

[MT Treasurer]

Raffensperger (R)                          498,522    60.8%
Barrow (D)                                   321,564    39.2%

820,086 votes, 51% reporting (1,356 of 2,634 precincts)

[MT Treasurer]

DeKalb is 100% in, Barrow won it 85/15. Better than Abrams, actually.

[MT Treasurer]

DeKalb is 100% in, Barrow won it 85/15. Better than Abrams, actually.

data glitch, not fully in

Ah, that makes sense.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s really the suburbs/exurbs where Barrow is underperforming badly. Cobb and Gwinnett in particular, but also Henry, Newton, Douglas, Forsyth, etc.

[MT Treasurer]

What’s going on with the public service commission race?

The Democrat currently has 45.61% as opposed to Barrow's 45.53%. Polarization and stuff.

[MT Treasurer]

That some people are still convinced that Georgia is less likely to flip in 2020 than Iowa is beyond me.

Also:

50.9% Raffensperger (R)
49.1% Barrow (D)

Changing this to 51.4-48.6 Raffensperger, but basically still a 51/49 kind of race. I don’t quite buy that there will be a dramatic Democratic collapse here.

Looks like this will turn out to be pretty accurate, no?

[MT Treasurer]

Abrams favorability: 44/44
Perdue favorability: 46/24 (+22)
Kemp favorability: 46/39 (+7)
Trump favorability: 39/55 (-16)

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-kemp-approval-ratings-the-rise-trump-still-underwater/5EDalXwOSNvonieS90ixEN/